MVP's, CYA's,

[Geech]

So the guys that you have at the top of the lists would inherently be better to build a winning team around?

 

Not necessarily. It sounds like Meph weighted each player's contributions according to his context. Rather than directly comparing baseball performance, Meph is trying to compare each player's value to his specific team.

 

I don't know that I care for the approach, personally, but I would love to know more about the weighting algorithm, if Meph has a link or the inclination to write about it.

[Mephistopheles]

i did it last season with graphs and stuff and posted it here.

 

its on my blog(which would be a good read if I actually used it).

 

if you ever wanted to know how i would post w/o the mean just read some of the posts there.

 

There are some things I added this year. Defense, bullpen, GRIT, etc.

[SABR Gamer]

C/O of me.

 

National League Cy Young Award:

1. Jake Peavy

2. Tim Hudson

3. Brad Penny

4. John Smoltz

5. Brandon Webb

6. Carlos Zambrano

7. Adam Wainwright

8. Matt Cain

9. Chris Young

10. Roy Oswalt

 

American League Most Valuable Player:

1. Magglio Ordonez

2. Alex Rodriguez

3. Grady Sizemore

4. David Ortiz

5. Vladimir Guerrero

6. C.c. Sabathia

7. Roy Halladay

8. Josh Beckett

9. Johan Santana

10. Carlos Pena

 

American League Cy Young Award:

1. C.c. Sabathia

2. Roy Halladay

3. Josh Beckett

4. Johan Santana

5. Fausto Carmona

6. John Lackey

7. Erik Bedard

8. Dan Haren

9. Kelvim Escobar

10. Joe Blanton

 

National League Rookie of the Year:

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Hunter Pence

3. Chad Billinglsey

4. James Loney

5. Ryan Braun

 

National League Most Valuable Player

1. Jake Peavy

2. Albert Pujols

3. Matt Holliday

4. David Wright

5. Hanley Ramirez

6. Tim Hudson

7. Brad Penny

8. Chase Utley

9. Derrek Lee

10. Prince Fielder

 

Most Valuable 50 Players

1. Jake Peavy

2. Albert Pujols

3. Magglio Ordonez

4. Matt Holliday

5. Alex Rodriguez

6. David Wright

7. Grady Sizemore

8. Hanley Ramirez

9. Tim Hudson

10. Brad Penny

11. Chase Utley

12. Derrek Lee

13. David Ortiz

14. Prince Fielder

15. Vladimir Guerrero

16. C.c. Sabathia

17. Jimmy Rollins

18. Roy Halladay

19. Chipper Jones

20. Alfonso Soriano

21. Josh Beckett

22. Johan Santana

23. John Smoltz

24. Miguel Cabrera

25. Carlos Pena

26. Edgar Renteria

27. Fausto Carmona

28. Aramis Ramirez

29. Carlos Beltran

30. Orlando Hudson

31. Curtis Granderson

32. Brandon Webb

33. Placido Polanco

34. Todd Helton

35. Torii Hunter

36. Aaron Rowand

37. Troy Tulowitzki

38. Jose Reyes

39. John Lackey

40. Ichiro Suzuki

41. Erik Bedard

42. Carlos Zambrano

43. Dan Haren

44. Brian Roberts

45. Russell Martin

46. Adam Wainwright

47. Matt Cain

48. Alex Rios

49. Mike Lowell

50. Jorge Posada

 

Braun put up ridiculous rookie numbers, no chance he finishes that low, and no chance he should, put Troy Tulowistki should be the ROTY. In the MVP though, there is no way to justify having Lee be ahead of Soriano or Ramirez, especially Ramirez who had the best offensive season on the team, with plus defense. Soriano also had plus defense, while Derrek had a slight down year on d. Also where the hell do u get at having guys on bad teams like Wainwright and Cain ahead of Posada who had amazing numbers on a playoff team, those are just wrong. By the way, there is no way you don't have a man crush on Lee seeing who you put him in front of...Ortiz? Fielder? Carlos Pena? Miguel Cabrera? Todd Helton? Jimmy Rollins? Vlad? Stop drinking ur Cubbie koolaid and be realistic, Lee didn't have a very good year and there are probably 40+ players on ur list alone who deserve to be in front of him for MVP. Also, I'm starting to think you have Magglio on your fantasy team because there is NO WAY IN HELL he has better number than A-Rod, and to even put it more in A-Rod's favor he plays in a tougher city, and his team made the playoffs, A-Rod slugged 50 points higher, hit 26 more home runs, nearly double the ammount Maggs hit, and had 17 more RBI's. Also Peavy couldn't even get his team into the playoffs, he's probably the 3rd most valuable player in his own division. The funniest pick of all is Albert Pujols ahead of Holliday, A-Rod, and Hanley Ramirez. Holliday put up better numbers, his team went to the playoffs, the world series (I know they dont count it, but some voters will be affected by it), and had the most outstanding run I have ever seen with him being the engine that powered that run. Holliday should be NL MVP, listen this isn't last year, Pujols doesn't belong anywhere near the top. I don't mean to be rude, but its like you split the players into groups of 10-15 and picked them out of a hat for ranks....these are the worst serious MVP picks I have ever seen.....wow.

[NewUserName]

So the guys that you have at the top of the lists would inherently be better to build a winning team around?

 

Not necessarily. It sounds like Meph weighted each player's contributions according to his context. Rather than directly comparing baseball performance, Meph is trying to compare each player's value to his specific team.

 

I don't know that I care for the approach, personally, but I would love to know more about the weighting algorithm, if Meph has a link or the inclination to write about it.

 

I kind of agree. couldnt you just go by who had the most runs produced in close situations. Down by 2 through up by 1. In theory a player who is putting up good numbers on a team that has bad offense/good pitching is pretty much doing the same thing. Its saying that the runs they are producing are more important based on their teammates around them.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

My only issue with Tulowitzki being ahead of Braun was his performance away from Coors Field- .720 OPS, 94 OPS+.

[Tracer Bullet]

My only issue with Tulowitzki being ahead of Braun was his performance away from Coors Field- .720 OPS, 94 OPS+.

 

Yes, that's one of my questions (though Meph posting that this is each player's worth relative to his team helped with most of my questions): Is park factored in?

 

As others have said, I care less about the "value" of Jack Peavy relative to the Padres than comparing Jake Peavy's performance to the rest of the players in the league in all aspects of the game. But I'd like to see more of the details of the model because it is interesting.

[fromthestretch]

Braun put up ridiculous rookie numbers, no chance he finishes that low, and no chance he should, put Troy Tulowistki should be the ROTY. In the MVP though, there is no way to justify having Lee be ahead of Soriano or Ramirez, especially Ramirez who had the best offensive season on the team, with plus defense. Soriano also had plus defense, while Derrek had a slight down year on d. Also where the hell do u get at having guys on bad teams like Wainwright and Cain ahead of Posada who had amazing numbers on a playoff team, those are just wrong. By the way, there is no way you don't have a man crush on Lee seeing who you put him in front of...Ortiz? Fielder? Carlos Pena? Miguel Cabrera? Todd Helton? Jimmy Rollins? Vlad? Stop drinking ur Cubbie koolaid and be realistic, Lee didn't have a very good year and there are probably 40+ players on ur list alone who deserve to be in front of him for MVP. Also, I'm starting to think you have Magglio on your fantasy team because there is NO WAY IN HELL he has better number than A-Rod, and to even put it more in A-Rod's favor he plays in a tougher city, and his team made the playoffs, A-Rod slugged 50 points higher, hit 26 more home runs, nearly double the ammount Maggs hit, and had 17 more RBI's. Also Peavy couldn't even get his team into the playoffs, he's probably the 3rd most valuable player in his own division. The funniest pick of all is Albert Pujols ahead of Holliday, A-Rod, and Hanley Ramirez. Holliday put up better numbers, his team went to the playoffs, the world series (I know they dont count it, but some voters will be affected by it), and had the most outstanding run I have ever seen with him being the engine that powered that run. Holliday should be NL MVP, listen this isn't last year, Pujols doesn't belong anywhere near the top. I don't mean to be rude, but its like you split the players into groups of 10-15 and picked them out of a hat for ranks....these are the worst serious MVP picks I have ever seen.....wow.

 

Perhaps if you read through the thread you'd see how he went about putting these lists together instead of making incorrect assumptions regarding his method.

[NewUserName]

I dont agree with all of the conclusions. I think LoK has done a solid job of explaining how he got there. I think his list makes for interesting discussion.

[Soul]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

[Keener98]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

 

Im guessing it goes back to the team again. Maggs runs were more valuable to his team than Arods were to the Yankees, since the Yankees had a better offense around him. I think that is where Meph is making his argument for Maggs being the most Valuable.

[Soul]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

 

Im guessing it goes back to the team again. Maggs runs were more valuable to his team than Arods were to the Yankees, since the Yankees had a better offense around him. I think that is where Meph is making his argument for Maggs being the most Valuable.

 

Alright. So this is kind of a...."I have a grading system and this is out it came out" thing.

 

That's cool.

[Keener98]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

 

Im guessing it goes back to the team again. Maggs runs were more valuable to his team than Arods were to the Yankees, since the Yankees had a better offense around him. I think that is where Meph is making his argument for Maggs being the most Valuable.

 

Alright. So this is kind of a...."I have a grading system and this is out it came out" thing.

 

That's cool.

 

Well its really a system of taking everything into account, instead of looking at 1 category like most of the voters will do. Meph is discussing the most valuable player, not necessarily the best player in the league. I hope Im describing this right, and not speaking wrongly for Meph.

[pitchcs]

I'm all for everyone's opinion, but that list is just plain wacky.

[Keener98]

I'm all for everyone's opinion, but that list is just plain wacky.

 

Not if you take everything into account, its really not.

[Tracer Bullet]

I'm all for everyone's opinion, but that list is just plain wacky.

 

Not if you take everything into account, its really not.

 

I hope I'm not speaking out of turn, but I think what you meant is - if you accept or at least acknowledge all of the premises, it's not wacky. I think it's certainly far for someone to say the lists are wacky because they don't accept the premises.

 

For example, it would have been fairly easy for the Tigers to replace Maggs with a guy like Raburn and it wouldn't have changed their outcome (not making the playoffs). But if you take ARod off the Yankees roster, who replaces him and his production at 3B? I'm no expert on the Yankees farm system, but I think the drop-off results in them missing the playoffs.

 

So who was more valuable to their team?

 

Disclaimer: I'm not necessarily saying that this line of thinking carries the day, I'm just pointing out that the argument could be made.

[Mephistopheles]

Braun put up ridiculous rookie numbers, no chance he finishes that low, and no chance he should, put Troy Tulowistki should be the ROTY. In the MVP though, there is no way to justify having Lee be ahead of Soriano or Ramirez, especially Ramirez who had the best offensive season on the team, with plus defense. Soriano also had plus defense, while Derrek had a slight down year on d. Also where the hell do u get at having guys on bad teams like Wainwright and Cain ahead of Posada who had amazing numbers on a playoff team, those are just wrong. By the way, there is no way you don't have a man crush on Lee seeing who you put him in front of...Ortiz? Fielder? Carlos Pena? Miguel Cabrera? Todd Helton? Jimmy Rollins? Vlad? Stop drinking ur Cubbie koolaid and be realistic, Lee didn't have a very good year and there are probably 40+ players on ur list alone who deserve to be in front of him for MVP. Also, I'm starting to think you have Magglio on your fantasy team because there is NO WAY IN HELL he has better number than A-Rod, and to even put it more in A-Rod's favor he plays in a tougher city, and his team made the playoffs, A-Rod slugged 50 points higher, hit 26 more home runs, nearly double the ammount Maggs hit, and had 17 more RBI's. Also Peavy couldn't even get his team into the playoffs, he's probably the 3rd most valuable player in his own division. The funniest pick of all is Albert Pujols ahead of Holliday, A-Rod, and Hanley Ramirez. Holliday put up better numbers, his team went to the playoffs, the world series (I know they dont count it, but some voters will be affected by it), and had the most outstanding run I have ever seen with him being the engine that powered that run. Holliday should be NL MVP, listen this isn't last year, Pujols doesn't belong anywhere near the top. I don't mean to be rude, but its like you split the players into groups of 10-15 and picked them out of a hat for ranks....these are the worst serious MVP picks I have ever seen.....wow.

 

I know very well that the voting won't turn out this way. This is just how I would vote. Braun's offense has been amazing, but his defense is historically bad for a 3B. It's to the point where it matters so much mediocre players are close to his level.

 

At no point did I say these rankings reflect how good each player is or even how many runs each guy produced. I have no doubt that Holliday produced more runs than Pujols (about 86 to 77). I have no doubt that Rodriguez produced more runs than Ordonez (97 to 94). I have no doubt that Oswalt produced more runs on the mound than Zambrano and Wainright (60 to 39, 38 respectively). I do believe that the runs created by the players who produced less runs caused more wins for their team. That's the whole point of the rankings. I can convert these to world series ring probability added, but you're not going to like the rankings, here you go:

 

3.6% Alex Rodriguez

3.6% David Ortiz

3.3% Josh Beckett

2.7% David Wright

2.6% Mike Lowell

2.4% Jorge Posada

2.2% Carlos Beltran

2.1% Chien-ming Wang

2.1% Jose Reyes

2.0% Matt Holliday

 

The whole point of the rankings I gave say this. If the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols they would be x in wins worse. If the Rockies lost Matt Holliday they would be y in wins worse. x > y, so Pujols means more to the Cardinals than Holliday to the Rockies.

 

Yes, that's one of my questions (though Meph posting that this is each player's worth relative to his team helped with most of my questions): Is park factored in?

 

Of course, but not the way you guys would think. VORP is used here. VORP is not something that says how many runs he produced on a nuetral field. In the case of Tulo, sure he hit a lot better at home, but he produced a lot more than an average guy would at coors. Production over average would go something like this Tulo Production in Runs - League Average Production in Runs for a team who plays 1/2 games at Coors (well they use PAs but Ill ignore that). So really all we need to find our neutral production ratings is the run factor. Nothing else matters. If say Tulo produces 20 runs on the road, 40 runs at home. An average guy produces say 50 runs a season and the run factor of coors is 1.20, then tulos production over average would be 20 + 40 - 25 - 25*(1.2) = +5. Tulo actually produced below average on the road, but his value at home outweighed it enough to make him a net positive player.

[Mephistopheles]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

 

Im guessing it goes back to the team again. Maggs runs were more valuable to his team than Arods were to the Yankees, since the Yankees had a better offense around him. I think that is where Meph is making his argument for Maggs being the most Valuable.

 

Alright. So this is kind of a...."I have a grading system and this is out it came out" thing.

 

That's cool.

 

Well its really a system of taking everything into account, instead of looking at 1 category like most of the voters will do. Meph is discussing the most valuable player, not necessarily the best player in the league. I hope Im describing this right, and not speaking wrongly for Meph.

 

This is true. For the third time: These rankings do not rank best players in the league.

[jersey cubs fan]

I like the idea of a postseason CYA award, I'm guessing it should go to a manager or executive. Who did a great job of covering their backside this year? I would vote for Cashman, who I believe has done a great job avoiding all the attention regarding the Yankees postseason losses by taking every opportunity to comment on Torre's future.

[Soul]

OK, I don't run numbers because it bores me but can a serious case be made for Magglio over ARod for AL MVP?

 

Keeping in mind, Magglio's efforts didn't do much as his team sunk badly out of the race, and ARod's efforts spearheaded a pretty good comeback by the Yanks that landed them into the playoffs.

 

MVP votes usually always go to a player on a team that made the playoffs. Rightly or wrongly, that's an accepted axiom among many voters.

 

Im guessing it goes back to the team again. Maggs runs were more valuable to his team than Arods were to the Yankees, since the Yankees had a better offense around him. I think that is where Meph is making his argument for Maggs being the most Valuable.

 

Alright. So this is kind of a...."I have a grading system and this is out it came out" thing.

 

That's cool.

 

Well its really a system of taking everything into account, instead of looking at 1 category like most of the voters will do. Meph is discussing the most valuable player, not necessarily the best player in the league. I hope Im describing this right, and not speaking wrongly for Meph.

 

This is true. For the third time: These rankings do not rank best players in the league.

 

Cool. I'm all for new & different stuff. I'd still take ARod for MVP this year 8-)

[SouthSideRyan]

You can disagree with his methodology or his results, but saying his rankings are skewed by Cub favortism couldn't be further from the truth.

[Mephistopheles]

Yeah why would I want to rank Pujols second?

[SABR Gamer]

I understand more now what your saying, but could you explain to me how D-Lee mattered more to the Cubs than Soriano and Ramirez, and how did Soriano matter more to the Cubs than Ramirez. I just don't understand how Ramirez had the least impact of the three.

[Soul]

I understand more now what your saying, but could you explain to me how D-Lee mattered more to the Cubs than Soriano and Ramirez, and how did Soriano matter more to the Cubs than Ramirez. I just don't understand how Ramirez had the least impact of the three.

 

ARam matters more to *me* than Soriano 8-)

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Yeah why would I want to rank Pujols second?

 

 

Or giving love to Wainwright. It's nice to see you acknowledged his performance this year.

[bukie]

Curious where the highest rated reliever is in your metric, and whether or not it happened to be Marmol.