NLDS: Gm 1 Cubs (Z!) @ DBacks (Webb), 9:07pm, TBS, WGN Radio

[ctcf]

Paging Davhern...

[CubmanPi]

Paging Davhern...

srsly

[Exile on Waveland]

I agree with Omar.

 

If a batter hits the ball hard for an entire season, but has nothing to show for it, do I care? No.

 

It's about numbers and performance. The Cubs scored one run. It doesn't matter how it happened, because all that counts is the fact that they only got one run.

 

Extra points aren't awarded for effort.

 

Can't ask for more than hitting it on the screws, especially against a top tier pitcher. No batter will hit the ball hard for an entire season but have nothing to show for it but it can happen over the course of one game (or 5 games, even). Things even out over the course of a season and the numbers will be a good reflection. No one was awarding anything about effort, just commenting that the Cubs had some good swings on the ball but, sadly, they were at fielders. It does matter how it happens if you want to improve from game to game and work on fixing problems

 

Exactly. Hitting the ball hard is all you can ask of a batter. In fact, if somehow a batter did hit the ball hard every at bat the whole season but hit .000, I'd bring him back the next year.

[UMFan83]

Nothing to worry about guys. I expected the Cubs to lose this game and win the next 3 and so far my prediction is correct. Keep the faith, their lineup is garbage so as long as we can score runs we will win.

[CubmanPi]

Nothing to worry about guys. I expected the Cubs to lose this game and win the next 3 and so far my prediction is correct. Keep the faith, their lineup is garbage so as long as we can score runs we will win.

I agree that their lineup is garbage, but that garbage lineup, in 163 games, has 6 more wins and 22 more HRs than our much better lineup.

 

EDIT - Also, when do we decide it's time to shuffle the rotation? I understand it was a late game and all last night, but still.

[gflore34]

Tonight' game thread has yet to be posted but, the name of the game tonight has to be patience. Davis has issued 95 BB in 192 and 2/3 IP, if you take a few pitches you'll get some base runners and get ahead in the count which means you're more likely to get something good to hit. If the Cubs take this approach they'll crush Davis tonight.

[Fro]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

[UMFan83]

Nothing to worry about guys. I expected the Cubs to lose this game and win the next 3 and so far my prediction is correct. Keep the faith, their lineup is garbage so as long as we can score runs we will win.

I agree that their lineup is garbage, but that garbage lineup, in 163 games, has 6 more wins and 22 more HRs than our much better lineup.

 

EDIT - Also, when do we decide it's time to shuffle the rotation? I understand it was a late game and all last night, but still.

 

Their lineup scored 40 less runs than us all year and is missing 2 of its players (Chad Tracy and Orlando Hudson)

[UMFan83]

We are clinching on Sunday at Wrigley. I refuse to look at it any other way until it is impossible to do so.

[CubColtPacer]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

 

Two things:

 

1) If the wind is howling out and Webb is pitching, that's a very bad thing. He's going to keep the ball down more than any pitcher the Cubs send down there, which means the Diamondbacks are going to hit more home runs than the Cubs in that scenario.

 

2) Thankfully, Webb is not the game 4 starter. Micah Owings is, and he is a flyball pitcher. If the wind is blowing out with Owings on the mound, that should be advantage Cubs.

[CuseCubFan69]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

 

Two things:

 

1) If the wind is howling out and Webb is pitching, that's a very bad thing. He's going to keep the ball down more than any pitcher the Cubs send down there, which means the Diamondbacks are going to hit more home runs than the Cubs in that scenario.

 

2) Thankfully, Webb is not the game 4 starter. Micah Owings is, and he is a flyball pitcher. If the wind is blowing out with Owings on the mound, that should be advantage Cubs.

 

Until Owings comes up to hit!

[CubmanPi]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

 

Two things:

 

1) If the wind is howling out and Webb is pitching, that's a very bad thing. He's going to keep the ball down more than any pitcher the Cubs send down there, which means the Diamondbacks are going to hit more home runs than the Cubs in that scenario.

 

2) Thankfully, Webb is not the game 4 starter. Micah Owings is, and he is a flyball pitcher. If the wind is blowing out with Owings on the mound, that should be advantage Cubs.

 

Until Owings comes up to hit!

My thoughts exactly.

[CubColtPacer]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

 

Two things:

 

1) If the wind is howling out and Webb is pitching, that's a very bad thing. He's going to keep the ball down more than any pitcher the Cubs send down there, which means the Diamondbacks are going to hit more home runs than the Cubs in that scenario.

 

2) Thankfully, Webb is not the game 4 starter. Micah Owings is, and he is a flyball pitcher. If the wind is blowing out with Owings on the mound, that should be advantage Cubs.

 

Until Owings comes up to hit!

My thoughts exactly.

 

As much as Owings scares me with the bat, I'd still take the Cubs power hitters with Owings on the mound rather than the Diamondbacks power hitters with Z on the mound in a game where the wind is howling out.

[David]

As stated earlier, Lilly is 9-1 following a Cubs loss this year.

 

If Hill gets any sort of offensive support, we can take G3.

 

Would set up another Webb vs Z, in Wrigley on Sunday.

 

 

Gotta look at things positively... but man its hard after not taking advantage of the opportunities we had to win tonight.

 

Game 4 looks good on paper... Webb is only 2-3 in day games and the wind is going to be howling out according to Sunday's forecast.

 

Two things:

 

1) If the wind is howling out and Webb is pitching, that's a very bad thing. He's going to keep the ball down more than any pitcher the Cubs send down there, which means the Diamondbacks are going to hit more home runs than the Cubs in that scenario.

 

2) Thankfully, Webb is not the game 4 starter. Micah Owings is, and he is a flyball pitcher. If the wind is blowing out with Owings on the mound, that should be advantage Cubs.

 

There's a pretty good chance that if the D'Backs are down 2-1, they'll go with Webb on short rest rather than Owings, don't you think?

[Guest]

at least someone agrees with me:

 

from BP:

 

Lou Piniella took some criticism for removing Carlos Zambrano, who was pitching well, after six innings to bring in Marmol. Piniella has designs on bringing Zambrano back for Game Four on Sunday, and wanted to avoid having his ace work too deep into last night’s game. Beating up Piniella for this is ridiculous. It’s results-based analysis. On a per-inning basis, Marmol pitched circles around Zambrano this season, and the difference between a fresh Marmol and a six-innings-in Zambrano is greater than their statistics indicate. By making the switch, Piniella was upgrading the pitcher on the mound and setting up the back of the series. That it didn’t work out is just one of those things, but the decision was not only defensible, it was optimal.

 

Piniella, frankly, had a great night, from starting Geovany Soto behind the plate to using Jacque Jones in the two hole to letting Zambrano swing away in the fifth. Soto is better than Jason Kendall at batting and throwing, and whatever game-management or defensive edges Kendall may have over the rookie, those edges don’t mean much compared to what Soto provides.

 

Letting Zambrano swing was one of those decisions that probably goes unnoticed. After Mark Reynolds’ throwing error gave the Cubs a runner on second and no one out, down a run, Zambrano stepped up. For probably 75 percent of the managers around baseball, this would be a bunting situation; get the tying run to third with less than two outs. Even a good hitter for a pitcher, like Zambrano, would normally be asked to lay one down.

 

In this case, however, swinging away was a terrific play. The Cubs were going to need at least two runs to win the game, making a one-run strategy limiting. Zambrano, a left-handed batter against the right-handed groundballer, was a better than good bet to hit a ground ball to the right side that would advance the runner anyway. If Zambrano found his way on base, the Cubs would have a rally underway with the top of their lineup up. Finally, the cost—the possible loss of a base if Zambrano didn’t advance the runner—would be tiny when measured against all of the benefit.

 

See, what never gets discussed is that the knee-jerk pitcher sacrifice isn’t a one-run strategy, and isn’t a positive attempt to generate a run. It’s a one-out strategy, designed to minimize the damage a pitcher can do at the plate. When a pitcher comes up with a runner on first and less than two outs, the reason he bunts is simple: to stay out of the double play. A typical pitcher will strike out often, and when he doesn’t, he’ll hit a weak ground ball somewhere. It’s the double-play threat that drives the reflexive bunting. This is, in fact, the correct approach to minimize the damage a pitcher will do.

 

In non-DP situations—runner on second, less than two out—pitchers should almost never bunt unless the runner at second is the tying run, the game is in the sixth or later, and the likelihood of a strikeout is high. Trading even a 20 percent chance of a baserunner for the benefit of moving up a runner from second to third is a bad trade-off. Better to let the pitcher swing away, risking a strikeout while potentially getting a baserunner, with the runner possibly advancing anyway on a weak grounder to first or second.

 

Piniella’s decision was made easier by having Zambrano at the plate, but it would have been sensible with Ted Lilly up there was well. It didn’t work out—Zambrano lined out to Stephen Drew at shortstop, and the Cubs went on to not score—but it was the right decision. As a manager, all you can do is keep making the right decisions. The rest is out of your control.

[FergieJ31]

at least someone agrees with me:

 

from BP:

 

Lou Piniella took some criticism for removing Carlos Zambrano, who was pitching well, after six innings to bring in Marmol. Piniella has designs on bringing Zambrano back for Game Four on Sunday, and wanted to avoid having his ace work too deep into last night’s game. Beating up Piniella for this is ridiculous. It’s results-based analysis. On a per-inning basis, Marmol pitched circles around Zambrano this season, and the difference between a fresh Marmol and a six-innings-in Zambrano is greater than their statistics indicate. By making the switch, Piniella was upgrading the pitcher on the mound and setting up the back of the series. That it didn’t work out is just one of those things, but the decision was not only defensible, it was optimal.

 

Piniella, frankly, had a great night, from starting Geovany Soto behind the plate to using Jacque Jones in the two hole to letting Zambrano swing away in the fifth. Soto is better than Jason Kendall at batting and throwing, and whatever game-management or defensive edges Kendall may have over the rookie, those edges don’t mean much compared to what Soto provides.

 

Letting Zambrano swing was one of those decisions that probably goes unnoticed. After Mark Reynolds’ throwing error gave the Cubs a runner on second and no one out, down a run, Zambrano stepped up. For probably 75 percent of the managers around baseball, this would be a bunting situation; get the tying run to third with less than two outs. Even a good hitter for a pitcher, like Zambrano, would normally be asked to lay one down.

 

In this case, however, swinging away was a terrific play. The Cubs were going to need at least two runs to win the game, making a one-run strategy limiting. Zambrano, a left-handed batter against the right-handed groundballer, was a better than good bet to hit a ground ball to the right side that would advance the runner anyway. If Zambrano found his way on base, the Cubs would have a rally underway with the top of their lineup up. Finally, the cost—the possible loss of a base if Zambrano didn’t advance the runner—would be tiny when measured against all of the benefit.

 

See, what never gets discussed is that the knee-jerk pitcher sacrifice isn’t a one-run strategy, and isn’t a positive attempt to generate a run. It’s a one-out strategy, designed to minimize the damage a pitcher can do at the plate. When a pitcher comes up with a runner on first and less than two outs, the reason he bunts is simple: to stay out of the double play. A typical pitcher will strike out often, and when he doesn’t, he’ll hit a weak ground ball somewhere. It’s the double-play threat that drives the reflexive bunting. This is, in fact, the correct approach to minimize the damage a pitcher will do.

 

In non-DP situations—runner on second, less than two out—pitchers should almost never bunt unless the runner at second is the tying run, the game is in the sixth or later, and the likelihood of a strikeout is high. Trading even a 20 percent chance of a baserunner for the benefit of moving up a runner from second to third is a bad trade-off. Better to let the pitcher swing away, risking a strikeout while potentially getting a baserunner, with the runner possibly advancing anyway on a weak grounder to first or second.

 

Piniella’s decision was made easier by having Zambrano at the plate, but it would have been sensible with Ted Lilly up there was well. It didn’t work out—Zambrano lined out to Stephen Drew at shortstop, and the Cubs went on to not score—but it was the right decision. As a manager, all you can do is keep making the right decisions. The rest is out of your control.

 

Great analysis. I agree with every word.

[jersey cubs fan]

Lots of words don't mean it's right.

 

If he was going to sit him down early, he should have pinch hit his sub 593 OPS pitcher for Ward and his 963 OPS with the bases loaded and the only big inning chance of the night.

 

Plus, Marmol is most likely not the same Marmol from midseason. Lou ran him into the ground with an insane amount of work. He got rocked in Florida and Arizona for a reason.

 

I think it's funny he gets praised for actually using the right catcher.

[CubColtPacer]

Lots of words don't mean it's right.

 

If he was going to sit him down early, he should have pinch hit his sub 593 OPS pitcher for Ward and his 963 OPS with the bases loaded and the only big inning chance of the night.

 

Plus, Marmol is most likely not the same Marmol from midseason. Lou ran him into the ground with an insane amount of work. He got rocked in Florida and Arizona for a reason.

 

I think it's funny he gets praised for actually using the right catcher.

 

I think 2 outings is a little small for declaring he's not the same. In fact, it's just as likely that Marmol had too much rest before each outing and was too strong (he had 3 days of rest before the Florida appearance and 2 days before last night). His stuff wasn't bad at all last night, he was just overthrowing and missing badly with his slider because of that. The Diamondbacks were sitting on his fastball.

 

The point is, it's not known for sure right now what was the reason for Marmol's bad outing, and it certainly couldn't be known to Lou when he made the decision last night. He put in a pitcher who had allowed runs in 1 of his last 20 outings. There wasn't any reason to believe that Marmol would not be effective-one 2 home run by Miguel Cabrera doesn't change a couple months of work.

 

I agree with the Ward comment.

 

As for the catcher thing, it was a decision that was definitely questioned by parts of the media. It makes sense that they would chime with their opinion that he made the right decision.

[TruffleShuffle]

Lots of words don't mean it's right.

 

If he was going to sit him down early, he should have pinch hit his sub 593 OPS pitcher for Ward and his 963 OPS with the bases loaded and the only big inning chance of the night.

Plus, Marmol is most likely not the same Marmol from midseason. Lou ran him into the ground with an insane amount of work. He got rocked in Florida and Arizona for a reason.

 

I think it's funny he gets praised for actually using the right catcher.

 

yeah this is what i had the biggest problem with. In the most important AB of the night you let Z hit, then when he gives up a leadoff baserunner you pull him? What kind of foresight is that??? If you hit with him there, you commit to keeping him in the game unless he totally is losing it. If you think you'll be taking him out soon, then you use your best pinch hitter in the key spot. It's either/or. It really was a poor decision by Lou.

[LetsPlayTwo]

We are clinching on Sunday at Wrigley. I refuse to look at it any other way until it is impossible to do so.

 

It's impossible to do so.