Carlos Pena

[TruffleShuffle]

A lot of folks on this board follow baseball pretty closely, but some don't. And while Tampa Bay was, as always, God-awful this season, Carlos Pena has been one very bright spot for them.

 

Coming into today's games, he ranked as follows in the American League:

OBP - 9th (.398)

SLG - 3rd (.597)

OPS - 4th (.995)

OPS+ - 5th (156)

HR - 2nd (40)

RBI - 4th (112)

Runs Created - 5th (115)

 

He had more RC/G than Pujols, should definitely win the AL Silver Slugger for 1B, and has arguably been the best first baseman in baseball in 2007. This is pretty stunning for a guy who was with four organizations (Detroit, NYY, Boston, Tampa) in the span of a year.

 

So my question is, did the Tigers/Yankees/RedSox give up on him too early? I do think the Tigers gave up on him too quickly. He had a .241/.338/.472 line (112 OPS+) which is nothing amazing for a first baseman, but not awful either. He showed some increase in power and patience from the previous year as well. In 2005 he was horrible early in the year and was farmed out, where he raked to a .949 OPS. When he was recalled, he put up a 1.007 OPS in 38 games.

 

One would have thought that this would earn him the first base job for 2006, but it went to Chris Shelton, while Pena was cut from the organization in spring training. He was okay with the Columbus Clippers in 2006, but they were sort of forced to release him on an agreement with the Yankees that if another team offered him a major league contract, they'd let him take it. He didn't spend much time with the Red Sox - not enough for any sort of evaluation.

 

Was there any way to see this (2007) coming? I don't really mean being one of the three best 1B in baseball, because that was such a leap that nobody could have seen it coming. Obviously, he's probably the biggest bargain in all of baseball this year. I think it's an interesting study, to determine whether this was in any way foreseeable, or if it's just a complete fluke.

[Mephistopheles]

he always had this sort of talent.

[Rob]

His 90th percentile PECOTA forecast:

 

.292/.392/.550

[XZero771679666304]

And he's represented by Scott Boras, so you know he'll cash in on this success.

[Mephistopheles]

he isnt a free agent for two more years.

[illiniguy]

It seems like every year a Devil Ray jumps up and has a big year. Obviously not all were as big as Pena's this year, but Johnny Gomes and Jorge Cantu have done this in the past. Hell even Canseco had a huge year for them well after he was done. I guess the trick will be for Pena to repeat these numbers and not fall way off like the other guys did.

[NewUserName]

Looking at his numbers he wasnt bad in Detroit. Not good but certainly not bad. I dont think Detroit has had a 1b since he has left who is better than Pena was while in Detroit.

[Mephistopheles]

It seems like every year a Devil Ray jumps up and has a big year. Obviously not all were as big as Pena's this year, but Johnny Gomes and Jorge Cantu have done this in the past. Hell even Canseco had a huge year for them well after he was done. I guess the trick will be for Pena to repeat these numbers and not fall way off like the other guys did.

 

 

Gomes and Cantu are considerably different cases.

[illiniguy]

It seems like every year a Devil Ray jumps up and has a big year. Obviously not all were as big as Pena's this year, but Johnny Gomes and Jorge Cantu have done this in the past. Hell even Canseco had a huge year for them well after he was done. I guess the trick will be for Pena to repeat these numbers and not fall way off like the other guys did.

 

 

Gomes and Cantu are considerably different cases.

Oh I agree. Cantu hasn't seen a pitch he won't swing at. I am suprised we haven't heard more of Hendry being interested in him. But, the Gomes one I thought was more similar. Didn't he have a heck of a year for them?

[BigbadB]

Didn't Pena miss a significant portion of the first month or so of the season, also?

[Andy]

Pena has 42 homers, not 40.

 

He's been one of the best players in baseball this year. Amazing season.

[TruffleShuffle]

he always had this sort of talent.

 

right, but he also didn't realize that talent for several years. Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes were mentioned earlier in this thread, but they were young guys directly up from the D-Rays minor league system. Even a guy like Jack Cust isn't this surprising - a lot of people thought Cust could hit at the big league level, he just never got a real chance.

 

Pena is a guy who was under the control of three teams last year, was basically invited to D-rays camp for nothing, and then played like one of the best players in baseball this year. I just consider it any interesting case, because obviously if you can find a guy who is ready to break out like him, you have yourself in incredible bargain. I was just wondering if there was anything in his numbers, or anything that scouting could have told us, to suggest that he could be a very good player.

[Mephistopheles]

He was what? A career 110 OPS+ guy who had been underperforming his entire career going into this season. He finally got it. See rich hill. jack cust.

[TruffleShuffle]

He was what? A career 110 OPS+ guy who had been underperforming his entire career going into this season. He finally got it. See rich hill. jack cust.

 

rich hill learned to throw strikes and was lights out for a year and a half in the minors. jack cust has a .947 career ops.

 

apples and oranges.

[Drew Doughty]

He was what? A career 110 OPS+ guy who had been underperforming his entire career going into this season. He finally got it. See rich hill. jack cust.

 

rich hill learned to throw strikes and was lights out for a year and a half in the minors. jack cust has a .947 career ops.

 

apples and oranges.

 

no they're not. rich hill is a guy with a great (recent) minor league track record that struggled at the major league level initially. jack cust is a guy with a great minor league track record that never really got a legit shot in the majors. carlos pena is a guy with a great minor league track record and actually a decent major league track record that never really received a real shot.

 

for the most part young players with strong minor-league track records eventually develop into good major-league players.

[SouthSideRyan]

Rich Hill had 50-60 IPs before he got it. Cust had ~180 PAs before he got it. Pena had 1900 PAs before this season.

[NewUserName]

Maybe there is still hope for Hee Seop Choi. Without looking at the numbers I would guess they are kind of similar. Is he still in the Tampa organization.

[CubColtPacer]

Maybe there is still hope for Hee Seop Choi. Without looking at the numbers I would guess they are kind of similar. Is he still in the Tampa organization.

 

Choi went home to Korea after not making the team for Tampa in ST. He plays for the Kia Tigers there.

[TruffleShuffle]

Rich Hill had 50-60 IPs before he got it. Cust had ~180 PAs before he got it. Pena had 1900 PAs before this season.

 

bingo, pena was the tigers starting 1B for basically 2.5 years... how can you say he "never got a shot"?

[nilodnayr]

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