Monroe started against a righty today!!!

[Yestheydo]

Do you guys really not know the difference between a straight steal and sending the runners to avoid the dp?

[Cubfanintheknow]

Do you guys really not know the difference between a straight steal and sending the runners to avoid the dp?

 

The total condescension in your post aside, yes, I do believe just about everyone who posted in this thread knows the difference.

 

And if you take into account the game situation, you'd better be in a straight steal mode.

[Yestheydo]

Do you guys really not know the difference between a straight steal and sending the runners to avoid the dp?

 

The total condescension in your post aside, yes, I do believe just about everyone who posted in this thread knows the difference.

 

And if you take into account the game situation, you'd better be in a straight steal mode.

 

I don't know about total condescension; if you want that you need to go to a game thread.

 

There's no way it was a straight steal. Kendall is a good hit and run type; chances were excellent he'd make contact. But he didn't, so Piniella is an idiot and every internet baseball genius gets to feel superior. Hilarious.

[SouthSideRyan]

What's annoying is that Kendall took a weak flail at the pitch, it didn't need to be a true hit and run, in that Kendall doesn't have to swing if it's a bad pitch. If it's a bad pitch, he just takes it and the bases are loaded. Kendall bears a lot of the blame for not taking ball 4.

[Yestheydo]

What's annoying is that Kendall took a weak flail at the pitch, it didn't need to be a true hit and run, in that Kendall doesn't have to swing if it's a bad pitch. If it's a bad pitch, he just takes it and the bases are loaded. Kendall bears a lot of the blame for not taking ball 4.

 

Yeah, but with the way the umpiring went this whole series it's pretty understandable. I'd put more blame on the offense not making a little more hay earlier in the game, especially against Petit.

[wilk]

I think this is the worst post I have ever heard of in my life. Yeah, isn't hyperbole fantastic. Why be reasonable when you can be WILD AND CRAZY?

 

Isn't calling it the "worst post I have ever heard of in my life" a bit of hyperbole as well? Just sayin.

 

That was the point.

[abuck1220]

 

Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP.

 

 

wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math.

[Rob]

 

Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP.

 

 

wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math.

 

Perhaps you're right, I wasn't paying attention to what he does with runners on (a requisite for a DP).

 

Kendall strikes out in approximately 9.3% of his at bats. With runners on base, Kendall had seven GIDP in 150 AB... or about 4.6% of his at bats.

 

Ok... so he was only TWICE as likely to strikeout as ground into a double play. Still not exactly a fantastic ratio for Lou.

[abuck1220]

 

Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP.

 

 

wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math.

 

Perhaps you're right, I wasn't paying attention to what he does with runners on (a requisite for a DP).

 

Kendall strikes out in approximately 9.3% of his at bats. With runners on base, Kendall had seven GIDP in 150 AB... or about 4.6% of his at bats.

 

Ok... so he was only TWICE as likely to strikeout as ground into a double play. Still not exactly a fantastic ratio for Lou.

 

you're still wrong. you're counting all of his ab's when you're looking at strikeouts. plus, the runners on base thing is inaccurate because there will be times when there's a runner on base where a dp wouldn't be possible.

 

the best thing (i guess) to look at would be how many times he grounds into a dp with a runner on first vs. how many times he k's with a runner on first or what % of time he k's vs. what % of times he gidp when a dp is in order.

 

sending the runners was the right move, in my opinion. kendall had a dreadful ab all around, and that's why they didn't score that inning.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP.

 

 

wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math.

 

Perhaps you're right, I wasn't paying attention to what he does with runners on (a requisite for a DP).

 

Kendall strikes out in approximately 9.3% of his at bats. With runners on base, Kendall had seven GIDP in 150 AB... or about 4.6% of his at bats.

 

Ok... so he was only TWICE as likely to strikeout as ground into a double play. Still not exactly a fantastic ratio for Lou.

 

But a DP has to be in order, so removing his ABs without a runner on 1st brings it down to 104 ABs bringing it up to 6.7%

[NCCubFan]

This trend can really not continue.

It won't continue. Soriano returns Tuesday, so Floyd and Monroe won't both be starting the same game anymore. It was one game.

[soccer10k]

What's annoying is that Kendall took a weak flail at the pitch, it didn't need to be a true hit and run, in that Kendall doesn't have to swing if it's a bad pitch. If it's a bad pitch, he just takes it and the bases are loaded. Kendall bears a lot of the blame for not taking ball 4.

 

Not to mention that Kendall failed on two bunt attempts which forced him to swing away with 2 strikes before that.

[SouthSideRyan]

To answer abuck's query, Kendall has struck out 7 times with men on 1st+, the same as his number of DPs.

[wvcbxl]

... deported to a country where baseball doesn't exist.

 

Surprisingly, that rules out places like Armenia, Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Zimbabwe. :jocolor:

[rawaction]

To answer abuck's query, Kendall has struck out 7 times with men on 1st+, the same as his number of DPs.

 

Which makes it the right call. Lou trusted his best contact hitter to simply make contact anywhere on the field.....and he didn't. He trusted one of his better judges of the strikezone to not strikeout...and he did.

 

I think there was a better chance of Kendall putting the ball in play than Theriot hitting a sac fly (because he doesn't hit the ball in the air with authority) or Jones hitting a sac fly (because he doesn't hit the ball in the air at all). All greater than the likelihood of either getting a hit.

[Schwarber Fan]

Run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd, no out: 1.5065

Run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out: 1.44753

 

How does that make sense? With a guy on 3rd, a fly ball scores a run, plus the infield comes in, making it easier to get hits.

 

Besides, even is that "run expectancy" is true, Kendall must be an exception because he hits a lot of ground balls, that = double plays. Kendall rarely K's as well. I think it was the right move by Lou.

[Tracer Bullet]

Run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd, no out: 1.5065

Run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out: 1.44753

 

How does that make sense? With a guy on 3rd, a fly ball scores a run, plus the infield comes in, making it easier to get hits.

 

Besides, even is that "run expectancy" is true, Kendall must be an exception because he hits a lot of ground balls, that = double plays. Kendall rarely K's as well. I think it was the right move by Lou.

 

If I'm reading it correctly, that's the average number of total runs you'd expect to score from those 2 situations; not the probability that 1 run will score. It shouldn't be surprising that the team is more likely to score more runs in the first situation than the second. Outs are valuable.

 

In our situation, the more important number for me is probability that the team will score at least 1 run. That # might also be higher with guys on 1st and 2nd and no outs, I don't know.

[hawkeyecub]

Here are the numbers for the past 3 years:

 

Kendall with a runner on 1st base (1st only, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, bases loaded)

 

103 at-bats

6 K's

7 double plays

 

When you consider that I didn't take out his at-bats with 2 outs (eliminating the double play but not the strikeout), striking out has happened less for him in double play situations than double plays have.

 

Try 2006:

167 at-bats

13 K's

19 double plays

 

And 2005:

194 AB's

10 K's

27 double plays

 

If the runners had held on their bags, there would have been a much higher chance of having 2 outs than if they started the runners. As you can see, even when including the 2 out situations Kendall grounds into more double plays than K's in those situations each of the last 3 years.

 

This was posted in the game thread and backs up my assertion that it was the right call.

 

Kendall is more likely to take ball four or hit the ball on the ground in that situation than he is to swing and miss. With most players I wouldn't make that move, but I would with Kendall. It eliminates the more likely outcome of grounding into a double play and also increases the chances of him getting a hit (even slightly) because the middle infielders are on the move.

 

As was also mentioned, Theriot and Jacque aren't your ideal guys to hit a sac fly either. Good decision by Lou, poor execution by Kendall.

[Soul]

Here are the numbers for the past 3 years:

 

Kendall with a runner on 1st base (1st only, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, bases loaded)

 

103 at-bats

6 K's

7 double plays

 

When you consider that I didn't take out his at-bats with 2 outs (eliminating the double play but not the strikeout), striking out has happened less for him in double play situations than double plays have.

 

Try 2006:

167 at-bats

13 K's

19 double plays

 

And 2005:

194 AB's

10 K's

27 double plays

 

If the runners had held on their bags, there would have been a much higher chance of having 2 outs than if they started the runners. As you can see, even when including the 2 out situations Kendall grounds into more double plays than K's in those situations each of the last 3 years.

 

This was posted in the game thread and backs up my assertion that it was the right call.

 

Kendall is more likely to take ball four or hit the ball on the ground in that situation than he is to swing and miss. With most players I wouldn't make that move, but I would with Kendall. It eliminates the more likely outcome of grounding into a double play and also increases the chances of him getting a hit (even slightly) because the middle infielders are on the move.

 

As was also mentioned, Theriot and Jacque aren't your ideal guys to hit a sac fly either. Good decision by Lou, poor execution by Kendall.

 

I just wish Jason could have gotten the damn bunt down so we wouldn't be arguing about this and we might even be 2 1/2 games up right now.

[CubColtPacer]

Here are the numbers for the past 3 years:

 

Kendall with a runner on 1st base (1st only, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, bases loaded)

 

103 at-bats

6 K's

7 double plays

 

When you consider that I didn't take out his at-bats with 2 outs (eliminating the double play but not the strikeout), striking out has happened less for him in double play situations than double plays have.

 

Try 2006:

167 at-bats

13 K's

19 double plays

 

And 2005:

194 AB's

10 K's

27 double plays

 

If the runners had held on their bags, there would have been a much higher chance of having 2 outs than if they started the runners. As you can see, even when including the 2 out situations Kendall grounds into more double plays than K's in those situations each of the last 3 years.

 

This was posted in the game thread and backs up my assertion that it was the right call.

 

Kendall is more likely to take ball four or hit the ball on the ground in that situation than he is to swing and miss. With most players I wouldn't make that move, but I would with Kendall. It eliminates the more likely outcome of grounding into a double play and also increases the chances of him getting a hit (even slightly) because the middle infielders are on the move.

 

As was also mentioned, Theriot and Jacque aren't your ideal guys to hit a sac fly either. Good decision by Lou, poor execution by Kendall.

 

I was actually about to quote the same thing. I did make one mistake. Before yesterday, he had 7 K's and 7 double plays on the season, not 6 and 7.

Still, that doesn't change the numbers significantly. With runners on 1st in the last 3 seasons, Kendall has struck out 30 times (31 now after yesterday) and grounded into 53 double plays.

If somebody had the time to go back and take the 2 out at-bats out of that (where he can strike out but not hit into a double play), the strikeouts would probably decrease to the point where grounding into a double play was more than twice as likely as striking out for Kendall.

 

One other thing. Think about how many times the Cubs have started the runners for Kendall. Oakland probably did the same thing for him a good amount of the time he was there. How many other times would he have grounded into double plays if the runners weren't started a large percentage of the time?

[kente777]

Here are the numbers for the past 3 years:

 

Kendall with a runner on 1st base (1st only, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, bases loaded)

 

103 at-bats

6 K's

7 double plays

 

When you consider that I didn't take out his at-bats with 2 outs (eliminating the double play but not the strikeout), striking out has happened less for him in double play situations than double plays have.

 

Try 2006:

167 at-bats

13 K's

19 double plays

 

And 2005:

194 AB's

10 K's

27 double plays

 

If the runners had held on their bags, there would have been a much higher chance of having 2 outs than if they started the runners. As you can see, even when including the 2 out situations Kendall grounds into more double plays than K's in those situations each of the last 3 years.

 

This was posted in the game thread and backs up my assertion that it was the right call.

 

Kendall is more likely to take ball four or hit the ball on the ground in that situation than he is to swing and miss. With most players I wouldn't make that move, but I would with Kendall. It eliminates the more likely outcome of grounding into a double play and also increases the chances of him getting a hit (even slightly) because the middle infielders are on the move.

 

As was also mentioned, Theriot and Jacque aren't your ideal guys to hit a sac fly either. Good decision by Lou, poor execution by Kendall.

 

I just wish Jason could have gotten the damn bunt down so we wouldn't be arguing about this and we might even be 2 1/2 games up right now.

 

If Kendall would have gotten a bunt down, people wouldn't be slamming Lou. If Kendall would have gotten wood on the ball instead of striking out, people wouldn't be slamming Lou. If Kendall had gotten a double, then 2 runs would have scored and Lou would have been called a genius.

 

The bottom line is that Kendall did not execute. Sometimes in baseball, you take risks. How many times did people on this board slam Dusty Baker for playing it safe, not ever doing a hit and run, etc. Lou made a gutsy call....Ok...it didn't work. But I'd much rather him do something like that than be a Dusty Baker and always play it safe.

 

The Cubs are still 1 1/2 out in front. Relax and enjoy the run.

[Guest]

hee-hee

 

this thing can be tested now that the archives are searchable at the test 3.0 board. I suspect the answer is that Baker was slammed for an awful lot of things, but not "hit and running" wasn't often one of them.

[treebird]

one thing i've not seen mentioned seen mentioned is the pitcher. valverde is an excellent strikeout pitcher (nearly 11 k/9) and gets few groundballs (.72 g/f ratio).

 

taking this information into account, i think it's clear that this move was a bad one.

[rawaction]

one thing i've not seen mentioned seen mentioned is the pitcher. valverde is an excellent strikeout pitcher (nearly 11 k/9) and gets few groundballs (.72 g/f ratio).

 

taking this information into account, i think it's clear that this move was a bad one.

 

Valverde also has a .192 BAA and had given up 2 hits to that point, ahead in the count to both hitters. He clearly wasn't on his game yesterday. I still take my chances Kendall, the hardest player on the team to K, puts the ball in play. I'd rather play toward my player's strength than hold back because of the other guy.

[Rob]

To answer abuck's query, Kendall has struck out 7 times with men on 1st+, the same as his number of DPs.

 

Which makes it the right call. Lou trusted his best contact hitter to simply make contact anywhere on the field.....and he didn't. He trusted one of his better judges of the strikezone to not strikeout...and he did.

 

But we're still not factoring in the odds that he hits a liner or a soft flyball that turns into two or even three outs... which squarely place the move back in "wrong" category.