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I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Only to people who don't understand them.

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Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Only to people who don't understand them.

 

Enlighten me please.

 

The difference between the non-Mets contenders (under any measure) is not enough to say the Cubs aren't a top 4 team by any stretch.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Only to people who don't understand them.

 

Enlighten me please.

 

The difference between the non-Mets contenders (under any measure) is not enough to say the Cubs aren't a top 4 team by any stretch.

 

My guess is that he's saying the metric doesn't take into account that A. guys like Marquis overachieved early, and their struggles will continue to bring the metrics toward mediocrity. B. Soriano is hurt.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Is there any evidence that pythagorean WL is a predictive stat? I'm not being argumentative here; I really want to know if there is any study that shows actual WL reverts to pyth WL instead of the other way around (or, possibly, no reversion in either direction).

 

I've always looked at pyth record as nothing more than a summary of runs for/against, not a prediction of future winning pct - but maybe I'm wrong.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Is there any evidence that pythagorean WL is a predictive stat? I'm not being argumentative here; I really want to know if there is any study that shows actual WL reverts to pyth WL instead of the other way around (or, possibly, no reversion in either direction).

 

I've always looked at pyth record as nothing more than a summary of runs for/against, not a prediction of future winning pct - but maybe I'm wrong.

 

The argument was whether we ARE a top 4 NL team. According to how the team has played with regards to scoring and allowing runs(the point of the game), we are the 2nd best team in the NL.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

Pythagoras says we are.

 

Is there any evidence that pythagorean WL is a predictive stat? I'm not being argumentative here; I really want to know if there is any study that shows actual WL reverts to pyth WL instead of the other way around (or, possibly, no reversion in either direction).

 

I've always looked at pyth record as nothing more than a summary of runs for/against, not a prediction of future winning pct - but maybe I'm wrong.

 

It seems to be a fairly decent predictor, but certainly not without its flaws. In 2006, the Mets were 7 games better than "expected" and Atlanta and Colorado were 5 games worse than "expected".

 

In the AL that year, Oakland was +7 and Cleveland was -12 (!).

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2006_standings.shtml

Posted
If Pena doesn't like playing once then sitting for a few days, this is not the place for him to be

 

The only way I get him is to put him in the OF like I said EVERY SINGLE DAY no matter what he does - give him the AB's and see what he can do over an extended period of time.

 

He has a raw talent that allows him to crush the ball when he connects - his problem imho is that he doesn't have the natural baseball instincts to be able to connect with the ball often enough and he certainly doesn't have the natural instincts to be an OF. If the organization feels they can teach him those skills and accept his mistakes (which he WILL make) through the end of this year and probably all of 2008, then go get him. If the team believes he's valuable off the bench and as a 4th OF'r, don't even think of touching him.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

I'll accept the fact that they "could" make the playoffs, but I don't think it would be easy and if I were a betting man, I'd say they don't have the horses to do it. Outside of Lee (not having a typical year), Ramirez and Soriano (who's now out for awhile), the rest of the offense is made up mostly of retreads and "hopefuls." Just look at the lineup's each night and the number of moves up and down to the minor leagues. As someone else said, I think they're just throwing stuff at the wall hoping something sticks - that to me is not the sign of a team that will make the playoffs.

 

That said, I hope I'm wrong and that we get in and find a way to finally get the monkey off our backs before we hit 100 years of futility.

Posted
I've altered my position. Personally I don't think the Cubs are a playoff caliber team this year - if they make it, great, but I just don't see it happening.

 

They aren't a top 4 NL team by any stretch, but they could still very easily make the playoffs.

 

I'll accept the fact that they "could" make the playoffs, but I don't think it would be easy and if I were a betting man, I'd say they don't have the horses to do it. Outside of Lee (not having a typical year), Ramirez and Soriano (who's now out for awhile), the rest of the offense is made up mostly of retreads and "hopefuls." Just look at the lineup's each night and the number of moves up and down to the minor leagues. As someone else said, I think they're just throwing stuff at the wall hoping something sticks - that to me is not the sign of a team that will make the playoffs.

 

That said, I hope I'm wrong and that we get in and find a way to finally get the monkey off our backs before we hit 100 years of futility.

If offense was the only element that mattered, then I'd agree with you.

 

But fortunately the Cubs have been, and can reasonably be expected to continue outpitching their primary competitors.

Posted

Pena may be released:

 

According to the Boston Globe, Clay Buchholz will start Game 1 of Friday's doubleheader.

 

Various reports agree that Wily Mo Pena is likely to be let go in order to make room for Buchholz, but now it sounds like Jacoby Ellsbury, rather than Bobby Kielty, will then replace Pena for Game 2.

Source: Boston Globe

 

According to the Boston Herald, Wily Mo Pena is on the verge of being traded or designated for assignment by the Red Sox.

 

A move of some kind is expected by Friday, when the Red Sox will likely use Pena's roster spot for Clay Buchholz. Pena has cleared waivers, so he can be traded anywhere. Buchholz is expected to start Friday, at which point he'll likely be sent back to the minors with Bobby Kielty replacing Pena long term.

Source: Boston Herald

Posted

And per rotoworld, Wily Mo is now a Nat:

 

Wily Mo Pena has been traded to the Nationals, according to the Boston Herald.

So there was one team out there that wanted to take a chance on his power, and it comes as little surprise as it's the one run by Jim Bowden. Pena should get an extended look in a corner over the rest of the season, making him worth picking up in NL-only leagues. Nook Logan figures to lose playing time, with Ryan Church moving to center.

Posted
And per rotoworld, Wily Mo is now a Nat:

 

Wily Mo Pena has been traded to the Nationals, according to the Boston Herald.

So there was one team out there that wanted to take a chance on his power, and it comes as little surprise as it's the one run by Jim Bowden. Pena should get an extended look in a corner over the rest of the season, making him worth picking up in NL-only leagues. Nook Logan figures to lose playing time, with Ryan Church moving to center.

So much for that. Instead, we will end up with Craig Monroe.

Posted

Rotoworld:

 

Nationals GM Jim Bowden said the newly acquired Wily Mo Pena will platoon with Ryan Church in left field.

 

That doesn't make much sense. It should be obvious to everyone by now that Pena needs more at-bats to succeed, and he's just not going to be very useful while starting twice per week. The Nationals were all set to play Church in center to make room for Alex Escobar before Escobar's setback. Why wouldn't they do the same thing with Pena, a player with quite a bit more upside? Maybe it will happen if Pena gets off to a good start.

Posted
And per rotoworld, Wily Mo is now a Nat:

 

Wily Mo Pena has been traded to the Nationals, according to the Boston Herald.

So there was one team out there that wanted to take a chance on his power, and it comes as little surprise as it's the one run by Jim Bowden. Pena should get an extended look in a corner over the rest of the season, making him worth picking up in NL-only leagues. Nook Logan figures to lose playing time, with Ryan Church moving to center.

So much for that. Instead, we will end up with Craig Monroe.

 

Where are you getting that from? I assume you are talking out of your arse.

Posted
And per rotoworld, Wily Mo is now a Nat:

 

Wily Mo Pena has been traded to the Nationals, according to the Boston Herald.

So there was one team out there that wanted to take a chance on his power, and it comes as little surprise as it's the one run by Jim Bowden. Pena should get an extended look in a corner over the rest of the season, making him worth picking up in NL-only leagues. Nook Logan figures to lose playing time, with Ryan Church moving to center.

So much for that. Instead, we will end up with Craig Monroe.

 

Where are you getting that from? I assume you are talking out of your arse.

Monroe was released by the Tigers. Hendry has shown interest in the past for Monroe, I'm assuming here and nothing more.

Posted
That's a good move on the Nats part. With them moving into a new park, they are trying to get some young blood in their system. They are probably hoping that Pena can become their superstar slugger.
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