Cubs Trade Rob Bowen and Jerry Blevins for Jason Kendall

[David]

I might've missed it in this thread, but has anyone looked into the stats to see if there's any explanation for Kendall's sudden drop off the first two months of this year?

 

Does his BABIP indicate anything as far as bad luck? Why is his IsoD down? Is it just some crazy major variance that he's bound to bounce back from?

 

I always remembered Kendall as the consummate OBP guy. This year is just such a huge difference from the rest of his career in that regard. It's hard for me to pin it just on his age/decline when he's only 33 and had a nice year just last year.

[JeffH]

murton1, Mr. Vorva made a mistake.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I might've missed it in this thread, but has anyone looked into the stats to see if there's any explanation for Kendall's sudden drop off the first two months of this year?

 

Does his BABIP indicate anything as far as bad luck? Why is his IsoD down? Is it just some crazy major variance that he's bound to bounce back from?

 

I always remembered Kendall as the consummate OBP guy. This year is just such a huge difference from the rest of his career in that regard. It's hard for me to pin it just on his age/decline when he's only 33 and had a nice year just last year.

 

His LD% has dropped off a bit, but he's not hitting any more infield pop-ups than before, and his BABIP is really unlucky even with the lower LD%.

[Skyballer]

murton1, Mr. Vorva made a mistake.

aha, thanks.

[Bote McBoteface]

If someone points out again that we never should of traded Barrett i think i might headbutt my pc!!! It was clearly not just Z who didn't get on with Barrett. Floyd made a statement about someone in the clubhouse' not being part of the family, we don't want that guy here' the next week Barrett is traded. Issue over we couldn't keep Barrett without causing major issues in the clubhouse. Kendall is not ideal but outside Pasada (cue Vance!!) who else could Hendry of looked at without giving up significant prospects?? you want Salty from the Braves? kiss goodbye to a combination of Marshall/Hill/Pie/Veal/Gallagher. It would probably of taken 3 of those guys to get Salty. I agree that Hendry needs to do more and get us an upgrade at RF,CF or SS but we're really no worse off than we were before, and most importantly we're winning!!

 

Oh man...I don't normally do this, but for God's sake, it's "would HAVE" and "should HAVE."

[David]

His LD% has dropped off a bit, but he's not hitting any more infield pop-ups than before, and his BABIP is really unlucky even with the lower LD%.

 

Thanks. There's at least some reason for optimism there, I guess.

[nilodnayr]

I might've missed it in this thread, but has anyone looked into the stats to see if there's any explanation for Kendall's sudden drop off the first two months of this year?

 

Does his BABIP indicate anything as far as bad luck? Why is his IsoD down? Is it just some crazy major variance that he's bound to bounce back from?

 

I always remembered Kendall as the consummate OBP guy. This year is just such a huge difference from the rest of his career in that regard. It's hard for me to pin it just on his age/decline when he's only 33 and had a nice year just last year.

 

Yeah, I mentioned a few times his BABIP was only like 243. He does have an 18.7 LD%, but his FB% has increased significantly this year. And since FBs fall for hits at a much lower rate that explains SOME of the BABIP losses. However, hes still getting quite unlucky. BUT, his walk rate is at an all time low of 3.9% (which is bad).

 

In summation, some of Kendall's regression has been his fault, some has been luck. Just eyballing it, I would say its been 50% each. He for sure hasn't performed to the ability that hes showin the past. There is a possibility he could bounce back to his form of the last few seasons, and hitting in Wrigley vs the bottom feeders of the NL will definitely help, but I'd predict his second half performance to fall in the middle of his first half of this year and what hes done the last few years.

[CubinNY]

I might've missed it in this thread, but has anyone looked into the stats to see if there's any explanation for Kendall's sudden drop off the first two months of this year?

 

Does his BABIP indicate anything as far as bad luck? Why is his IsoD down? Is it just some crazy major variance that he's bound to bounce back from?

 

I always remembered Kendall as the consummate OBP guy. This year is just such a huge difference from the rest of his career in that regard. It's hard for me to pin it just on his age/decline when he's only 33 and had a nice year just last year.

 

Yeah, I mentioned a few times his BABIP was only like 243. He does have an 18.7 LD%, but his FB% has increased significantly this year. And since FBs fall for hits at a much lower rate that explains SOME of the BABIP losses. However, hes still getting quite unlucky. BUT, his walk rate is at an all time low of 3.9% (which is bad).

 

In summation, some of Kendall's regression has been his fault, some has been luck. Just eyballing it, I would say its been 50% each. He for sure hasn't performed to the ability that hes showin the past. There is a possibility he could bounce back to his form of the last few seasons, and hitting in Wrigley vs the bottom feeders of the NL will definitely help, but I'd predict his second half performance to fall in the middle of his first half of this year and what hes done the last few years.

I expect Kendall's numbers to get better. I hope they bat him in front of Lee though.

[Mark_R]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

[Skyballer]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

I'm getting very optimistic about Kendall.

[nilodnayr]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

[nilodnayr]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

 

Also, I wonder if those would be counted as infield fly balls (most of the extended foul territory is in the IF and rarely do corner OFs make it all the way past the line to make foul catches). Hes right inline with his career on that stat.

[CUBZ99]

and like i said earlier, since there is no proof that unicorns don't exist, you should assume that they do.

 

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

 

Read the first chapter on plausible reasoning. Then get back to me on your unicorn argument.

 

yeah, i'm gonna pass on that. guess i'll take an incomplete on this assignment.

 

Thank you FergieJ31, the whole stupid unicorn bit was getting old.

[David]

I expect Kendall's numbers to get better. I hope they bat him in front of Lee though.

 

I sure don't. At least, not until he shows that the first couple months of this year were, indeed, an aberration.

 

I want his .226/.261/.281 line nowhere near the top of the order.

[CUBZ99]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

 

Also, I wonder if those would be counted as infield fly balls (most of the extended foul territory is in the IF and rarely do corner OFs make it all the way past the line to make foul catches). Hes right inline with his career on that stat.

 

Has anyone mentioned that Gerald Perry (Kendall's hitting coach last year), was heavily in favor of the trade. Maybe Perry has already pinpointed something that Kendall is not doing or believes he can easily get Kendall turned around?

[nilodnayr]

I might've missed it in this thread, but has anyone looked into the stats to see if there's any explanation for Kendall's sudden drop off the first two months of this year?

 

Does his BABIP indicate anything as far as bad luck? Why is his IsoD down? Is it just some crazy major variance that he's bound to bounce back from?

 

I always remembered Kendall as the consummate OBP guy. This year is just such a huge difference from the rest of his career in that regard. It's hard for me to pin it just on his age/decline when he's only 33 and had a nice year just last year.

 

Yeah, I mentioned a few times his BABIP was only like 243. He does have an 18.7 LD%, but his FB% has increased significantly this year. And since FBs fall for hits at a much lower rate that explains SOME of the BABIP losses. However, hes still getting quite unlucky. BUT, his walk rate is at an all time low of 3.9% (which is bad).

 

In summation, some of Kendall's regression has been his fault, some has been luck. Just eyballing it, I would say its been 50% each. He for sure hasn't performed to the ability that hes showin the past. There is a possibility he could bounce back to his form of the last few seasons, and hitting in Wrigley vs the bottom feeders of the NL will definitely help, but I'd predict his second half performance to fall in the middle of his first half of this year and what hes done the last few years.

I expect Kendall's numbers to get better. I hope they bat him in front of Lee though.

 

Lou said hes going to bat him 7th. Frankly, I'd rather have my best hitters as early in the order as possible and have Lee second. But Lou obviously doesnt feel that way, so I'd guess if Kendall gets hot quickly/starts taking more walks, I think he'll move to the 2 hole.

[ctcf]

and like i said earlier, since there is no proof that unicorns don't exist, you should assume that they do.

 

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

 

Read the first chapter on plausible reasoning. Then get back to me on your unicorn argument.

 

yeah, i'm gonna pass on that. guess i'll take an incomplete on this assignment.

 

Thank you FergieJ31, the whole stupid unicorn bit was getting old.

 

His whole bit is

[nilodnayr]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

 

Also, I wonder if those would be counted as infield fly balls (most of the extended foul territory is in the IF and rarely do corner OFs make it all the way past the line to make foul catches). Hes right inline with his career on that stat.

 

Has anyone mentioned that Gerald Perry (Kendall's hitting coach last year), was heavily in favor of the trade. Maybe Perry has already pinpointed something that Kendall is not doing or believes he can easily get Kendall turned around?

 

I haven't read many of the articles to see if there are quotes from Perry, but word is that this is a Gary Hughes acquisition. I imagine though that being the hitting coach and working with Kendall last year, Perry had a pretty decent say in the matter, so if Perry wasn't behind it, thge trade probably wouldn't have happened. Actually, if Perry wasn't behind it, Hughes most likely wouldn't have even been scouting Kendall.

[NCCubFan]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

 

Also, I wonder if those would be counted as infield fly balls (most of the extended foul territory is in the IF and rarely do corner OFs make it all the way past the line to make foul catches). Hes right inline with his career on that stat.

 

Has anyone mentioned that Gerald Perry (Kendall's hitting coach last year), was heavily in favor of the trade. Maybe Perry has already pinpointed something that Kendall is not doing or believes he can easily get Kendall turned around?

 

I haven't read many of the articles to see if there are quotes from Perry, but word is that this is a Gary Hughes acquisition. I imagine though that being the hitting coach and working with Kendall last year, Perry had a pretty decent say in the matter, so if Perry wasn't behind it, thge trade probably wouldn't have happened. Actually, if Perry wasn't behind it, Hughes most likely wouldn't have even been scouting Kendall.

I think a likely scenerio is that Perry recommended Kendall based on his familiarity with Jason from last year, so Hendry sent Hughes to scout him. Hughes then presented a favorable report, so Hendry pulled the trigger.

[abuck1220]

and like i said earlier, since there is no proof that unicorns don't exist, you should assume that they do.

 

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

 

Read the first chapter on plausible reasoning. Then get back to me on your unicorn argument.

 

yeah, i'm gonna pass on that. guess i'll take an incomplete on this assignment.

 

Thank you FergieJ31, the whole stupid unicorn bit was getting old.

 

His whole bit is

 

uh oh, looks like i hurt someone's feelings. :cry:

[abuck1220]

and like i said earlier, since there is no proof that unicorns don't exist, you should assume that they do.

 

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

 

Read the first chapter on plausible reasoning. Then get back to me on your unicorn argument.

 

yeah, i'm gonna pass on that. guess i'll take an incomplete on this assignment.

 

Thank you FergieJ31, the whole stupid unicorn bit was getting old.

 

not as old as the catcher's winning % theory.

[nilodnayr]

Just curious, is a reason for Kendall's high FB rate due to the vast amount of space in foul territory in Oakland? I'd have to imagine there's gotta be a couple handful of balls that were caught there this year that wouldn't be caught in other parks.

 

While that is a unique characteristic of Oakland, then it would be within reason to expect his FB% to be high last year too. However, last year was right inline with his career. He has 104 FBs as opposed to 130 all of last year and right around 150 the previous years. I don't know anywhere that tracks pop fouls, but that'd have to be an awful lot of pop fouls this year over last to account for the disparity.

 

Also, I wonder if those would be counted as infield fly balls (most of the extended foul territory is in the IF and rarely do corner OFs make it all the way past the line to make foul catches). Hes right inline with his career on that stat.

 

Has anyone mentioned that Gerald Perry (Kendall's hitting coach last year), was heavily in favor of the trade. Maybe Perry has already pinpointed something that Kendall is not doing or believes he can easily get Kendall turned around?

 

I haven't read many of the articles to see if there are quotes from Perry, but word is that this is a Gary Hughes acquisition. I imagine though that being the hitting coach and working with Kendall last year, Perry had a pretty decent say in the matter, so if Perry wasn't behind it, thge trade probably wouldn't have happened. Actually, if Perry wasn't behind it, Hughes most likely wouldn't have even been scouting Kendall.

I think a likely scenerio is that Perry recommended Kendall based on his familiarity with Jason from last year, so Hendry sent Hughes to scout him. Hughes then presented a favorable report, so Hendry pulled the trigger.

 

Exactly.

[ctcf]

and like i said earlier, since there is no proof that unicorns don't exist, you should assume that they do.

 

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

 

Read the first chapter on plausible reasoning. Then get back to me on your unicorn argument.

 

yeah, i'm gonna pass on that. guess i'll take an incomplete on this assignment.

 

Thank you FergieJ31, the whole stupid unicorn bit was getting old.

 

His whole bit is

 

uh oh, looks like i hurt someone's feelings. :cry:

 

When?

 

Perhaps I just enjoy pointing out that you act like a troll 99% of the time you post and rarely contribute anything even borderline intelligent?

[Banedon]

uh oh, looks like i hurt someone's feelings. :cry:

 

When?

 

Perhaps I just enjoy pointing out that you act like a troll 99% of the time you post and rarely contribute anything even borderline intelligent?

 

First of all, that's not true. And second, no personal attacks.

[ctcf]

uh oh, looks like i hurt someone's feelings. :cry:

 

When?

 

Perhaps I just enjoy pointing out that you act like a troll 99% of the time you post and rarely contribute anything even borderline intelligent?

 

First of all, that's not true. And second, no personal attacks.

 

I must have missed it then.