Hill to Work on a Third Pitch

[mhuber92211]

This is why I was surpised to see the consenus of the board to keep Hill and deal Marshall. Marshall is younger and has the 3rd pitch (and possibly a 4th) already. This year it seems that his curve has gotten above average.

[SouthSideRyan]

Really? You just figured out now that as a starter would would need more than 2 pitches to be successful?

 

no kidding...he hasn't had ANY success to this point.

 

You know Shawn Estes had isolated stretches of success for the Cubs in 2003.

 

I'm not exactly on the hate Rich Hill bandwagon, I'm just saying.

 

Rich Hill's stretches of success haven't been isolated. That's not even close to a valid comparison.

[Guest]

This is why I was surpised to see the consenus of the board to keep Hill and deal Marshall. Marshall is younger and has the 3rd pitch (and possibly a 4th) already. This year it seems that his curve has gotten above average.

 

I'd rather have Rich Hill over Sean Marshall because Hill still has a higher upside and doesn't have Marshall's injury history.

[forbez18]

Rich Hill has a great curve and a solid fast ball. He is able to get it by major league hitters if it is thrown properly. Ofcourse a 3rd pitch would be great if it is good, but a 3rd pitch can also be a bad idea if he goes out there and does not execute it well.

 

There are two things that I have noticed about Hill that I just can't explain and I was wondering if anyone could help me.

 

First, when he pitches he pitches from the extreme right side of the mound. I see this hurting his pitches. His curve ball then has to swoop in and can not cut in like Zito. It is also almost impossible to throw a good curve down and in to a righty or inside at all to a lefty. If he was to stand on the opposite side of the mound I could see the curve being much more effective. So why does he stand on what would seem to be the wrong side of the mound?

 

Second, it has seemed that he has stopped throwing the high inside fastball. With the curve he has, he has to be able to set up the pitch much better. If batters are leaning over waiting for the curve and still able to drive a low fast ball he has to throw a pitch to move back the batter and most likely swing and miss. The pitch selection with Hill seems to be way to predictable. He throws his pitches in the same location and on the counts you think he is going to throw them. I would like to see a lot more hard cuves almost bouncing on the plate, and a lot more fast balls right under their arms both inside and outside.

[Lockes Eye Scar]

a nice changeup would really help against righties.

[CubmanPi]

In Bruce's article, I found this gem of a quote from Lou.

 

“We tried to set up the double play, but the shortstop doesn’t play in the bullpen,” Piniella said, referring to where Young’s slam landed.

Hysterical. Maybe this is the birth of a new defensive shift Lou can put into effect until Hill gets this new third pitch down.

[abuck1220]

Really? You just figured out now that as a starter would would need more than 2 pitches to be successful?

 

no kidding...he hasn't had ANY success to this point.

 

You know Shawn Estes had isolated stretches of success for the Cubs in 2003.

 

 

maybe the worst comparison i've ever heard.

[UK1679666180]

I wish it was easy to develop a good change, it isn't. That's a pitch more about feel than anything else. I don't know if his arm action is one that can allow him a good change-up. What makes him deceptive might make it difficult to not alter his arm speed or angle on a change.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's pretty deceiving to label Hill a 2 pitch guy. At the base he only throws a fastball and a curve, but I'm almost positive he throws 2 different curveballs(additionally, I've seen him drop down to throw a frisbee a couple times), and I think he intentionally throws his fastball at various speeds, much like the desired effect of a changeup.

[nolanwood]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's pretty deceiving to label Hill a 2 pitch guy. At the base he only throws a fastball and a curve, but I'm almost positive he throws 2 different curveballs(additionally, I've seen him drop down to throw a frisbee a couple times), and I think he intentionally throws his fastball at various speeds, much like the desired effect of a changeup.

 

That's what I thought as well....2 different curveballs, occasionally dropping down, and varied fastball speeds. I think his biggest problem is location - seems like alot of curveballs have hung over the heart of the plate lately.

[XZero771679666304]

Really? You just figured out now that as a starter would would need more than 2 pitches to be successful?

 

no kidding...he hasn't had ANY success to this point.

 

You know Shawn Estes had isolated stretches of success for the Cubs in 2003.

 

 

maybe the worst comparison i've ever heard.

 

I like Rich too, but it's clear something is wrong beyond just having a few bad outings.

 

It seems that unless he has total command of his curveball(s), he's increasingly horrible. His fastball is adequate, but only with paired with an effective curve. Without the curve being sharp and thrown for strikes, he's a BP pitcher.

 

Fortunately for Rich, he has gone through prolonged stretches where his curve was good, and the league was still trying to get a solid read on him.

 

It appears they have, and a trend has developed, and it's not a good one. Rich needs another pitch to cover his butt when his curve is less than spectacular. Either that, or he is going to have to continually change up his pitch/situation strategies to prevent hitters from sitting on pitches. It seems a lot simpler to just add a pitch.

 

Plenty of players have come into the league and looked awesome, only to fade into obscurity as they were figured out. Rich can still be awesome, but it may be evolve or die time for him.

[abuck1220]

Really? You just figured out now that as a starter would would need more than 2 pitches to be successful?

 

no kidding...he hasn't had ANY success to this point.

 

You know Shawn Estes had isolated stretches of success for the Cubs in 2003.

 

 

maybe the worst comparison i've ever heard.

 

I like Rich too, but it's clear something is wrong beyond just having a few bad outings.

 

It seems that unless he has total command of his curveball(s), he's increasingly horrible. His fastball is adequate, but only with paired with an effective curve. Without the curve being sharp and thrown for strikes, he's a BP pitcher.

 

Fortunately for Rich, he has gone through prolonged stretches where his curve was good, and the league was still trying to get a solid read on him.

 

It appears they have, and a trend has developed, and it's not a good one. Rich needs another pitch to cover his butt when his curve is less than spectacular. Either that, or he is going to have to continually change up his pitch/situation strategies to prevent hitters from sitting on pitches. It seems a lot simpler to just add a pitch.

 

Plenty of players have come into the league and looked awesome, only to fade into obscurity as they were figured out. Rich can still be awesome, but it may be evolve or die time for him.

 

wow, that is being ridiculously harsh.

[XZero771679666304]

Really? You just figured out now that as a starter would would need more than 2 pitches to be successful?

 

no kidding...he hasn't had ANY success to this point.

 

You know Shawn Estes had isolated stretches of success for the Cubs in 2003.

 

 

maybe the worst comparison i've ever heard.

 

I like Rich too, but it's clear something is wrong beyond just having a few bad outings.

 

It seems that unless he has total command of his curveball(s), he's increasingly horrible. His fastball is adequate, but only with paired with an effective curve. Without the curve being sharp and thrown for strikes, he's a BP pitcher.

 

Fortunately for Rich, he has gone through prolonged stretches where his curve was good, and the league was still trying to get a solid read on him.

 

It appears they have, and a trend has developed, and it's not a good one. Rich needs another pitch to cover his butt when his curve is less than spectacular. Either that, or he is going to have to continually change up his pitch/situation strategies to prevent hitters from sitting on pitches. It seems a lot simpler to just add a pitch.

 

Plenty of players have come into the league and looked awesome, only to fade into obscurity as they were figured out. Rich can still be awesome, but it may be evolve or die time for him.

 

wow, that is being ridiculously harsh.

 

It's a metaphor, abuck.

 

What I am trying to say is that he may be at a key juncture in his career. His m.o. has been figured out, and his bad outings are becoming much more frequent. Since early May, he's had as many bad outings (4 or more ER) as good ones (QS), and as many horrible outings (5+ ER, less than 5 IP) as great ones 6+ IP, one or less ER).

 

Why? He has one great pitch, and one average pitch to to complement it. When it is great, so is he. When his great pitch is ineffective, so is he. This makes it much easier to anticipate what he is going to do. The league is starting to figure this out. And when his great pitch can be anticipated, it lessens its effectiveness.

 

Now he can keep going as is, but be inconsistent and go from being potentially great to mediocre. Or he can augment his repertoire by adding a pitch and regain some of the advantage he has lost.

 

Either way, he's still going to have great outings. But with some adjustment he can increase their frequency, and perhaps turn some of those garbage starts into quality ones.

[UK1679666180]

His FB is a plus pitch as well, just b/c it doesn't light up the gun, dive out of the zone, or cut doesn't mean it's average. It's a hard pitch to pick up out of the hand, it helps having that curve, but there's a boatload of swings and misses by the deception of that pitch. Even though it comes in at about 90, it probably looks 95 especially when guessing curve or trying to pick it out of the pitcher's box.

[brinoch]

Personally, I love the emotional yo-yoing many do with various players when they struggle. One week he's great, the next he's shark bait, etc. Trade him for peanuts, DFA him, send him to AAA. Where's the hate for Piniella keeping Rich in a crappy spot? While Rich may have thrown the pitches, it was clear that he had nothing. In such a situation, it is incumbent upon the manager to make a change to improve his team's chance of winning.

 

The bottom line is that Rich struggled yesterday, but he wasn't as awful as many make him out to have been (I was at the game, and I DVRed it, too). Hindsight is always 20/20, but I would have pulled Rich in the fifth inning (I annoyed my wife by commenting to this effect repeatedly). He was tired, struggling with command, and facing the heart of the Nationals order (such as it is) in Zimmerman, Young and Kearns with 1 out and runners on second and third. That was the right time to replace him, regardless of Lou's obsession about the impact on the 11 man bullpen.

 

Bring in Wuertz to face Zimmerman, Young and Kearns, and you have a good chance to end the inning with no damage. Zimmerman is prone to the strikeout this year -- 60 K's in 369 AB, and his splits against RH pitching indicate vulnerability (51 K and a line of .218/.266/.380). Granted, historically, Young is better from the left side of the plate, and if you are really worried about that, you walk Young by giving him nothing good to hit. You then face Kearns, who has a line of .243/.308/.342 against right-handed pitching.

 

Or you could walk Zimmerman, intentionally, giving up another baserunner for Young and go for the DP with a tiring Rich Hill who was giving up fly-ball after fly-ball yesterday.

 

Good managing is about giving your team the best chance to succeed and using the players you have available to best advantage. Lou did not do this on Wednesday, and it cost Hill and the Cubs a grand slam and turned a winnable ball game into a rout. Admittedly, the Cubs scored no runs, in the end, and perhaps it wouldn't have mattered. But, at the time, no knew the end result of the game, so taking the best percentage option to get out of the inning seems like the right course of action.

 

2-0 is better than 6-0, last time I checked.

[Guest]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's pretty deceiving to label Hill a 2 pitch guy. At the base he only throws a fastball and a curve, but I'm almost positive he throws 2 different curveballs(additionally, I've seen him drop down to throw a frisbee a couple times), and I think he intentionally throws his fastball at various speeds, much like the desired effect of a changeup.

 

That's what I thought as well....2 different curveballs, occasionally dropping down, and varied fastball speeds. I think his biggest problem is location - seems like alot of curveballs have hung over the heart of the plate lately.

 

Both of you are exactly right. He doesn't have the stuff that, say, Z has to get away with poor command and location.

 

It's odd that the league is apparently figuring Rich Hill out when the Atlanta Braves had 3 chances to figure him out and have failed miserably. His last few starts aren't as doom and gloom as some of you make it out to be.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Is it possible as Don Sutton noted on the Nationals broadcast that Hill may be tipping his pitches.

[UK1679666180]

He probably is tipping (prob. release point or glove positioning), it's up to the Cubs to find it over the break.

[Guest]

Is it possible as Don Sutton noted on the Nationals broadcast that Hill may be tipping his pitches.

 

With consecutive teams mentioning it, I would think it likely. It'd be super if Rothschild could use the ASB to fix that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Brenly brought that up the other day, IIRC he quoted Lou who said they looked at the tape and couldn't find anything that would indicate Hill was tipping his pitches.

[treebird]

MAKE ROB BOWEN TELL US OR KICK HIM OFF THE TEAM

[UK1679666180]

Brenly brought that up the other day, IIRC he quoted Lou who said they looked at the tape and couldn't find anything that would indicate Hill was tipping his pitches.

 

Consult Cito Gaston.

[CubColtPacer]

Brenly brought that up the other day, IIRC he quoted Lou who said they looked at the tape and couldn't find anything that would indicate Hill was tipping his pitches.

 

Yeah-they said Rothschild, Hill, and another person or two had been going over a lot of tape between starts but nobody had found anything yet that would indicate he's tipping. It's also interesting to note that apparently Bowen couldn't tell him anything about how the Padres managed to figure him out either.

[tfarks]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's pretty deceiving to label Hill a 2 pitch guy. At the base he only throws a fastball and a curve, but I'm almost positive he throws 2 different curveballs(additionally, I've seen him drop down to throw a frisbee a couple times), and I think he intentionally throws his fastball at various speeds, much like the desired effect of a changeup.

 

That's what I thought as well....2 different curveballs, occasionally dropping down, and varied fastball speeds. I think his biggest problem is location - seems like alot of curveballs have hung over the heart of the plate lately.

 

Both of you are exactly right. He doesn't have the stuff that, say, Z has to get away with poor command and location.

 

It's odd that the league is apparently figuring Rich Hill out when the Atlanta Braves had 3 chances to figure him out and have failed miserably. His last few starts aren't as doom and gloom as some of you make it out to be.

 

I as well am in this line of thinking. I don't buy the pitch tipping but I do with location. If he does not have pinpoint control with that curve thats when balls start leaving the yard. His opponents average is a meager 2.27, good for 11th in MLB. A .405 slugging against him is good for 47th in the league powered by 18 homers given up, 5th worst.

 

When he is throwing that curve over the middle of the plate far too often it is lifted out. With a 8.31 k/9 already along with a 1.14 WHIP if this man can start throwing a 3rd pitch effectively he could easily become lights out. If things go well that 3rd pitch (as long as you're not counting the different curves) will allow him to terrorize the NL along with big Z and we all will be happy campers.

 

Lets hope that Hill and Rothschild get this figured out because we will need good Hill badly for the 2nd half of the season, especially if bad Marquis shows up and Marshall's numbers even out.

[shnsajax]

Personally I don't think he needs to work on a changeup. His curveball already sits in the low to mid 70's. I would like to see something around a cutter.