Bases Loaded...nobody out.

[jersey cubs fan]

On average, teams score 2.3 runs when presented with the bases loaded nobody out... it kills me every time the Cubs fail to get even one.

 

Does anybody know that percentage of times you can expect at least one run?

 

From Tangotiger 99-02

 

With the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that:

0 runs score: 12.8%

1 run scores: 25.5%

2 runs score: 21.1%

3 runs score: 14.3%

4 runs score: 13.4%

5+ runs score: 13.0%

 

So the Cubs have been more likely to score more than 5 runs than 0 runs, and have consistently "beat" the odds...

 

Do those numbers take into account Cesar Izturis being one of the hitters?

 

Obviously not, but you bring up a good point. The Cubs didn't exactly have murderer's row coming up to deal with the situation. They had a very light hitting Theriot coming up, not exactly somebody you count on to drive one into the gap, or even fly out deep. They had Pie pinch hit and face a lefty, obviously not a great matchup. Then Fontenot faced a lefty. Fontenot probably had the best shot at flying out deep for a sac fly (but with MB on 3rd thats' no guarantee). What really hurt is no RH bats to offset Seattle's strong lefty presence in the bullpen. The Cubs still suck against lefties.

[UMFan83]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

[CubColtPacer]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

[UMFan83]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

 

Well I could do the 'hindsight is 20-20' thing and say that if we chose Hill, then he probably catches the throw from Pagan/Jones in the 13th. Plus Hill would not have been up with 2 outs in the 13th with the bases loaded.

[rawaction]

Shouldn't have taken the bat out of Floyd's hands in the 8th. Why pinch hit him w/ 1B open? Let Murton bat and maybe they pitch to him with the R-R matchup. If you want to pinch hit a LH hitter, go with Pie. Worst case scenario, they pitch to Pie because he's a rookie and he strikes out like he did later in the inning. If Murton or Pie gets out then you get a walk to Theriot and have Floyd hit with the bases loaded. Best case, they walk him and you have your fastest runner on base to break up a possible DP.

 

Basically by putting Floyd in for Murton an obvious intentional walk situation. Lou took the bats from Murton and Floyd and gave them to Theriot and Pie.

 

I know Floyd's been out a few days and Murton hasn't played this month, but that's a horrible, horrible decision.

[jersey cubs fan]

Shouldn't have taken the bat out of Floyd's hands in the 8th. Why pinch hit him w/ 1B open? Let Murton bat and maybe they pitch to him with the R-R matchup. If you want to pinch hit a LH hitter, go with Pie. Worst case scenario, they pitch to Pie because he's a rookie and he strikes out like he did later in the inning. If Murton or Pie gets out then you get a walk to Theriot and have Floyd hit with the bases loaded. Best case, they walk him and you have your fastest runner on base to break up a possible DP.

 

Basically by putting Floyd in for Murton an obvious intentional walk situation. Lou took the bats from Murton and Floyd and gave them to Theriot and Pie.

 

I know Floyd's been out a few days and Murton hasn't played this month, but that's a horrible, horrible decision.

 

Wow, good catch. I actually missed Floyd's AB, and wasn't paying that close attention anyway. But that's a great point. With 1st base open and other options available, using Floyd is a bad idea. Most likely situation is he is walked.

[BigbadB]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

 

Well I could do the 'hindsight is 20-20' thing and say that if we chose Hill, then he probably catches the throw from Pagan/Jones in the 13th. Plus Hill would not have been up with 2 outs in the 13th with the bases loaded.

 

The throw sucked. Very few catchers in baseball would have been able to pick up a slow rolling throw from the outfield, make a quick turn and apply the tag in one quick motion. Catcher's mitts were designed to catch balls thrown in the air, not to field grounders.

[gflore34]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a tough enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded. Edited June 13, 2007 by gflore34

[killthegoat06]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a time enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded.

 

Hornkohl? :D

[cubfan1955]

With the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that:

0 runs score: 12.8%

1 run scores: 25.5%

2 runs score: 21.1%

3 runs score: 14.3%

4 runs score: 13.4%

5+ runs score: 13.0%

Let me fix that for ya...

 

The Cubs...with the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that:

 

0 runs score: 99.9%

1 run scores: 00.1%

2 runs score: 00.0%

3 runs score: 00.0%

4 runs score: 00.0%

5+ runs score: 00.0%

[killthegoat06]

With the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that:

0 runs score: 12.8%

1 run scores: 25.5%

2 runs score: 21.1%

3 runs score: 14.3%

4 runs score: 13.4%

5+ runs score: 13.0%

Let me fix that for ya...

 

The Cubs...with the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that:

 

0 runs score: 99.9%

1 run scores: 00.1%

2 runs score: 00.0%

3 runs score: 00.0%

4 runs score: 00.0%

5+ runs score: 00.0%

 

Wow. That surprises me that it's more likely that 5+ runs score than 0 runs.

[CubColtPacer]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a tough enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded.

 

I can't sort it by the number of outs, but here is a quick summary of how the team has performed with the bases loaded.

 

Theriot has had the most opportunities-14. He is 1 for 14 with 1 BB and 4 RBI's.

DeRosa has had 12 chances. He is 4 for 12 with 1 HR, 3 BB's, and 13 RBI's.

Jones has had 12 chances. He is 3 for 12 with 1 3B, and 6 RBI's

Lee is 2 for 9 with 1 HR, 1 2B, and 7 RBI's.

Ramirez is 1 for 9 with 1 HR and 5 RBI's.

Izturis is 1 for 7 with 1 RBI

 

 

Nobody else has any more than 3 AB's with the bases loaded, and nobody else has a hit or a walk in that situation.

 

The Cubs team has a .203/.284/.407 line with the bases loaded (59 AB's).

[killthegoat06]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a tough enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded.

 

I can't sort it by the number of outs, but here is a quick summary of how the team has performed with the bases loaded.

 

Theriot has had the most opportunities-14. He is 1 for 14 with 1 BB and 4 RBI's.

DeRosa has had 12 chances. He is 4 for 12 with 1 HR, 3 BB's, and 13 RBI's.

Jones has had 12 chances. He is 3 for 12 with 1 3B, and 6 RBI's

Lee is 2 for 9 with 1 HR, 1 2B, and 7 RBI's.

Ramirez is 1 for 9 with 1 HR and 5 RBI's.

Izturis is 1 for 7 with 1 RBI

 

 

Nobody else has any more than 3 AB's with the bases loaded, and nobody else has a hit or a walk in that situation.

 

The Cubs team has a .203/.284/.407 line with the bases loaded (59 AB's).

 

I'm surprised it's over .200 :roll:

[gflore34]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a tough enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded.

 

I can't sort it by the number of outs, but here is a quick summary of how the team has performed with the bases loaded.

 

Theriot has had the most opportunities-14. He is 1 for 14 with 1 BB and 4 RBI's.

DeRosa has had 12 chances. He is 4 for 12 with 1 HR, 3 BB's, and 13 RBI's.

Jones has had 12 chances. He is 3 for 12 with 1 3B, and 6 RBI's

Lee is 2 for 9 with 1 HR, 1 2B, and 7 RBI's.

Ramirez is 1 for 9 with 1 HR and 5 RBI's.

Izturis is 1 for 7 with 1 RBI

 

 

Nobody else has any more than 3 AB's with the bases loaded, and nobody else has a hit or a walk in that situation.

 

The Cubs team has a .203/.284/.407 line with the bases loaded (59 AB's).

 

Thanks, I never thought Lee and Ramirez' combined 3-18 would bring down Jones', et al, 9-41. Nevertheless, 56% of the bases loaded at bats have been taken by Jones, Izturis and Theriot - this had played a large part in the Cubs inability to break open a game with the bases loaded.

[cubfan1955]

I wonder if a statistic is available for the number of at bats/player with the bases loaded in any out situation. For, it seems to me, Soriano, Pie, Lee and Ramirez do the job of getting on base for the likes of Jones, Barrett and Izturis i.e. people who a tough enough time getting on base in non-rbi situations let alone with the bases loaded.

 

I can't sort it by the number of outs, but here is a quick summary of how the team has performed with the bases loaded.

 

Theriot has had the most opportunities-14. He is 1 for 14 with 1 BB and 4 RBI's.

DeRosa has had 12 chances. He is 4 for 12 with 1 HR, 3 BB's, and 13 RBI's.

Jones has had 12 chances. He is 3 for 12 with 1 3B, and 6 RBI's

Lee is 2 for 9 with 1 HR, 1 2B, and 7 RBI's.

Ramirez is 1 for 9 with 1 HR and 5 RBI's.

Izturis is 1 for 7 with 1 RBI

 

 

Nobody else has any more than 3 AB's with the bases loaded, and nobody else has a hit or a walk in that situation.

 

The Cubs team has a .203/.284/.407 line with the bases loaded (59 AB's).

 

Thanks, I never thought Lee and Ramirez' combined 3-18 would bring down Jones', et al, 9-41. Nevertheless, 56% of the bases loaded at bats have been taken by Jones, Izturis and Theriot - this had played a large part in the Cubs inability to break open a game with the bases loaded.

That's why most teams try to avoid having automatic outs in the lineup. You can't hide them. I wish the Cubs would suscribe to this philosophy.

 

Meanwhile I don't see Soriano on the list. :shock:

[jjgman21]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

 

how about not going with an ill conceived all right handed lineup everytime they face a left handed starter, thus subjecting the all or nearly all left handed bench to bad matchups late in the game each and every time?

[jjgman21]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

 

Well I could do the 'hindsight is 20-20' thing and say that if we chose Hill, then he probably catches the throw from Pagan/Jones in the 13th. Plus Hill would not have been up with 2 outs in the 13th with the bases loaded.

 

The throw sucked. Very few catchers in baseball would have been able to pick up a slow rolling throw from the outfield, make a quick turn and apply the tag in one quick motion. Catcher's mitts were designed to catch balls thrown in the air, not to field grounders.

 

no no no. Paul Sullivan just told me it was a nice two hopper that should have been easily handled.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Thanks, I never thought Lee and Ramirez' combined 3-18 would bring down Jones', et al, 9-41. Nevertheless, 56% of the bases loaded at bats have been taken by Jones, Izturis and Theriot - this had played a large part in the Cubs inability to break open a game with the bases loaded.

 

Funniest thing about that........

 

Percentage of baserunners driven in........

 

04/02 - 06/12      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Theriot             18   70  0.205
Jones               17   91  0.157
Izturis              6   67  0.082

CUBS               215  953  0.184

[BigbadB]

no no no. Paul Sullivan just told me it was a nice two hopper that should have been easily handled.

 

hehe. Yeah, if that's the way you describe a throw that bounces twice before it ever makes it to the infield.

[Fred Hornkohl]

no no no. Paul Sullivan just told me it was a nice two hopper that should have been easily handled.

 

hehe. Yeah, if that's the way you describe a throw that bounces twice before it ever makes it to the infield.

 

Bruce Miles' account in the Daily Herald indicated that the throw bounced twice on the way to Barrett also.

[TheDude]

For what it is worth I thought Pie saw ball 6 in his at bat last night. I didn't think any of three pitches called strikes were in the zone. But that umpire had a wide zone all night anyway.

[Pushfrog98]

For what it is worth I thought Pie saw ball 6 in his at bat last night. I didn't think any of three pitches called strikes were in the zone. But that umpire had a wide zone all night anyway.

From the replay I saw of Pie's at bat, it looked like the ump had a wide strike zone. Batters should adjust to the zone over the course of the game, but since Pie came in as a pinch hitter and is young and trying to learn to be patient at the plate, I think he just didn't have the time to adjust to the "new" zone.

 

I can see the other side of a possible argument to that thought though, that he should have been watching the game and listening to the other hitters talk about the wide strike zone. I dunno... I didn't play ball after my freshman year of HS and that was like 14 years ago. I'm kind of out of the loop. What do y'all think?

 

 

edit: What do y'all think about my 2 different thoughts... not about me being out of the loop. :-)

[Fred Hornkohl]

For what it is worth I thought Pie saw ball 6 in his at bat last night. I didn't think any of three pitches called strikes were in the zone. But that umpire had a wide zone all night anyway.

 

Anytime you can walk 8 Chicago CUBS players in a single game, even a 13 inning game, you know the umpire's zone couldn't have been too wide !!!

[cubweiser03]

no no no. Paul Sullivan just told me it was a nice two hopper that should have been easily handled.

 

hehe. Yeah, if that's the way you describe a throw that bounces twice before it ever makes it to the infield.

 

And why does Jones do that exaggerated shoulder turn when makes his throws. Its like he thinks he is cocking his gun or something.

[jersey cubs fan]

The other situation that killed me is Lou Piniella being outmanaged into a situation where we had Jacque Jones facing a lefty in extra innings. Although he managed to get a lucky hit, it was poor coaching to put him in that situation by inserting him defensively the inning before. I know this has little to do with the topic but I wanted to get that off my chest

 

It was either double-switching Hill for Barrett, double-switching Jones for Pagan, or letting Howry hit for himself as the 2nd hitter in the 10th inning. Pick your poison.

 

how about not going with an ill conceived all right handed lineup everytime they face a left handed starter, thus subjecting the all or nearly all left handed bench to bad matchups late in the game each and every time?

 

Amen

 

 

I never liked this move. They don't go all LH against RHP, why always substitute all RH bats against LHP? Part of the problem is they have very little RH bench help. All the focus on the need for LH bats off the bench left them high and dry for RH bats. And we all know their biggest problem is facing LHP.