Josh Vitters

[CoolHandLuke]

He's already advanced to AA where he has a 295/405/560 line thus far. There's few hitters in the minors that I like as much as Longoria.

 

I thought you were an English teacher. :lol:

[jersey cubs fan]

ya i did, im saying that i dont think A-Rod is twice as good, yet twice the contract. ok but a better arguement would be that aramis will probably be better than a lot of 33 year olds who have gotten 3-4 year deals. I understand where one would be worried to giv someone with his history of health that deal tho

 

The point is, this isn't something to worry about in 2007. If, by the grace of God, Ramirez is healthy and chugging along and worthy of a 3 year extension come 2011, and Vitters is on the verge of breaking into the majors, then we can worry about position changes. Or, you trade Vitters for something else they need.

[SABR Gamer]

The draft is a crapshoot, absolutely nothing is for certain except there will be big surprises and big disappointments. Don't worry about it, especially how this year's draft will effect your favorite player, because it will only give you a headache.

 

 

ya it was a bad idea to televise the draft, its only going to make us waste our time thinking about guys that have a 1% chance of developing to their potential. I guess we are just used to drafts having the players who have a good chance to be the next big thing so its just relfex to think that way. I dont understand why its so hard to evaluate baseball talent, is it really that hard or do teams just not put enough effort into it?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

He's already advanced to AA where he has a 295/405/560 line thus far. There's few hitters in the minors that I like as much as Longoria.

 

I thought you were an English teacher. :lol:

 

I'm taking the summer off.

[Soriano12]

The draft is a crapshoot, absolutely nothing is for certain except there will be big surprises and big disappointments. .

 

True, but I think it is fair to say the Cubs fare pretty bad at the casino, compared to others.

[SABR Gamer]

ya i did, im saying that i dont think A-Rod is twice as good, yet twice the contract. ok but a better arguement would be that aramis will probably be better than a lot of 33 year olds who have gotten 3-4 year deals. I understand where one would be worried to giv someone with his history of health that deal tho

 

The point is, this isn't something to worry about in 2007. If, by the grace of God, Ramirez is healthy and chugging along and worthy of a 3 year extension come 2011, and Vitters is on the verge of breaking into the majors, then we can worry about position changes. Or, you trade Vitters for something else they need.

 

 

lol ya probably a waste of time to worry about because things would need to follow the plan to near perfection for this to be remotely possible

[jersey cubs fan]

ya it was a bad idea to televise the draft, its only going to make us waste our time thinking about guys that have a 1% chance of developing to their potential. I guess we are just used to drafts having the players who have a good chance to be the next big thing so its just relfex to think that way. I dont understand why its so hard to evaluate baseball talent, is it really that hard or do teams just not put enough effort into it?

 

I don't think it was a bad idea, they just have to keep repeating the message that this isn't the NFL and NBA.

 

I don't think it's about a lack of effort, I do think some people may be putting their effort into the wrong things. But baseball is a weird game. Baseball is a game where you need great skill, and lots of time to hone those skills into real baseball ability. Anything can derail a promising prospect, such as injury, drugs, lack of dedication, complacency, a glitch that opponents exploit, etc.

 

Baseball also drafts a ton of 17/18/19 year olds, while the NFL is strictly a 21/22 year old draft game. If you forced every baseball player to play 3 years of college, I think you'd see a much different result in the efficiency of the draft.

 

Look at your top 100 high school football recruit list, and then look what they are doing 5-6 years down the road. I think you'll see a lot of busts.

 

Check out of the 1st round QB draft picks and their success compared to 1st round pitchers.

[SouthSideRyan]

The draft is a crapshoot, absolutely nothing is for certain except there will be big surprises and big disappointments. .

 

True, but I think it is fair to say the Cubs fare pretty bad at the casino, compared to others.

 

How about the Red Sox?

[Moonlight Graham]

I read this thread and I keep reading things like "I am surprised we drafted him with ARAM" ect ect. In the MLB you do not draft based on the major league teams strengths/weaknesses. You draft the best player or your organizations as a whole weakness.

[SABR Gamer]

ya it was a bad idea to televise the draft, its only going to make us waste our time thinking about guys that have a 1% chance of developing to their potential. I guess we are just used to drafts having the players who have a good chance to be the next big thing so its just relfex to think that way. I dont understand why its so hard to evaluate baseball talent, is it really that hard or do teams just not put enough effort into it?

 

I don't think it was a bad idea, they just have to keep repeating the message that this isn't the NFL and NBA.

 

I don't think it's about a lack of effort, I do think some people may be putting their effort into the wrong things. But baseball is a weird game. Baseball is a game where you need great skill, and lots of time to hone those skills into real baseball ability. Anything can derail a promising prospect, such as injury, drugs, lack of dedication, complacency, a glitch that opponents exploit, etc.

 

Baseball also drafts a ton of 17/18/19 year olds, while the NFL is strictly a 21/22 year old draft game. If you forced every baseball player to play 3 years of college, I think you'd see a much different result in the efficiency of the draft.

 

Look at your top 100 high school football recruit list, and then look what they are doing 5-6 years down the road. I think you'll see a lot of busts.

 

Check out of the 1st round QB draft picks and their success compared to 1st round pitchers.

\

 

then y wouldnt they make a rule like that? wouldnt it make the draft more efficient? the players would still get here, they just would have a higher chance of really working out

[jersey cubs fan]

then y wouldnt they make a rule like that? wouldnt it make the draft more efficient? the players would still get here, they just would have a higher chance of really working out

 

It would severaly hinder the minor league baseball business, by virtually eliminating the need for many sub A ball teams. College baseball doesn't come close to drawing enough revenue to pay scholarships to all the really good 18 year olds that would otherwise choose to go pro out of high school. You would end up losing a ton of talent overall. And there just isn't enough economic incentive for them to do it, I guess.

[CoolHandLuke]

ya it was a bad idea to televise the draft, its only going to make us waste our time thinking about guys that have a 1% chance of developing to their potential. I guess we are just used to drafts having the players who have a good chance to be the next big thing so its just relfex to think that way. I dont understand why its so hard to evaluate baseball talent, is it really that hard or do teams just not put enough effort into it?

 

I don't think it was a bad idea, they just have to keep repeating the message that this isn't the NFL and NBA.

 

I don't think it's about a lack of effort, I do think some people may be putting their effort into the wrong things. But baseball is a weird game. Baseball is a game where you need great skill, and lots of time to hone those skills into real baseball ability. Anything can derail a promising prospect, such as injury, drugs, lack of dedication, complacency, a glitch that opponents exploit, etc.

 

Baseball also drafts a ton of 17/18/19 year olds, while the NFL is strictly a 21/22 year old draft game. If you forced every baseball player to play 3 years of college, I think you'd see a much different result in the efficiency of the draft.

 

Look at your top 100 high school football recruit list, and then look what they are doing 5-6 years down the road. I think you'll see a lot of busts.

 

Check out of the 1st round QB draft picks and their success compared to 1st round pitchers.

\

 

then y wouldnt they make a rule like that? wouldnt it make the draft more efficient? the players would still get here, they just would have a higher chance of really working out

 

Two reasons come to my mind: 1) Teams want to develop their own players as opposed to letting the colleges do it. 2) Players want their paydays without risking injury/suckiness in college. Since both sides have good reason to keep it the way it is, there is not going to be a change.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I'm far from an expert on the guy.

 

But don't expect to see him hit the majors for 4-5 years, at least.

 

We should be happy if he does this:

 

2007 - AZL rookie

2008 - Peoria low A

2009 - Daytona high A

2010 - Tenn AA

2011 - Iowa AAA, possible September callup.

 

This would be steady, but not overly conservative, given that he'd make the majors at 22.

 

There's no reason to worry about position, he should go to 3rd and hopefully stick there, since his bat is worth much less as a corner OF.

 

I think the "closest high schooler to the majors" makes it in 4 years or less - unless he has injury problems. The Cubs org has no problem with fast tracking and promoting players quickly.

 

His bat isn't worth much less as a corner OF.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_spectrum

[Outshined_One]

Not directly related to him, but who have been previously 3rd overall picks in the last 10 years?

 

06 - Evan Longoria (SS, Tampa)

05 - Jeff Clement (C, Mariners)

04 - Philip Humber (P, Mets)

03 - Kyle Sleeth (P, Tigers)

02 - Chris Gruler (P, Reds)

01 - Dewon Brazelton (P, Tampa)

00 - Luis Montanez (SS, COBS)

99 - Eric Munson (C-1B, Tigers)

98 - Corey Patterson (OF, COBS)

97 - Troy Glaus (3B, Anaheim)

 

ok so here

 

07 - Josh Vitters (3B, Cubs) - cross your fingers and hope hes even 80% of what hes said to be.

06 - Evan Longoria (SS, Tampa) - Too early to tell unless something bad i dont know about happened

05 - Jeff Clement (C, Mariners) - too early to tell?

04 - Philip Humber (P, Mets) - looks like a bust

03 - Kyle Sleeth (P, Tigers) - bust

02 - Chris Gruler (P, Reds) - bust

01 - Dewon Brazelton (P, Tampa) - bust

00 - Luis Montanez (SS, Cubs) - bust

99 - Eric Munson (C-1B, Tigers) - bust

98 - Corey Patterson (OF, Cubs) - still waiting to see how the next year or two go

97 - Troy Glaus (3B, Anaheim) - only guy on the list who turned out near as good as the picks hype

 

 

great this was as far from encouraging as it gets

 

Where a guy is picked has absolutely no relationship to how well he performs. You can go all across the spectrum from guys who were picked #1 overall and fell flat on their faces to guys who were picked in the 20th round and turned out to be surprisingly good.

 

My personal philosophy is this, and my understanding is that this is a common philosophy in all sports. When you are drafting, you always take the best guy on the board, regardless of need. You absolutely never know what the future will hold for your team. Perhaps A-Ram will still be an All Star-quality 3B by the time he reaches 33. Perhaps not.

 

In either case, Vitters is incredibly valuable to the team if he progresses as expected. If he has developed to the point where most people project him to hit over .300 and be a 30-35 HR a year guy, the Cubs will find a place to play him, A-Ram or not. Moreover, other teams might have strong interest in him if he is hitting that well. That kind of a bat could fetch a terrific return in a trade if the Cubs are in the market for any position.

 

Now, whatever the result may be, we will not know for at least another three years. Things happen to guys, both good and bad, and none of us can correctly predict where Vitters will end up when all is said and done. For now, it'll be fun seeing how he develops.

[sunnydoo]

98 - Corey Patterson (OF, Cubs) - still waiting to see how the next year or two go

 

Huh?

 

2007 .214/.273/.569

Career .254/.295/.706

 

He is a bum- always has been and never will be.

[Guest]

98 - Corey Patterson (OF, Cubs) - still waiting to see how the next year or two go

 

Huh?

 

2007 .214/.273/.569

Career .254/.295/.706

 

He is a bum- always has been and never will be.

 

Anyone who slugs .706 for his career has to be pretty good, right? :)

[Derwood]

My projection

 

2007 Rookie

2008 - Peoria

2009 - Daytona

2009 -Peoria

2010 - Peoria

2011 - Released by Cubs

 

no injury rehabs?

[abuck1220]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

[Outshined_One]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

 

Ron Santo signed as an 18/19 year old in 1959 and was called up in 1960! :D

[SABR Gamer]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

 

ya lol, im sure hes ready those high school pitchers are all u need to be ready for the pros, vitters is gonna be really damn good tho, from what i have read today he is projected to be a .290-.310 hitter with 35-40 homer power

[SaorsaDaonnan]

He's already advanced to AA where he has a 295/405/560 line thus far. There's few hitters in the minors that I like as much as Longoria.

 

I thought you were an English teacher. :lol:

 

I'm taking the summer off.

 

 

Well played.

[jyoung55]

The draft is a crapshoot, absolutely nothing is for certain except there will be big surprises and big disappointments. .

 

True, but I think it is fair to say the Cubs fare pretty bad at the casino, compared to others.

 

Well I'm glad you realized that my analogy was designed to allay concerns that sounded as though they were from a person, much like most of us, who is more used to the NFL or NBA draft than the MLB draft.

 

But WOW! You sure made your point! Congratulations, Poster of the Year is in order I think.

[imb]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

 

from what i have read today he is projected to be a .290-.310 hitter with 35-40 homer power

 

Yeah, maybe if you total up two seasons.

[abuck1220]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

 

ya lol, im sure hes ready those high school pitchers are all u need to be ready for the pros, vitters is gonna be really damn good tho, from what i have read today he is projected to be a .290-.310 hitter with 35-40 homer power

 

i read he is projected to be jesus.

[Sarcastic]

i think the cubs drafted vitters b/c ramirez got hurt and they knew he was going to be out this weekend. expect a quick sign and call-up.

 

ya lol, im sure hes ready those high school pitchers are all u need to be ready for the pros, vitters is gonna be really damn good tho, from what i have read today he is projected to be a .290-.310 hitter with 35-40 homer power

 

i read he is projected to be jesus.

 

How's Jesus' plate discipline these days?