2008 Draft Discussion Thread

[badnews]

It's already stated the highest that the Kendall pick could be is 35, the lowest it could be is 41.

[wvcbxl]

It's already stated the highest that the Kendall pick could be is 35, the lowest it could be is 41.

 

That's a very nice block to be picking in. :D

 

A big thanks to mr Kendall and the Brewers.

[craig]

It's already stated the highest that the Kendall pick could be is 35, the lowest it could be is 41.

 

Who stated that, and where?

 

It isn't true. Four Type A's have already switched teams (Glavine, Cordero, Hunter, and Linebrink), and will give picks ahead of Kendall. Percival will give a B pick ahead of Kendall, brocail a B behind. So if every other free agent resigns with their own team or gets non-arbed tomorrow, Kendall's pick would be #36, I think. But there are still at least 6 Type A guys left, and around 20 Type B's left. So Kendall's pick can easily be bumped well lower than #41.

 

Obviously some of those Type B's will be from teams who had better records than us, so those picks will come after Kendall's. And obviously some/most of the FA's will not generate comp picks, either because they resign with original team or because original team does not offer arb. So given how weak and small the FA class is this winter, I think kendall may well get us a pick in the mid-40's.

 

But 35-41, that's not right.

 

Arb-offer day is tomorrow, Dec 1. So if we go to the work, we'll have a much better grasp of how many comp-eligible FA's will still be out there after the weekend.

[badnews]

It isn't true... Percival will give a B pick ahead of Kendall, brocail a B behind. But there are still at least 6 Type A guys left, and around 20 Type B's left. So Kendall's pick can easily be bumped well lower than #41.

But 35-41, that's not right.

 

Uh, are you sure that's not right? Because what you wrote doesn't look right from what I'm seeing.

 

Barry Bonds is one of those Type A guys. I'm going to say he doesn't draw a compensation draft pick. Andy Pettitte is either going back to the Yankees or retiring. No pick.

 

The Elias Rankings:

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

 

Baseball America's column:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/265239.html

 

Barrett, Bradley, and Rowand are the only Type As I see left on that list. A-Rod already signed. I don't think we need to worry about Barry Bonds. Even counting Barry and Pettitte, we're talking 5. Where did you come up with the figure "at least six?"

 

I don't understand how Percival gets a pick ahead of Kendall. I've seen it written a number of times that the picks are handed out according to rating.

 

Jason Kendall 68.919 B

Troy Percival 60.993 B

 

Kendall's rating is higher than Percival's. Kendall's comp pick would therefore come before Percival's.

 

The remaining free agents with higher ratings than Kendall's are:

 

Luis Gonzalez, Aaron Rowand, Luis Vizcaino, Paul Lo Duca, Milton Bradley, and Michael Barrett.

 

Kendall's pick is right now #35. If all six of those players are offered arbitration and switch teams, Kendall's pick would drop 6 places, to #41. That's the lowest it could go.

 

Carlos Silva 53.968

Andruw Jones 66.742 B

 

Just examples: Carlos Silva brings back no draft picks no matter what, and Andruw Jones is rated lower than Jason Kendall. In any event I've heard the Braves aren't offering him arbitration anyway. But the point is, according to the Elias rankings, none of the guys I'm guessing you think should draw ahead of Kendall will draw ahead except the 6 listed above.

 

If none of them sign the Kendall pick remains at #35. If all of them get arb and sign elsewhere, #41. Hence the #35-41 range.

 

I've seen this posted in a number of places and no one has shown why it's wrong yet. I'd like to think it's true because it's a nice pick. But if someone can prove it wrong, go ahead, so we can figure out what's what.

[craig]

It isn't true... Percival will give a B pick ahead of Kendall, brocail a B behind. But there are still at least 6 Type A guys left, and around 20 Type B's left. So Kendall's pick can easily be bumped well lower than #41.

But 35-41, that's not right.

 

Uh, are you sure that's not right? Because what you wrote doesn't look right from what I'm seeing.

 

...I don't understand how Percival gets a pick ahead of Kendall. I've seen it written a number of times that the picks are handed out according to rating. .....

 

Yes, I'm sure. What you've seen written a number of times isn't right. The way it works is that the sandwich is subdivided between A's and B's. The A's come first. Within the A's, it's based on the record of the team who lost the guys, not on the relative score of the player. Same for the B's. Just as the Cardinals will draft in the 1st round ahead of us, because their record was worse, so also they will draft ahead of us in the B-section of the sandwich round. Even though Kendall outscored Percival, that doesn't matter. Both were B's, and the Cards draft ahead of us in the B round just as they do in every other.

 

I don't have a link to this rule, so of course you are free to doubt it until you see it confirmed by a more official source. I'm not sure where to get a detailed presentation.

 

But as evidence, think about the Juan Pierre pick we got last draft. We got the very first B-pick in that draft. (The Donaldson sandwich pick came immediately after the A picks.) It was because we had the worse record of the B-picking teams, not because Pierre was the highest scoring B. (You can find the Elias scores from last year to confirm this.)

 

And last year was already operating under the most recent union contract, so the Pierre precedent is relevant to the current rules.

[craig]

Does anybody have an official link listing all of who were and weren't offered arbitration? That will be helpful in evaluating which picks go ahead of kendall and which behind. The only two keys that were not arbed that I've seen were Milton Bradley and A Jones, both of whom would have yielded picks ahead of Kendall.

[badnews]

Well congrats, you're the first person on the internet to catch that apparently. It certainly isn't very well publicized but what you say fits, though I don't think there were as many Type As left when you said, so that's good for us.

 

It makes the scores inside the A and B grades seem a little pointless though. It's disappointing to hear this but it's a Jason Kendall compensation pick - how much complaining can we do? Anyway thanks for clearing this up and setting the record straight.

[craig]

badnews, I forgot to mention one factor. If a team gets multiple A or B picks, then the 2nd's (or thirds) come after the other teams have received one. Badly phrased. In current case, both Houston and Oakland are potentiall entitled to 2 B picks, if their arbed B's all sign elsewhere.

 

Each would get their first B pick before Kendall, based on team record. Both Kendall would precede their 2nd B picks, which will come at the back of the B group.

 

By the way, here is a post that is relevant and I believe accurate. The good news is that Kendall will come no later than 43, and could well come as high as 41 or 40. 43 is worst case, and if guys like Barrett, Feliz, or Mahay resign, Kendall-pick could move even higher. As you say, it's really awesome that we're getting that good a pick for Kendall.

 

Basically it comes down to Blevins for a 40-ish pick and a few months of Kendall's service which helped us make the playoffs. Blevins may end up better than the sandwich. But I can't complain much about that at all.

 

"Reb66 - Dec 2, 2007 9:56 pm (#2270 of 2275)

This is Keith Law's projection of the sandwich round order.

 

 

>The sandwich round's order, assuming all of the remaining free agents who were offered arbitration sign with other clubs, would be the following:>>

 

 

31. Minnesota (for Torii Hunter)

 

32. Milwaukee (for Francisco Cordero)

 

33. NY Mets (for Tom Glavine)

 

34. Philadelphia (for Aaron Rowand)

 

35. San Diego (for Michael Barrett)

 

36. Milwaukee (for Scott Linebrink)

 

37. Kansas City (for David Riske)

 

38. San Francisco (for Pedro Feliz)

 

39. Houston (for Mark Loretta/Trever Miller)

 

40. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza)

 

41. St. Louis (for Troy Percival)

 

42. Atlanta (for Ron Mahay)

 

43. Chicago Cubs (for Jason Kendall)

 

44. San Diego (for Doug Brocail)

 

45. Arizona (for Livan Hernandez)

 

46. NY Yankees (for Luis Vizcaino)

 

47. Boston (for Eric Gagne)

 

48. Houston (for Mark Loretta/Trever Miller)

 

49. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza)

 

50. San Diego (for Mike Cameron) "

[Guest]

Well congrats, you're the first person on the internet to catch that apparently. It certainly isn't very well publicized but what you say fits, though I don't think there were as many Type As left when you said, so that's good for us.

 

It makes the scores inside the A and B grades seem a little pointless though. It's disappointing to hear this but it's a Jason Kendall compensation pick - how much complaining can we do? Anyway thanks for clearing this up and setting the record straight.

Actually, this was discussed last year on this forum.

[craig]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3137870

 

List of guys offered arb, for later reference.

[Guest]

As of yesterday, per Jim Callis:

 

First-Round Picks

18. Mets (Tom Glavine, A, to Atl)

27. Twins (Torii Hunter, A, to LAA)

Supplemental First-Round Picks

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Franciso Cordero, A, to Cin)

33. Mets (Glavine)

34. Brewers (Scott Linebrink, A, to CWS)

35. Cubs (Jason Kendall, B, to Mil)

36. Cardinals (Troy Percival, B, to TB)

37. Padres (Doug Brocail, B, to Hou)

Second-Round Changes

44. Brewers (Cordero to Cin)

45. Brewers (Linebrink to CWS)

69a. Braves (for failure to sign 2007 second-rounder Joshua Fields)

84a. Red Sox (for failure to sign 2007 second-rounder Hunter Morris)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks

100. Phillies (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Brandon Workman)

101. Astros (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Derek Dietrich)

102. Padres (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Tommy Toledo)

103. Angels (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Matt Harvey)

Remaining Possible Compensation Free Agents

Ari: Livan Hernandez (B).

Atl: LHP Ron Mahay (B).

Bos: RHP Eric Gagne (B).

Hou: INF Mark Loretta (B), RHP Trever Miller (B).

KC: RHP David Riske (B).

NYY: LHP Andy Pettitte (A), RHP Luis Vizcaino (B).

Oak: C Mike Piazza (B), OF Shannon Stewart (B).

Phi: OF Aaron Rowand (A).

SD: C Michael Barrett (A), OF Mike Cameron (B).

SF: 3B Pedro Feliz (B).

[RammyFanny]

As of yesterday, per Jim Callis:

 

First-Round Picks

18. Mets (Tom Glavine, A, to Atl)

27. Twins (Torii Hunter, A, to LAA)

Supplemental First-Round Picks

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Franciso Cordero, A, to Cin)

33. Mets (Glavine)

34. Brewers (Scott Linebrink, A, to CWS)

35. Cubs (Jason Kendall, B, to Mil)

36. Cardinals (Troy Percival, B, to TB)

37. Padres (Doug Brocail, B, to Hou)

Second-Round Changes

44. Brewers (Cordero to Cin)

45. Brewers (Linebrink to CWS)

69a. Braves (for failure to sign 2007 second-rounder Joshua Fields)

84a. Red Sox (for failure to sign 2007 second-rounder Hunter Morris)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks

100. Phillies (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Brandon Workman)

101. Astros (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Derek Dietrich)

102. Padres (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Tommy Toledo)

103. Angels (for failure to sign 2007 third-rounder Matt Harvey)

Remaining Possible Compensation Free Agents

Ari: Livan Hernandez (B).

Atl: LHP Ron Mahay (B).

Bos: RHP Eric Gagne (B).

Hou: INF Mark Loretta (B), RHP Trever Miller (B).

KC: RHP David Riske (B).

NYY: LHP Andy Pettitte (A), RHP Luis Vizcaino (B).

Oak: C Mike Piazza (B), OF Shannon Stewart (B).

Phi: OF Aaron Rowand (A).

SD: C Michael Barrett (A), OF Mike Cameron (B).

SF: 3B Pedro Feliz (B).

That looks quite juicy.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'd just like to say that it is hilarious the cubs get almost a first round pick for losing washed-up jason kendall

[Guest]

But will that pick turn out more valuable than Blevins?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

But will that pick turn out more valuable than Blevins?

 

I'm willing to take that chance. Relievers break out all the time, as evidenced by Blevins himself, a 17th rounder.

[CuseCubFan69]

But will that pick turn out more valuable than Blevins?

 

That's why scouts make the big bucks, GM's make the hard calls like this and scouts make it better for the organization by picking a better prospect.

[BigbadB]

Nice haul by the Mets for Glavine.

[BigbadB]

Here's my question......

 

San Diego offered Barrett arby. He's likely to get about 5m if he wins his arbitration case. That's an awfully expensive back up C for San Diego.

 

Isn't this the identical thing that the Padres did with Todd Walker last year?

 

So, when Barrett wins or loses his case, yet still takes his chances that he'd make more accepting arbitration from the Pads, they can elect to just cut him rather than give him the 5m?

 

This really angered me with how Todd Walker was treated last year. They offer him arby in the hopes some team is dumb enough to give up draft picks to sign him early. Nobody does, Padres lose in arby and then just dump the player like yesterday's news, and aren't responsible for the arby amount ordered.

 

I don't get that.

 

And not only did the Padres dump Walker and his arby judgment, but they didn't decide to do it until after they landed Marcus Giles, thereby limiting Walker's options of landing a decent gig somewhere else.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=695

 

BP mock draft/top 10.

[CubColtPacer]

Here's my question......

 

San Diego offered Barrett arby. He's likely to get about 5m if he wins his arbitration case. That's an awfully expensive back up C for San Diego.

 

Isn't this the identical thing that the Padres did with Todd Walker last year?

 

So, when Barrett wins or loses his case, yet still takes his chances that he'd make more accepting arbitration from the Pads, they can elect to just cut him rather than give him the 5m?

 

This really angered me with how Todd Walker was treated last year. They offer him arby in the hopes some team is dumb enough to give up draft picks to sign him early. Nobody does, Padres lose in arby and then just dump the player like yesterday's news, and aren't responsible for the arby amount ordered.

 

I don't get that.

 

And not only did the Padres dump Walker and his arby judgment, but they didn't decide to do it until after they landed Marcus Giles, thereby limiting Walker's options of landing a decent gig somewhere else.

 

I think in this case the Padres don't think it's realistic for Barrett to accept arbitration. They are offering him that because they expect he will be gone and want the draft pick, while in Walker's case they were simply hopeful that he would sign somewhere.

 

If Barrett does agree to arbitration, yes they will likely try to either trade or cut him after the arbitration hearing. Remember though, there's a risk for the Padres as well. When they cut him, they have to pay him 1/6 of his salary, so it could be almost a 1 million dollar mistake. Barrett runs the risk of them doing that, but his worst case scenario is that he makes almost a million from the Padres and then becomes a free agent at the beginning of 2008.

[RammyFanny]

Barrett accepted the arby. I'm still catching on to this exact process; is that good or bad for our supp.?

[Outshined_One]

Barrett accepted the arby. I'm still catching on to this exact process; is that good or bad for our supp.?

 

It depends on whether they sign Barrett. If they do, it's good for us.

[RammyFanny]

Eric Gagne told the Red Sox that he won't their offer of arbitration. The Boras camp had sent signals otherwise, but it was an idle threat. He wants that multiyear deal or at least a chance to close. The Red Sox get a delicious sandwich pick for their dalliance with Gagne. Could've been more, if Gagne was lights out for them and snagged Type A status.

 

Mark Loretta accepted; Trever Miller declined. Loretta should make $3MM+ to take on a utility role. The Astros could always still trade him to a team looking for second base help. As for Miller, he could still return. The Astros will get a sandwich pick if he leaves.

 

Ron Mahay declined the Braves' offer. No surprise since he's looking for three years. You have to consider their sandwich pick as an added benefit of the Teixeira trade.

[craig]

This is an adjusted list based on a previous Keith Law projection of the sandwich round order, given some signings.

This assumes all of the remaining free agents who were offered arbitration sign with other clubs, which may not be true. Philly still hopes to resign Rowand, I have no idea what's up with Feliz or Trever Miller or Mike Cameron, for example.

 

31. Minnesota (for Torii Hunter, A)

32. Milwaukee (for Francisco Cordero, A)

33. NY Mets (for Tom Glavine, A)

34. Philadelphia (for Aaron Rowand, A)

35. Milwaukee (for Scott Linebrink, A)

36. Kansas City (for David Riske B)

37. San Francisco (for Pedro Feliz)

38. Houston (for Trever Miller)

39. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza)

40. St. Louis (for Troy Percival)

41. Atlanta (for Ron Mahay)

42. Chicago Cubs (for Jason Kendall)

43. San Diego (for Doug Brocail)

44. Arizona (for Livan Hernandez)

45. NY Yankees (for Luis Vizcaino)

46. Boston (for Eric Gagne)

47. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza)

48. San Diego (for Mike Cameron)

[RammyFanny]

I really like what i'm hearing about Harold Martinez (prep SS/3b).