2008 Draft Discussion Thread

CuseCubFan69 · May 12, 2008

OK...time for my annual Tinker to Evers question....speaking that, where has he been? Anywho...who are the top kids in New York this year? Any Central NY kids?

UK1679666180 · May 13, 2008

OK...time for my annual Tinker to Evers question....speaking that, where has he been? Anywho...who are the top kids in New York this year? Any Central NY kids?

HS:

1. Jean Carlos Rodriguez C Sr. R-R 5-10 192 George Washington Bronx 3-27-89

2. Stanley Fich OF Sr. R-R 6-4 215 Fieldston Bronx Tulane

3. Phil Pohl C Sr. R-R 5-11 195 Cooperstown Central Cooperstown Clemson 7-22-90

4. Charley Thurber OF Sr. L-L 6-4 220 Elmira Free Academy Elmira Tennessee 12-28-89

5. Sean Nolin LHP Sr. L-L 6-3 235 Seaford Seaford San Jacinto JC 12-26-89

6. Eddie Medina RHP Sr. L-R 6-1 165 Moore Staten Island St. John's 2-12-90

7. Joe Panik SS Sr. L-R 6-1 175 John Jay Hopewell Junction St. John's 10-30-90

8. Danny Lackner 1B Sr. R-R 6-3 210 St. Dominic New Hyde Park Texas A&M-CC

9. Ryan Houghtalen RHP Sr. R-R 6-1 190 McQuaid Jesuit Penfield Vermont 6-7-90

10. Alex Maruri 3B Sr. R-R 5-11 205 Archbishop Stepinac Bronx Elon 2-6-90

11. Matt Zink OF Sr. R-R 5-11 170 Syosset Muttontown 6-7-90

12. Jerry Battipaglia RHP Sr. R-R 6-6 220 Somers Katonah Villanova 2-4-90

13. Alek Brown LHP Sr. R-L 5-10 160 Thomas Edison Elmira 8-30-90

14. Alex Adami RHP Sr. R-R 5-10 185 Iona Prep Thornwood Binghamton 7-16-90

15. Mark Skrapits RHP Sr. R-R 6-2 175 Regis Bronx 12-18-89

16. Jose Aponte LHP Sr. L-L 6-3 200 DeWitt Clinton Bronx

17. Jake Colavito 3B Sr. L-R 6-2 210 Guilderland Schenectady Stetson 12-16-89

18 Stephen Rivera RHP Sr. R-R 6-1 200 Monsignor Farrell Staten Island St. John's 8-4-90

CuseCubFan69 · May 14, 2008

OK...time for my annual Tinker to Evers question....speaking that, where has he been? Anywho...who are the top kids in New York this year? Any Central NY kids?

HS:

1. Jean Carlos Rodriguez C Sr. R-R 5-10 192 George Washington Bronx 3-27-89

2. Stanley Fich OF Sr. R-R 6-4 215 Fieldston Bronx Tulane
3. Phil Pohl C Sr. R-R 5-11 195 Cooperstown Central Cooperstown Clemson 7-22-90
4. Charley Thurber OF Sr. L-L 6-4 220 Elmira Free Academy Elmira Tennessee 12-28-89
5. Sean Nolin LHP Sr. L-L 6-3 235 Seaford Seaford San Jacinto JC 12-26-89

6. Eddie Medina RHP Sr. L-R 6-1 165 Moore Staten Island St. John's 2-12-90
7. Joe Panik SS Sr. L-R 6-1 175 John Jay Hopewell Junction St. John's 10-30-90
8. Danny Lackner 1B Sr. R-R 6-3 210 St. Dominic New Hyde Park Texas A&M-CC
9. Ryan Houghtalen RHP Sr. R-R 6-1 190 McQuaid Jesuit Penfield Vermont 6-7-90
10. Alex Maruri 3B Sr. R-R 5-11 205 Archbishop Stepinac Bronx Elon 2-6-90
11. Matt Zink OF Sr. R-R 5-11 170 Syosset Muttontown 6-7-90
12. Jerry Battipaglia RHP Sr. R-R 6-6 220 Somers Katonah Villanova 2-4-90
13. Alek Brown LHP Sr. R-L 5-10 160 Thomas Edison Elmira 8-30-90
14. Alex Adami RHP Sr. R-R 5-10 185 Iona Prep Thornwood Binghamton 7-16-90
15. Mark Skrapits RHP Sr. R-R 6-2 175 Regis Bronx 12-18-89
16. Jose Aponte LHP Sr. L-L 6-3 200 DeWitt Clinton Bronx
17. Jake Colavito 3B Sr. L-R 6-2 210 Guilderland Schenectady Stetson 12-16-89
18 Stephen Rivera RHP Sr. R-R 6-1 200 Monsignor Farrell Staten Island St. John's 8-4-90

Thanks Ping. Phil Pohl played on my buddies travel team, he's a heck of a catcher.

UK1679666180 · May 15, 2008

Here are the college kids for NY

1. Scott Barnes LHP Jr. L-L 6-4 190 St. John's Springfield, Mass. Nationals '05 (43) 9-5-87

2. Bobby Lanigan RHP Jr. R-R 6-4 215 Adelphi Staten Island Never drafted 5-5-87

3. Eric Beaulac RHP Jr. R-R 6-6 210 LeMoyne Troy Never drafted 11-13-86

4. Tom Koehler RHP Sr. R-R 6-3 235 Stony Brook New Rochelle Never drafted 6-26-86

5. Jared Yecker RHP Jr. R-R 6-6 225 St. John's Millersville, Pa. Never drafted 12-18-86

6. Justin Gutsie RHP Jr. R-R 6-0 175 St. John's Freeland, Pa. Never drafted 1-7-87

7. Colin Lynch RHP Jr. R-R 5-11 170 St. John's Manchester, N.H. Never drafted 8-30-85

8. Kevin Mahoney 3B Jr. L-R 5-11 209 Canisius Miller Place Never drafted 5-11-87

9. Tim Alberts OF Sr. R-R 6-3 200 Niagara Baldwinsville Never drafed 9-3-867

10. George Brown LHP Sr. L-L 6-1 195 St. John's Syracuse Never drafted 6-18-86

11. Tom Davis RHP Sr. R-R 6-2 195 Fordham Madison, Conn. Never drafted 6-3-86

12. Jeff Dennis LHP Jr. L-L 6-6 215 Binghamton North Syracuse Never drafted 11-5-87

13. Eric Johnson RHP Jr. R-R 6-5 225 New York Tech Sunnyside Never drafted 3-23-87

14. Cole White OF/RHP Sr. R-R 6-2 200 Army Midland, Texas Never drafted 4-3-85

15. Mike Avery OF Jr. R-R 6-3 195 Cortland State Cortland Never drafted 4-28-87

16. Pete Kennelly RHP Jr. R-R 6-3 185 Fordham Pearl River Never drafted 11-15-87

17. Matt Nevins RHP Sr. R-R 6-1 180 Manhattan Beacon Never drafted

18. Alex McKenzie RHP Jr. R-R 6-0 180 Canisius Keswick, Ontario Never drafted 4-23-87

19. Shane Wolf LHP Sr. L-L 6-3 225 Ithaca Lansing Never drafted

20. George Jweid LHP Jr. L-L 6-2 200 Cortland State New Hartford Never drafted 5-26-87

21. Kevin Reimer C Jr. L-R 6-0 193 Canisius Steinbach, Manitoba Never drafted 3-3-86

22. Gary Novakowski RHP 5/Sr. R-R 6-4 215 Stony Brook Prospect, Conn. Never drafted 6-15-85

23. Nate Novak RHP Jr. R-R 6-3 235 Albany Hudson Never drafted

24. Matt Moberg LHP Jr. R-L 6-1 165 Siena State College, Pa. Never drafted

CuseCubFan69 · May 15, 2008

Ping...thanks for that, I have one kid on that list. There isn't a mad rush to draft a senior in college due to them having little leverage, correct? Unless they are a stud season of course.

McAneney (P Virginia) can't be drafted this year?

UK1679666180 · May 15, 2008

Being that they are a Senior and therefore more signable helps more than hurts.

McAnaney can be drafted this year and will likely be drafted.

UK1679666180 · May 16, 2008

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=407

Scheppers out with an stress fracture in his right (throwing) shoulder which will likely cause him to drop.

May 19, 2008

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top50_51208.aspx

No Cole, Melville or Meyer. Meanwhile, BA has all 3 in their top 20.

Outshined_One · May 21, 2008

Jonathan Mayo has a projection of the first 20 picks up.

Projection

19. Chicago Cubs: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.
Along with Collier and Hewitt, Lawrie is another high school hitter who has been moving up the charts rather quickly. Scouts love his bat and he's showing more and more people that he's got the tools to stay behind the plate while being athletic enough to even play center field if a team wanted to go that route. The Cubs, by the way, could also be interested in Collier here or perhaps even shortstop Casey Kelly from Sarasota, Fla.

Some more info on Lawrie...

Callis

If Hewitt has a rival for the player making the biggest jump into the first round, it's Brett Lawrie, a product of Brookswood Secondary School in Langley, B.C. The MVP of Canada's junior national team in 2007, Lawrie is one of the most gifted high school hitters in this draft. He has the ability to hit for power and average, along with an advanced approach and plate discipline for his age.

As with Hewitt, Lawrie doesn't come without questions. It's still uncertain what position he'll play. The best-case scenario is catcher. Lawrie has the arm strength and soft enough hands to make it work behind the plate, but he's also raw back there. Third base is another possibility, as is left field. Obviously, the lesser the position he plays, the more that will be expected out of his bat.

While Lawrie isn't a consensus first-rounder, his upside as a hitter and the possibility that he could catch could land him in the second half of the round. Teams such as the Blue Jays (No. 17) and Twins (Nos. 14 and 27) have been linked to him.

Lawrie's MiLB Draft Report

Outshined_One · May 21, 2008

For those of you interested in Collier...

MiLB Draft Report

Sickels' Take

7) Zach Collier, OF, California HS: Another tools outfielder, excellent tools but has less experience than Hicks or Galloway and less polish. Stock has been rising as scouts want to see a guy who was not well-known before the last few months. 6-2, 185, hits left.

May 22, 2008

Q: Arthur from New Orleans asks:
Who do you think the Cubs might pick with their 1st and sandwick picks ?

A: Matt Blood: It's no secret that the Cubs' scouting director Tim Wilken prefers athetlic everday position players. However, that doesn't mean the Cubs won't consider a pitcher. I'll throw out three names that could fit with their first pick—all of which are high schoolers. It's not probable Aaron Hicks will be available, but if he is, expect the Cubs to take him. Casey Kelly and Tim Melville are two other names to keep in mind with Kelly having a slight edge due to his ability to pitch and play in the field. With their sandwhich pick, look for guys like high ceiling outfielder Destin Hood or even high school lefty Robbie Ross.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2008/266135.html

I'd love to see Hosmer fall to 19.

Outshined_One · May 22, 2008

For those of you interested...

Destin Hood

MiLB Draft Report

Prospects with the pure athletic ability of Hood will always attract interest. Hood has the potential to do it all, particularly hit with power and run. A shortstop in high school, he'll undoubtedly move to the outfield as a pro. He has some feel for the game, but overall is more projection right now. The big question is whether the team that drafts him will be able to sign him away from being a two-sport star at the University of Alabama.

From later in Blood's chat:

Q: Jean-Paul from Springfield asks:
Is there a chance that Hood's athleticism could get him into the first round, and which teams are most interested in him?
A:

Matt Blood: There is a very mixed bag on Destin Hood. He has what some scouts have told me as Lastings Milledge bat speed with pure athleticism. However, translating those into production has not been easy for Hood. There is a chance he goes in the first round, but only if the right team likes him that is picking between 25-30. Expect him to fall in the supplemental to 3rd round.

Tim Melville...

Brewerfan

Melville is the type of pitcher that makes his craft look so incredibly easy, and also makes hit hard to believe that he is a high school senior. His success is predicated off of his fastball, not only how hard he throws it, but how well he spots it. That pitch sits in the low-90s and has touched the 95-96 range on occasion. He has a very good curveball that is a swing and miss pitch when he is ahead of the count, and he also throws a solid changeup to keep hitters off balance. He throws all three pitches for strikes, and commands the strike zone extremely well. With a tall and athletic body, he also stars on the field as a hitter, and profiles in a similar fashion to the Brewers Yovani Gallardo for his combination of stuff, polish and athleticism, and would a better fit in the National League where his bat would surprise some people. He has committed to play for North Carolina, and as tough as it is to pry UNC recruits away from school, he should be drafted high enough where that doesn’t even become an issue.

Sickels

1) Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Opinion of him dipped a tad after an erratic start but he's been better lately and still rates as the best overall high school arm available according to virtually all sources. Big guy at 6-5, 200. Works in the low 90s and projects more velocity as he refines his mechanics. Shows a fine knuckle-curve, at times, but it needs more consistency. It would not surprise me to see Martin pass him on draft day.

MiLB Draft Report

One of the top high school arms in the Draft class, Melville has a big projectable frame which has plenty of room for growth. Already possessing above-average arm strength, he could add even more velocity in the future. He shows glimpses of a good knuckle-curve, but will have to find more consistency with it. Same goes for his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch. He draws some comparisons to Yankee Phil Hughes when he was in high school and should find himself gone in the first round just as Hughes did.

Robbie Ross

MiLB Draft Report

Ross is a very intriguing high school lefty who is considered to be one of the better prep southpaws in the Draft class. With a fastball that's plus at times, the possibility of two decent secondary offerings, good command and outstanding competitiveness, he's the type of pitcher who always gets more out of his stuff than others might. He may not have a ton of projection, but he's already pretty good.

dlocks · May 24, 2008

Hey all,

I was at the TCU game last friday and in the 8th inning a young man named Andrew Cashner came into the game. This kid has some unbelieveable stuff! His fastball hit 97 on 3 straight pitches, he has a smooth delievery and showed the ability to throw a slurve type pitch as an out pitch that looked un-hittable! I was doing research and noticed the cubs drafted him last year in the 29th round, but he obviously didnt sign. Cashner looks to be avaiable in almost all the mock drafts I have seen at 19. He would be a great pick imo, but I know the cubs dont have a great history of drafting college closers. With guys like papelbon doing wonders in the bigs I see nothing but upside for Cashner, and he could be ready in no more than 2 years with his great mechanics.

Outshined_One · May 24, 2008

Hey all,

I was at the TCU game last friday and in the 8th inning a young man named Andrew Cashner came into the game. This kid has some unbelieveable stuff! His fastball hit 97 on 3 straight pitches, he has a smooth delievery and showed the ability to throw a slurve type pitch as an out pitch that looked un-hittable! I was doing research and noticed the cubs drafted him last year in the 29th round, but he obviously didnt sign. Cashner looks to be avaiable in almost all the mock drafts I have seen at 19. He would be a great pick imo, but I know the cubs dont have a great history of drafting college closers. With guys like papelbon doing wonders in the bigs I see nothing but upside for Cashner, and he could be ready in no more than 2 years with his great mechanics.

Cashner is probably going to be the second college closer taken after Joshua Fields. He's good enough that he could be a September callup.

For those of you interested or bored, Witchita State/Missouri State is on Comcast right now. WSU 3B/OF Conor Gillaspie is a player of note and could be a possibility for the Cubs with their sandwich pick.

In watching this game, I see why scouts are torn on Gillaspie sticking at 3B. He has a very good arm and soft hands, but man, his instincts are crap. One game does not make a player, but it looks like he needs a good amount of coaching and reps out there.

However, Gillaspie's bat is very good. He chokes up slightly and has an exaggerated crouch in his batting stance. Quick trigger, good pitch recognition. He just hit a no-doubter home run, to boot. The guy also has some nice speed on the basepaths. He's definitely the athletic type that fits the Wilken mold, imo.

May 25, 2008

Interesting reading from Goldstein: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7570

May 27, 2008

Jim Callis talks about who might fall due to signability:

Ask BA[/url]"]The two biggest wild cards are a pair of Boras Corporation advisees—big shock there—first baseman Eric Hosmer (American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.) and righthander Gerrit Cole (Orange, Calif., Lutheran HS).

No. 7 on our Top 200 Draft Prospects list, Hosmer is the most dangerous high school bat in this draft, and he also has enough athleticism and arm strength to try the outfield. It's believed that Hosmer may seek to match the record for a guaranteed contract for a prepster ($7 million by Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello), and that would scare a lot of clubs off. I don't believe Hosmer will get that much, but I do think some team will go well over MLB's slot recommendations to land Hosmer's bat.

No. 17 on the Top 200, Cole has thrown in the mid-90s all spring and also has shown a hard curveball, but there are a number of clubs who worry about his delivery, his command and his immaturity. There will be teams interested in his electric arm, but if he seeks a bonus well above slot, he could wind up at UCLA.

Beyond Hosmer and Cole, there are several high schoolers on the first half of the Top 200 who will be difficult to sign. They include:

Two-sport stars Casey Kelly (Sarasota, Fla., HS) and Xavier Avery (Cedar Grove HS, Ellenwood, Ga.). Kelly (No. 19) has first-round talent as both a righthander and a shortstop, and he'll also command a premium bonus because he has signed to play quarterback at Tennessee. Avery (No. 59) is an outstanding athlete with a raw bat, and he has a scholarship to play running back at Georgia.

Boras Corporation advisees Alex Meyer (Greenburg, Ind., HS), Nick Maronde (Lexington, Ky., Catholic HS) and Brett Mooneyham (Buhach Colony HS, Atwater, Calif.). Meyer (No. 25) is a righthander with late first-round ability but teams don't think he'll sign in that area. Maronde (No. 70) and Mooneyham (No. 78) are lefthanders who would draw interest if they'd take second- or third-round money, but clubs are skeptical that they would. Meyer has committed to Kentucky, Maronde to Florida and Mooneyham to Stanford.

Righthander Sonny Gray (Smyrna, Tenn., HS) and lefthander Dan Hultzen (St. Albans HS, Washington D.C.). They're considered as unsignable as the just-mentioned Boras Corporation trio. A fractured ankle, his size (6 feet, 185 pounds) and his Vanderbilt commitment have combined to kill Gray's (No. 52) chances of going in the late first round. Hultzen (No. 79) seems to have his heart set on attending Virginia.

Lefthanders Kyle Lobstein (Coconino HS, Flagstaff, Ariz.) and T.J. House (Picayune, Miss., Memorial HS) and righthanders Brett Marshall (Sterling HS, Houston) and Austin Dicharry (Klein Collins HS, Spring, Texas). Lobstein (No. 45, committed to Arizona) and House (No. 100, Tulane) may not sign for less than a seven-figure bonus, while Marshall (No. 87, on the verge of committing to Rice) and Dicharry (No. 95, Texas) aren't going to take less than second-round money. Lobstein has the best bet of having a club meet his asking price.

Outshined_One · May 27, 2008

I stumbled across this free article on Baseball Prospectus that provides a wonderful insight into the MLB draft process. It's from Rany Jazayerli's series of articles. It's about two years old, but it still holds a lot of water.

Link

Draft Rule #2: College players are roughly 50% more likely to reach the major leagues than high-school players of equal draft caliber. This advantage has not changed over time.

Among players taken in the first 100 picks between 1984 and 1991 60% of college players drafted reached the majors, compared to 41% of high school players. Between 1992 and 1999, college players had a roughly equal edge, 57% to 39%.

Draft Rule #7: College hitters enjoy a sizeable advantage over every other class of draft pick, in both eras, and in every round.

Even from 1992 to 1999, collegiate hitters were anywhere from 51% to 62% more valuable than any other draft group. The gap was at least 32% in each of the first three rounds.

Draft Rule #8: There is virtually no difference whatsoever in the value of the other three groups of draft picks. In particular, it is no longer apparent that high school pitchers, even in the first round, are significantly riskier than either high school hitters or college pitchers.

From 1992 to 1999, pitchers out of college returned 14.6% less value than expected. Pitchers drafted out of high school were at -14.9%. High school hitters checked in at -20.9%.

Draft Rule #12: College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

Over the course of the entire draft study, college first basemen have returned a ridiculous +144% in draft value. Thirteen first basemen were selected in the first 30 picks between 1984 and 1999, including Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Will Clark, Todd Helton, and Lance Berkman. John Olerud was a first-round talent who slipped to the third round because he was considered a tough sign.

There's a lot more in there. I recommend perusing it so that you all can more effectively criticize the Cubs' selections come draft day. :D

May 28, 2008

http://www.saberscouting.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/top-25-list.jpg

- SaberScouting.com

CuseCubFan69 · May 28, 2008

Why are the Canadians forced to be in the MLB draft?

TruffleShuffle · May 28, 2008

"barry zito, oakland version"

lol

jersey cubs fan · May 28, 2008

Why are the Canadians forced to be in the MLB draft?

To prevent more Americans from heading north to avoid the draft?

jersey cubs fan · May 28, 2008

"barry zito, oakland version"

lol

I love that the SS is compared to Edgar Renteria but with more power, then it says his biggest con is a lack of power.

dlocks · May 28, 2008

what are the odds hosmer slips to us?

Outshined_One · May 28, 2008

what are the odds hosmer slips to us?

So-so. He's good enough to be picked in the Top 10, but his contract demands are supposed to be enormously steep.

Outshined_One · May 28, 2008

Mayo has a new mock up.

19. Chicago Cubs: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.
It's looking likely that the Cubs will go with a high school bat if the right one is there. That could be Collier, or it could be Sarasota High shortstop Casey Kelly. But if Lawrie and his bat (and athletcism) are still around, that seems like the best bet. His recent performance in the Dominican Republic with Team Canada, however, might price him out of this spot when all is said and done.
Last week's projection: Lawrie

It doesn't look like much has changed since his last go-round for the Cubs.

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