2008 Draft Discussion Thread

[Ryno12]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

[UK1679666180]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

 

 

From Jim Callis at BA:

 

 

Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they'll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they'll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors.

[NCCubFan]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

Luis Montanez says hi. :lol:

[RammyFanny]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

Crawford will be interesting as well and has a decent shot of being at our pick unless he has a crazy good year.

 

On a side note, i'm really thinking a decent player should be there for us, even if nobody falls due to demands. I know it's still early, but there just seems to be alot of 1st round talent. A guy like Hicks/Galloway/Crawford/Gray/Fredriech/Hunter all seem like they should go in the neighborhood of our pick (meaning 1 or 2 should be available).

[Guest]

Crawford had a bad Cape and has some contact issues (d'oh!). Would love to see him rebound during his jr year, UCLA will need him to hit well.

[Mephistopheles]

So this year is the year of Robert Stock though

[UK1679666180]

http://pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/numplayers_drafted_bystate.aspx

 

Interesting look to see which kids get drafted from which state, nothing too shocking, I'm glad Illinois is in the top 10.

[Hosak8]

Per Jim Callis, as of Jan 8th:

 

Supplemental First-Round Picks

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Franciso Cordero, A, to Cin)

33. Mets (Glavine)

34. Phillies (Aaron Rowand, A to SF)

35. Brewers (Scott Linebrink, A, to CWS)

36. Royals (David Riske, B, to KC)

37. Cardinals (Troy Percival, B, to TB)

38. Braves (Ron Mahay, B, to KC)

39. Cubs (Jason Kendall, B, to Mil)

40. Padres (Doug Brocail, B, to Hou)

41. Yankees (Luis Vizcaino, B, to Col)

42. Red Sox (Eric Gagne, B, to Mil)

Not bad at all!

 

Now down to 40 with the Feliz signing.

[Guest]

BA's updated top 100 HS prospects: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=highschool&year=2008

BA's updated top 100 college prospects: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=college&year=2008

 

Jim Callis' combined top 30 based solely on talent: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2008/265583.html

 

I can't be the only one thinking Buster Posey is ranked too high...

 

Callis also surmised that slotting will crumble this year since many teams who adhered to it were promised other teams wouldn't, and of course, the Tigers, Red Sox, Nationals and Yankees went over slot for multiple draftees (and of course there's nothing MLB can do to those teams):

 

BA[/url]"]The Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers and Yankees aggressively went over slot, either for singular talents (such as the Orioles giving Matt Wieters a $6 million bonus that is the largest up-front payment in draft history) or for multiple players.

 

That didn't sit well with the clubs that adhered to slotting, especially after they received assurances from MLB throughout the summer that no teams were going to ignore the guidelines. A month later, Frank Coonelly, whose job as MLB's senior vice president of labor relations included being the watchdog for draft bonuses, took over as Pirates president and announced his team would go over slot as needed.

 

Clubs also have noticed that the Red Sox and Yankees have used their deep pockets to build two of the game's deepest farm systems. With dissatisfaction growing, several scouting directors predict the slotting recommendation system will fall apart this year.

 

"You look at some of these teams toeing the line, like the Pirates and the Astros, and their general managers and scouting directors are getting fired," another AL club official said. "Frank Coonelly comes into Pittsburgh and says he's going to take the best available player. More and more organizations are going to break from the pack and call their bluff."

[Guest]

And Trever Miller drops the Cubs down to #41. The worst they can do is pick #42:

 

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Franciso Cordero, A, to Cin)

33. Mets (Glavine)

34. Phillies (Aaron Rowand, A to SF)

35. Brewers (Scott Linebrink, A, to CWS)

36. Royals (David Riske, B, to KC)

37. Giants (Pedro Feliz, B, to Phi)

38. Astros (Trever Miller, B, to TB)

xx. Athletics (if Mike Piazza or Shannon Stewart sign elsewhere)

39. Cardinals (Troy Percival, B, to TB)

40. Braves (Ron Mahay, B, to KC)

41. Cubs (Jason Kendall, B, to Mil)

42. Padres (Mike Cameron, B, to Mil)

xx.Diamondbacks (if Livan Hernandez signs elsewhere)

43. Yankees (Luis Vizcaino, B, to Col)

44. Red Sox (Eric Gagne, B, to Mil)

xx. Athletics (if both Piazza and Stewart sign elsewhere)

45. Padres (Doug Brocail, B, to Hou)

[TruffleShuffle]

hell if we got a pick in the 42nd round for jason kendall, that'd still be generous

[RammyFanny]

Here was the top 30 thing:

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Vanderbilt

Could make Vandy the first school to produce consecutive No. 1 overall picks, following David Price.

 

2. Brian Matusz, lhp, San Diego

Potential for three plus pitches makes big lefty the top pitching prospect in the draft.

 

3. Aaron Crow, rhp, Missouri

Consistently showed well above-average fastball, plus slider last summer in the Cape Cod League.

 

4. Tim Beckham, ss, Griffin (Ga.) HS

Most polished athlete in draft has more five-tool potential than any of the college prospects.

 

5. Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina

He's a switch-hitting slugger from Stratford High (Goose Creek, S.C.)—just like last year's No. 5 pick, Matt Wieters.

 

6. Tim Melville, rhp, Holt HS, Wentzville, Mo.

Classic high school pitching prospect with plus fastball, solid secondary pitches, clean mechanics.

 

7. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Miami

Advanced hitter who displays refined approach, produces for both average and power.

 

8. Eric Hosmer, 1b, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

He's the high school version of Alonso and the loft in his swing gives him more power potential.

 

9. Christian Friedrich, lhp, Eastern Kentucky

Fastball jumped from low 80s to low 90s as a freshman, and his curveball is the best in the college ranks.

 

10. Brett Hunter, rhp, Pepperdine

Led Team USA with 0.66 ERA last summer, then hit 100 mph in fall practice.

 

11. Gerrit Cole, rhp, Lutheran HS, Orange, Calif.

"He may show the best fastball this spring, college or high school," says one front-office executive.

 

12. Kyle Skipworth, c, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.

Four-tool catcher is an accomplished defender with a promising bat.

 

13. Aaron Hicks, of/rhp, Wilson HS, Long Beach

Owns a plus fastball and curveball, but he may have more value as a speedy center fielder.

 

14. Harold Martinez, 3b, Braddock HS, Miami

Currently a shortstop, he has Gold Glove potential as a third baseman and can do everything but run.

 

15. Buster Posey, c, Florida State

Made a smooth transition from shortstop to catcher as a sophomore, makes consistent contact as a hitter.

 

16. Ryan Perry, rhp, Arizona

Put two mediocre seasons behind him by blowing away Cape hitters with 94-98 mph heat.

 

17. Shooter Hunt, rhp, Tulane

Can move up this list if he learns to trust his plus fastball-slider combo and throw more strikes.

 

18. Jacob Thompson, rhp, Virginia

Has very good command of solid stuff, similar to 2007 Athletics first-rounder Justin Simmons.

 

19. Dennis Raben, of, Miami

His big-time power makes him stand out easily among lackluster college outfield crop.

 

20. Alex Meyer, rhp, Greensburg (Ind.) HS

Already touches 96 mph and has a lot of projection remaining in his 6-foot-7, 200-pound frame.

 

21. Luke Burnett, rhp, Louisiana Tech

Topped out at 98 mph as part of a dominant Cape pitching staff that included Crow, Friedrich and Hunt.

 

22. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Fresno State

After he sat out last summer, scouts are anxious to see if his power fastball-slider combo is for real.

 

23. Cody Satterwhite, rhp, Mississippi

Hitters don't like to dig in against Satterwhite, who can reach the upper 90s from a deceptive delivery.

 

24. Gordon Beckham, ss, Georgia

Unrelated to Tim, he has solid all-around tools and led the Cape with nine homers last summer.

 

25. Jemile Weeks, 2b, Miami

Rickie's little brother is the best college athlete, a speedster with leadoff skills and quality defense.

 

26. Sonny Gray, rhp, Smyrna (Tenn.) HS

Stands just 6 feet tall but his power curve is the best among prepsters, and his fastball reaches 93 mph.

 

27. Kyle Lobstein, lhp, Coconino HS, Flagstaff, Ariz.

Three-pitch lefthander shows advanced feel and command, projects to add velo to high-80s fastball.

 

28. Brandon Crawford, ss, UCLA

Shows across-the-board tools but scouts want to see him make more consistent contact.

 

29. Isaac Galloway, of, Los Osos HS, Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.

Impressive specimen stands out with arm and speed, though he's still raw at the plate.

 

30. Brett DeVall, lhp, Niceville (Fla.) HS

Has the best fastball among prep lefties, and his slider and command are promising as well.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2008/265583.html

 

And a great chat:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2008/265591.html

[Guest]

From said chat...

 

Q: david from maryland asks:

who are the scott boras client for the 2008 mlb draft besides eric hosmer?

 

A: Jim Callis: It's still early, and not everyone is locked up. Confirmed Boras advisees include Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, Florida HS 1B Eric Hosmer (the best bat in the HS class), California RHP Gerrit Cole and Georgia RHP Joshua Fields.

 

Yay Gerrit. You know you want to pitch in Westwood for the next 3 years (or slip to the Cubs at 19)!!

[badnews]

Aren't the Cubs going to get the same sabre-rattling treatment from Selig they got last year? It wouldn't surprise me to see them cheap out, relatively speaking.

 

28. Brandon Crawford, ss, UCLA

Shows across-the-board tools but scouts want to see him make more consistent contact.

 

Sounds scary...

[CuseCubFan69]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

 

 

From Jim Callis at BA:

 

 

Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they'll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they'll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors.

 

Do you think that Beckham will stick at SS? This logic that Callis is using would work if Beckham could stay at SS but don't a lot of guys like that get moved anyways? So, if he does get moved, will he still be a better player than Alvarez?

[Ryno12]

My ultimate hope is that Tim Beckham will carry heavy signing demands, thus dropping to the 19th pick, where he is selected by the Cubs. It would be nice to have a bonified SS prospect in the system for the first time since Dunston.

 

 

From Jim Callis at BA:

 

 

Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they'll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they'll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors.

 

Do you think that Beckham will stick at SS? This logic that Callis is using would work if Beckham could stay at SS but don't a lot of guys like that get moved anyways? So, if he does get moved, will he still be a better player than Alvarez?

 

Everything I've read so far seems to assume Beckham will stick at SS. He's been compared to Justin Upton with better hands defensively at the same age. I don't think his bat is as highly regarded at Upton's, but his arm strength and range appear to be comparable. Whether he will be a better player than Alvarez is a completely different question. I think Ping is much more qualified to answer that question.

[Hosak8]

I'm not subscribing to BA just to find the answer to this, but where does Casey Kelly rank among high schoolers?

[Guest]

I'm not subscribing to BA just to find the answer to this, but where does Casey Kelly rank among high schoolers?

 

17.

[Hosak8]

I'm not subscribing to BA just to find the answer to this, but where does Casey Kelly rank among high schoolers?

 

17.

 

Thanks, CR. Not that I expect him to ever take a snap in Knoxville, but it would be nice to know that we didn't just throw away a football scholarship on the kid. I hope to see him playing for the Diamond Vols next season (because I cannot imagine that he'll ever see the field in football.)

[UK1679666180]

He's interesting b/c he is so gifted athletically, loves playing FB, and his dad has been involved in baseball all his life as a player then scout.

 

http://www.govolsxtra.com/news/2008/jan/27/head/

[TruffleShuffle]

He's interesting b/c he is so gifted athletically, loves playing FB, and his dad has been involved in baseball all his life as a player then scout.

 

http://www.govolsxtra.com/news/2008/jan/27/head/

 

when i saw the last name, i thought "whose son could he be? not pat kelly. pat kelly can't be old enough to have a son who's a senior in high school."

 

i'm getting old :x

[Guest]

BA had a top 50 list for all four college classes (premium content): http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/season-preview/2008/265644.html

 

Freshmen (2010):

 

1. Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina

2. Kyle Blair, rhp, San Diego

3. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee

4. Gary Brown, of/2b, Cal State Fullerton

5. Victor Sanchez, 3b, San Diego - yes, the Cubs 2007 25th rounder

6. Barrett Loux, rhp, Texas A&M

7. Nick Tepesch, rhp, Missouri

8. Kevin Patterson, 1b/of, Auburn

9. Greg Peavey, rhp, Oregon State

10. Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami

 

Sophomores (2009):

 

1. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri

2. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina

3. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State

4. Gavin Brooks, lhp, UCLA

5. Grant Green, ss, Southern California

6. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt

7. Dustin Ackley, 1b/of, North Carolina

8. Robert Stock, c/rhp, Southern California

9. *Mark Sobolewski, 3b, Miami

10. Jared Mitchell, of, Clemson

[RammyFanny]

BA with the nice top high school guys at each position piece with a mini scouting report on each.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/high-school/season-preview/2008/265670.html

 

 

C-Skipworth

1B-Hosmer

2B-Dykstra

SS-Beckham

3B- Martinez

OF-Grossman

OF-Avery

OF-Galloway

UTIL- Hicks

 

LHP: Lobstein

RHP: Cole

LHP: Ross

RHP: Melville

RHP: Gray

 

Scouting reports are vague... only 3 sentences or so, but if anyone wants any tell me which ones.

Edited February 28, 2008 by RammyFanny

[Guest]

It'd be swell if Lenny Dykstra's boy makes it to Westwood, I'm not even going to bother getting my hopes up with Gerrit Cole.

[Guest]

I'm guessing Pedro Alvarez is going to fall (especially since Boras is his advisor):

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=348

 

That said, scouts contacted this week regarding Alvarez’s injury report that it’s a hamate injury, which makes the situation worse. Hamate injuries frequently require recovery times longer than six week, perhaps eight weeks, perhaps more. Of great importance is the fact that most players who have hamate problems have subsequent range-of-motion issues and lose some of their power in the short term.

 

So, it’s likely that teams considering drafting Alvarez will not be seeing him at his best as a hitter this year. That complicates the evaluation of a player of his stature, represented by Boras, sure to be asking for either a major league contract in the eight-figure range, such as the one Mark Teixeira got in 2001, or at least in the neighborhood of the $6 million straight bonus another Boras client, Matt Wieters, got in 2007.

 

Teixeira is the last top college prospect whose situation parallels that of Alvarez, actually. In his 2001 season, Teixeira had a small fracture in his right ankle that kept him out until May. That injury didn’t hurt his draft stock necessarily–he still went fifth overall to the Rangers–but he didn’t get a chance to help his stock, either, by improving his defense at third base. In the meantime, Mark Prior had a season for the ages and passed Teixeira to become the top college draft prospect in the country. He went second overall and signed a contract with a larger guaranteed value.