Murton getting benched again for lesser player

[CoolHandLuke]

You can't be serious. I mean, really, are you? I'm glad you used such an extreme example, too, because it illustrates the point incredibly well and I don't have to take the blame for it (since the Floyd/Murton situation isn't nearly as clear, although I'm in agreement with those who say Murton should get the majority of PA's).

 

The best decision isn't the one that turns out better in hindsight. It's the one that is made based upon the most amount of good information possible. Whether it works out is irrelevant. Let's say ARod is this "SS stud in a slump" that you refer to. It would never, and I mean NEVER, be a good decision to start Neifi over him (at least, if you're only taking into account potential performance and not fatigue or injury). I don't care if ARod is 0 for his last 25. We have thousands of plate appearances to tell us that ARod is an elite hitter. We also have thousands of PA's to tell us that Neifi is one of the worst hitters in MLB history. I don't care what either has done for the past few games. Even if Neifi goes 3 for 4 in this hypothetical game while ARod would've gone 0 for 4 in that game, it still wouldn't have been the right decision. It would've just been a bad decision that luckily worked out well.

 

Do you play poker? If you had pocket 4's and you know an all in player before you has pocket aces, would you call hoping to hit a set because you've had a good run with pocket 4's the last few times you got them? (Or, to make the situation more analogous, would you trade your pocket aces for pocket 4s because you've hit a few sets recently with pocket 4's but have had your aces cracked the last couple times?)

 

Hell no. You fold (or, for the other scenario, you sure as hell don't trade). You even fold pocket kings there. And if you call with either hand and get lucky and crack the other guy's aces, it still was a terribly bad play and the wrong decision.

 

Sorry about the poker analogy, but I just felt like it worked pretty well here. There's, admittedly, a difference in that there's a human element in baseball, and it might help 'stud SS in slump' out, mentally, to sit out a day if he's had a bad run. That's a far cry from "sit him because he's cold and player 'y' is hot," though, and it's more of a long term type of decision to give him a day off here or there to clear his head than a short term one. If I'm in a one game playoff, and ARod is 2 for his last 15 and Neifi is 9 for his last 18, I'm starting ARod 100 times out of 100.

 

Ok, done rambling.

 

Beautiful post.

[RegulusBlue]

I'm only really upset that we're putting more than two second basemen on the field whenever Theriot is in the OF. Floyd is doing better right now, and his career suggests that he is the better player, so no problems there.

 

Theriot finishing games is garbage though.

[papabear58]

I'm only really upset that we're putting more than two second basemen on the field whenever Theriot is in the OF. Floyd is doing better right now, and his career suggests that he is the better player, so no problems there.

 

Theriot finishing games is garbage though.

 

And what makes you think that this will continue? What if Piniella is getting him some AB's to build confidence and get him to see pitches and things in a real game so that as he comes in as a pinch hitter, or as he plays second base when Derosa plays third, he's is comfortable and ready. It's only six games and it's only happended twice I think, maybe three times.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has Murton cured cancer yet? Or is he waiting to do that during the All-Star break?

 

This is crazy....

 

He [Murton] should be getting the majority of the starts.

 

He is.

 

I don't understand why some people are so up in arms over this situation. It's hardly a straight platoon. Murton has gotten four of the six starts so far in left field, and the Cubs have only faced a lefty in one of those games.

 

This wasn't the point I was making. I'm talking more theoretically and comparing Murton and Floyd on a more macro level. Hence this...

 

"Now, this isn't necessarily a criticism of what's happened to this point, because it has only been SIX GAMES"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was Floyd not significantly injured last season? It's pretty dubious to rate Floyd vs. Murton based on last year's numbers.

 

So far Floyd has outproduced Murton. The numbers don't lie (not to mention the naked eye for anyone that's watched the games). Murton has sucked so far. Absolutely sucked. Will that continue throughout the season? Nope. But playing Floyd over Murton has helped us win games so far. You're arguing long term and I'm arguing short term.

 

Have you seen Murton lately? Crap. Until he gets it figured out, Floyd's the man.

 

Sample size, shmample size. We're talking short term. Sample size is irrelevant. Geebus, Neifi was good at times. Are you suggesting we should have played some SS stud in a slump b/c his overall numbers warranted the start?

 

This is baseball. Everyone slumps. A smart manager can take advantage of the depth on his roster. Otherwise he'd be playing his starters every day no matter what b/c their career numbers suggested it.

 

Floyd has had injury troubles in the past and is getting older, you can't assume those things are behind him.

 

As for the rest of it, I really don't know what else to say except to repeat myself. Sample size does matter. Drawing conclusions of these sorts after 6 games is laughably terrible. Playing the hot hand is NOT predictive, and therefore not likely to get any better production than a structured distribution of playing time. It's short sighted and ineffective.

 

 

A smart manager can take advantage of the depth on his roster. Otherwise he'd be playing his starters every day no matter what b/c their career numbers suggested it.

 

This is the point. The starters should play most every day. A manager can use the info available to him to make smart decisions on when to sprinkle in the bench players, but the starter plays the vast majority of the time and doesn't have his playing time jeopardized by a couple 0 for 4's.

[Unrequited]

You can't be serious. I mean, really, are you? I'm glad you used such an extreme example, too, because it illustrates the point incredibly well and I don't have to take the blame for it (since the Floyd/Murton situation isn't nearly as clear, although I'm in agreement with those who say Murton should get the majority of PA's).

 

The best decision isn't the one that turns out better in hindsight. It's the one that is made based upon the most amount of good information possible. Whether it works out is irrelevant. Let's say ARod is this "SS stud in a slump" that you refer to. It would never, and I mean NEVER, be a good decision to start Neifi over him (at least, if you're only taking into account potential performance and not fatigue or injury). I don't care if ARod is 0 for his last 25. We have thousands of plate appearances to tell us that ARod is an elite hitter. We also have thousands of PA's to tell us that Neifi is one of the worst hitters in MLB history. I don't care what either has done for the past few games. Even if Neifi goes 3 for 4 in this hypothetical game while ARod would've gone 0 for 4 in that game, it still wouldn't have been the right decision. It would've just been a bad decision that luckily worked out well.

 

Do you play poker? If you had pocket 4's and you know an all in player before you has pocket aces, would you call hoping to hit a set because you've had a good run with pocket 4's the last few times you got them? (Or, to make the situation more analogous, would you trade your pocket aces for pocket 4s because you've hit a few sets recently with pocket 4's but have had your aces cracked the last couple times?)

 

Hell no. You fold (or, for the other scenario, you sure as hell don't trade). You even fold pocket kings there. And if you call with either hand and get lucky and crack the other guy's aces, it still was a terribly bad play and the wrong decision.

 

Sorry about the poker analogy, but I just felt like it worked pretty well here. There's, admittedly, a difference in that there's a human element in baseball, and it might help 'stud SS in slump' out, mentally, to sit out a day if he's had a bad run. That's a far cry from "sit him because he's cold and player 'y' is hot," though, and it's more of a long term type of decision to give him a day off here or there to clear his head than a short term one. If I'm in a one game playoff, and ARod is 2 for his last 15 and Neifi is 9 for his last 18, I'm starting ARod 100 times out of 100.

 

Ok, done rambling.

 

Haha I knew you were a poker player even before you got to the poker part... Results oriented thinking is a problem for just about everybody...

[CubColtPacer]

He [Murton] should be getting the majority of the starts.

 

He is.

 

I don't understand why some people are so up in arms over this situation. It's hardly a straight platoon. Murton has gotten four of the six starts so far in left field, and the Cubs have only faced a lefty in one of those games.

 

How many times has he been yanked for Theriot as a "defensive replacement" in about the 7th inning? Not only should he get the majority of the starts, but he should finish the games. He's not terribly slow and Theriot isn't much better in LF (if at all). It's a move that's been made a few times and, imo, is just wasting our already thin bench.

 

Murton has gotten pulled for Theriot once in his 4 starts. Murton finished 2 games, and the other game (yesterday) he got pulled for Jones as part of a double switch when it was thought that Cotts would have to pitch a couple of innings, and Murton was the guy who batted last.

 

Now Theriot has come in for Floyd both times Floyd has played.

[soapy]

Floyd starting again today.

[Bruno7481]

Floyd starting again today.

 

And he should be based off his numbers versus Williams.

[Tracer Bullet]

Floyd starting again today.

 

And he should be based off his numbers versus Williams.

 

Not if it means JJ bats 2nd. Ugh.

[Mephistopheles]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

[jersey cubs fan]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

[Mephistopheles]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

no, not it's not.

[jersey cubs fan]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

no, not it's not.

 

Okay, we'll just pretend like Floyd isn't a hobbled old man playing on his last legs coming off a terrible season in which he couldn't hold Murton's jock. I like the way you work.

[Soul]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

no, not it's not.

 

Okay, we'll just pretend like Floyd isn't a hobbled old man playing on his last legs coming off a terrible season in which he couldn't hold Murton's jock. I like the way you work.

 

I'd like to think he's got a little left in the tank since he's only a couple years removed from a pretty good year, but yeah Murton should be getting the bulk of the starts and it looks like he's going to.

 

We could do worse than to have Floyd coming off the bench -- just look at what we were trotting out there last year in late-inning situations.

[Mephistopheles]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

no, not it's not.

 

Okay, we'll just pretend like Floyd isn't a hobbled old man playing on his last legs coming off a terrible season in which he couldn't hold Murton's jock. I like the way you work.

you can also pretend that matt murton doesnt have below average power at the position.

[Shavo]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

=D>

[Banedon]

Murton 2006: 455AB's .297 .365 .444 13HR 62RBI

 

Floyd 2006: 332AB's .244 .324 .407 11HR 44RBI

[Soul]

If we want to send Floyd on a rehab vacation by May, then by all means lets give him the bulk of the starts in left.

 

I hope I'm not the only one who has noticed Cliff limping his way back to the dugout after an out on the basepads. Those legs are.......not great.

[Yestheydo]

He [Murton] should be getting the majority of the starts.

 

He is.

 

I don't understand why some people are so up in arms over this situation. It's hardly a straight platoon. Murton has gotten four of the six starts so far in left field, and the Cubs have only faced a lefty in one of those games.

 

How many times has he been yanked for Theriot as a "defensive replacement" in about the 7th inning? Not only should he get the majority of the starts, but he should finish the games. He's not terribly slow and Theriot isn't much better in LF (if at all). It's a move that's been made a few times and, imo, is just wasting our already thin bench.

 

Theriot has just started playing the OF. If they want him to develop into a solid defender there, they have to give him the opportunity. It won't take much for him to be their best defensive outfielder. I think that's the plan.

[98navigator]

I love Murton but the Cubs never promised that Matt was going to play everyday. The same can be said for Jacque Jones. Lou isn't playing favorites, he will play matchups or stick with the hot hand. Theriot will get a lot of time all over the field.

 

Also, it's hard to decry Murton's lack of playing time when you see that he's had more ABs than Floyd. The team has only played in 7 games so it's hard to say how it will play out but, there's no doubt that Floyd has been more productive, in fewer at-bats, even though he hasn't been on base as much as Murton.

 

Ultimately, Murton should see more starts because Floyd doesn't move well and I suspect he isn't 100% healed. However, Matt has to be smart too. He isn't getting on base--swinging at the first pitch in yesterday's game was horrible considering the situation (whereas, Floyd took a walk against a LHP). Overall, Matt hasn't looked very good at all. It's subjective, but Floyd always looks like he's driving the ball (his outs are even line drives). I can't say the same for Matt. I'm for playing the most productive players. I want the team to win-Period. There's nothing wrong with playing the hot hand. I suggest Murton get hot to force the issue...

[ConstableRabbit]

The most frustrating thing is putting theriot in the game in a situation where murton's patience would really help out.

 

Today's game drove me nuts -- he put in theriot, who couldn't even lay down a sac bunt, and then took out derosa, who had been one of our hottest hitters. I like theriot, but I don't think he's a go-to guy off the bench by any means.

[beowulf28]

I'm only really upset that we're putting more than two second basemen on the field whenever Theriot is in the OF. Floyd is doing better right now, and his career suggests that he is the better player, so no problems there.

 

Theriot finishing games is garbage though.

 

Then let him finish at second and move DeRosa to RF, like someone else suggested. Why is Theriot finishing garbage if he's finishing at his regular position?

[papabear58]

cliff floyd is better than matt murton. this isnt a new development

 

It wouldn't have been a new development 3 years ago. But it would be today.

no, not it's not.

 

Okay, we'll just pretend like Floyd isn't a hobbled old man playing on his last legs coming off a terrible season in which he couldn't hold Murton's jock. I like the way you work.

you can also pretend that matt murton doesnt have below average power at the position.

 

Wow that string is un-nerving. I like Matt Murton, and would definatly perfer if he were getting the majority of the starts, but "he couldn't hold Murton's jock."?! Come on and get real. Murton is a great kid and a good talent. I think that in a year or two he could be an All-Star (just person opinion, please no crucifixion), but right now the truth is that Floyd is going to hit just as well, if not better then Murton and is a viable player given days off. I don't like Murton being platooned, but hey, if he's going to be, we could do A LOT WORSE then Cliff Floyd.

[seanimal]

Wow that string is un-nerving. I like Matt Murton, and would definatly perfer if he were getting the majority of the starts, but "he couldn't hold Murton's jock."?! Come on and get real. Murton is a great kid and a good talent. I think that in a year or two he could be an All-Star (just person opinion, please no crucifixion), but right now the truth is that Floyd is going to hit just as well, if not better then Murton and is a viable player given days off. I don't like Murton being platooned, but hey, if he's going to be, we could do A LOT WORSE then Cliff Floyd.

 

COMMON SENSE ALERT!!!

 

Floyd can flat out destroy the ball. But then again, I've got that man-love for Murton that seems to be going around on this board as well. Those two things being said, Murton isn't going to be hurt much with the playing time that Floyd is getting right now. This is a platoon situation, not a Matt Murton owns left field situation. Besides, in time, Murt will have far more AB's than Floyd this year.

[Derwood]

Last I checked, Murton hasn't been benched. Just sayin'.....but by all means, go on with the hyperbolic ranting