Izturis likely to bat 8th; Murton and DeRosa #2 Hitter

[Transmogrified Tiger]

When you have two groundball pitchers (Z and Marquis) on your staff, it sure is. Aramis has mediocre range at best. Izzy makes up for that in a big way. DeRosa has good, but not spectacular range at 2B.

 

Izzy is going to prevent a lot of hits from getting through the infield. That's worth as much as getting the hit yourself as far as I'm concerned.

 

Adam Everett is widely regarded as an amazing defensive SS. He got 688 chances last year in just under 1300 innings, about 4.7 chances per 9 innings. Or in other words, a little more than the number of plate appearances he'll receive. Now, consider that a very substantial number of those defensive chances are plays that anyone who's played high school baseball can and will make(pop-ups, sunday hops, easy force out throws, etc.), never mind a major league caliber defender. The sheer amount of chances that a defender gets to add value aren't near the amount of chances he gets at the plate. And even then, that ignores that defense is a 9 man affair, where you can bobble a ball and still flip to the guy at second for a forceout, or lose a ball in the lights/sun but the center fielder/second baseman comes in and grabs it.

 

Offense has more of an impact than defense.

Edited March 10, 2007 by Transmogrified Tiger

[CubColtPacer]

Well, his best numbers were really in 2005-throw out the numbers he did after he got hurt. I think he'll be somewhere in between 2004 and 2005, but probably closer to 2004 than 2005 (2005 would still have been his career year if hadn't gotten hurt, I don't think he can sustain that level).

His patience has gotten better every year and he's got good coaching that encourages patience-I think his patience will just continue to get better, and his taking pitches in ST would seem to give a slight indicator of that as well.

 

Izturis in the first half of 2005: .275 .322 .338

 

That is not better than his 2004 season.

 

He got hurt at the beginning of June and tried to play through it, which led to one of the most horrific months of all time. Here are his numbers from the first two months combined before the injury:

 

.342/.387/.425

 

That is much better than his 2004 season-I obviously wouldn't expect him to put up those numbers for an entire season, but if he hadn't gotten hurt he probably wouldn't have fallen any lower than .350 or so for the year (and he would have had to fall off a pretty good amount to do that).

[RichHillIsABeast]

Cedeno's problem isn't his offense - that will come. It's his defense. He has all the potential in the world with his range and arm, but the consistency just isn't there.

 

Cedeno has shown fine range. It's the routine plays he's struggled with more than anything, and that too can be rectified with regular playing time. Cedeno has shown more pop in his bat. I can't really define the managing style of Tracy in LA, but we know that Dusty preached aggressiveness, which in my opinion, stunted Cedeno's development at the plate. This may be the case with Izturis as well, but the only year he had more than 40 walks was when he was leading off for the Dodgers in 2004.

 

I agree with you about Cedeno. Dusty/Clines really had him struggling. some of that might have been Ronny's work ethic and some of that might have been the coaching philosophy/coaching work ethic. Cedeno is a much better player than he was last season. I think he'd do well under Lou's staff, which seems to stress repetition and hard work. That's all Ronny needs to become consistent.

 

Looking at Izturis's trends, he's improving fairly steadily in terms of plate discipline.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=656&position=3BSS&page=3&type=full

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=656&position=3BSS&page=5&type=full

[BigbadB]

He got hurt at the beginning of June and tried to play through it, which led to one of the most horrific months of all time. Here are his numbers from the first two months combined before the injury:

 

.342/.387/.425

 

That is much better than his 2004 season-I obviously wouldn't expect him to put up those numbers for an entire season, but if he hadn't gotten hurt he probably wouldn't have fallen any lower than .350 or so for the year (and he would have had to fall off a pretty good amount to do that).

 

I hope you're right. But, I'm not convinced. Small sample sizes don't get me all that giddy. You are right that Izturis went on to have one of the most horrific months of all time. His batting average dropped from .349 to .275. 9 hits in the month of June. 24 straight games without a multi-hit game. Ugh.

[Danny82]

Bruce reported this nugget in his article today.

 

Link,

 

Taking shape: Although shortstop Cesar Izturis singled and walked twice while hitting second Friday, Lou Piniella said Izturis would probably be his No. 8 hitter. Matt Murton and Mark DeRosa could be the No. 2 hitters during the season.

 

:cheers:

 

Another good decision by Lou.

 

i'm suspicious of the reason why they will be sharing, though.

 

murton needs to play everyday, lou! hendry, please, give jones away if you have to.

If Hendry trades Jones and gets little to no value in return, the team is worse, no? Why would you want that? It's about wins and losses, no?

[Rob]

Cedeno's problem isn't his offense - that will come. It's his defense. He has all the potential in the world with his range and arm, but the consistency just isn't there.

 

Cedeno has shown fine range. It's the routine plays he's struggled with more than anything, and that too can be rectified with regular playing time. Cedeno has shown more pop in his bat. I can't really define the managing style of Tracy in LA, but we know that Dusty preached aggressiveness, which in my opinion, stunted Cedeno's development at the plate. This may be the case with Izturis as well, but the only year he had more than 40 walks was when he was leading off for the Dodgers in 2004.

 

I agree with you about Cedeno. Dusty/Clines really had him struggling. some of that might have been Ronny's work ethic and some of that might have been the coaching philosophy/coaching work ethic. Cedeno is a much better player than he was last season. I think he'd do well under Lou's staff, which seems to stress repetition and hard work. That's all Ronny needs to become consistent.

 

Looking at Izturis's trends, he's improving fairly steadily in terms of plate discipline.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=656&position=3BSS&page=3&type=full

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=656&position=3BSS&page=5&type=full

 

That first graph showing BB% looks like the last three years have been a plateau. He may be cutting strikeouts, but that's pretty irrelevant.

[CubColtPacer]

He got hurt at the beginning of June and tried to play through it, which led to one of the most horrific months of all time. Here are his numbers from the first two months combined before the injury:

 

.342/.387/.425

 

That is much better than his 2004 season-I obviously wouldn't expect him to put up those numbers for an entire season, but if he hadn't gotten hurt he probably wouldn't have fallen any lower than .350 or so for the year (and he would have had to fall off a pretty good amount to do that).

 

I hope you're right. But, I'm not convinced. Small sample sizes don't get me all that giddy. You are right that Izturis went on to have one of the most horrific months of all time. His batting average dropped from .349 to .275. 9 hits in the month of June. 24 straight games without a multi-hit game. Ugh.

 

Oh, it's definitely not a sure thing. Even if you are fully convinced that Izturis was developing into a capable ballplayer at the plate (which I think I am at this point) even people like me are scared that he won't be able to hold up health-wise at this point. I don't think it's sure at all at this point-I just also don't think it's nearly a sure thing that he's going to be awful either.

That seems to be the feeling, and I think there is a pretty decent chance that people will be very surprised, and that Izturis's OBP plus his defense will make him not a detriment to the team. If the team wanted to make an upgrade at SS, I won't be upset whatsoever-but I think Izturis's chances of succeeding and putting up between a .330-.350 OBP is much higher than people think. The development in his numbers, both average wise and patience, and the current coaching staff has me thinking it's reasonable to expect that out of him, while at the same time realizing it's a risk.

[YearofDaCubs]

This is excellent news!

[BigbadB]

MLB is swamped with SS's who can't hit, and there really aren't going to be any upgrades available. I'm resigned to the fact that it's Izturis or Cedeno or bust. While I would love to see Theriot win the job, the outlook it not good. But, this team can win with a guy like Izturis hitting 8th.

 

To get someone like A-Rod or Tejada will cost too much in talent, handicapping the team elsewhere.

 

As long as Lou sticks Izturis in the 8th spot everyday, I can live with it. I can also hope Izturis hits better than I think he will. With the power that Soriano provides out of the lead off spot, I think it's important to have a guy hitting 8th that can get on base at a reasonable clip. Imagining Ward or Floyd or Murton hitting in the pitcher's spot late in games, the combination of Izturis finding a way to get on base and the PHer extending the inning for Soriano could give the team a whole new dynamic they haven't seen in awhile.

[cubweiser03]

NL...have fun pitching to Lee and Aramis this year. Bases wont be open this time.

[erik316wttn]

Izturis wouldn't belong in the starting lineup of some of the slow pitch softball teams my town.

[TruffleShuffle]

When you have two groundball pitchers (Z and Marquis) on your staff, it sure is. Aramis has mediocre range at best. Izzy makes up for that in a big way. DeRosa has good, but not spectacular range at 2B.

 

Izzy is going to prevent a lot of hits from getting through the infield. That's worth as much as getting the hit yourself as far as I'm concerned.

 

Adam Everett is widely regarded as an amazing defensive SS. He got 688 chances last year in just under 1300 innings, about 4.7 chances per 9 innings. Or in other words, a little more than the number of plate appearances he'll receive. Now, consider that a very substantial number of those defensive chances are plays that anyone who's played high school baseball can and will make(pop-ups, sunday hops, easy force out throws, etc.), never mind a major league caliber defender. The sheer amount of chances that a defender gets to add value aren't near the amount of chances he gets at the plate. And even then, that ignores that defense is a 9 man affair, where you can bobble a ball and still flip to the guy at second for a forceout, or lose a ball in the lights/sun but the center fielder/second baseman comes in and grabs it.

 

Offense has more of an impact than defense.

 

yeah, but isn't the difference between two lousy hitters (Cedeno and Izturis) only about 1 time on base per week, at best?

[ctcf]

<3 Lou

[frostwyrm]

Besides his obviously poor offense, one reason for sticking Izzy at #8 is that he's going to be hurt a lot. I'd rather see the top spots in the lineup go to good players who won't constantly be on the DL or playing at less than 100%

[Transmogrified Tiger]

When you have two groundball pitchers (Z and Marquis) on your staff, it sure is. Aramis has mediocre range at best. Izzy makes up for that in a big way. DeRosa has good, but not spectacular range at 2B.

 

Izzy is going to prevent a lot of hits from getting through the infield. That's worth as much as getting the hit yourself as far as I'm concerned.

 

Adam Everett is widely regarded as an amazing defensive SS. He got 688 chances last year in just under 1300 innings, about 4.7 chances per 9 innings. Or in other words, a little more than the number of plate appearances he'll receive. Now, consider that a very substantial number of those defensive chances are plays that anyone who's played high school baseball can and will make(pop-ups, sunday hops, easy force out throws, etc.), never mind a major league caliber defender. The sheer amount of chances that a defender gets to add value aren't near the amount of chances he gets at the plate. And even then, that ignores that defense is a 9 man affair, where you can bobble a ball and still flip to the guy at second for a forceout, or lose a ball in the lights/sun but the center fielder/second baseman comes in and grabs it.

 

Offense has more of an impact than defense.

 

yeah, but isn't the difference between two lousy hitters (Cedeno and Izturis) only about 1 time on base per week, at best?

 

I was talking mostly theoretically, in my original post I said it remains to be seen which would be the better option between Izturis and Theriot.

[RichHillIsABeast]

When you have two groundball pitchers (Z and Marquis) on your staff, it sure is. Aramis has mediocre range at best. Izzy makes up for that in a big way. DeRosa has good, but not spectacular range at 2B.

 

Izzy is going to prevent a lot of hits from getting through the infield. That's worth as much as getting the hit yourself as far as I'm concerned.

 

Adam Everett is widely regarded as an amazing defensive SS. He got 688 chances last year in just under 1300 innings, about 4.7 chances per 9 innings. Or in other words, a little more than the number of plate appearances he'll receive. Now, consider that a very substantial number of those defensive chances are plays that anyone who's played high school baseball can and will make(pop-ups, sunday hops, easy force out throws, etc.), never mind a major league caliber defender. The sheer amount of chances that a defender gets to add value aren't near the amount of chances he gets at the plate. And even then, that ignores that defense is a 9 man affair, where you can bobble a ball and still flip to the guy at second for a forceout, or lose a ball in the lights/sun but the center fielder/second baseman comes in and grabs it.

 

Offense has more of an impact than defense.

 

yeah, but isn't the difference between two lousy hitters (Cedeno and Izturis) only about 1 time on base per week, at best?

 

I was talking mostly theoretically, in my original post I said it remains to be seen which would be the better option between Izturis and Theriot.

 

Well the real issue is the relative difference between the defensive abilities of the players in question compared to the relative difference in their offensive abilities.

 

Theriot may/may not be the better offensive player this season. Izturis is by far the superior defensive SS.

 

I'll take Izturis at SS this season, but if Theriot shows solid offensive ability with regular ABs at the ML level, I wouldn't be adverse to playing him everyday at SS. But until then, I'd like to have only one question mark at SS - a question mark at offense and a given at defense, rather than question marks at defense and offense.

[BigSlick]

When you have two groundball pitchers (Z and Marquis) on your staff, it sure is. Aramis has mediocre range at best. Izzy makes up for that in a big way. DeRosa has good, but not spectacular range at 2B.

 

Izzy is going to prevent a lot of hits from getting through the infield. That's worth as much as getting the hit yourself as far as I'm concerned.

 

Adam Everett is widely regarded as an amazing defensive SS. He got 688 chances last year in just under 1300 innings, about 4.7 chances per 9 innings. Or in other words, a little more than the number of plate appearances he'll receive. Now, consider that a very substantial number of those defensive chances are plays that anyone who's played high school baseball can and will make(pop-ups, sunday hops, easy force out throws, etc.), never mind a major league caliber defender. The sheer amount of chances that a defender gets to add value aren't near the amount of chances he gets at the plate. And even then, that ignores that defense is a 9 man affair, where you can bobble a ball and still flip to the guy at second for a forceout, or lose a ball in the lights/sun but the center fielder/second baseman comes in and grabs it.

 

Offense has more of an impact than defense.

 

There is no doubt of that, but defense can still add value. Plenty, actually.

 

The thing is the ceilings we are talking about, and diminishing returns.

 

The worst defender in the league can't really do that much damage. The best defender in the league...doesn't add that much value.

 

Now the worst bat in the league can do plenty of damage, (and we may be talking about Izturis here if he puts up another .225/.275/.300 year)

 

You get an average fielder and compare him with a fantastic fielder, there is improvement there, but it just isn't worth nearly as much as an average hitter compared to a fantastic hitter.

[Amazing_Grace]

This is great news. Dusty would have Izturis penciled in the #2 spot by now despite all logic and reason. Izturis should hit 8th, and possibly 9th on days when Zambrano or Marquis is pitching.

 

I still don't understand why it was necessary to trade Maddux to get Izturis. We could have let Maddux walk or traded him for nothing but public relations reasons (respecting a great player's wishes), and used the extra money we wouldn't be paying Izturis to outbid Boston for Lugo.

[Soul]

If these first couple weeks are any indication, then I'm for Theriot getting the 2B job, DeRosa to the bench. Murton hits 2nd, Izzy 8th. If Theriot struggles DeRosa is always there.

[UK1679666180]

Given the options, I believe Izturis has earned the starting role with his defense and the potential of supplying enough offense to remain a starter. With that said, if he struggles early with the bat, based on his career stats, his leash should be short and I hope that the Cubs would act accordingly.

 

Of course, how 1-7 goes will also dictate how important it is to have a better bat there.

[A New Era]

Izturis wouldn't belong in the starting lineup of some of the slow pitch softball teams my town.

 

You're right. He's a major leaguer. And there's a reason why those men are playing "slow pitch" softball.

[David]

Izturis wouldn't belong in the starting lineup of some of the slow pitch softball teams my town.

 

You're right. He's a crappy baseball player who happens to be in the Major Leagues (much like Neifi Perez, Rey Rnez, and many others before them). And there's a reason why those men are playing "slow pitch" softball.

 

Fixed.

[A New Era]

Izturis wouldn't belong in the starting lineup of some of the slow pitch softball teams my town.

 

You're right. He's a crappy baseball player who happens to be in the Major Leagues (much like Neifi Perez, Rey Rnez, and many others before them). And there's a reason why those men are playing "slow pitch" softball.

 

Fixed.

 

Mods, can we put a stop to this? If I have to stop using these (#@#!) we should have to stop insulting players for the sole purpose of annoying supports of said players. Thank you.

[brinoch]

Sorry mate. People are free to disagree, and discuss/debate their respective points of view. Swearing and "fixing" a post are apples and oranges. While you might find such a fixed post irritating, there's nothing wrong with it -- as there would be for swearing or using clever symbols to replace various letters.

 

If you find such posts irritating, I suggest that you ignore the people who make such posts.

[A New Era]

Sorry mate. People are free to disagree, and discuss/debate their respective points of view. Swearing and "fixing" a post are apples and oranges. While you might find such a fixed post irritating, there's nothing wrong with it -- as there would be for swearing or using clever symbols to replace various letters.

 

If you find such posts irritating, I suggest that you ignore the people who make such posts.

 

I thought "attack the arguement, not the person" also included general attacks to anybody. Including childishly bashing baseball players. But I guess I was wrong. So I'll adjust my response to the "cleaver" tongue in cheek that is so excepted over here.

Edited March 11, 2007 by A New Era