BP predicts the '07 records

[JGalt73]

NL Central

 

Chicago 85-77

Milwaukee 84-78

St.Louis 81-81

Houston 79-83

Pittsburgh 77-85

Cincinatti 71-91

 

Based on their playing time projections and PECOTA:

 

Cubs

Runs Scored/Allowed: 828 / 789

 

Brewers

RS/RA: 781 / 748

 

Cardinals

RS/RA: 730 / 734

 

Astros

RS/RA: 761 / 783

 

Pirates

RS/RA: 751 / 795

 

Reds

RS/RA: 745 / 841

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well, that's some reason for optimism.

 

I'm waiting for the DiamondMind projections which are usually pretty accurate as well.

[KingCubsFan]

It would be nice if our offense turns out to be that good

[JGalt73]

It would be nice if our offense turns out to be that good

 

I must admit I'm confused on the methodology - or there's an error. I can't imagine that the Cubs could be the best run scoring team in the NL - including besting the Mets (predicted 785 RS)?

[JGalt73]

Rest of the NL

 

East

Philadelphia 87-75

New York 85-77

Atlanta 81-81

Florida 79-83

Washington 66-96

 

West

Arizona 88-74

San Diego 86-76

Los Angeles 80-82

Colorado 80-82

San Francisco 78-84

[Mephistopheles]

and this is with no contributions from Prior, I believe.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Look at that RS. 8-)

 

Our RA should be a lot better than that though. IIRC, PECOTA isn't in love with Z or Hill right now.

[KaiserCesar]

It would be nice if our offense turns out to be that good

 

I must admit I'm confused on the methodology - or there's an error. I can't imagine that the Cubs could be the best run scoring team in the NL - including besting the Mets (predicted 785 RS)?

 

I could see it with favorable projections of Murton and the assumption of a smart platoon where Jones doesn't face a lefty. Those two combined make quite the source of production along with Lee, Soriano, Barrett, ARam and Floyd making up the other spots. Sure, the middle infield is weak, but both Derosa and Izturis are capable of putting up servicable numbers.[/i]

[BigbadB]

I'm not impressed with those projections. The Mets will score more runs than any other team, followed by the Phillies, then possibly the Cubs.

 

The Cubs will not give up that many runs. They have the makings of one of the best bullpens in the NL. If they give up that many runs, it's because Prior didn't pitch all year and Marquis was allowed to pitch all year with a 6.00+ ERA.

 

Dodgers 3rd, and behind the Padres? I don't think so. Dodgers rotation is every bit as good as the Padres with a better bullpen and a much better offense.

[Balsa]

I think that's giving the Brewers pitching staff a bit too much credit.

 

But those outcomes seem very reasonable and possible.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm not impressed with those projections. The Mets will score more runs than any other team, followed by the Phillies, then possibly the Cubs.

 

The Cubs will not give up that many runs. They have the makings of one of the best bullpens in the NL. If they give up that many runs, it's because Prior didn't pitch all year and Marquis was allowed to pitch all year with a 6.00+ ERA.

 

Dodgers 3rd, and behind the Padres? I don't think so. Dodgers rotation is every bit as good as the Padres with a better bullpen and a much better offense.

 

definitely disagree about the dodgers.

[UMFan83]

Rest of the NL

 

East

Philadelphia 87-75

New York 85-77

Atlanta 81-81

Florida 79-83

Washington 66-96

 

West

Arizona 88-74

San Diego 86-76

Los Angeles 80-82

Colorado 80-82

San Francisco 78-84

 

Playoff matchups would be:

1. Diamondbacks vs. 3. Cubs

2. Phillies vs. 4 Padres

[TB_11]

5 runs a game would be very nice.

 

The prediction for 789 RA would have to be based of injuries. PECOTA predicts that only Z will be able to give us 200+IP. It predicts Prior at 100, Hill 153, Lilly 166, and Marquis 150. Should our pitching hold up, 85 wins would be a very conservative estimate for a team scoring 828 runs.

[98navigator]

5 runs a game would be very nice.

 

The prediction for 789 RA would have to be based of injuries. PECOTA predicts that only Z will be able to give us 200+IP. It predicts Prior at 100, Hill 153, Lilly 166, and Marquis 150. Should our pitching hold up, 85 wins would be a very conservative estimate for a team scoring 828 runs.

 

I agree

[GhostRunner]

No 90-game winners in the NL this year?

 

IIRC, BP predicted none for last year, either.

[inari]

Any chance we could get a link for this baby?

[Guest]

Man, predictions at this time of yr is are not very useful, So unless someone is nostradamus (and if you are, I really, Re HAHAHA ally, would like the lottery numbers) I don't take predictions seriously. Edited February 25, 2007 by NorthsideAvenger

[sethuel1]

Man, predictions at this time of yr is are very useful, So unless someone is nostradamus (and if you are, I really, Re HAHAHA ally, would like the lottery numbers) I don't take predictions seriously.

 

Agreed. I like to see predictions after the season is over.

[Drew Doughty]

Man, predictions at this time of yr is are very useful, So unless someone is nostradamus (and if you are, I really, Re HAHAHA ally, would like the lottery numbers) I don't take predictions seriously.

 

Agreed. I like to see predictions after the season is over.

 

Those suck to. I predicted the Cubs to win the division in 06 in October.

[Guest]

Man, predictions at this time of yr is are very useful, So unless someone is nostradamus (and if you are, I really, Re HAHAHA ally, would like the lottery numbers) I don't take predictions seriously.

 

Agreed. I like to see predictions after the season is over.

 

Those suck to. I predicted the Cubs to win the division in 06 in October.

 

 

I got you beat, I predicted the Cubs would win the division when the Cubs were up 7-2 in the ninth with one out, 2nd to the last game of the season.

[Ender]

I think that's giving the Brewers pitching staff a bit too much credit.

 

But those outcomes seem very reasonable and possible.

 

Brewers have the potential to have the best starting rotation in the NL so I disagree. I do think they are giving the cardinals a bit too much credit on the pitching side though.

 

I could see the Cubs scoring as much as the Mets if everyone is healthy. Soriano, Lee, ARam match up very well with the Mets 3 best hitters.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think that's giving the Brewers pitching staff a bit too much credit.

 

But those outcomes seem very reasonable and possible.

 

Brewers have the potential to have the best starting rotation in the NL so I disagree. I do think they are giving the cardinals a bit too much credit on the pitching side though.

 

I could see the Cubs scoring as much as the Mets if everyone is healthy. Soriano, Lee, ARam match up very well with the Mets 3 best hitters.

 

Agreed all around. The Brewer rotation could be great(and they were much better last year than I would've guessed). I'm really not a big fan of the Cardinal rotation at all, and think the Cubs could have a pretty dynamite offense if things go well(i.e. performance, managerial decisions).

[abuck1220]

Man, predictions at this time of yr is are not very useful, So unless someone is nostradamus (and if you are, I really, Re HAHAHA ally, would like the lottery numbers) I don't take predictions seriously.

 

wait...so you're saying that predictions are 100% accurate?

[frostwyrm]

Rest of the NL

 

East

Philadelphia 87-75

New York 85-77

Atlanta 81-81

Florida 79-83

Washington 66-96

 

West

Arizona 88-74

San Diego 86-76

Los Angeles 80-82

Colorado 80-82

San Francisco 78-84

 

With their payroll if the Cubs fail to contend in a league this crummy then Hendry should be shot out of a cannon

[otis89]

Rest of the NL

 

East

Philadelphia 87-75

New York 85-77

Atlanta 81-81

Florida 79-83

Washington 66-96

 

West

Arizona 88-74

San Diego 86-76

Los Angeles 80-82

Colorado 80-82

San Francisco 78-84

 

With their payroll if the Cubs fail to contend in a league this crummy then Hendry should be shot out of a cannon

 

Do you honestly believe every single one of those predictions and believe there will not be one single 90-win team in the whole darn league?