Now roster refinement begins: Discussion & speculation

[Ivy Walls]

Now that Z is signed for '07 and they agree in principle to discuss financials for a 5 year extension, let us look at the project roster and its uncertainities and holes that can be addressed through a ST trade.

 

SP: Is okay thanks to FA and AAA/AAAA competition, only uncertainity is Prior's presumed health and future effectiveness, (prediction he wins Comeback Player of the Year), Miller and Marquis. Strength in numbers here.

 

RP: Again strength in numbers again, uncertainities, Wood and health (no slurve ball, less weight better mechanics, less fatique, monster reliever potential), Dempster's motivation and control.

 

IF: 2B, now almost as annually uncertain as 3B was, DeRosa is the new supplant hopefully for at least 2 years as Patterson is groomed. SS is a big hole, Izturis is nothing more than an overpaid injury prone utility player that is glove oriented. Question could Theriot beat him out by May31st this season and be a kind of Eckstein clone? Wil the Cubs trade?

 

1B/3B: Lee's return of health (again a Comeback Player of the Year candidate) and Ramirez, solid if they don't hurt themselves.

 

OF: As it stands the corner positions are set. Either Murton/Floyd and Jones or Murton & Jones & Floyd will play. The question is whether Soriano must play a corner OF leaving CF open. Jones could open in that spot but that is a ticket for disaster after a few miscue's. Naturally this is a place for a trade. Cubs have Pie in reserve and he could end up playing CF ahead of the timetable.

 

C: Barrett is in his final year as a offensive catcher who should be playing a platoon OF or 3B in the AL as an occassional spot catcher and DH. Boy I bet on of the Detroit, Oakland, Angels, Boston or Minnesota managers would like to have him in a package. Cubs would probably be better off with Blanco and Soto while they groom Fox than Barrett when it is all said and done.

 

What to watch for:

 

Seattle: They have SS surplus, Ichiro who wants FA bad, and need for RP'ing. Cubs could move an adaquate RF'er, experienced RP'ing and prospects like Moore, (to allow them to move Beltre) and Dopirak and even Patterson and a AAA/AAAA starting pitcher for a SS and Ichiro.

 

The other lineup is the Angels. A dark horse for a trading partner would be Astros who now realize that Clemens is not returning and will need to rebuild. The thing is a ST trading partner is often a surprise but it appears certain that the Cubs cannot go into the season without a CF'er or a SS both who are this uncertain.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I disagree that Barrett should be a 3b or DH. That's ludicrous.

[Chocolate Milk]

C: Barrett is in his final year as a offensive catcher who should be playing a platoon OF or 3B in the AL as an occassional spot catcher and DH. Boy I bet on of the Detroit, Oakland, Angels, Boston or Minnesota managers would like to have him in a package. Cubs would probably be better off with Blanco and Soto while they groom Fox than Barrett when it is all said and done.

 

Can't disagree with you more here.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I disagree that Barrett should be a 3b or DH. That's ludicrous.

 

Ditto

[BigbadB]

CERA in 2006:

 

White: 4.98

Barrett: 4.57

 

The Cubs won/loss percentage is worse than their season total for games Hank White caught.

[CuseCubFan69]

CERA in 2006:

 

White: 4.98

Barrett: 4.57

 

The Cubs won/loss percentage is worse than their season total for games Hank White caught.

 

I don't understand the value of that stat. If Blanco catches for worse pitchers he's the worst catcher?

[BigbadB]

CERA in 2006:

 

White: 4.98

Barrett: 4.57

 

The Cubs won/loss percentage is worse than their season total for games Hank White caught.

 

I don't understand the value of that stat. If Blanco catches for worse pitchers he's the worst catcher?

 

If they are catching different people, it is difficult to get a measure of the value of that stat. Being that they are on the same roster, both caught a decent percentage of the same starters, therefore I think the stat has some merit.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

[CuseCubFan69]

CERA in 2006:

 

White: 4.98

Barrett: 4.57

 

The Cubs won/loss percentage is worse than their season total for games Hank White caught.

 

I don't understand the value of that stat. If Blanco catches for worse pitchers he's the worst catcher?

 

If they are catching different people, it is difficult to get a measure of the value of that stat. Being that they are on the same roster, both caught a decent percentage of the same starters, therefore I think the stat has some merit.

 

I understand what you're saying but in baseball there are so many variables. Just say Blanco is catching Z and Pedro is the other pitcher and Barrett catches Z the next time and Marquis was the other pitcher, I don't know, I just don't see that stat as working.

[CuseCubFan69]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

 

Barrett can not play every game at catcher and that's the reasoning behind it. I'm for Barrett playing 3rd if and only if Ramirez is hurt and Barrett needs a day off from behind the plate and he's the best option. If the Cubs have a Macias type guy to play third I'd rather have Barrett there instead. Now, if the Cubs can put DeRosa at third and Theriot at 2nd and give Barrett the day off, that I'm for.

[BigbadB]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

 

Barrett can not play every game at catcher and that's the reasoning behind it. I'm for Barrett playing 3rd if and only if Ramirez is hurt and Barrett needs a day off from behind the plate and he's the best option. If the Cubs have a Macias type guy to play third I'd rather have Barrett there instead. Now, if the Cubs can put DeRosa at third and Theriot at 2nd and give Barrett the day off, that I'm for.

 

I'd rather give DeRosa the nod at 3b and put Theriot at 2nd while giving Barrett a valuable day off to rest.

[CuseCubFan69]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

 

Barrett can not play every game at catcher and that's the reasoning behind it. I'm for Barrett playing 3rd if and only if Ramirez is hurt and Barrett needs a day off from behind the plate and he's the best option. If the Cubs have a Macias type guy to play third I'd rather have Barrett there instead. Now, if the Cubs can put DeRosa at third and Theriot at 2nd and give Barrett the day off, that I'm for.

 

I'd rather give DeRosa the nod at 3b and put Theriot at 2nd while giving Barrett a valuable day off to rest.

 

Me too but I'm still not sure on how good Theriot is going to be. I think and hope he'll be a 270/350 guy off the bench but he's still an unknown variable.

[baseball7897]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

 

Barrett can not play every game at catcher and that's the reasoning behind it. I'm for Barrett playing 3rd if and only if Ramirez is hurt and Barrett needs a day off from behind the plate and he's the best option. If the Cubs have a Macias type guy to play third I'd rather have Barrett there instead. Now, if the Cubs can put DeRosa at third and Theriot at 2nd and give Barrett the day off, that I'm for.

 

When was the last time Barrett took a groundball over at 3B? I would rather have a guy like Theriot manage that position than having Barrett risking injury at 3B.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs are in a tough position in regard to Barrett. I don't think Fox will make it as a catcher, meaning I don't think Fox will make it all. His defense behind the plate is very suspect.

 

If the Cubs draft the college catcher in the first round (Weiters?) and he is good enough to stick there, I would have no trouble keeping Barrett for another year or two.

 

However, Barrett is a tradeable asset. On the other hand the Cubs offense needs him to produce if they are going to contend.

 

Tough situation.

[CuseCubFan69]

I don't think the Cubs would be better off with Blanco over Barrett. In fact, I know they wouldn't; that's absurd. But I don't think the Cubs should plan on Barrett being their longterm catcher either.

 

Barrett can not play every game at catcher and that's the reasoning behind it. I'm for Barrett playing 3rd if and only if Ramirez is hurt and Barrett needs a day off from behind the plate and he's the best option. If the Cubs have a Macias type guy to play third I'd rather have Barrett there instead. Now, if the Cubs can put DeRosa at third and Theriot at 2nd and give Barrett the day off, that I'm for.

 

When was the last time Barrett took a groundball over at 3B? I would rather have a guy like Theriot manage that position than having Barrett risking injury at 3B.

 

He could work on it in the spring a little and what if Theriot is worse with the bat than Blanco this year?

[davearm]

the Cubs cannot go into the season without a CF'er or a SS both who are this uncertain

I don't think the Cubs view either situation nearly as bleakly as you do.

 

CF is only an issue if Soriano can't handle it. That remains to be seen, so there's a bit of uncertainty there, although there are alternatives readily available (Jones, or Pie + Theriot) if Soriano doesn't work out.

 

I've yet to read or hear anything to contradict the idea that Izturis is cemented into SS. No uncertainty whatsoever there, at least not from within the club.

 

At this point, I'd be very surprised to see a new everyday player brought in.

 

That's not to say that I wouldn't personally love to see a guy like Ichiro brought in to put the CF question to bed once and for all -- assuming the pricetag would be reasonable. I just see that possibility as extremely remote right now.

[Ivy Walls]

CERA in 2006:

 

White: 4.98

Barrett: 4.57

 

The Cubs won/loss percentage is worse than their season total for games Hank White caught.

 

I don't understand the value of that stat. If Blanco catches for worse pitchers he's the worst catcher?

 

If they are catching different people, it is difficult to get a measure of the value of that stat. Being that they are on the same roster, both caught a decent percentage of the same starters, therefore I think the stat has some merit.

 

 

Let's start with the fact that last year Cubs started almost 100 games with rookie AAA pitchers, only one really stuck the last 6 weeks of the season (Hill)

 

The years past Blanco (White is cute but....racially tinged as that surnames regardless of their meaning remain the same), has been a better catcher and the games caught have had lower era's.

 

Barrett is a liability as a defensive catcher. He also is a FA next year.

 

My book is find a way to trade for IROD and be done with it that said Barrett would be a great pick up on a AL team where he could catch some, DH, and play a position some and be a full time bat in the lineup.

 

As for CF, yes Soriano made a statement he likes CF, sees the ball and possibly that is mute....and then the Cubs could go with the 4 OF'ers, (even have Floyd face LH'ers over Jones),

 

but SS is still a huge problem.....

[BigbadB]

Pudge is working on age 36 and makes 10m a year. I'll take Barrett.

 

Pudge had one of the best pitching staff's in baseball last year. It really isn't all about the catcher.

[CuseCubFan69]

Pudge is working on age 36 and makes 10m a year. I'll take Barrett.

 

Pudge had one of the best pitching staff's in baseball last year. It really isn't all about the catcher.

 

If he meant ARod I'm for it but I agree not for IRod. All these Rods and Miggy's it gets confusing.

[BigbadB]

That's why I usually just refer to him as Pudge.

[Outshined_One]

The years past Blanco (White is cute but....racially tinged as that surnames regardless of their meaning remain the same), has been a better catcher and the games caught have had lower era's.

 

Barrett is a liability as a defensive catcher. He also is a FA next year.

 

Blanco has also had the luxury of being the primary catcher for Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux during that time. You can't make the argument in one sentence that rookie pitchers artificially inflated everyone's ERA and then come right back and say that Blanco's games have had a lower ERA while with the Cubs without mentioning that fact.

 

Face it, if you catch better pitchers, your CERA will be pretty darn good.

 

Addressing some of the other ideas in this thread, the Cubs already have a number of potential regulars on this team who will be offensive liabilities. Asking this team to play Blanco every day over Barrett simply because Barrett is inadequate defensively would insert one more terrible bat in the lineup. Soto might have nice OBP numbers, but his offensive potential is significantly lower than Barrett in any given year.

 

If you're going to replace Barrett, find someone who either won't be an abyss of offensive putridity or who isn't likely to be on the decline, like Ivan Rodriguez. The hope is that Wieters will be available and could stick at catcher, but I really have doubts that a guy comparable in size to Adam Dunn would be able to stick behind the dish.

[Amazing_Grace]

Regardless of their long-term plans, the Cubs can't afford not to stick with Barrett at catcher through this season. Their offense is OK, but isn't good enough to play all-glove no-hit players at 2 positions (C and SS). Now, if Theriot were to win the starting SS job at some point in this season, trading Barrett might become feasible, depending on the deal. I doubt that Barrett stays with the Cubs after this year. He'll be a FA and if he has another year like his last, he'll be due a big payday.

 

There are really no "long-term" solutions at catcher. More than any other position, catchers break down as they age and become injury risks. The few that are solid offensive players almost all switch positions or DH at the end of their career. Pudge is the only guy I remember that was a decent offensive player that has remained a catcher his entire career.

 

On another note, I think that the Cubs roster is mostly set except for the 5th starter, the last couple pen guys, and the second backup IF. I'd expect that at midseason, the Cubs will probably be looking to upgrade their offense somewhere, and maybe to unload Marquis. The two positions that I'd expect are possible upgrade spots are 2b, where DeRosa/Theriot may both tank, and Izturis, who stinks to begin with and is often injured. If the Cubs don't extend Z, look for a possible Tejada trade.

[craig]

Blanco has also had the luxury of being the primary catcher for Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux during that time. Y

 

You made the point that had immediatley popped into my head earlier in the thread. CERA's are only potentially interesting if the catchers are catching the same pitchers.

 

[/i]

[Rob]

CERA has always been regarded a junk stat. It's fun to play around with, but it doesn't mean a bloody thing.

[CuseCubFan69]

CERA has always been regarded a junk stat. It's fun to play around with, but it doesn't mean a bloody thing.

 

Since I'm more of a WHIP guy I'm surprised they don't have a CWHIP.