Looking at the Potential 2007 Roster

[radarluv1]

Do you see Mark Prior on the rotation at the start of the season? Does anyone?

 

Until I see what happens in ST, I can't answer that. He's not rehabbing from surgery, so right now I don't see why he couldn't be there.

 

I'm not a doctor and I haven't seen his medical reports, so I don't know.

 

Considering there is still four months to Opening Day, I don't know why he shouldn't be ready to go.

 

You'd think that, and still I doubt he'll pitch before May.

 

why may, the warmer weather? it sounds like nobody really knows, but if he cant pitch in april i dont see how august is likely either.

[Ivy Walls]

as it stands you are correct, but unless something strange happens I suspect that Hendry has a couple trades to make.

 

First, I don't think Floyd can pass a physical so the Cubs are not in any hurry adding him to the bench.

 

Second, Cubs have perceived depth in pitching, especially the bullpen in that they have bodies. My guess is that Hendry is waiting for unofficial reports about Prior, Miller and Wood.

 

Third this is not a balanced roster yet.

 

Fourth, I suspect that Pie, Moore, Marshall, Mateo, Marmol, Ryu and even Cedeno have seasoning needed in AAA.

 

Lastly, I don't like the current defensive alignment in the OF, far too weak in all positions. Soriano is best suited for left field, he then offers the club a strength there with his arm. Murton might turn into a star but unless he develops a canon in RF or more speed for CF he is not as good as Soriano, so where does he play? I could be wrong and Soriano could play RF and Murton LF, but who plays CF. Jones simply sucks. He throws with one finger and the league will run,,,run....run....and score at will, he can't hit LHP.

 

The middle infield is 34th done. DeRosa is okay at 2B, big improvement from Walker/Perez and Blanco is a good platoon mate, but Barrett is a championship caliber top defender. So there is still problems up the middle, where even an improvement at SS could be had.

 

So looking at the situation Hendry is not done yet. I has been discussed over and over again. The other issue is the Cubs need another big bat in the lineup.

 

My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up.

 

So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

[CubsWin]

Do you see Mark Prior on the rotation at the start of the season? Does anyone?

It's possible. We won't know until spring training.

[Sammy Sofa]

My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up.

 

So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

 

As much as I love A-Rod, I'd forget he ever existed if the Cubs could somehow spin an elaborate trade to snag Cabrera. Why would anyone want A-Rod over Baby Pujols?

[CubsWin]

First, I don't think Floyd can pass a physical so the Cubs are not in any hurry adding him to the bench.

You're probably right. I didn't think of Floyd wanting to wait to get as healthy as possible.

 

I suspect that Pie, Moore, Marshall, Mateo, Marmol, Ryu and even Cedeno have seasoning needed in AAA.

I agree. Ideally, I want all of them in AAA at least to start this season regardless of how well they do in spring training.

 

Lastly, I don't like the current defensive alignment in the OF, far too weak in all positions. Soriano is best suited for left field, he then offers the club a strength there with his arm. Murton might turn into a star but unless he develops a canon in RF or more speed for CF he is not as good as Soriano, so where does he play? I could be wrong and Soriano could play RF and Murton LF, but who plays CF. Jones simply sucks. He throws with one finger and the league will run,,,run....run....and score at will, he can't hit LHP.

I agree Jones will not be an asset defensively. However, his bat should go a long way towards counteracting that.

 

I don't understand why Soriano would be a bad RFer. All outfielders need good speed to run down balls and Soriano definitely has that. They also need to run good routes to get to the balls. His lack of experience may have him run less than the best routes, but that should change over time. What a RFer really needs is a great arm to cut down runners trying to get to third. He's got that. Rarely will a LFer need to gun down a runner trying to get back to first, so it is less important for a LFer to possess such an arm. Thus, it seems, so long as Soriano learns to run good routes, he has all the necessary tools to make a very good RFer.

 

I remember someone posting how Murton rated as an above average LFer according to some authority out there, so the corners should be solid defensively. Jones will be well above average offensively for CF, so that will offset his defensive liabilities somewhat if not altogether. Plus, Jacque is really just keeping the position warm until Pie is ready, and Felix is an excellent defensive CFer.

 

The middle infield is 34th done. DeRosa is okay at 2B, big improvement from Walker/Perez and Blanco is a good platoon mate, but Barrett is a championship caliber top defender. So there is still problems up the middle, where even an improvement at SS could be had.

I agree DeRosa is a defensive improvement and should at least equal the offensive output of last season's secondbasemen, if not far surpass it. SS is a problem. I still have hope for Cedeno. I'm looking forward to him proving himself once again in AAA though I have my doubts. In house, the Cubs only have prayers that Izturis returns to his All-Star year production and stays healthy enough to shut it down at SS defensively, or that Cedeno continues his development, or that Moore can field the position well enough to play SS at the major league level and his bat continues to develop. None are very safe gambles to bet on.

 

Outside of the organization, there are some decent trade options. Rumor had it that the Tigers were close to DFAing Omar Infante. He's not great, but he'd be better than anything the Cubs currently have. The '07 FA class of SS is very thin. It includes Carlos Guillen of Detroit and Michael Young of Texas, but there is no guarantee that either of them will not be extended before the end of next season. Guillen is very good offensively for a SS but supposed to be a butcher with the glove. It would be doubtful that the deep pockets of Tom Hicks will let his prized SS leave Arlington. After those two, however, there's nothing. So its likely either trade or pray.

 

The other issue is the Cubs need another big bat in the lineup.

I don't know where this notion comes from. The Cubs need more OBP, but with a healthy Lee, a resigned Ramirez, the addition of Soriano, an emerging Murton, Jones in CF and an in-his-prime Barrett behind the plate, the Cubs have plenty of power in their line-up.

 

The only holes power-wise are SS, 2B and pitcher and not many other teams in the NL can say that. You could put Murton in that group, but after the 2nd half he put up (a .522 SLG and .912 OPS) and the fact that he was 24 while doing, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Do you see Mark Prior on the rotation at the start of the season? Does anyone?

 

Until I see what happens in ST, I can't answer that. He's not rehabbing from surgery, so right now I don't see why he couldn't be there.

 

I'm not a doctor and I haven't seen his medical reports, so I don't know.

 

Considering there is still four months to Opening Day, I don't know why he shouldn't be ready to go.

 

Don't make it longer than it is...

[nilodnayr]

My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up.

 

So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

 

As much as I love A-Rod, I'd forget he ever existed if the Cubs could somehow spin an elaborate trade to snag Cabrera. Why would anyone want A-Rod over Baby Pujols?

 

IMO for the cubs, ARod is actually a better fit than Miggy. We already have ARam at third. ARod at short over Izturis > Miggy at left over Murton. Especially given the amount of talent one would need to give up to acquire either player. Don't get me wrong, I love Miggy.

[Guest]

Do you see Mark Prior on the rotation at the start of the season? Does anyone?

 

Until I see what happens in ST, I can't answer that. He's not rehabbing from surgery, so right now I don't see why he couldn't be there.

 

I'm not a doctor and I haven't seen his medical reports, so I don't know.

 

Considering there is still four months to Opening Day, I don't know why he shouldn't be ready to go.

 

Don't make it longer than it is...

You'd be amazed at how long it took me to convince a coworker that the fourth floor was only three floors up from the lobby. :D

[Guest]

My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up.

 

So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

 

As much as I love A-Rod, I'd forget he ever existed if the Cubs could somehow spin an elaborate trade to snag Cabrera. Why would anyone want A-Rod over Baby Pujols?

If ARod can still play SS, there's a pretty good reason for it. An IF with Lee, ARod and Ramirez could have me playing 2B and still be the best in baseball.

 

Offensively, at least!

[Sammy Sofa]

My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up.

 

So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

 

As much as I love A-Rod, I'd forget he ever existed if the Cubs could somehow spin an elaborate trade to snag Cabrera. Why would anyone want A-Rod over Baby Pujols?

If ARod can still play SS, there's a pretty good reason for it. An IF with Lee, ARod and Ramirez could have me playing 2B and still be the best in baseball.

 

Offensively, at least!

 

Well, there are the if's...A-Rod being back at SS is a big if. I don't think he'd be terrible, but he's packed on some meat since his days playing that spot and has likely lost some quickness. Hopefully he'd be able to get back into his fighting form. And I guess I just see Cabrera as a much better offensive option, especially because of his age.

 

Both, however, are pipe dreams, and will never ever play for the Chicago Cubs.

[frostwyrm]

Moore only has about a week's worth ABs above AA, given that and his future ceiling, I don't think it would be wise to potentially drop his trade value or stunt his development for a back-up role to a player who'll be here for the next 4 years.

 

Do you really think Jim Hendry cares about the future?

[10man]

Well, there are the if's...A-Rod being back at SS is a big if. I don't think he'd be terrible, but he's packed on some meat since his days playing that spot and has likely lost some quickness. Hopefully he'd be able to get back into his fighting form. And I guess I just see Cabrera as a much better offensive option, especially because of his age.

 

Both, however, are pipe dreams, and will never ever play for the Chicago Cubs.

Never say never! especially with Florida's miniscule payroll. The chances of them being unable to keep Cabrera when he hits FA is pretty good i think.

[NCCubFan]

Both, however, are pipe dreams, and will never ever play for the Chicago Cubs.

Sure they will. Just not while they still have any talent left. :D

[Sammy Sofa]

Both, however, are pipe dreams, and will never ever play for the Chicago Cubs.

Sure they will. Just not while they still have any talent left. :D

 

That would be hilarious if it wasn't so true.

 

*Sobs*

 

10man, I don't see Florida moving Cabrera at this point unless they get completely blown away with a trade offer. The Cubs would need to at least involve one other team and probably even a second to get the Marlins considering moving Cabrera, short of just completely emptying the farm system of what little talent it has.

[craig]

...Here's the roster as I see it.

...

Bench: Daryle Ward, Angel Pagan, Henry Blanco, Ryan Theriot

 

That's 24 players.

 

There's one spot still available. It 's likely a bench spot, but could be another bullpen arm....

 

If Miller is healhty, the Cubs are going to have a roster crunch. Novoa could also be a possibility in the bullpen as well.

 

I think the Cubs will make one more signing for a bench player. I also suspect Floyd will be signed and Jacque will be dealt. If that happens, a CF will need to be added. It could be Pie or it could be someone from outside the organization.

 

Thanks for the list and thinking things through. Several thoughts, obviously from my perspective:

 

1. Pitching is set. There is no surplus or any need to be trading surplus, unless Novoa is so considered. We've got ten pitchers, then Wood and Prior as 11th and 12th, and Miller and Novoa as the 13th and 14th pitchers. That's a surplus only if each of three things happen: a) Miller looks like serious value, b) Miller, Prior, and Wood are all three simultaneously healthy this spring, and c) the other ten pitchers are all healty. The probability of all 13 pitchers being healthy and of Miller looking so good that he's a real value, that probability is too vanishingly small to make any trades based on that assumption. Hendry may be no genius, but he's not dumb enough to assume that all 13 of his pitchers are going to be healthy at the same time, especially when three of them are Prior, Miller, and wood.

 

2. We need one bench player. An outfielder fits best. But, Hendry has committed CF long-term to Pie, and hasn't been willing to pay very much for a place-holder. At present, the 25th man is Felix Pie. Until he fails or until a place-holder becomes available at a reasonable cost, Pie is the 25th man.

 

Floyd still seems a likely sign, but to large degree he seems redundant to Jones. My guess is either you keep Jones and forget Floyd, or you trade Jones and replace him with Floyd. But roster-wise, I think between the two of them they occupy one roster spot.

 

Of course I may be wrong. If the last spot goes to Floyd but they also have Jones, then the roster is full. If so, that would require a very unexpected solution to the CF puzzle.

[CubinNY]

 

1. Pitching is set. There is no surplus or any need to be trading surplus, unless Novoa is so considered. We've got ten pitchers, then Wood and Prior as 11th and 12th, and Miller and Novoa as the 13th and 14th pitchers. That's a surplus only if each of three things happen: a) Miller looks like serious value, b) Miller, Prior, and Wood are all three simultaneously healthy this spring, and c) the other ten pitchers are all healty. The probability of all 13 pitchers being healthy and of Miller looking so good that he's a real value, that probability is too vanishingly small to make any trades based on that assumption. Hendry may be no genius, but he's not dumb enough to assume that all 13 of his pitchers are going to be healthy at the same time, especially when three of them are Prior, Miller, and wood.

 

2. We need one bench player. An outfielder fits best. But, Hendry has committed CF long-term to Pie, and hasn't been willing to pay very much for a place-holder. At present, the 25th man is Felix Pie. Until he fails or until a place-holder becomes available at a reasonable cost, Pie is the 25th man.

 

Floyd still seems a likely sign, but to large degree he seems redundant to Jones. My guess is either you keep Jones and forget Floyd, or you trade Jones and replace him with Floyd. But roster-wise, I think between the two of them they occupy one roster spot.

 

Of course I may be wrong. If the last spot goes to Floyd but they also have Jones, then the roster is full. If so, that would require a very unexpected solution to the CF puzzle.

 

The 2007 Chicago Cubs: A jigsaw puzzle with 25 pieces, some of which don't fit.

[craig]

I wonder if Huff contract relates to Jones market. Perhaps some team thought they'd get Huff for little more per-year dollars than Jacque would cost, and at no cost in talent. Perhaps with Hoff off the board, that might firm up the interest in Jones.

 

Or, perhaps the view is that Huff is a better player than Jacque. If so, the fact that it took Huff this look to get <$7/per (and he had to take it from a non-contender) might suggest that there is no market to not only pay inferior Jacque $5/year but also give up meaningful talent besides.

[dacheezwhiz]

i dont see us starting the year without marshall

[fromthestretch]

i dont see us starting the year without marshall

 

I don't see how they could start the year with him.

 

Starters:

Zambrano

Lilly

Hill

Marquis

Miller

Prior

 

Relievers:

Dempster

Wood

Howry

Eyre

Ohman

Wuertz

Cotts

Novoa

 

Even without Marshall, the Cubs have a ton of arms. Plus, if I'm not mistaken, Marshall has options left. If both Prior and Miller are not healthy on opening day, Marshall could start out the season as the "fifth" starter. Otherwise, I don't see how he fits right now.

[CuseCubFan69]

What is going to happen if Prior and Miller can only pitch out of the pen too? That pen is going to be very crowded if that's the case.

[AlwaysaCub]

i dont see us starting the year without marshall

 

I don't see how they could start the year with him.

 

Starters:

Zambrano

Lilly

Hill

Marquis

Miller

Prior

 

Relievers:

Dempster

Wood

Howry

Eyre

Ohman

Wuertz

Cotts

Novoa

 

Even without Marshall, the Cubs have a ton of arms. Plus, if I'm not mistaken, Marshall has options left. If both Prior and Miller are not healthy on opening day, Marshall could start out the season as the "fifth" starter. Otherwise, I don't see how he fits right now.

 

Everyone so far has listed Ohman, Cotts, and Eyre in the pen to start the season. Why on earth do we need 3 lefties? One of those guys should go, or else you'll end up letting at least one of those guys rot on the bench.

[Guest]

What is going to happen if Prior and Miller can only pitch out of the pen too? That pen is going to be very crowded if that's the case.

Assuming Wood is healthy? Then:

 

If Prior can't pitch enough to start, he'll be on the DL.

 

If Miller can't pitch enough to start, he'll either be on the DL or waived.

[CuseCubFan69]

What is going to happen if Prior and Miller can only pitch out of the pen too? That pen is going to be very crowded if that's the case.

Assuming Wood is healthy? Then:

 

If Prior can't pitch enough to start, he'll be on the DL.

 

If Miller can't pitch enough to start, he'll either be on the DL or waived.

 

I'm not sure about that Tim. If Prior is having "strength" problems he might have to work out of the pen in order to get himself back in shape. It's possible he might go to Iowa for a short stint but his whole situation seems strange to me and the pen might be a place where he can still contribute to the Cubs.

 

I definately see Miller coming out of the pen if he can't start and since when has Hendry actually let a guy go by releasing him?

[fromthestretch]

i dont see us starting the year without marshall

 

I don't see how they could start the year with him.

 

Starters:

Zambrano

Lilly

Hill

Marquis

Miller

Prior

 

Relievers:

Dempster

Wood

Howry

Eyre

Ohman

Wuertz

Cotts

Novoa

 

Even without Marshall, the Cubs have a ton of arms. Plus, if I'm not mistaken, Marshall has options left. If both Prior and Miller are not healthy on opening day, Marshall could start out the season as the "fifth" starter. Otherwise, I don't see how he fits right now.

 

Everyone so far has listed Ohman, Cotts, and Eyre in the pen to start the season. Why on earth do we need 3 lefties? One of those guys should go, or else you'll end up letting at least one of those guys rot on the bench.

 

I agree that one of them should be dealt. Novoa really has no spot on this team either. However, with all of those guys currently still with the Cubs, there's really no spot for Marshall at this time. Even if you do get rid of one of the bullpen lefties and Novoa, there are still six relievers there (and I didn't even include the other young pitchers who possibly could be fighting for a spot: Rapada, Marmol, Mateo, Ryu). Even if they want to carry seven relievers, I imagine the Cubs would rather have Marshall starting once every five days at Iowa instead of using him as the last guy out of the bullpen. He's obviously not going to take Zambrano's spot, and Lilly and Marquis' contracts pretty much ensure that they'll be in the rotation. Just going by last season, Hill has earned a spot ahead of Marshall. That leaves Prior and Miller. If either of those guys are healthy, they'll be given a chance before Marshall will.

[craig]

Everyone so far has listed Ohman, Cotts, and Eyre in the pen to start the season. Why on earth do we need 3 lefties? One of those guys should go, or else you'll end up letting at least one of those guys rot on the bench.

 

1. If you carry 12 pitchers, as is normal, there are often innings for anybody who is getting anybody out. All three could pitch frequently, even if they are all lefties, if they are all pitching decently. Of the three, the one most likely to pitch bad is probably Cotts. If he's pitching badly, so that he pitches only occassionally in junk situations and "rots" on the bench, that wouldn't be a big problem.

 

2. Eyre has been used extensively as a full inning guy. Not sure why that needs to change.

 

3. Cotts is lefty and has been used extensively as a situational LOOGY type, but I believe his career splits are pretty neutral. It may be that he'd be fine for full inning work. Or long relief.

 

4. In Sunday Trib, Rothschild explicitly said that Cotts would get camp innings to prepare him for rotation. If through injury or Miller being rotten it turns out that intended four + Miller/Prior do not fill out the rotation, I believe that Marshall and Cotts are the next layer of rotation candidates. Ahead of Guzman (Iowa), Marmol (relief track) and Mateo. And even if he isn't actually in rotation, Cotts might well function in the 2004 Rusch role, lefty who can spot start, pick up long-relief innings, or pick up some short relief as situations demand. I'm interested in Cotts, but not really much more worried about him "rotting" in that role than any of us were worried about Rusch rotting in 2004 or 2005.

 

5. In the unlikely event that all 13 pitchers look healthy and good, Prior and Miller and Wood included, Miller and Cotts would probably sit as the bottom pair fighting over 12/13th spots. Miller can be released, his contract isn't large. If Cotts looks not-too-hot, I believe he may still have options left; he might perhaps get sent to Iowa. Or, if you want to keep Miller but can't farm Cotts, he'd be easy to trade. Young lefty, has had some success even if not consistently, some team will give you a prospect for him if you're just trying to clear your roster. I don't imagine his trade value will deviate too far from the Aardsma-level that it had zero games ago.

Edited January 2, 2007 by craig