Guzman, Marshall, and Marmol: Rank 'em

[TXCubsFan]

How would you rank Guzman, Marshall, and Marmol for 2007 and long-term potential? Are any of the three serious trade bait?

 

Discuss why you ranked them as you did.

[Drew Doughty]

As starters?

 

Guzman > Marshall > Marmol

 

Guzman has had the most success at every level he's been at. I think Marshall has the best chance to reach his ceiling out of the three, but I don't think his ceiling is as high as Guzman's, who could still be a middle-to-top of the rotation guy. Marmol will eventually be a pretty good reliever in the mold of Zumaya.

[baseball7897]

Marshall > Marmol > Guzman

 

I like Marshall's poise on the mound. Marmol has more potential to succeed being in the bullpen. There is also some things he needs to work out mechanically. Guzman has the better arm out of them. But his control is suspect and his breaking ball is not consistent enough.

[A New Era]

Marmol/Marshall/Guzman.

 

Marmol because I listened to guys like Brenley who was very impressed by Marmol. He seems to have enough pitches to be a starter, and haven't many people here compared him to Zambrano? As alot of people saw Zambrano as a reliever at first, and look at him now.

 

Marshall is very young, and already has that "poise" on the mound. And he's got very good control, and good stuff.

 

Guzman still can't seem to find his control. So until he actually shows something, and has many great games in a row, I rate him low. .

[Post Count Padder]

Guzman > Marshall > Marmol

[Northsider]

Marmol > Guzman > Marshall

 

Marmol has the stuff, and has been a pitcher for a short enough time that he still has a very good chance of finding his control. Also, his short stint as a pitcher probably means that very little damage has as yet been done to his arm, so I expect him to stay healthier longer. Also, having been a catcher, he probably has a decent understanding of the mental side of pitching, so he won't have to catch up as much there. I personally think he has a very high ceiling, the type that could generate a consistent 130 ERA+.

 

Guzman and Marshall both have had some injury problems, and while Guzman's control isn't showing up, I think that's just a matter of time if he stays healthy, which (I think) he was last year. Marshall was injured as recently as last year. He has some potential, but I don't think he has an ace's ceiling, while Guzman still does despite many injuries.

 

Also, why isn't Mateo included?

[davearm]

Guzman has the most upside of the three, and I (perhaps too stubbornly) refuse to give up on that potential. The guy's only 25. He's still got a lot of baseball ahead of him if he can only stay healthy. Call me optimistic, but I think he's finally got the injuries behind him and he's going to be a big contributor right away.

 

Marmol's got electric stuff and plenty of velocity, and he's also still real young -- and learning. I'd put him at #2, although he's more of a long-term value as opposed to a big part of 2007.

 

Lots of positives with Marshall. Good stuff, good poise, lots of confidence. I just don't think he's got the same high ceiling as the other two, so he's #3.

[CoolHandLuke]

Guzman Marmol Marshall

 

My reasoning is nonexistant.

[Guest]

Guzman > Marmol > Marshall

 

Guzman:

 

Of the three, Angel has the highest ceiling. He has in the past shown mastery (command and control) of three plus pitches. His changeup was a real differentiating pitch for him in the past. He did not show it all the time last year but had days where he had the feel for it again. While he didn't show any real consistency with any of those pitches last year, I saw enough flashes of the old stuff that I believe he is set to break out this season (2007).

 

Marmol:

 

I remember sitting right behind home plate watching Marmol pitch in West Tenn this past season. I got a great view of his breaking pitch, which was coming to the plate in the low 70's with a much more similar motion to his fastball than is normal for a curve ball. It also had a late, sharp, 11-5 break on it. I later talked to Ron and he had to work hard to convince me that pitch was actually a slider and not a curve. It was a very high quality pitch that day. Consistency seems to be the big issue for Marmol and I'd like to see what he could do with another minor league season under his belt. High ceiling, but not yet ready.

 

Marshall:

 

I like Sean, but not as much as the other two. I don't like his curve or fastball as much as the others and also doesn't have the changeup that Guzman had in the past and flashed last season at times. Sean is a good prospect, but I don't think he has the ceiling the other two possess.

[Rob]

Guzman / Marmol / Marshall

 

Guzman easily has the highest ceiling of these guys, and while last season was nasty, I still refuse to cut bait on a guy that posted a 40:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 30 innings just two years ago. In the same vein that Rich Hill was somewhat illogically trusted by Jim Hendry, I feel that way about Guzman this year.

 

Marmol has a very high ceiling as well, thanks to his filthy stuff. And as a converted position player, his arm doesn't have quite the wear and tear that the other guys have. I don't think he'll be too useful for 2007, but come 2009 he could be a real force to be reckoned with.

 

As for Marshall, I'm just not too high on his ceiling. He could be a good #4 for a few years, or a decent #3, but he doesn't have the sort of top of the rotation stuff. He's obviously not without value, but as a gigantic lefty he has perhaps the most perceived value of the group. I'd like to sell high on him if we get the chance.

[CubsWin]

This is tough. As you can see, people think very differently about these guys. They are close in the rankings to each other but all for different reasons.

 

Guzman at one time had top of the rotation potential and was close to reaching it, but injuries have changed all that. Last season was the first in a long time in which he was basically healthy all year long. As was feared, he struggled to regain his pinpoint control due to his time on the DL. The thinking is that the longer Guzman remains healthy, the better his control will get meaning it is just a matter of time before he'll be performing like a top of the rotation starter. There are two problems with this theory. His injuries may have forever altered his delivery and he may never regain his previous form and his next injury could happen tomorrow. So whereas Guzman has come the closest to reaching his ceiling, he also has the most reasons why he may never get there again.

 

Marshall also has struggled with injuries on a consistent basis throughout his career, but that is where the similarities end with Guzman. Marshall's ceiling is likely that of a good 4th starter, maybe 3rd starter. His curve ball is above average, but nothing knee-buckling like Hill's and his fastball is a 2-3 mph slower than Hill's as well. When he can hit his target, Marshall will win you ballgames, but he lacks the high end stuff to be dominating. Maturity-wise he seems major league ready, performance-wise he seems to need more time to consistently hit his marks. I see him as a Jamie Moyer type, possibly a late bloomer in fulfilling his potential but could be serviceable soon.

 

Marmol has the best movement on his pitches than any of the other three, and thats saying something when Guzman's slider is working, but his control has never been as good as either Guzman's or Marshall's. He was converted from a catcher just a few seasons ago, so he has a lot of time still to perfect his delivery. He reminds me more of Juan Cruz than Zambrano. (I've never heard him compared to Z) But just because Cruz struggled as a starter right out of the blocks doesn't mean that Marmol should go to the pen now. He's still got time. But of the 3, he needs the most work at AAA to fine tune his control.

 

The right time to assess these guys is in Mesa 9 weeks from now, but since you are asking now I would say that Guzman has a chance to be really good very soon. How good that chance is is difficult to say, maybe slightly less than a 50% chance. Marshall has a good chance to be solid fairly soon. Marmol might be the best of the bunch (similar ceiling to Guzman without the health issues) but is also the furthest away.

 

They each have trade value, but which one I would be willing to give away really depends on the Cubs roster and how it is filled out the rest of the way. But since I have to answer now, Marshall's the first one to go. The Cubs already have two lefties in the rotation, 3 in the bullpen and high end prospects Veal and Pawelek are both southpaws, so Marshall is expendable. He performed well enough as a rookie last season for GMs to have reason to believe he will one day perform well enough at the major league level to help their team. He is young and mentally mature and lefties are always in demand. If I'm Jim Hendry, he's the one I'm most willing to deal.

 

If I've got to rank them..

 

1. Marmol

1a. Guzman

3. Marshall

 

Oddly, the pitcher that might be most ready to step in as a starter next season wasn't asked about. Juan Mateo performed better than all of these guys last season. We'll see where he fits in come spring training.

[CoolHandLuke]

Guzman > Marmol > Marshall

 

Guzman:

 

Of the three, Angel has the highest ceiling. He has in the past shown mastery (command and control) of three plus pitches. His changeup was a real differentiating pitch for him in the past. He did not show it all the time last year but had days where he had the feel for it again. While he didn't show any real consistency with any of those pitches last year, I saw enough flashes of the old stuff that I believe he is set to break out this season (2007).

 

Marmol:

 

I remember sitting right behind home plate watching Marmol pitch in West Tenn this past season. I got a great view of his breaking pitch, which was coming to the plate in the low 70's with a much more similar motion to his fastball than is normal for a curve ball. It also had a late, sharp, 11-5 break on it. I later talked to Ron and he had to work hard to convince me that pitch was actually a slider and not a curve. It was a very high quality pitch that day. Consistency seems to be the big issue for Marmol and I'd like to see what he could do with another minor league season under his belt. High ceiling, but not yet ready.

 

Marshall:

 

I like Sean, but not as much as the other two. I don't like his curve or fastball as much as the others and also doesn't have the changeup that Guzman had in the past and flashed last season at times. Sean is a good prospect, but I don't think he has the ceiling the other two possess.

 

This is exactly what I didn't know how to say.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Guzman Marmol Marshall

 

My reasoning is nonexistant.

 

I was perplexed until I finally got to this and saw the correct answer thrice.

[CubsWin]

It is important to take into account Guzman's injury history vs. the lack of major injuries/wear on Marmol's arm. Also, since his injuries, Guzman has yet to regain his once excellent control especially within the strike zone, and we must consider the possibility that he may never return to that previous level.

 

Clearly Marmol is not close having the kind of control he will need to succeed at the major league level, but his stuff is Juan Cruz like while his confidence level/mound presence is much better. It seems all Marmol needs is time.

 

Guzman may need less time but he also needs to avoid injury and get back the control within the strike zone he has lost. If he can do that, he'll likely be ready a lot sooner than Marmol will, but at this point, that's still a pretty big if, isn't it?

Edited December 9, 2006 by CubsWin

[Mizzou]

Based on absolutely nothing but mere observation...

 

I'd say Gooz, Marmol, Marshall.

 

I'm not high on Marshall at all.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2007: Guzman, Marshall, Marmol - Guzman showed me enough of the great stuff in spurts last season for me to feel he'll put it together this season. Marmol really needs a bit more time, especially given how new he is to pitching. I'd love to see him get some time at AAA starting. Marshall needs to limit his HRs and improve his control (that's what made him successfull in the minors), but he's still ahead of Marmol for now in the big leagues.

 

Long-term: Guzman, Marmol, Marshall - just based on their ceilings.

 

Guzman would be the toughest for me to give up in a trade but none of them are untouchable.

 

Sounds like almost what Tim said...but I definitely am with him that Guzman is going to break out in 07.

[CubsWin]

2007: Guzman, Marshall, Marmol - Guzman showed me enough of the great stuff in spurts last season for me to feel he'll put it together this season. Marmol really needs a bit more time, especially given how new he is to pitching. I'd love to see him get some time at AAA starting. Marshall needs to limit his HRs and improve his control (that's what made him successfull in the minors), but he's still ahead of Marmol for now in the big leagues.

 

Long-term: Guzman, Marmol, Marshall - just based on their ceilings.

 

Guzman would be the toughest for me to give up in a trade but none of them are untouchable.

 

Sounds like almost what Tim said...but I definitely am with him that Guzman is going to break out in 07.

If the Cubs sign Marquis, will he have a chance to breakout next season?

[Brothaman33]

Guzman was 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA with the Cubs last season

 

he pitched in only 2 games that he went over 5 innings.

 

one he went 6

 

the other he went 5.1

 

he had a game where he gave up 8 runs to the Pirates

he had a game where he gave up 7 runs to the Rockies

 

these arnt exactly world series winning teams

 

Guzman was terrible when he got called up... Unless he can go back to old form i dont see anything from him...

[illiniguy]

Guzman was 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA with the Cubs last season

 

he pitched in only 2 games that he went over 5 innings.

 

one he went 6

 

the other he went 5.1

 

he had a game where he gave up 8 runs to the Pirates

he had a game where he gave up 7 runs to the Rockies

 

these arnt exactly world series winning teams

 

Guzman was terrible when he got called up... Unless he can go back to old form i dont see anything from him...

ake a look at what Z did his first year up, then remember he wasn't even coming off of 3 years of injuries. Guzman was on a terrible team and showed som flashes. Now lets give him that year as what it was, a rehab, and see where he goes.

[TXCubsFan]

Guzman > Marmol > Marshall, for the reasons Tim gave.

 

I think Guzman could be a fixture on the Cubs' staff for a long time. If he and Prior get healthy, we'd have a nasty starting five at some point.

 

Marmol's size and stuff tells me he'll be a great setup man or closer in a couple of years.

 

Marshall is trade bait. I think a team like KC (which would love a solid and cheap #5 starter) or Seattle (Moyer clone in a big park) would be two logical destinations for him.

Edited December 9, 2006 by TXCubsFan

[UK1679666180]

Short-term:

Marshall

Guzman

Marmol

 

Long-term:

Guzman

Marmol

Marshall

[CubColtPacer]

Short-term:

Marshall

Guzman

Marmol

 

Long-term:

Guzman

Marmol

Marshall

 

That's exactly how I feel. If you're not going to use Marshall next year, then you might as well trade him. He is the best right now to step into any teams rotation and so might get something in a trade, but Guzman and Marmol have better upsides overall.

[cubs121]

Guzman

Marmol

Marshall

 

.... I still think that Marshall will do good, but i think Guzman and Marmol have great stuff, along with good potential.

[cubs121]

also, all this talk about Guzman, Marmol, and Marshall... Why isnt anyone talking about guys like Gallagher, Veal, Pawalek. If i had to chose right now out of these guys i would probably put Gallagher and Veal atop the list.

[Rob]

also, all this talk about Guzman, Marmol, and Marshall... Why isnt anyone talking about guys like Gallagher, Veal, Pawalek. If i had to chose right now out of these guys i would probably put Gallagher and Veal atop the list.

 

If we're throwing those guys in...

 

Veal > Gallagher > Guzman > Pawelek > Marmol > Huseby > Marshall > Ryu > Mateo