Cubs Sign Marquis to 3/21

[Kellehers homer]

I do appreciate the positive posts here--I don't have the knee-jerk reaction of "Hendry did it, so it's bad." I think Soriano is going to do well, I think Lilly is going to really surprise people in his new league, and I like Lou as The Man at the end of the bench. But if you check out this article below (and I promise not to post it again), it points out how much the Cubs need to just adjust their thinking and focus toward the minors rather than throwing money at players like, say, Jason Marquis.

 

http://www.beachwoodreporter.com/sports/post_6.php

 

I would be SOOOOOOO much happier if they'd taken this Marquis money and snatched up all the old scouts who put together those old Expos teams: I mean, someone had to find Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine, Randy Johnson, Gary Carter, Tim Wallach, etc.

[Jon]

What are you talking about? I didn't pluck stats here - these are the stats I think are best to look at with pitchers (would rather use HR/9 and ERA+, but couldn't find the baseball-reference site in time).

 

what do you fail to understand about "totality of the body of work and at least an attempt to make a reasoned prediction?"

So you want us to back up our claims but we're not allowed to use stats?

 

Makes sense.

Edited December 9, 2006 by Jon

[Roast]

Ewww, when did the number jump from 20 to 28. Thats nasty.

 

9.3 million per year?

 

yuck.

[RichHillIsABeast]

If you noticed, just about everyone got on the case of the poster who said "we have a #1 and four #5s."

 

even the site admin

 

 

It may not be as bad as a #1 and 4 #5's but it is pretty close

 

We have a:

 

#1 - Z - Can we even re-sign him now?

no #2

a # 3 Ted Lilly

a #4 Rich Hill

 

2 ?'s - Miller and Prior

 

and a guy pretty close to useless Marquis

 

If Rich Hill is a 4, sign me up for a rotation full of 4s.

[frostwyrm]

What Marquis and Lilly do is give the Cubs rotation STABILITY.

 

We got stability from Shawn Estes in 2003.

[Jazz]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

what do you fail to understand about "totality of the body of work and at least an attempt to make a reasoned prediction?"

 

The discussion was surrounding last season, I hadn't made a prediction on pither pitcher for next season. This is the quote I was initially responding to:

 

Sean Marshall outperformed Jason Marquis last year. Is that not the kind of evidence you are looking for.

 

Thanks for being so cordial and polite.

[cbbryan]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

In 2 years, the Cubs could still make a trade. I very much doubt that contracts are going to go down, so even if they stay the same and Lilly is seen as a value at $10/per he could be moved.

 

It's not the end of the world, that's for sure.

 

I don't agree with the Marquis signing, but it's not going to handcuff the Cubs in 2 years.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I do appreciate the positive posts here--I don't have the knee-jerk reaction of "Hendry did it, so it's bad." I think Soriano is going to do well, I think Lilly is going to really surprise people in his new league, and I like Lou as The Man at the end of the bench. But if you check out this article below (and I promise not to post it again), it points out how much the Cubs need to just adjust their thinking and focus toward the minors rather than throwing money at players like, say, Jason Marquis.

 

http://www.beachwoodreporter.com/sports/post_6.php

 

I would be SOOOOOOO much happier if they'd taken this Marquis money and snatched up all the old scouts who put together those old Expos teams: I mean, someone had to find Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine, Randy Johnson, Gary Carter, Tim Wallach, etc.

 

I think the reason we put out the money this offseason is b/c we are trying to develop our own players. We didn't trade away the cream of our crop for one year rental starting pitching.

 

Our farm system will get better. We got Wilken! It's going to take a few years before his picks reach the majors. In the meantime guys like Pie, Veal, Gallagher, EPatt, Pawelek will either make it or they won't.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

I doubt any of the contracts signed this offseason (outside of Soriano) will hurt them if they need to make a trade. I think Rothschild will be able to help Marquis a bit at least to make him somewhere near league average.

 

On the flip side, the Cubs are trying to win now and can use those 3 minor leaguers as trade bait. I doubt too many of the young guys who are at the AAA/MLB cusp right now will be in the system a few years down the road - they'll either have made the Cubs or been traded away.

 

Oh, and Pawelek is more than 2 years away.

Edited December 9, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[jjgman21]

 

If you noticed, just about everyone got on the case of the poster who said "we have a #1 and four #5s."

 

I don't get the point in just criticizing the whole board - you're basically doing what you're complaining about the rest of the board is in being negative.

 

I'm not criticisimg the entire board. I am criticizing hyperbolic posts that lack fairness, logic and reasoning. I am criticizing seletive use of stats instead of the entire body of work as a basis for predictions going forward. I don't know how I can make that any more clear, nor why argument has to be made on that point. I think it pretty self evident that it happens and that it gets nobody anywhere. I want this place to be more like NSBB and less like the ESPN board. I think we all do, and I think we can all pretty much agree posts like with the above characteristics are becoming more and more prevelant. I think it's a bad thing. just my two cents.

[RichHillIsABeast]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot.

[Soul]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

In 2 years, the Cubs could still make a trade. I very much doubt that contracts are going to go down, so even if they stay the same and Lilly is seen as a value at $10/per he could be moved.

 

It's not the end of the world, that's for sure.

 

I don't agree with the Marquis signing, but it's not going to handcuff the Cubs in 2 years.

 

I think a lot of people believe the current pitching market will deflate, leaving the Cubs with overpriced pitchers who can't be moved (without eating some of the contract)

 

And it just might.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

If you noticed, just about everyone got on the case of the poster who said "we have a #1 and four #5s."

 

I don't get the point in just criticizing the whole board - you're basically doing what you're complaining about the rest of the board is in being negative.

 

I'm not criticisimg the entire board. I am criticizing hyperbolic posts that lack fairness, logic and reasoning. I am criticizing seletive use of stats instead of the entire body of work as a basis for predictions going forward. I don't know how I can make that any more clear, nor why argument has to be made on that point. I think it pretty self evident that it happens and that it gets nobody anywhere. I want this place to be more like NSBB and less like the ESPN board. I think we all do, and I think we can all pretty much agree posts like with the above characteristics are becoming more and more prevelant. I think it's a bad thing. just my two cents.

 

I don't think he was talking about you, and I wasn't in my post. It just so happened the person I was talking about mentioned your name in his post.

[cbbryan]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot.

 

Exactly! Put it this way......... I've heard a few reports that teams are calling the Yanks about the availability of Pavano. PAVANO!!!! Teams that need to trade pitching will be able to do so.

[jjgman21]

What are you talking about? I didn't pluck stats here - these are the stats I think are best to look at with pitchers (would rather use HR/9 and ERA+, but couldn't find the baseball-reference site in time).

 

what do you fail to understand about "totality of the body of work and at least an attempt to make a reasoned prediction?"

So you want us to back up our claims but we're not allowed to use stats?

 

Makes sense.

 

don't play daft. you know exactly what I am saying. you don't use one year to evaluate and compare two players potential for the future. I can say "Marquis had a 113 ERA+" and it would be true but that really doesn't encapsulate what we can expect next year or give us a basis to evaluate this signing, now does it?

[frostwyrm]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot.

 

We'll have to eat $$ to move these guys. I just can't believe the market for mediocre pitchers will stay this high.

[jjgman21]

 

If you noticed, just about everyone got on the case of the poster who said "we have a #1 and four #5s."

 

I don't get the point in just criticizing the whole board - you're basically doing what you're complaining about the rest of the board is in being negative.

 

I'm not criticisimg the entire board. I am criticizing hyperbolic posts that lack fairness, logic and reasoning. I am criticizing seletive use of stats instead of the entire body of work as a basis for predictions going forward. I don't know how I can make that any more clear, nor why argument has to be made on that point. I think it pretty self evident that it happens and that it gets nobody anywhere. I want this place to be more like NSBB and less like the ESPN board. I think we all do, and I think we can all pretty much agree posts like with the above characteristics are becoming more and more prevelant. I think it's a bad thing. just my two cents.

 

I don't think he was talking about you, and I wasn't in my post. It just so happened the person I was talking about mentioned your name in his post.

 

his reply was directly to me and in contravention of my post. I cut out the rest for the sake of readability (although my previous attempt to do that backfired).

[RichHillIsABeast]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot.

 

We'll have to eat $$ to move these guys. I just can't believe the market for mediocre pitchers will stay this high.

 

Baseball is making more money than ever. Even the Royals have cash to throw down a hole. I don't see that changing. We have a new labor agreement, so it's not like there's going to be a strike that keeps people from the ballparks.

[cbbryan]

What's interesting to me is that in 2 years, when we are still in the middle of these overpriced contracts, we could have an entire staff worth of young pitchers who are being blocked that could produce well above these guys. Veal, Gallagher, Pawelek, etc...

 

You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot.

 

We'll have to eat $$ to move these guys. I just can't believe the market for mediocre pitchers will stay this high.

 

It doesn't have to go any higher, it just has to maintain. Even if the Cubs have to eat half the contract and then fill the rotation spot left with a prospect they don't lose.

 

There's really no way to say what the market is going to be in year 3 or 4 of Lilly's contract. But if the thought is that a prospect needs a roster spot and you have to make a trade, there's really not a money issue.

 

I also don't think Lilly will be that bad of a contract. I think this would only apply to Marquis deal.

[Jon]

What are you talking about? I didn't pluck stats here - these are the stats I think are best to look at with pitchers (would rather use HR/9 and ERA+, but couldn't find the baseball-reference site in time).

 

what do you fail to understand about "totality of the body of work and at least an attempt to make a reasoned prediction?"

So you want us to back up our claims but we're not allowed to use stats?

 

Makes sense.

 

don't play daft. you know exactly what I am saying. you don't use one year to evaluate and compare two players potential for the future. I can say "Marquis had a 113 ERA+" and it would be true but that really doesn't encapsulate what we can expect next year or give us a basis to evaluate this signing, now does it?

And that wasn't what they were talking about.

[Jazz]

changing pace then, if this is going to be the new market for average pitchers, what will the cubs payroll limit look like at the end of these contracts given inflation, and the fact that we'll be having a new owner. I'm really worried a new owner might lower payroll significantly making these contracts look uglier and uglier. On the other hand, Cuban.....

[Ivy Walls]

Ewww, when did the number jump from 20 to 28. Thats nasty.

 

9.3 million per year?

 

yuck.

 

I also agree that for the Cubs to truly contend more than a WC or close division winner Prior has to emerge as a legitimate #2 ace of the staff.

 

As for Marquis he had a mechanical flaw in '06 that Duncan and Co. failed to identify and Marquis went out and found an old coach and solved it in the off season.

 

Now for the trading merry-go-round, can you say Jones, Dempster and possibly Barrett?

 

To me the real target is someone to occupy CF and then become the 4th OF'er when in mid season Pie emerges. The other big acquisition would be someone like Posada who knows how to win and provide the Cubs a genuine WS catcher.

[Sosa21MVP]

 

At least your crow is going to be enjoyable.

 

LOL. Are you taking a list of posters who don't like the Marquis signing, then(should Marquis actually pitch decent in 2007) call them out in every thread like this:

 

 

"OMG Dude, you send Marquis would suck in Dec, but now he is good man! Dude you have to eat some major crow man! just eat the crow "

 

Yep! And me too! I'm doing the same for Soriano, Hill, Derosa, Izturis, Lilly, and many other players posters are tossing aside as garbage.

 

Please add me to your list for Marquis. I'm pretty optimistic most times but I too must toss Jason on the garbage heap for now. :wink:

[treebird]

i went home for one freaking night, never bothered to check to see what was up for the cubs, and i return to find this.

 

the cubs can go straight to hell.