FoxSports-Cubs ink Lilly to four-year deal

[b_wiggy_66]

should we create a poll for this? Goony vs. Truffle? :D

 

What would be the question? I don't think it's crazy to predict an OBP over .340, I just think it's darn right silly to say you'd be shocked if he didn't surpass .340.

 

Don't forget about Gerald Perry and his new philosophy guys

[b_wiggy_66]

Soriano is a career .325

 

I'll be shocked if Soriano isn't at least .340 next year.

 

Shocked? Are you kidding me? Shocked? You'd be shocked if he had an OBP that wasn't higher than his OBP in every season but 2006? I'm shocked any reasonable person would think this way. There's no way a .335 OBP can be a surprise to anybody next season.

 

Soriano is going to draw his share of IBB next season. Izturis/DeRosa aren't exactly threats.

 

Soriano's OBP will be fine.

 

I'm not sure we'll see many IBB from someone at the leadoff spot with Lee and A-ram behind him

[TruffleShuffle]

Soriano is a career .325

 

I'll be shocked if Soriano isn't at least .340 next year.

 

Shocked? Are you kidding me? Shocked? You'd be shocked if he had an OBP that wasn't higher than his OBP in every season but 2006? I'm shocked any reasonable person would think this way. There's no way a .335 OBP can be a surprise to anybody next season.

 

He showed a huge jump in discipline last year, and will be hitting in a lineup with better players (Lee, Ramirez) behind him. Sosa's OBP jumped from .300 to .373 in a year when he learned how to control the plate, and it didn't go back under .350 until he got old. I'm betting that Soriano figured it out last year - I guess we'll see who's right.

 

Comparing him to Sosa is an absolute waste of time. They aren't even close to the same level. Soriano was barely over .340 last year. For all that discipline, he was still just .351. You'd be shocked by a .011 drop in OBP from a career year? That's just silly.

 

Show me a guy who has doubled his walk total in the same number of games, and who has taken 0.25 more pitches per AB than his career average, and then regressed right back to where he was the next year. Otherwise, I'm sticking with my idea.

 

Hopefully in the pre-season predictions next year, there will be one for Soriano's OBP. You can predict him to be down near his career average, I'll put about .355, and you can be wrong. It'll be fun.

[goonys evil twin]

Hopefully in the pre-season predictions next year, there will be one for Soriano's OBP. You can predict him to be down near his career average, I'll put about .355, and you can be wrong. It'll be fun.

 

It would also be fun if you could read what I wrote. I said it's silly to pretend you'd be shocked by an .011 point drop in OBP, off of a career high. I never said I predicted a drop back to career averages. I'm not sure where I'd predict it to be, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was below .340, and no honest, reasonable person would. If I had to guess right now, I'd probably predict somewhere right around .340.

 

The problem is that a .010 swing in either direction is not the least bit shocking, so whether it's .350 or .330, there's no room for gloating either way.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Soriano is a career .325

 

I'll be shocked if Soriano isn't at least .340 next year.

 

Shocked? Are you kidding me? Shocked? You'd be shocked if he had an OBP that wasn't higher than his OBP in every season but 2006? I'm shocked any reasonable person would think this way. There's no way a .335 OBP can be a surprise to anybody next season.

 

Soriano is going to draw his share of IBB next season. Izturis/DeRosa aren't exactly threats.

 

Soriano's OBP will be fine.

 

I'm not sure we'll see many IBB from someone at the leadoff spot with Lee and A-ram behind him

 

When there is 1/2 out(s) you will. With our pitching staff (excepting Z) and Izturis/DeRosa, that's a very likely event.

 

I doubt we'll ever see Soriano IBBed to lead off an inning as that means Lee gets an AB, but if I was the opposition, I'd role the dice walking Soriano with 2 outs to get to DeRosa or Izturis. I'd definitely do it if there was a slow runner on base in front of Soriano eliminating the SB threat.

[tkenm356]

Soriano is a career .325

 

But he's a career .340OBP guy from the lead-off spot. And had a .368OBP from the lead-off spot last year.

 

Other than that... Keith Law's take on the Lylly signing, not that it's matters, but just throwing it out there...

 

The Cubs also filled a desperate need in their rotation, adding a starter to pitch between Carlos Zambrano and their gaggle of fifth-starter types. Ted Lilly has been an above-average starter in three of the last four years, spending most of that time in a hitters' park in arguably the toughest division in baseball, the AL East. His biggest negative attribute, the fact that he's never reached 200 innings in one season, is largely the result of the way opposing teams have elevated his pitch counts and prevented him from working deep into games. (In 2006, for example, he threw more than seven innings in a start just twice.) Leaving the AL East for the NL Central, where pitchers bat and some batters bat like pitchers, will be a big boost. The Cubs' main concern has to be that Wrigley Field has tended to play as a home run park over the past few years, which may not bode well for Lilly, a flyball pitcher who tends to give up too many longballs even without help from his park. Whether that's enough to overcome Lilly's strengths is an open question, perhaps too big an unknown for four years and $40 million.

[Soul]

Soriano is a career .325

 

But he's a career .340OBP guy from the lead-off spot. And had a .368OBP from the lead-off spot last year.

 

 

One of the things I noticed about Soriano. Last year, even with similar AB's and GP as in previous years, he pretty much doubled his walk totals from any of his other seasons.

 

Hopefully that carries over and he keeps going down that path. Soriano's OBP was also markedly higher last year than it has been in years past, as can be imagined from the increased walk totals.

 

I view walks as just something a hitter can start doing well and continue doing well once he learns it, rather than a "skill" that peaks and declines with age.

[XZero771679666304]

The 2007 Cubs won't be an OBP machine, but will almost certainly be stronger in that department in recent years.

 

That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good.

 

I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP.

 

Soriano is a career .325

DeRosa is a career .331

 

Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship.

 

And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano.

 

The Cubs will score a lot more runs in 2007 than they did in 2006.

 

 

-Pierre was horrid in the first part of last season

-Cedeno and Neifi comprised the middle infield for most of the season

-Lee missed nearly the entire season

-Ramirez slumped badly in the first half

-Barrett missed a lot of time

 

 

Look at some of the OBPs that spent significant time in the lineup last year:

 

Cedeno - .271

Perez - .260

Mabry - .283

Bynum - .308

Pierre - .330 (.289 in April, .267 in May)

Blanco - .304

 

Only Blanco will be back, and figures to spend less tim in the everyday lineup. Izturis is bad too, but the Cubs OBP will not be nearly as bad next season, barring major injury.

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

As of right now, the lineup would be this:

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

 

 

That is a much better offense. Lets say some of the rumored acquisitions take place:

 

Soriano

Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton/Floyd

DeRosa

Izturis

 

Also a much better offense. Either would be good for at least another 100 total runs over the 2006 version.

[XZero771679666304]

Soriano is a career .325

 

But he's a career .340OBP guy from the lead-off spot. And had a .368OBP from the lead-off spot last year.

 

 

One of the things I noticed about Soriano. Last year, even with similar AB's and GP as in previous years, he pretty much doubled his walk totals from any of his other seasons.

 

Hopefully that carries over and he keeps going down that path. Soriano's OBP was also markedly higher last year than it has been in years past, as can be imagined from the increased walk totals.

 

I view walks as just something a hitter can start doing well and continue doing well once he learns it, rather than a "skill" that peaks and declines with age.

 

He was pitched around more than in previous seasons as well. He doesn't figure to be avoided so much with Lee, Ramirez and Barrett following him in the lineup. I think his OBP will be better than his career mark, but not as good as his 2006 mark.

[Cubzfan64]

I view walks as just something a hitter can start doing well and continue doing well once he learns it, rather than a "skill" that peaks and declines with age

 

I agree with that with one caveat - it depends somewhat on the philosophy of the manager/hitting coach/organization.

 

In other words, if being patient at the plate and isn't something that is valued and/or stressed, I think it would take someone with exceptional talent to be able to take walks. The Cubs have preached being aggressive at the plate "to a fault" for the past few years and I believe that not only stunts the growth of potentially great hitters, but I think it can also cause a guy who is becoming more selective at the plate to regress.

 

Not every hitter can be Mark Grace at the plate, but I firmly believe every hitter can improve at reading pitches and knowing the strike zone. I don't care too much if a guy walks or not, and I don't care if he's an aggressive hitter at the plate, what I DO want is to have the majority of my lineup attempting to force the pitcher to throw a hittable pitch by not swinging at balls out of the strikezone so much.

[jyoung55]

I dont know why everyone conceeds that this is a "good point." Any lineup with Soriano, Lee, Aramis and Barrett is going to score some runs.

 

Score some runs is nothing but an empty phrase. The Cubs have had the worst offense in the NL for a long time now, adding Soriano isn't going to make it the best. They've got a long way to go, and right now are probably nothing but above average.

 

That is a gross over sensationalization. Middle of the pack offense when moderately healthy the 3 years prior to 2006 would be an accurate statement. Combine additions with a new philosophy and one would hope that we would go to above middle of the pack in runs scored. So again... why does everyone concede that that is a "good point?"

 

gross over sensationalization? okay megahyperbolicnonsensicalgibberish.

 

You think this offense is going to be great? I sure as heck don't. They are still quite weak in the most important stat needed for scoring runs, and that's OBP. This team is once again going to be an impatient non-walking hack machine. They shouldn't be as bad as before, but they were so bad at that before that they have a very long way to go to get to mediocre. Their physical talent will help them remain above average. But they need more help if they want to be great.

 

I think you should stop being an argumentative hack. (And if you can call what I said gibberish, I can call you a hack) And if "worst offense in the NL for a long time now" isn't "megahyperbolicnonsensicalgibberish," then I don't know what is.

 

You accussed XZero of not reading what you wrote... but you did the same thing. Where did I say the offense would be great? I said above middle of the pack in runs scored... which is what started this... I said they would score some runs. And I think XZero has done a fine job making my other points so I'll leave it at that.

[Garwilly]

The 2007 Cubs won't be an OBP machine, but will almost certainly be stronger in that department in recent years.

 

That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good.

 

I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP.

 

Soriano is a career .325

DeRosa is a career .331

 

Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship.

 

And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano.

 

The Cubs will score a lot more runs in 2007 than they did in 2006.

 

 

-Pierre was horrid in the first part of last season

-Cedeno and Neifi comprised the middle infield for most of the season

-Lee missed nearly the entire season

-Ramirez slumped badly in the first half

-Barrett missed a lot of time

 

 

Look at some of the OBPs that spent significant time in the lineup last year:

 

Cedeno - .271

Perez - .260

Mabry - .283

Bynum - .308

Pierre - .330 (.289 in April, .267 in May)

Blanco - .304

 

Only Blanco will be back, and figures to spend less tim in the everyday lineup. Izturis is bad too, but the Cubs OBP will not be nearly as bad next season, barring major injury.

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

As of right now, the lineup would be this:

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

 

 

That is a much better offense. Lets say some of the rumored acquisitions take place:

 

Soriano

Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton/Floyd

DeRosa

Izturis

 

Also a much better offense. Either would be good for at least another 100 total runs over the 2006 version.

.

 

While I don't disagree with you, you should put a first baseman of some sort in the 2006 lineup.

[XZero771679666304]

The 2007 Cubs won't be an OBP machine, but will almost certainly be stronger in that department in recent years.

 

That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good.

 

I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP.

 

Soriano is a career .325

DeRosa is a career .331

 

Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship.

 

And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano.

 

The Cubs will score a lot more runs in 2007 than they did in 2006.

 

 

-Pierre was horrid in the first part of last season

-Cedeno and Neifi comprised the middle infield for most of the season

-Lee missed nearly the entire season

-Ramirez slumped badly in the first half

-Barrett missed a lot of time

 

 

Look at some of the OBPs that spent significant time in the lineup last year:

 

Cedeno - .271

Perez - .260

Mabry - .283

Bynum - .308

Pierre - .330 (.289 in April, .267 in May)

Blanco - .304

 

Only Blanco will be back, and figures to spend less tim in the everyday lineup. Izturis is bad too, but the Cubs OBP will not be nearly as bad next season, barring major injury.

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

As of right now, the lineup would be this:

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

 

 

That is a much better offense. Lets say some of the rumored acquisitions take place:

 

Soriano

Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton/Floyd

DeRosa

Izturis

 

Also a much better offense. Either would be good for at least another 100 total runs over the 2006 version.

.

 

While I don't disagree with you, you should put a first baseman of some sort in the 2006 lineup.

 

Oops. I guess we got so little production from 1B I forgot to add our three headed monster of Mabry/Nevin/Walker.

[cheapseats]

 

He was pitched around more than in previous seasons as well...I think his OBP will be better than his career mark, but not as good as his 2006 mark.

 

Yep, I think you're right. IIRC, he had more IBB last year than in his previous years combined.

[goonys evil twin]

You accussed XZero of not reading what you wrote... but you did the same thing. Where did I say the offense would be great? I said above middle of the pack in runs scored... which is what started this... I said they would score some runs. And I think XZero has done a fine job making my other points so I'll leave it at that.

 

This whole thing started when I noted that Lilly might be getting pulled for pinch hitters early, if he keeps giving up runs at the same rate, (wait here while I get the quote) "since their regular lineup, as currently constructed, isn't going to be bashing people on a regular basis".

 

You took umbrage with the notion that this offense won't be bashing people on a regular basis. That pretty much means you said the offense would be great. If you bash people on a regular basis, you're a great lineup. That's what great lineups do. I don't think they'd be great.

 

You're wrong.

[nilodnayr]

The 2007 Cubs won't be an OBP machine, but will almost certainly be stronger in that department in recent years.

 

That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good.

 

I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP.

 

Soriano is a career .325

DeRosa is a career .331

 

Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship.

 

And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano.

 

I did the analysis about a month and many threads ago, but the cubs 2006 firstbasemen actually were quite patient thanks to Walker and Lee. The improvement with a full year of lee was nominal.

[Omar]

What are Lilly's numbers against non-AL east teams? What about his numbers against the NL?

[jjgman21]

should we create a poll for this? Goony vs. Truffle? :D

 

What would be the question? I don't think it's crazy to predict an OBP over .340, I just think it's darn right silly to say you'd be shocked if he didn't surpass .340.

 

so that's silly to you, but saying 'the Cubs have had the worst offense in the league' isn't silly, and pointing out your blatant factualy error is a proper basis for the rant you went on?

[jjgman21]

The 2007 Cubs won't be an OBP machine, but will almost certainly be stronger in that department in recent years.

 

That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good.

 

I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP.

 

Soriano is a career .325

DeRosa is a career .331

 

Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship.

 

And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano.

 

I did the analysis about a month and many threads ago, but the cubs 2006 firstbasemen actually were quite patient thanks to Walker and Lee. The improvement with a full year of lee was nominal.

 

Cubs 2006 first basemen ave/obp = .266/.337. I think we can count on a full year of Lee leading to improvement that is a little better than "nominal."

 

NY - 2006 Cubs leadoff hitters obp = .329. second hole = .319. I think we can expect some improvement there.

 

XZero - if what you say is true, that Soriano was pitched around thus leading to the walks, are we expected to believe that he will not hit the pitches he sees while not being pitched around? doesn't it stand to reason that if he's not being pitched around he will see better pitches to hit and have even better power numbers?

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

 

Baker never used the lineup shown above, not even once.

 

The players with the most starts by lineup order were as follows.......

 

1. Pierre (159)

2. Walker (32), Theriot (29), Cedeno (26), Perez (20)

3. Ramirez (52), Walker (35), Barrett (34), Lee (33)

4. Ramirez (72), Nevin (21), Jones (19), Barrett (15), Murton (14)

5. Jones (57), Murton (28), Ramirez (23), Barrett (22)

6. Jones (38), Murton (28), Mabry (24), Barrett (18)

7. Murton (45), Cedeno (22), Jones (22), Blanco (20)

8. Cedeno (85), Blanco (30), Perez (21)

9. pitchers (153), Blanco (6), Hairston (2), Perez (1)

[jjgman21]

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

 

 

Baker never used the lineup shown above, not even once.

 

The players with the most starts by lineup order were as follows.......

 

1. Pierre (159)

2. Walker (32), Theriot (29), Cedeno (26), Perez (20)

3. Ramirez (52), Walker (35), Barrett (34), Lee (33)

4. Ramirez (72), Nevin (21), Jones (19), Barrett (15), Murton (14)

5. Jones (57), Murton (28), Ramirez (23), Barrett (22)

6. Jones (38), Murton (28), Mabry (24), Barrett (18)

7. Murton (45), Cedeno (22), Jones (22), Blanco (20)

8. Cedeno (85), Blanco (30), Perez (21)

9. pitchers (153), Blanco (6), Hairston (2), Perez (1)

 

could that be because you need more than eight players to assemble a lineup?

[Guest]

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

 

Baker never used the lineup shown above, not even once.

 

The players with the most starts by lineup order were as follows.......

 

1. Pierre (159)

2. Walker (32), Theriot (29), Cedeno (26), Perez (20)

3. Ramirez (52), Walker (35), Barrett (34), Lee (33)

4. Ramirez (72), Nevin (21), Jones (19), Barrett (15), Murton (14)

5. Jones (57), Murton (28), Ramirez (23), Barrett (22)

6. Jones (38), Murton (28), Mabry (24), Barrett (18)

7. Murton (45), Cedeno (22), Jones (22), Blanco (20)

8. Cedeno (85), Blanco (30), Perez (21)

9. pitchers (153), Blanco (6), Hairston (2), Perez (1)

I love ya Fred, but didn't Pierre start all 162 last year and lead them all off?

[Andy]

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

 

Baker never used the lineup shown above, not even once.

 

The players with the most starts by lineup order were as follows.......

 

1. Pierre (159)

2. Walker (32), Theriot (29), Cedeno (26), Perez (20)

3. Ramirez (52), Walker (35), Barrett (34), Lee (33)

4. Ramirez (72), Nevin (21), Jones (19), Barrett (15), Murton (14)

5. Jones (57), Murton (28), Ramirez (23), Barrett (22)

6. Jones (38), Murton (28), Mabry (24), Barrett (18)

7. Murton (45), Cedeno (22), Jones (22), Blanco (20)

8. Cedeno (85), Blanco (30), Perez (21)

9. pitchers (153), Blanco (6), Hairston (2), Perez (1)

I love ya Fred, but didn't Pierre start all 162 last year and lead them all off?

Dusty put him 2nd in three games to try and jump-start him. Didn't work.

[baseball7897]

 

For most of last season, the lineup looked something like this:

 

Pierre

Perez

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

Pitcher

 

 

Baker never used the lineup shown above, not even once.

 

The players with the most starts by lineup order were as follows.......

 

1. Pierre (159)

2. Walker (32), Theriot (29), Cedeno (26), Perez (20)

3. Ramirez (52), Walker (35), Barrett (34), Lee (33)

4. Ramirez (72), Nevin (21), Jones (19), Barrett (15), Murton (14)

5. Jones (57), Murton (28), Ramirez (23), Barrett (22)

6. Jones (38), Murton (28), Mabry (24), Barrett (18)

7. Murton (45), Cedeno (22), Jones (22), Blanco (20)

8. Cedeno (85), Blanco (30), Perez (21)

9. pitchers (153), Blanco (6), Hairston (2), Perez (1)

I love ya Fred, but didn't Pierre start all 162 last year and lead them all off?

Dusty put him 2nd in three games to try and jump-start him. Didn't work.

 

Nothing worked out well for the Cubs this year.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Dusty put him 2nd in three games to try and jump-start him. Didn't work.

 

Cedeno lead off for 2 games on 10 & 11 May (games # 33 & 34) out in SF. (Womack lead off the other game in early June). You could make the argument that this attempt to "jump start" Pierre did work.......

 

Pierre             AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/03 - 05/09     130   18   30    5    2    0   39    2    7   12  0.231  0.275  0.300  0.575
05/12 - 10/01     561   70  172   27   11    3  230   35   25   25  0.307  0.342  0.410  0.752

 

.... but the fact is, he really didn't starting hitting until the following week against the white sox.