Winter Meetings Thread (Merged)

[RichHillIsABeast]

BTW - I don't think it is the $15M that is scaring the Cubs away from Schmidt. I think it is the idea of a 4 yr contract to him that is causing them to consider other options.

 

So why didn't 8 for Soriano get same reaction? If we do it for Soriano please do it for Schmidt.

 

Soriano takes great care of his body and guys with his skillset age well. If Schmidt manages to stay healthy in the next 3-4 years it will be a miracle. I don't think he'll age well at all.

 

It's not as hard on your body to play in the OF 140+ games as it is to pitch 180+ innings a year.

[Guest]

BTW - I don't think it is the $15M that is scaring the Cubs away from Schmidt. I think it is the idea of a 4 yr contract to him that is causing them to consider other options.

 

If they are considering selling the team anyway, what does another year on Schmidt's contract matter?

 

Lilly at 4 years is a bigger gamble than Schmidt at 4 years, IMO.

 

And teams can move a guy they wish to part with. The Yankees moved Javier Vazquez. They can probably even move Pavano this offseason.

 

Just do it. Sign Schmidt!

Refresh my memory...were the Yanks able to move Kevin Brown when he broke down?

 

Again, I'm not in favor of Lilly. And I'd think seriously about Schmidt.

[BigbadB]

BTW - I don't think it is the $15M that is scaring the Cubs away from Schmidt. I think it is the idea of a 4 yr contract to him that is causing them to consider other options.

 

If they are considering selling the team anyway, what does another year on Schmidt's contract matter?

 

Lilly at 4 years is a bigger gamble than Schmidt at 4 years, IMO.

 

And teams can move a guy they wish to part with. The Yankees moved Javier Vazquez. They can probably even move Pavano this offseason.

 

Just do it. Sign Schmidt!

Refresh my memory...were the Yanks able to move Kevin Brown when he broke down?

 

Again, I'm not in favor of Lilly. And I'd think seriously about Schmidt.

 

It was the Dodgers that were able to move Kevin Brown, actually. Brown was just plain done with the Yankees, if I recall correctly. Brown was 38 when the Dodgers traded him.

[Soul]

Yukky if we only sign Lilly and then some other option like Meche.

 

Probably tons of $$$$ too. And yukky.

[tkenm356]

He's a 33 yr old pitcher with a history of injuries, and we are a franchise with long history of injured picthers.

 

Schmidt's injuries though haven't been to the effect of our own pitchers histories. He's never started less than 29 games and never more than 32 over the last 5 years, so he's averaged 30.2 starts a year over that span.

 

I can live with that, where do I sign up?

[killthegoat06]

If our starters turn out like this:

 

Z

Hill

Lilly

Jennings

Prior/Miller

 

 

Soriano

Lugo/Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

Would it be a horrible problem or would we have a decent chance at contending?

[Vinestal]

BTW - I don't think it is the $15M that is scaring the Cubs away from Schmidt. I think it is the idea of a 4 yr contract to him that is causing them to consider other options.

 

So why didn't 8 for Soriano get same reaction? If we do it for Soriano please do it for Schmidt.

 

Because pitchers are a great deal more fragile than hitters.

[BigbadB]

Colorado was able to move Hampton. The list goes on of bad contract pitchers (and it's not even a safe argument that Schmidt would be a bad contract for year 4 at this point) that were moved.

 

But, if a team can throw 8 years at a position player, why can't they throw 4 years at the premium free agent starter on the market?

[rawaction]

If our starters turn out like this:

 

Z

Hill

Lilly

Jennings

Prior/Miller

 

 

Soriano

Lugo/Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

Would it be a horrible problem or would we have a decent chance at contending?

 

I think they would contend, but I don't think you can go into the playoffs with that team and realistically think they could win it all. Of course, you could have said the same thing about the Cards this past season, and that Cubs team is better "on paper" than the 06 Cards.

[Soul]

If our starters turn out like this:

 

Z

Hill

Lilly

Jennings

Prior/Miller

 

 

Soriano

Lugo/Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

Would it be a horrible problem or would we have a decent chance at contending?

 

IMO it's unfair to make Hill pitch out of the #2 spot. You'd probably have to try Jennings there in that scenario.

 

It's not a particularly strong rotation.

[CubinNY]

BTW - I don't think it is the $15M that is scaring the Cubs away from Schmidt. I think it is the idea of a 4 yr contract to him that is causing them to consider other options.

 

So why didn't 8 for Soriano get same reaction? If we do it for Soriano please do it for Schmidt.

 

He's a 33 yr old pitcher with a history of injuries, and we are a franchise with long history of injured picthers.

 

Since 1997 Schmidt has made 25 or more starts in every season except 2000.

 

He's been pretty durable.

 

I agree with Tim. I don't think the Cubs want a 37 year old pitcher making 10 to 15 million dollars.

 

If I were the Cubs and I really thought he'd be a difference maker I'd agree to take the money he'd make in the fourth year and amaterize it into a 3 year contract.

 

More money, less years.

Edited December 4, 2006 by CubinNY

[cheapseats]

Is Nixon really much better than pagan?

 

Yes.

[CubColtPacer]

If our starters turn out like this:

 

Z

Hill

Lilly

Jennings

Prior/Miller

 

 

Soriano

Lugo/Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

Would it be a horrible problem or would we have a decent chance at contending?

 

I think they would contend, but I don't think you can go into the playoffs with that team and realistically think they could win it all. Of course, you could have said the same thing about the Cards this past season, and that Cubs team is better "on paper" than the 06 Cards.

 

I would agree with that-I think that team is the best team at the division at this point although not by that much, and would be one of the lesser teams in the playoffs-they would have to get hot late.

[ThePenguin11]

I think that Lilly is a great move if it's complemented by another signing of a starter equal to or better than Lilly. i.e. if we sign Lilly and follow it up with Marquis or Meche, I won't feel great about it. If we get Schmidt, Zito (unrealistic, I know) or someone like Padilla, then I think Hendry will have done a good job.

 

Looking at Lilly's stats and splits, I think that he'll benefit by moving to the NL and at the very least that will cancel out his possible trevails of moving to Wrigley (which is a coin-toss as to whether it is a hitter's park or a pitcher's park from year to year). Personally, I think that it's right in the middle of being either. Wrigley's stats are going to be up if the Cubs have bashers and a crappy pitching staff and down if they can't hit and get decent pitching. In my eyes, it pretty much averages out.

 

Anyway, to me, a move to the NL away from the likes of the AL east's bashers, Lilly fare a lot better. TB has had an underrated offensive team for two years even though they're not HR heavy, the Red Sox and the Yankees are bashers, and the Orioles are decent offensively.

 

Like I said, if Lilly is complemented by an equal or better SP move, I think it's a great move at 4 years $36M-ish.

[TheDude]

If we are going to sign Lily and one of Meche/ Marquis/ Schmidt (please), who are we trading Jacque for?

 

I don't know, but if the Cubs trade JJ they will need to get a slugger or a high OBP guy for SS or CF.

 

The angle I'm seeing is that they'll trade Jones for some pitching, then turnaround and sign Lofton and Trot Nixon (Mr. Miles' pick). Soriano will play RF, Lofton in CF and Nixon and Murton platoon in LF.

 

That would be a terrible, terrible offensive team.

 

No it wouldn't. No lineup that features Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano is "terrible". It may not be number 1 in the NL, but it would be a far, far cry from terrible.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm quoting Jayson Stark again, because it pisses me off!

 

Reports that the Cubs are making serious runs at Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito appear to be vastly overblown. Zito is barely on their radar screen. And Schmidt's price tag ($15 million a year for three to five years) has them looking for less expensive options -- with a list topped by Ted Lilly and Gil Meche.

 

Schmidt should be signed. The value of a Zambrano-Schmidt top of the rotation would allow us to use a combination of Marshall/Marmol/Mateo/Guzman at the bottom of the rotation.

[Vinestal]

If our starters turn out like this:

 

Z

Hill

Lilly

Jennings

Prior/Miller

 

 

Soriano

Lugo/Lofton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

DeRosa

Izturis

 

 

Would it be a horrible problem or would we have a decent chance at contending?

 

I think they would contend, but I don't think you can go into the playoffs with that team and realistically think they could win it all. Of course, you could have said the same thing about the Cards this past season, and that Cubs team is better "on paper" than the 06 Cards.

 

I would agree with that-I think that team is the best team at the division at this point although not by that much, and would be one of the lesser teams in the playoffs-they would have to get hot late.

 

The playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot. All kinds of things can happen during the course of the season to make the team stronger or weaker. Players you think are going to be weak having career years, and players you thought were going to be great having aweful years. Then there is possible trades before the trading deadline, and there is always the possiblilty that some of our minor league kids come up huge. That lineup would be acceptable to me going into the year, cause I think Lugo becomes the everyday SS sooner rather than later and I think Murton puts up better power numbers than last year. Also I think DeRosa puts up similar numbers to last year at 2b.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok, this one from Crasnick is just funny....

 

The agent also said that Barry Bonds would much rather stay in San Francisco than sign with Oakland. "He doesn't want to drive across the Bay, he doesn't want to play in a dilapidated stadium, and he doesn't want to wear the white shoes," the agent said.

[C.C.]

Ok, this one from Crasnick is just funny....

 

The agent also said that Barry Bonds would much rather stay in San Francisco than sign with Oakland. "He doesn't want to drive across the Bay, he doesn't want to play in a dilapidated stadium, and he doesn't want to wear the white shoes," the agent said.

 

I just read that and it looks like something "The Onion" would write. funny stuff!

[goonys evil twin]

The playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot. All kinds of things can happen during the course of the season to make the team stronger or weaker. Players you think are going to be weak having career years, and players you thought were going to be great having aweful years. Then there is possible trades before the trading deadline, and there is always the possiblilty that some of our minor league kids come up huge. That lineup would be acceptable to me going into the year, cause I think Lugo becomes the everyday SS sooner rather than later and I think Murton puts up better power numbers than last year. Also I think DeRosa puts up similar numbers to last year at 2b.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot and lesser teams can win, but that does not make it okay to go into the season as a weaker team than the competition, especially not the lesser paid competition. Being a bit better than the rest of the division on paper does not guarantee a title. They need to construct a team that is good enough to not just win a weak NL Central, but to withstand a surprise surge from a potentially lucky team.

[PrimeTime]

Ok, this one from Crasnick is just funny....

 

The agent also said that Barry Bonds would much rather stay in San Francisco than sign with Oakland. "He doesn't want to drive across the Bay, he doesn't want to play in a dilapidated stadium, and he doesn't want to wear the white shoes," the agent said.

 

Once again its Barry being racist...It cant be white shoes..They have to be black for Barry

[Outshined_One]

I don't care for money as much as years unless one of these big money deals somehow precludes us from getting a big name star in the future. However, that is not the case this offseason, as the Cubs already scooped up the top FA (!) for the first time in what seems like forever.

 

Lilly for four years and $9m per year sounds like a decent deal. I worry a bit about his age (31) and whether or not he'll be able to keep his ERA+ around his career level of 99. Perhaps the move to the NL will be a boon and he'll be able to stay healthy, but we'll see. I wanted a reliable innings eating starter and I think Lilly will fit the bill.

 

The Orioles have some decent prospects (I like Nolan Reimold's upside), but I'm scratching my head over what good trading Jock would do this team for some one like Rodrigo Lopez. The Cubs have a glut of relievers and really do not need to add any more at this point. Moreover, as promising as guys like Loewen, Penn, and Bedard are, I can't see the Orioles parting with them.

[CubinNY]

On XM radio from the Winter Meetings, Tom Verducci is ripping the Slappy signing. Ripping it to shreds. Everything we've all said.

[Vinestal]

The playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot. All kinds of things can happen during the course of the season to make the team stronger or weaker. Players you think are going to be weak having career years, and players you thought were going to be great having aweful years. Then there is possible trades before the trading deadline, and there is always the possiblilty that some of our minor league kids come up huge. That lineup would be acceptable to me going into the year, cause I think Lugo becomes the everyday SS sooner rather than later and I think Murton puts up better power numbers than last year. Also I think DeRosa puts up similar numbers to last year at 2b.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot and lesser teams can win, but that does not make it okay to go into the season as a weaker team than the competition, especially not the lesser paid competition. Being a bit better than the rest of the division on paper does not guarantee a title. They need to construct a team that is good enough to not just win a weak NL Central, but to withstand a surprise surge from a potentially lucky team.

 

Im not sure how much better we could get than that, I dont think Schimdt wants to be in Chicago or at least not at a price/length of contract, that would be acceptable and I dont think that Zito is the answer. I dont think Lilly is any worse than the other availible options on the freeagent market (other than Schimdt or Zito). Im not sure how you would upgrade the everyday lineup any better without a huge trade and we dont have the prospects to deal. I just dont see to many ways to improve upon that lineup.

 

**edit**

I do think that the ofense is better with JJ playing CF and Lugo playing SS than with Lugo in CF and Izturis at SS, but sadly Jim loves Izy

[goonys evil twin]

The playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot. All kinds of things can happen during the course of the season to make the team stronger or weaker. Players you think are going to be weak having career years, and players you thought were going to be great having aweful years. Then there is possible trades before the trading deadline, and there is always the possiblilty that some of our minor league kids come up huge. That lineup would be acceptable to me going into the year, cause I think Lugo becomes the everyday SS sooner rather than later and I think Murton puts up better power numbers than last year. Also I think DeRosa puts up similar numbers to last year at 2b.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot and lesser teams can win, but that does not make it okay to go into the season as a weaker team than the competition, especially not the lesser paid competition. Being a bit better than the rest of the division on paper does not guarantee a title. They need to construct a team that is good enough to not just win a weak NL Central, but to withstand a surprise surge from a potentially lucky team.

 

Im not sure how much better we could get than that, I dont think Schimdt wants to be in Chicago or at least not at a price/length of contract, that would be acceptable and I dont think that Zito is the answer. I dont think Lilly is any worse than the other availible options on the freeagent market (other than Schimdt or Zito). Im not sure how you would upgrade the everyday lineup any better without a huge trade and we dont have the prospects to deal. I just dont see to many ways to improve upon that lineup.

 

For one, you could keep Jones, who is better than either CF option listed in that lineup. Two, we do have prospects to deal. Jim just doesn't seem interested. The Cubs farm system is far from great. But teams with lesser systems have made trades from their farms before.