Rich Hill & '07 Projections -Bill James Handbook (Merged

[Laura]

John Dewan publishes the Stat-of-the-Week online. This week's is the projected 2007 MLB leaderboard from the Bill James Handbook 2007.

 

Who's projected to lead the NL in strikeouts with 241?

 

Rich Hill

:D

 

I just ordered the handbook and haven't received it yet.

Edited December 12, 2006 by Laura

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Read some of it last time I went to the bookstore, appearantly he really likes Hill.

 

Really wish I remembered more of what I read.

[WrigleyField 22]

John Dewan publishes the Stat-of-the-Week online. This week's is the projected 2007 MLB leaderboard from the Bill James Handbook 2007.

 

Who's projected to lead the NL in strikeouts with 241?

 

Rich Hill

:D

 

I just ordered the handbook and haven't received it yet.

 

with a 3.40 ERA to boot

 

 

 

and darn, Pierre is gonna steal 49 bases. wtg Hendry

[RyCubsFan]

Wow, he really does love Hill. He projects Hill to have better numbers than Zambrano though. I think we'll see big Z on some of those leader boards. I also think we'll see DLee on the leader boards as well. Where's the love for Lee??

[abuck1220]

that's the second time hill has been projected by someone other than me ( :D ) to put up a cy young caliber season in '07. good stuff.

[Northsider]

Last I checked, Rich Hill was putting up some really amazing numbers in his minor league career. Also, the only thing that seemed to be holding him back in the majors was some psychological issue that he seems to have gotten over. I won't be too surprised to see Rich Hill have a killer year next year, and surpass Z. I'll also say that I expect him to have 250 K if he has 200 IP.

[Shilzzz]

John Dewan publishes the Stat-of-the-Week online. This week's is the projected 2007 MLB leaderboard from the Bill James Handbook 2007.

 

Who's projected to lead the NL in strikeouts with 241?

 

Rich Hill

:D

 

I just ordered the handbook and haven't received it yet.

:shock:

 

whoa. i have been on a crusade for people to stop putting him in the three slot for next year, but damn...

 

that would be some tasty crow.

[Warpticon]

Last I checked, Rich Hill was putting up some really amazing numbers in his minor league career. Also, the only thing that seemed to be holding him back in the majors was some psychological issue that he seems to have gotten over. I won't be too surprised to see Rich Hill have a killer year next year, and surpass Z. I'll also say that I expect him to have 250 K if he has 200 IP.

 

I'd say that's going too far. I'd expect 8-9 k per 9 innings out of him at best, probably somewhere closer to 7.5. Which is fine, since he's gone from walking everybody early in his career to walking virtually nobody.

[UMFan83]

I honestly can't wait to see how Rich Hill does next year. Probably the thing I'm looking forward to most next year.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Oh, dear Jebus. If Hill puts up anywhere near those numbers, everyone else better be healthy too. I'd hate to see him do that with Zambrano, Westbrook, and Schmidt all on the DL with Prior for most of the year.

[MPrior]

Dammit! It's this kind of thing which is going to get my hopes up! Stop it! I've been trying this whole time to pretend like I don't expect Hill to do well, so that I can be pleasantly surprised when he does. But secretly, I do think he can absolutely dominant as early as next year.

[A New Era]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

[Rob]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

[Mephistopheles]

his projection system (at least offensively) is .800 OPS for everyone!

 

I think he projected like a .850 ops from Pie last season. In the majors.

[Warpticon]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

[apete6]

If Rich Hill receives any Cy Young votes, the Cubs will be in the playoffs.

 

 

It's not going to happen. He might do something like the following, and I will be totally OK with it.

 

14-10

4.10 ERA

210 Innings

190Ks

 

That will satisfy me, but not give me a RichHillIsABeast man-love chubby.

[abuck1220]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

 

you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL.

[Soriano12]

Tejada is barely and upgrade over Cedeno, .846 OPS vs. .800 for Cedeno. Making the margin between Tejada-Cedeno less than the margin between saayyy Prior-Rusch.

[Elrhino]

Is it too much to ask that Prior stay healthy too?

 

Yeah, I suppose it is.

[NewUserName]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

 

you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL.

 

 

Bill James did predict the 84 Cubs to win their division.

 

I dont think that James gift is in predicting how players will play. He is really good at pointing out overrated aspects of some players and underrated aspects of others in a interesting form

[Flames24Rulz]

his projection system (at least offensively) is .800 OPS for everyone!

 

I think he projected like a .850 ops from Pie last season. In the majors.

 

Yeah he had some pretty eye-popping stats for Pie last year.

 

I think his predictions are pretty good for the most part. Definitely one of the better statisticians in baseball.

[JGalt73]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

 

you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL.

 

I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24.

[cheapseats]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

 

you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL.

 

I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24.

 

It's ZIPS that has projected good things for Hill in 2007.

 

New PECOTA projections probably won't be out for a few months. I'll be interested to see what it predicts for 07.

[Rob]

Has this guy been right alot in the past?

 

I'll say one thing, I like Rich Hill. And he DID look dominating for several starts in a row last year. YOU ALL SAW IT too.

 

Bill James?

 

The father of modern sabermetrics?

 

I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal.

 

I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

 

If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well.

 

you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL.

 

I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24.

 

It's ZIPS that has projected good things for Hill in 2007.

 

New PECOTA projections probably won't be out for a few months. I'll be interested to see what it predicts for 07.

 

Cliff's notes:

 

Decline for Soriano

Decline for DeRosa

Decline for Blanco

Decline for Barrett

 

Improvement for Lee

Improvement for Prior

Improvement for Hill (3/4 of the value he produced at the end of the year over 200 innings.)

[nilodnayr]

 

Cliff's notes:

 

Decline for Soriano

Decline for DeRosa

Decline for Blanco

Decline for Barrett

 

Improvement for Lee

Improvement for Prior

Improvement for Hill (3/4 of the value he produced at the end of the year over 200 innings.)

 

He's been doing complicated statistical baseball analysis for longer than I've been alive and I could have told you that!