Still not happy that Baker was let go.

[SouthSideRyan]

People are using Murton's 2nd half stats as a possible sign of what's to come because he's 24 and in his (I believe) 4th season of professional baseball. Further development and adjustment is usual at that point. Juan Pierre was 28 and in his 8th season of professional ball(7th major league) Further development and adjustment at that level is unlikely.

[goonys evil twin]

People are using Murton's 2nd half stats as a possible sign of what's to come because he's 24 and in his (I believe) 4th season of professional baseball. Further development and adjustment is usual at that point. Juan Pierre was 28 and in his 8th season of professional ball(7th major league) Further development and adjustment at that level is unlikely.

 

He turned 29 during his second half revival.

 

 

He's established who he is over the course of his career, as you state. He had an OPS+ of 81 this year, compared to his career average of 86, and 2005 of 84. He peaked at 26, like most players, with a 107. There's a chance some time in the next 3-4 years he will get back to that level for one season, but it's not a safe bet that he will in any particular year. On the list of most similar players, the most prominent name is Willie Wilson.

 

Murton was at 103 this year, 111 for his career. The list of most similar players at this age are Kirk Gibson and Bobby Abreu.

[wastra]

Juan Pierre does NOTHING particularly well. NOTHING.

 

 

He's fast, but he's not a particularly good baserunner. He makes contact, but he's not a particularly good hitter. He's quick, but doesn't cover a particularly large amount of ground in center. He's a proto-typical Hendry guy...an athlete who isn't really all that good at baseball.

 

 

 

And if I have to read that he's valuable for leading the league in hits again, I'll puke. Maybe some people just don't understand what sabremetric stats MEAN, and that's why these gross stats get so much play on message boards. Let me put this in gross terms you don't have to read a Bill James book to understand (though I highly recommend it to all baseball fans):

 

He hit .290, not .340. Then man had 799 at bats. That's almost EIGHT HUNDRED. He reached base 234 times this year in roughly 834 plate appearances. The AVERAGE major league hitter (including PITCHERS, for goodness' sake) would have reached base 230 times in that many apearances.

 

If you took out pitchers and pinch hitters, how "average" would that be? If you took pitchers out of calculatign the average hitter in the NL, don't you think the "average" would make it on base 4 more times than with them included? And since he has less power than half the pitchers, the averag ehitter would have had a whole lot more total bases (more doubles, triples, homers), makign those times reaching base more productive.

 

Juan Pierre is a mediocre-at-best player who got far more opportunities at the plate than anyone else of his caliber. It's just that simple.

 

As for Dusty- he certainly didn't get a roster ready to conted for the NL crown, but I'm pretty darn sure the roster shouldn't have been as bad as it was this year, even with the injuries. Having a abd roster doesn't excuse Dusty for manglign that bad roster in total defiance of an sort of baseball common sense.

 

Without going into the rest of the post (which I agree with the spirit of, if not the intensity), Pierre had 699 AB's this year, not 799.

 

 

Nice catch- sorry I did indeed mean 699, not 799. The numbers were all run on 699, so it doesn't change the gist of my argument, just the gross number cited.

[wastra]

Juan Pierre does NOTHING particularly well. NOTHING.

 

 

He's fast, but he's not a particularly good baserunner. He makes contact, but he's not a particularly good hitter. He's quick, but doesn't cover a particularly large amount of ground in center. He's a proto-typical Hendry guy...an athlete who isn't really all that good at baseball.

 

 

 

And if I have to read that he's valuable for leading the league in hits again, I'll puke. Maybe some people just don't understand what sabremetric stats MEAN, and that's why these gross stats get so much play on message boards. Let me put this in gross terms you don't have to read a Bill James book to understand (though I highly recommend it to all baseball fans):

 

He hit .290, not .340. Then man had 799 at bats. That's almost EIGHT HUNDRED. He reached base 234 times this year in roughly 834 plate appearances. The AVERAGE major league hitter (including PITCHERS, for goodness' sake) would have reached base 230 times in that many apearances.

 

If you took out pitchers and pinch hitters, how "average" would that be? If you took pitchers out of calculatign the average hitter in the NL, don't you think the "average" would make it on base 4 more times than with them included? And since he has less power than half the pitchers, the averag ehitter would have had a whole lot more total bases (more doubles, triples, homers), makign those times reaching base more productive.

 

Juan Pierre is a mediocre-at-best player who got far more opportunities at the plate than anyone else of his caliber. It's just that simple.

 

As for Dusty- he certainly didn't get a roster ready to conted for the NL crown, but I'm pretty darn sure the roster shouldn't have been as bad as it was this year, even with the injuries. Having a abd roster doesn't excuse Dusty for manglign that bad roster in total defiance of an sort of baseball common sense.

 

 

Wastra, I respect your opinion and I used to love reading your posts even back in the ESPN message board days, but better check your numbers again. Considering the real stats, It is ridiculous to say that average major league pitchers would have a .330 OBP over the course of 700 at bats. It just isn't realistic.

 

Pierre is not a great CF, but he has still put up a respectable career OBP of .350, he still has decent speed and he can still steal bases. The problem with your argument is that you are only acknowledging the negatives and spinning them by making his numbers worse than they actually are. I'm pretty sure that sabrmeterics do not MEAN that. :wink:

 

What I find funny is that the same people that will take Murton's second half numbers and use them to make the case that he is better/equal to Carlos Lee, will completely discount Pierre's numbers since June. Especially considering Pierre's career OBP was much higher than he was playing earlier in the season. If Pierre could revert back to his career OBP or sustain his sucess that he had from June through October, he would have some value to some team. Heck, he would even be a viable leadoff candidate.

 

I did not say pitchers averaged a .330 OBP, said that teh ML average OBP INCLUDES pitchers in the NL, so if you take them out, Pierre actually fares worse against the ML average.

 

What positives do you want to highlight? He doesn't hit for a particularly high average, he doesn't have power, he doesn't get on base, he doesn't field particularly well, and he doesn't steal bases all that successfully. He's average-to-worse at almost everything. What he DID do is pile up distorted gross numbers due to NOT taking walks and swinging at everything over 730+ plate appearances. Yes, he has good foot speed, but as Goony poitned out, he isn't real good at using it. Yes, he's tough to strike out, but as I've shown, that does not translate into particularly high ability to get on base as opposed to making an out.

 

 

What really is his strength that needs highlighting?

[Pinktermite]

Maybe the gist here is that if the price was fair, say 3 years 21 million, that it would be worth taking Juan back.

 

What WAS Juan's OBP and numbers after June 1? Just curious...

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Maybe the gist here is that if the price was fair, say 3 years 21 million, that it would be worth taking Juan back.

 

What WAS Juan's OBP and numbers after June 1? Just curious...

 

3/16 would be as high as I'd be willing to go with Juan, and with Pie on the way, I really don't want to go three years. I'd just offer him arbitration and take the picks that come with him. Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton offer the same skills as Pierre for fewer years and less money.

[soccer10k]

Maybe the gist here is that if the price was fair, say 3 years 21 million, that it would be worth taking Juan back.

 

What WAS Juan's OBP and numbers after June 1? Just curious...

 

3/16 would be as high as I'd be willing to go with Juan, and with Pie on the way, I really don't want to go three years. I'd just offer him arbitration and take the picks that come with him. Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton offer the same skills as Pierre for fewer years and less money.

 

I would offer two years at the most to Pierre but would probably just offer him arbitration.

[Pinktermite]

Yeah, I guess I agree with that. Now that hind sight is 20/20, it would have been smart of the Cubs to re-sign Kenny after 2003. Corey got in the way of that.

 

What's the bet? Will they re-sign Juan?

[frostwyrm]

Maybe the gist here is that if the price was fair, say 3 years 21 million, that it would be worth taking Juan back.

 

What WAS Juan's OBP and numbers after June 1? Just curious...

 

3/16 would be as high as I'd be willing to go with Juan, and with Pie on the way, I really don't want to go three years. I'd just offer him arbitration and take the picks that come with him. Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton offer the same skills as Pierre for fewer years and less money.

3/16 for Juan Pierre? I wouldn't even do 3/10.

[Pinktermite]

You guys are ruthless. I'm not a guru, who does Dave Roberts play for and is he a free agent?

[goonys evil twin]

Maybe the gist here is that if the price was fair, say 3 years 21 million, that it would be worth taking Juan back.

 

What WAS Juan's OBP and numbers after June 1? Just curious...

 

3/21 is no where close to fair. It's a horrible contract. He's a below average producer that would be getting paid significantly more than the average player. That's called inefficient use of resources, and exactly why Hendry hasn't built a consistent winner.

[BigbadB]

You guys are ruthless. I'm not a guru, who does Dave Roberts play for and is he a free agent?

 

Roberts played for the Padres in 2006. He made LESS than Neifi Perez.

 

In 129 games, Roberts got on base via hit or walk 197 times. Pierre got on base 234 times in 162 games. Roberts would have passed Pierre easily given the same plate appearances and 162 games played.

 

Why pay 6m or more for something that you can get for 3m or less? And if Roberts wasn't available, there's still a ton of other options that would be cheaper and better than Pierre at leading off.

 

I'll be happy to take the compensation when Pierre signs a long term deal with a team willing to give him one.

[Sammy Sofa]

You guys are ruthless. I'm not a guru, who does Dave Roberts play for and is he a free agent?

 

We're ruthless for wanting what's best for our favorite baseball team?

 

Nobody's saying he isn't a great guy or that he doesn't hustle or whatever other non-producing platitude we're gonna hear tossed out...he simply is not the player the Cubs need in any capacity at this point, ESPECIALLY with how much money he can potentially command.

[badger1679666666]

Is Sweet Swinging Billy actually Edward K.?

[SeldomSeen]

Is Sweet Swinging Billy actually Edward K.?

Why is it so difficult to disagree without ridicule? As entertaining and informative as this place can be, it has lately become just as intolerant and unfriendly. What's up with that?

 

 

Sorry to pick on your post specifically, it's just something that I've noticed lately.

[Laura]

To echo, please keep the discussion on topic and not digress into namecalling.

 

 

On topic: I would have been happy to see Hendry go, too. I'm guessing they kept him around for some temporary stability and his two-year contract was likely a detriment. Still, Dusty did a lot of things wrong as well and I'm more than pleased to see him go.

[SeldomSeen]

I never understood the hurry to get Hendry's extension done. Why not wait until the end of the year with Baker? It's not like this year was ever full of promise or that last year's performance was worthy of an extension.

 

Had they waited on Hendry, wholesale changes could've been made and this team might have something resembling a direction for next season.

[BigbadB]

My apologies for bringing up Pierre again, but in his defense, he can't walk. Pitchers aren't afraid of him. They can groove one in on him all day long and 7 times out of 10, he's going to hit it to the 2nd baseman. On those 3 in 10 times where it gets past the 2b, Pierre has another 25% chance of running into an out attempting to steal a base.

 

Because he is not a threat with the bat and therefore will not ever be a walk machine, he is of little to no value.

[sethuel1]

I am ruthless. I'd like my top 5 payroll team to not suck.

[wastra]

This isn't about being ruthless, nice, or otherwise. It's about facing facts. The facts are that the Cubs stink, and a big reason they stink is overvaluing and overpaying guys who don't help the team win nearly as much as our management seems to think they do.

 

I'm sure Juan Pierre is a genuine nice guy, good human being, and fine teammate. I'm sure he does indeed work his *** off mroe than anyone else on the roster. If we were a team loaded to the gills with talented players, he'd be a GREAT compliment in the clubhouse batting 8th or as the 4th outfielder. Unfortunately, our management's overvaluing of mediocre players has saddled us with some contracts on several medicore players who will be very difficult to get away from, and left us with a couple of problems.

 

We need both pitching and offensive upgrades. With the emergence of Matt Murton, Jones' contract, and the inexplicably bad trade for Izturis, that only really leaves CF and 2B to upgrade. We can't carry a bunch of average or worse offensive guys like Jones, Cedeno, Bynum (please don't bring him back, Jim), Izturis, etc AND throw another contract at Pierre, that guarantees average or worse production then at up to 3 or 4 lineup spots depending on what happens at 2B. That simply cannot happen for a team with a massive payroll like the Cubs.

[kente777]

This isn't about being ruthless, nice, or otherwise. It's about facing facts. The facts are that the Cubs stink, and a big reason they stink is overvaluing and overpaying guys who don't help the team win nearly as much as our management seems to think they do.

 

I'm sure Juan Pierre is a genuine nice guy, good human being, and fine teammate. I'm sure he does indeed work his *** off mroe than anyone else on the roster. If we were a team loaded to the gills with talented players, he'd be a GREAT compliment in the clubhouse batting 8th or as the 4th outfielder. Unfortunately, our management's overvaluing of mediocre players has saddled us with some contracts on several medicore players who will be very difficult to get away from, and left us with a couple of problems.

 

We need both pitching and offensive upgrades. With the emergence of Matt Murton, Jones' contract, and the inexplicably bad trade for Izturis, that only really leaves CF and 2B to upgrade. We can't carry a bunch of average or worse offensive guys like Jones, Cedeno, Bynum (please don't bring him back, Jim), Izturis, etc AND throw another contract at Pierre, that guarantees average or worse production then at up to 3 or 4 lineup spots depending on what happens at 2B. That simply cannot happen for a team with a massive payroll like the Cubs.

 

Good words...I whole-heartedly agree!

 

Ken

[Garwilly]

Not here to add anything, just give the all time single season at bat leaders....

 

Name (age) AB Year

1. Willie Wilson (24) 705 1980

2. Ichiro Suzuki (30) 704 2004

3. Juan Samuel (23) 701 1984

4. Dave Cash (27) 699 1975

Juan Pierre (28) 699 2006

6. Matty Alou (30) 698 1969

7. Woody Jensen (28) 696 1936

Jose Reyes (22) 696 2005

Alfonso Soriano (26) 696 2002

10. Omar Moreno (26) 695 1979

Ichiro Suzuki (32) 695 2006

Maury Wills (29) 695 1962

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/AB_season.shtml

[goonys evil twin]

I never understood the hurry to get Hendry's extension done. Why not wait until the end of the year with Baker? It's not like this year was ever full of promise or that last year's performance was worthy of an extension.

 

Had they waited on Hendry, wholesale changes could've been made and this team might have something resembling a direction for next season.

 

In the wake of the MacPhail resignation, I believe it was a favor done on his part for his guy Hendry. Andy knew he was gone. There has been speculation for years now that he was headed to the big office sooner or later. So, he waits as long as possible because he doesn't want Hendry to then feel obligated to extend Baker. At the first possible moment during the season when things are looking good and it seems like an extension would be accepted by the masses, he gives him one. Then he's out the door, but his boy Hendry, the good son that he is, is financially secure even though his biggest supporter is no longer around. Had Andy left midseason without extending Hendry, he'd basically be giving Jim no chance at all to keep his job.

[Sweet Swinging Billy]

badger wrote: "Is Sweet Swinging Billy actually Edward K."?

 

--- I couldn't sleep so I thought I'd get on the Northside Board and see what was new, and low and behold, I see that badger is attacking me for a post, I submitted a couple of days ago. The reason I didn't express my feelings about Baker earlier was because when Dusty's contract was not renewed, I was undergoing Chemotherapy that week...and I really didn't feel like doing anything. As I've said before, my comments were probably based on too much emotion. The reason for this is I'm suffering from colon-cancer and Dusty Baker is a prostrate-cancer survivor, and he has taken time out from his busy schedule, to call me several times, to encourage me to hang in there and not give up. I just blows me away that he would take the time to call a peon like me.

 

I'm not familiar with the posts made by Edward K., but judging by some of the posts that you have made in the past badger, I'd say that you have shown some pretty bad judgement on baseball matters --so you have no credibility with me. This Edward K. is probably not as bad as a person, as you make him out to be. There are alot of insulting things I could say to you badger but I'm not going to stoop down to your level. All I wanted to do is get that off my chest, the way I felt about Baker, but unlike you, I'm ready to move on and focus on what the Cubs need to be successful. I've beeen a Cub fan for almost 45 years, and I've suffered enough. I want to win now!!

[goonys evil twin]

I just want to say that I'm still happy Dusty is gone. Although I'm pissed he was ever hired in the first place and pissed that Jim Hendry is still in charge of making decisions that involve the Cubs.