Dunn Talk in Cincinnati

[A New Era]

Paul Daugherty in the "Cincinnati Enquirer" called Adam Dunn "a DH playing left field" and said he "seem(s) to be in need of hammocks and soft breezes." He also said that the Reds need a closer and a legitimate outfielder.

 

Given all the chatter a couple months ago about picking up Dunn, is there still interest in picking him up in the offseason for, say, Dempster and Jones or Murton?

 

His stats from the Reds' site:

A Dunn 144G / 512AB / 94R / 123H / 21 2b / 0 3b / 40HR / 91RBI / 264TB / 102BB / 175SO / 6SB / 0CS / .371OBP / .516SLG / .240AVG

 

Why get rid of Murton who is progressing quite nicely in power and OBP and could realistically put up a .360 OBP next year and "possibly" a .370 OBP next year. And hit 10-20 HR for $450k and replace him who admitedly hits alot of HR but has about the same OBP or only slightly better than Murton. It's not a huge upgrade besides power. I'd rather upgrade positions which are really weak, like RF, CF, 2B, or SS.

 

If he's getting on base at almost the same clip or more AND hitting for a ton more power, what exactly is the argument for not wanting Dunn over Murton again? I honestly don't see a downside.

 

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

 

Dunn is very likely going to be at least a 100 point upgrade in OPS over Murton. Having Murton put up a 780-800 OPS might be more cost effective, but we'd be better off spending to get Dunn to consistently put up a 900+ OPS.

[CubColtPacer]

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

 

Dunn is very likely going to be at least a 100 point upgrade in OPS over Murton. Having Murton put up a 780-800 OPS might be more cost effective, but we'd be better off spending to get Dunn to consistently put up a 900+ OPS.

 

I wouldn't say he would be at least a 100 plus upgrade necessarily. Dunn has put up a 900 or more 2 out of the last 4 years-one of the years he didn't do that was this year. He's 89 points better than Murton this year. Murton's numbers still have room to go up, while Dunn is more likely to consistently stay around the numbers he's put up the last 3-4 seasons or so. Dunn is 26, Murton is 24. Dunn makes 7.5 million dollars this year, Murton makes 337,000. Murton plays better defense than Dunn (although Dunn is a little better than some of the mistakes we see him make on defense). Also, trading for Dunn would require more than Murton-so we have to factor in how valuable the other players we'd have to trade them would be, or how valuable those pieces would be in another trade (some of the players mentioned could be used to get Andruw Jones or possibly Tejada for example)

It still might be worth the gamble, but it's certainly not an open and shut case.

[baseball7897]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

 

I'd rather have 3 guys who K a lot if they offer more power and on base ability than the guys who put the ball in play.

 

And if you really had to choose to keep just 2 guys who struck out 100 times, I'd rather have Dunn and Lee any day of the week.

[Rob]

It'll take a heck of a lot to get Dunn, even if the Reds are unhappy with him for whatever reason. He's one of the premier offensive players in baseball today who would instantly make this offense a heck of a lot better.

 

I'd expect the Reds would at least ask for more than just Murton and Dempster. I'd expect them to ask for something like Pie, Patterson, Marshall, and Eyre at the very least in exchange for Dunn.

 

This team is built around having loads of above average but nowhere near exceptional relievers. Krivsky would probably sign a deal with the devil for chunks of our bullpen... and he'd almost certainly give up Dunn.

 

Seriously, Krivsky's reliever fetish boarders on the criminal.

[Sammy Sofa]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

 

We have a team right now that doesn't strike out a lot and who "put the ball in play."

 

It ain't working.

[Jehrico]

I'm in the camp that doesn't think Dunn is that huge of an upgrade over Murton. If I had a choice of trading Murton for Dunn, and those are the only things to consider, I take Dunn in a heartbeat. Dunn will command quite a bit on the trade market. We have several weak spots that need filling. I think trading Murton and another valuable player (like Howry?) for Dunn is taking a step backwards. We've added maybe 100 points OPS in one position that really wasn't screaming to be upgraded, and we still have all of our old weakness (plus maybe another, depending on who gets packaged with Murton). So basically, we'd be adding payroll, and we wouldn't be any better off than before.

 

IMO, you trade Murton (plus others) for Dunn if the rest of the team is pretty solid, and you're looking for that move to put you over the top. You don't trade Murton (plus others) for Dunn if you have several holes to fill.

[Guest]

I'm in the camp that doesn't think Dunn is that huge of an upgrade over Murton. If I had a choice of trading Murton for Dunn, and those are the only things to consider, I take Dunn in a heartbeat. Dunn will command quite a bit on the trade market. We have several weak spots that need filling. I think trading Murton and another valuable player (like Howry?) for Dunn is taking a step backwards. We've added maybe 100 points OPS in one position that really wasn't screaming to be upgraded, and we still have all of our old weakness (plus maybe another, depending on who gets packaged with Murton). So basically, we'd be adding payroll, and we wouldn't be any better off than before.

 

IMO, you trade Murton (plus others) for Dunn if the rest of the team is pretty solid, and you're looking for that move to put you over the top. You don't trade Murton (plus others) for Dunn if you have several holes to fill.

 

are you assusming they do nothing to fill the other holes?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

 

Dunn is very likely going to be at least a 100 point upgrade in OPS over Murton. Having Murton put up a 780-800 OPS might be more cost effective, but we'd be better off spending to get Dunn to consistently put up a 900+ OPS.

 

I wouldn't say he would be at least a 100 plus upgrade necessarily. Dunn has put up a 900 or more 2 out of the last 4 years-one of the years he didn't do that was this year. He's 89 points better than Murton this year. Murton's numbers still have room to go up, while Dunn is more likely to consistently stay around the numbers he's put up the last 3-4 seasons or so. Dunn is 26, Murton is 24. Dunn makes 7.5 million dollars this year, Murton makes 337,000. Murton plays better defense than Dunn (although Dunn is a little better than some of the mistakes we see him make on defense). Also, trading for Dunn would require more than Murton-so we have to factor in how valuable the other players we'd have to trade them would be, or how valuable those pieces would be in another trade (some of the players mentioned could be used to get Andruw Jones or possibly Tejada for example)

It still might be worth the gamble, but it's certainly not an open and shut case.

 

Why would you expect a 24-year-old Murton to improve but not a 26-year-old Dunn?

[rocket]

i haven't checked dunn's stats in awhile, and his horrible august and september have really hurt his overall stats.

 

BUY LOW BUY LOW BUY LOW

[NorthsideAvenger]

Third: Dunn, whilst he has major power that "chicks love", the fact is he is still limited offensively. It's either a HR, Walk, or strikeout. I understand a strikeout is sometimes better then putting the ball in play, but sometimes he needs to give up on trying to hit a homerun and become a more consistant hitter.

 

No, no, no, no, no, no. Just because Dunn is a Three True Outcomes hitter doesn't mean he needs to change. He is an extremely valuable POWER SOURCE of a lineup., and most likely any effort to try and change him will diminish that value.

 

Correction. Dunn is a MASHER, not a hitter. Calling Dunn a hitter is a disservice to guys who are dedicated to the craft of hitting, like Pujols/Mauer, who are legitimate hitters. Again, Dunn is a valuable POWER SOURCE, not a hitter. So, Dunn is better suited to being a DH, then continue this masquerade as a "outfielder." Cecil Fielder is more graceful in the OF then Adam Dunn.

 

 

If the Cubs didn't have Derrek Lee at 1st, then getting Dunn for 1st base would be an interesting idea, but Dunn in the OF....uh..........

NO THANK YOU.

 

Anti-web gems aside, Dunn isn't an abomination in LF. Considering LF is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, and the Cubs already have a pretty solid defense compared to an abysmal offense, that shouldn't be a deterrent to going after him.

 

True, but you also don't want to hold your breathe every time the ball goes up in the air. Dunn MOST LIKELY WON'T BE coming to Chicago, other then being a visitor.

 

Cincy MOST LIKELY are not going to trade Dunn to Chicago, so why are people still on this horse?

Edited September 19, 2006 by NorthsideAvenger

[Cubinsf]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

 

C 89K 276/375/473 J. Posada

1B 163K 315/415/674 R. Howard

2B 116K 302/372/520 C. Utley

SS 115K 288/354/459 H. Ramirez

3B 135K 289/385/522 A. Rodriguez

LF 177K 238/368/512 A. Dunn

CF 135K 289/374/532 G. Sizemore

RF 127K 296/429/452 B. Abrue

[NCCubFan]

Dunn ain't coming to Chicago, other then being a visitor.

 

Cincy ain't going to trade Dunn to Chicago, so why are people still on this horse?

That's your opinion, not fact. People are perfectly welcome to talk about it if they want.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

 

And that's pretty ridiculous. This isn't little league or high school ball for that matter. Even the most defensively challenged major leaguer makes most of the plays. When the ball is put in play, more times than not, an out is recorded.

 

The put it in play mantra is great in little league. I hate 12 year olds that strike out because with that age, 75% of the time when the ball is in play, something good does happen for the team at bat. Not so in the majors.

 

I want production. Dunn makes fewer outs than most other options for LF. When he does make an out, it's often with the K. Big deal because he is still making fewer outs. Outs are the most valuable commodity in the game. The players who make fewer outs (OBP) and make the most of their contact (SLG) are the most valuable (OPS).

[MPrior]

I hate 12 year olds.

 

Me too. Man I hate those little buggers. And you TEACH 'em. What a masochist.

 

 

 

 

 

That's okay, I teach 'em too.

[A New Era]

Dunn ain't coming to Chicago, other then being a visitor.

 

Cincy ain't going to trade Dunn to Chicago, so why are people still on this horse?

That's your opinion, not fact. People are perfectly welcome to talk about it if they want.

 

True, you can talk. But I agree with him. I do not think this trade is likely, at all.

[NCCubFan]

Dunn ain't coming to Chicago, other then being a visitor.

 

Cincy ain't going to trade Dunn to Chicago, so why are people still on this horse?

That's your opinion, not fact. People are perfectly welcome to talk about it if they want.

 

True, you can talk. But I agree with him. I do not think this trade is likely, at all.

I agree it's not likely, but he was stating it as definite rather than unlikely.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

As much as I want Dunn, I don't think its likely either. On the other hand, I don't see why there is a problem discussing why he'd be a great fit for this team.

 

I don't see getting Andruw Jones or Michael Young or Tejada as likely either, but we've had threads on all of them.

[A New Era]

As much as I want Dunn, I don't think its likely either. On the other hand, I don't see why there is a problem discussing why he'd be a great fit for this team.

 

I don't see getting Andruw Jones or Michael Young or Tejada as likely either, but we've had threads on all of them.

 

I'd rather talk about who'se likely. But ya'll are free to discuss whatever.

 

Anyone, GOOD, that is likely? :)

[Magnetic Curses]

I like Dunn, but I dont like the fact he is a liability in the field, and he K's way too much. Cubs already have a couple of guys who will strikeout over a 100 times in a season(lee and Jones). Strikeouts are wasted AB's to me. Having 3 guys in your lineup who will K is not something I would like in a lineup. Put the ball in play and make something happen.

 

the cubs are the best team in the NL at not striking out, putting the ball in play a lot hasn't helped.

 

you don't win by simply putting the ball in play, that's gutless baseball. players who are afraid to strike out have no place in this game.

[RockTheIvy]

Bottom line, IMO, Hendry needs to acquire a "star" this offseason, and someone capable of putting up 40 homers a season qualifies as a star. So whether it's Dunn, Tejada, Jones or Soriano, somebody big has to come here next year, because Hendry's job will be on the line next season. Hopefully, that whole Contract Year Performance applies to GMs too.

[CubColtPacer]

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

 

Dunn is very likely going to be at least a 100 point upgrade in OPS over Murton. Having Murton put up a 780-800 OPS might be more cost effective, but we'd be better off spending to get Dunn to consistently put up a 900+ OPS.

 

I wouldn't say he would be at least a 100 plus upgrade necessarily. Dunn has put up a 900 or more 2 out of the last 4 years-one of the years he didn't do that was this year. He's 89 points better than Murton this year. Murton's numbers still have room to go up, while Dunn is more likely to consistently stay around the numbers he's put up the last 3-4 seasons or so. Dunn is 26, Murton is 24. Dunn makes 7.5 million dollars this year, Murton makes 337,000. Murton plays better defense than Dunn (although Dunn is a little better than some of the mistakes we see him make on defense). Also, trading for Dunn would require more than Murton-so we have to factor in how valuable the other players we'd have to trade them would be, or how valuable those pieces would be in another trade (some of the players mentioned could be used to get Andruw Jones or possibly Tejada for example)

It still might be worth the gamble, but it's certainly not an open and shut case.

 

Why would you expect a 24-year-old Murton to improve but not a 26-year-old Dunn?

 

Murton is more likely to improve IMO because he's coming off his first full season. His numbers have the chance to get better as he continues to learn the major league game.

Dunn has been up for 6 seasons now. Here are his stats during that time

01 (only 244 at bats)-.262/.371/.578

02-.249/.400/.454

03-.215/.354/.465

04- .266/.388/.569

05- .247/.387/.540

06- .238/.368/.512

 

If he were 26 and had shown signs of improving steadily during his career, I would say he is more likely to keep improving. He is certainly young enough to improve, but his stats have been falling instead the last couple years (without any injury or something like that to explain it). Do I think his stats will keep falling? Not yet-I think he'll have a series of years that parallel either his 04, 05, or 06 numbers (some of each probably mixed in). Dunn definitely still has the chance to improve, but Murton just coming off his first major league season makes him far more likely to improve on this years numbers IMO.

[Backtobanks]

It'll take a heck of a lot to get Dunn, even if the Reds are unhappy with him for whatever reason. He's one of the premier offensive players in baseball today who would instantly make this offense a heck of a lot better.

 

I'd expect the Reds would at least ask for more than just Murton and Dempster. I'd expect them to ask for something like Pie, Patterson, Marshall, and Eyre at the very least in exchange for Dunn.

 

I would hope that Hendry would crack up at this proposal. The Reds have a right to ask for whomever they want in a trade, but if this is what they ask for Dunn will retire a Red. As has been stated before, Dunn gives you a K, BB, or HR with lousy defense and a .240 BA along with a high OBP. If you were talking about that Package for Cabrera it would be a different story.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The downside? $$$. How much does Dunn make? $7 mil? $10 mil? Not sure. I wouldn't be against it if Murton played elsewhere in the OF but this is the Cubs and I don't expect them to know what they have and use it effectively. It'd be likely he just flat out replaces Murton, and that is, flatout wrong.

 

Dunn is very likely going to be at least a 100 point upgrade in OPS over Murton. Having Murton put up a 780-800 OPS might be more cost effective, but we'd be better off spending to get Dunn to consistently put up a 900+ OPS.

 

I wouldn't say he would be at least a 100 plus upgrade necessarily. Dunn has put up a 900 or more 2 out of the last 4 years-one of the years he didn't do that was this year. He's 89 points better than Murton this year. Murton's numbers still have room to go up, while Dunn is more likely to consistently stay around the numbers he's put up the last 3-4 seasons or so. Dunn is 26, Murton is 24. Dunn makes 7.5 million dollars this year, Murton makes 337,000. Murton plays better defense than Dunn (although Dunn is a little better than some of the mistakes we see him make on defense). Also, trading for Dunn would require more than Murton-so we have to factor in how valuable the other players we'd have to trade them would be, or how valuable those pieces would be in another trade (some of the players mentioned could be used to get Andruw Jones or possibly Tejada for example)

It still might be worth the gamble, but it's certainly not an open and shut case.

 

Why would you expect a 24-year-old Murton to improve but not a 26-year-old Dunn?

 

Murton is more likely to improve IMO because he's coming off his first full season. His numbers have the chance to get better as he continues to learn the major league game.

Dunn has been up for 6 seasons now. Here are his stats during that time

01 (only 244 at bats)-.262/.371/.578

02-.249/.400/.454

03-.215/.354/.465

04- .266/.388/.569

05- .247/.387/.540

06- .238/.368/.512

 

If he were 26 and had shown signs of improving steadily during his career, I would say he is more likely to keep improving. He is certainly young enough to improve, but his stats have been falling instead the last couple years (without any injury or something like that to explain it). Do I think his stats will keep falling? Not yet-I think he'll have a series of years that parallel either his 04, 05, or 06 numbers (some of each probably mixed in). Dunn definitely still has the chance to improve, but Murton just coming off his first major league season makes him far more likely to improve on this years numbers IMO.

 

That's a good point, but it also fails to recognize that much of Murton's OBP is elevated by an very high BABIP. If that drops, then so would his OBP. I don't see much room for improvement in Murton's OBP for that reason.

 

The only place where Murton could markedly improve is his SLG. Unfortunately, nothing in his minor league or college performance indicates that it is likely to come anywhere close to approaching Dunn's SLG.

 

I like Murton; he's probably one of my favorite Cubs right now, but the improvement from Murton to Dunn in LF would be remarkable. If Murton could play RF, I'd like to have both in the line-up. I just doubt whether Murton could play RF, and if the choice is Dunn or Murton, that's a no-brainer.