[Outshined_One]

If the Cubs get a manager who can get Guzman regular work without overdoing it, I think taking the Santana/Liriano approach could work out for him.

[C.C.]

He's going to command about 15 million per year. No way in the world is he worth that. He's not an "elite" pitcher. Plus, he's not going to come to Chicago. It's not even worth discussing.

 

has zito been quoting as having said something along those lines?

 

No, but I don't see him wanting to come here. If you had comparable offers from the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, or the Cubs who would you choose? The only way the Cubs get Zito is to overpay greatly for him. Which won't happen.

In other words, you're expressing your opinion, but telling others it isn't worth discussing as if it were fact. It's not for you to tell others what is or is not worth discussing.

 

It not worth me discussing. You can discuss your little heart out for all I care... :wink:

 

Let me edit this so I don't come across as a a-hole. It's just that every year we sit here and dream about getting the big name FA and every year we come away with a Jaque Jones instead...

[Rob]

Not only do I think Zito wont sign here, I don't really want him here.

 

I can't see the high walk rates and flyball tendencies working out well in Wrigley; it hasn't for any of the guys already on our staff. Besides, watching the relatively healthy Hudson and Mulder break down after leaving Oakland and looking at Zito's IP counts, I worry about his ability to stay healthy.

 

Considering how similar Oswalt's and Zito's age and numbers are (after adjusting for the league)... I'd bet Zito grabs something similar to the five year, 73 million dollar contract. It may even get higher, considering the open bidding by certainly the Mets and probably one of either the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

So based on performance, health, and financial issues, I want nothing to do with Zito.

 

Schmidt is scary too.

 

But his scary is the kind of scary worth taking a risk on.

 

His arm troubles from 2005 will scare off a lot of teams, which should plummet his price on the free agent market (then again, people said that about burnett too). I can see a lot of teams offering three years and 40 million dollars. I'd be willing to go 4/50... heavily backloaded. If we can't pull off something in the weak NL Central next season, ship him off a la Carlos Delgado's heavily backloaded deal for a major league ready B+ prospect. Let some other team deal with his final breakdown.

 

I'm really not convinced Padilla is any better than any of the youngin's we've got on the staff already. Signing him would be an expensive waste.

 

And like I've mentioned before, I think we should just hand Guzman the spot, reassure him it's his, and let him pitch through the pressures. I honestly believe the way he's been manhandled this season is what's hurting him most.

 

A rotation of

 

Zambrano

Schmidt

Hill

Prior

Guzman

 

should be more than enough to keep us in most games.

 

I wouldn't even think of signing Schmidt unless we had a complete offensive overhaul though. Otherwise, he'd be just as much of a waste as Padilla.

[baseball7897]

Not only do I think Zito wont sign here, I don't really want him here.

 

I can't see the high walk rates and flyball tendencies working out well in Wrigley; it hasn't for any of the guys already on our staff. Besides, watching the relatively healthy Hudson and Mulder break down after leaving Oakland and looking at Zito's IP counts, I worry about his ability to stay healthy.

 

Considering how similar Oswalt's and Zito's age and numbers are (after adjusting for the league)... I'd bet Zito grabs something similar to the five year, 73 million dollar contract. It may even get higher, considering the open bidding by certainly the Mets and probably one of either the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

So based on performance, health, and financial issues, I want nothing to do with Zito.

 

Schmidt is scary too.

 

But his scary is the kind of scary worth taking a risk on.

 

His arm troubles from 2005 will scare off a lot of teams, which should plummet his price on the free agent market (then again, people said that about burnett too). I can see a lot of teams offering three years and 40 million dollars. I'd be willing to go 4/50... heavily backloaded. If we can't pull off something in the weak NL Central next season, ship him off a la Carlos Delgado's heavily backloaded deal for a major league ready B+ prospect. Let some other team deal with his final breakdown.

 

I'm really not convinced Padilla is any better than any of the youngin's we've got on the staff already. Signing him would be an expensive waste.

 

And like I've mentioned before, I think we should just hand Guzman the spot, reassure him it's his, and let him pitch through the pressures. I honestly believe the way he's been manhandled this season is what's hurting him most.

 

A rotation of

 

Zambrano

Schmidt

Hill

Prior

Guzman

 

should be more than enough to keep us in most games.

 

I wouldn't even think of signing Schmidt unless we had a complete offensive overhaul though. Otherwise, he'd be just as much of a waste as Padilla.

 

Performance wise Zito is pretty damn solid. Zito's career numbers show he is a ace: 101-62 1.24 WHIP .231BAA 3.54ERA, not to mention his 2002 CY award.

 

Zito has never been on the DL. So, I dont know why you would be scared of his health.

 

He is worth around 12-15 million a year. I know Hendry is a big fan of Zito. That being said, I expect Hendry to make a offer to Zito.

[JeffH]

I know Hendry is a big fan of Zito. That being said, I expect Hendry to make a offer to Zito.

 

I expect Hendry to order a plate of ziti.

[forbez18]

The Cubs are in last place in the NL CENTRAL and have one of the top 10 payrolls. This is simply just not acceptable. I dont care who the manager is and how many injuries they have, or how bad the GM is. They have talent on their team but dont know how to play baseball. The Cubs must sign a guy like ZITO he simply knows the game. He knows what he is doing.

 

They then have to dump Jones, Cedeno, Izturis, and Mabry and replace them with either prospects or sign FA or aquire sove smart veterans through a trade.

 

A rotation of:

 

Z, Hill, Padila*SP*, Prior, and who ever

 

with: Piere, Izturis, Lee, Aram, Barret, Jones, Murton, and Cedeno

 

will see the Cubs chasing last place once again next year. This would provide for very little improvement and you know the rest of the division will be better next year. The Cubs need more then one or two big names like (Zito, CLee) they need to revamp the team and until then they should not sign any big contracts and should go with the young talent and get ride of the not smart baseball players.

[JeffH]

The Cubs would be better off bringing Don Kessinger out of retirement rather than play the truly awful Ronny Cedeno.

[Rob]

Performance wise Zito is pretty damn solid. Zito's career numbers show he is a ace: 101-62 1.24 WHIP .231BAA 3.54ERA, not to mention his 2002 CY award.

 

Zito has never been on the DL. So, I dont know why you would be scared of his health.

 

He is worth around 12-15 million a year. I know Hendry is a big fan of Zito. That being said, I expect Hendry to make a offer to Zito.

 

Nowhere did I question Zito's previous showings as being lucky or anything of the sort. I just question his ability to keep it up indefinately.

 

Once again, Zito's high walk and flyball tendencies work much better in a park that doesn't increase homerun expectancy. I'd expect about a 3.70 ERA out of him as a starter throwing half his games at Wrigley. While that's certainly not bad, a big part of Z's success has been his ability to keep the ball down in such a cozy ballpark.

 

And health wise I do realize I'm probably being unneccesarily suspicious, but those Mulder and Hudson injuries scare the jeepers out of me. I don't doubt the A's would have no problem with chewing up a pitcher's arm while he's cheap and useful and then spitting him back out just as his arm starts to go. Maybe Zito would be fine this year. Maybe he'd be fine through 2009. The problem is, we'd have to sign him to a longer contract than that, and I don't feel comfortable for whatever reason.

 

And lastly, PECOTA has Zito being worth approximately 18 million total from 2007 through 2010. While those numbers certainly seem low, I'm more inclined to believe they're closer to the truth than the 70 million or so he'll actually make.

[Guest]

Daisuke!

[Rob]

Daisuke!

 

I'd love to get him, but I think we can all agree there's a 98% chance he ends up in Seattle or in pinstripes.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Daisuke!

 

I'd love to get him, but I think we can all agree there's a 98% chance he ends up in Seattle or in pinstripes.

 

I wonder if the Cubs even have any interest? I've read about the O's and Angels being interested too.

 

I'd like to see the Cusb sign Schmidt and, say, Meche.

[fromthestretch]

Daisuke!

 

I'd love to get him, but I think we can all agree there's a 98% chance he ends up in Seattle or in pinstripes.

 

I wonder if the Cubs even have any interest? I've read about the O's and Angels being interested too.

 

I'd like to see the Cusb sign Schmidt and, say, Meche.

 

I'd be curious to know why people like Meche so much. Not singling you out here, as I've seen his name mentioned quite a few times. I realize he's only 27, but his numbers aren't all that impressive. High career WHIP, high career ERA, gives up a fair amount of home runs, etc. I'd rather save the money and give one of the young pitchers a shot.

 

Looking at Meche's numbers, it's almost like we'd be hoping for a Clement-esque turnaround...bad numbers pre-Cub, good numbers as a Cub. I don't think it's all that likely.

[Magnetic Curses]

Disgruntled,

 

You are the only person, besides myself, I have seen throw out the name Padilla (though I haven't been on this board long). The way I see it, if you can get Schmidt or Zito for the number 2 - and Zito does seem like a long shot - then having Hill as a number 3 and Padilla as 4 with either Marshall or Prior filling out the rotation, we'd be in great shape. If we could get Durham at 2nd and have a lineup of - Pierre, Durham, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Izturez, that would be a very competitive team. What do people think of Padilla as the lower priced, innings guy? I am concerned that the current crop of FA pitchers may make him too expensive, though. Especially after the top 3 get taken.

I say NO to Zito because he will command too much money and IMO not worth it for a 3.5era pitcher. I would love to have Schmidt but only for a 2 year deal which is unlikely. I would like to see Lilly to be honest.

 

Z, Hill, Lilly, Guzman, Prior/Mateo/Marmol/Marshall

 

Yeah, it's not the best rotation but it might work out.

 

zito has a career 3.54 era in the AMERICAN LEAGUE. his career era+ is 129, quite worthy of whatever contract he is offered.

 

He's going to command about 15 million per year. No way in the world is he worth that. He's not an "elite" pitcher. Plus, he's not going to come to Chicago. It's not even worth discussing.

 

you know this for a fact, or are you just speculating?

 

he's 28, has 101 big league wins, a 129 era+ and not an "elite" pitcher?

 

Yes. Zito will get 15 a year. Boston will need to spend to get themselves out of the Beckett trade fiasco, and the Yankees simply don't care what they spend as long as they get the player they want.

 

It will be a massive bidding war.

 

i don't think he'll get that much, but even if he does, he's worth it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Disgruntled,

 

You are the only person, besides myself, I have seen throw out the name Padilla (though I haven't been on this board long). The way I see it, if you can get Schmidt or Zito for the number 2 - and Zito does seem like a long shot - then having Hill as a number 3 and Padilla as 4 with either Marshall or Prior filling out the rotation, we'd be in great shape. If we could get Durham at 2nd and have a lineup of - Pierre, Durham, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Izturez, that would be a very competitive team. What do people think of Padilla as the lower priced, innings guy? I am concerned that the current crop of FA pitchers may make him too expensive, though. Especially after the top 3 get taken.

I say NO to Zito because he will command too much money and IMO not worth it for a 3.5era pitcher. I would love to have Schmidt but only for a 2 year deal which is unlikely. I would like to see Lilly to be honest.

 

Z, Hill, Lilly, Guzman, Prior/Mateo/Marmol/Marshall

 

Yeah, it's not the best rotation but it might work out.

 

zito has a career 3.54 era in the AMERICAN LEAGUE. his career era+ is 129, quite worthy of whatever contract he is offered.

 

He's going to command about 15 million per year. No way in the world is he worth that. He's not an "elite" pitcher. Plus, he's not going to come to Chicago. It's not even worth discussing.

 

you know this for a fact, or are you just speculating?

 

he's 28, has 101 big league wins, a 129 era+ and not an "elite" pitcher?

 

Yes. Zito will get 15 a year. Boston will need to spend to get themselves out of the Beckett trade fiasco, and the Yankees simply don't care what they spend as long as they get the player they want.

 

It will be a massive bidding war.

 

i don't think he'll get that much, but even if he does, he's worth it.

 

I don't understand how Zito is worth even close to 15 million. The guy is having his best year in 3 years, and a big part of his value is being able to eat innings and not get hurt, yet he barely cracks the top 15 in VORP for SP. He'll be 29 early next season so he's already into his prime too. I don't see the justification for him being paid so much.

[mul21]

It's really pretty simple baseball economics. Guys tend to get paid for what they have done, not what they are going to do. Plus, it's not easy to find guys who pitch 200+ inning every year without getting hurt and having a sub 4 ERA.

 

I agree that he's not woth it, but that's just kind of the way the cookie crumbles.

[d_money]

The Young Guns: Hill has obviously proven to be a starter in 07. I'm not sold on Guzman or Marshall yet. Guzman has no movement on the fastball, seems like every hitter is making contact with too many of his pitches (fouls and hits). Is there any way this can change? Marshall - he'd be the one to trade, IMO. IMO Mateo and Marmol need to pitch in AAA and fine tune command.

 

The FA: is there a stat out there that lists ground outs vs. fly outs? If so, how do the FA's mentioned (Zito, Padilla, Schmidt, etal) compare? I want the FA pitcher who has the better ground outs vs. fly outs.

[soccer10k]

Disgruntled,

 

You are the only person, besides myself, I have seen throw out the name Padilla (though I haven't been on this board long). The way I see it, if you can get Schmidt or Zito for the number 2 - and Zito does seem like a long shot - then having Hill as a number 3 and Padilla as 4 with either Marshall or Prior filling out the rotation, we'd be in great shape. If we could get Durham at 2nd and have a lineup of - Pierre, Durham, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Izturez, that would be a very competitive team. What do people think of Padilla as the lower priced, innings guy? I am concerned that the current crop of FA pitchers may make him too expensive, though. Especially after the top 3 get taken.

I say NO to Zito because he will command too much money and IMO not worth it for a 3.5era pitcher. I would love to have Schmidt but only for a 2 year deal which is unlikely. I would like to see Lilly to be honest.

 

Z, Hill, Lilly, Guzman, Prior/Mateo/Marmol/Marshall

 

Yeah, it's not the best rotation but it might work out.

 

zito has a career 3.54 era in the AMERICAN LEAGUE. his career era+ is 129, quite worthy of whatever contract he is offered.

 

He's going to command about 15 million per year. No way in the world is he worth that. He's not an "elite" pitcher. Plus, he's not going to come to Chicago. It's not even worth discussing.

 

you know this for a fact, or are you just speculating?

 

he's 28, has 101 big league wins, a 129 era+ and not an "elite" pitcher?

 

Yes. Zito will get 15 a year. Boston will need to spend to get themselves out of the Beckett trade fiasco, and the Yankees simply don't care what they spend as long as they get the player they want.

 

It will be a massive bidding war.

 

i don't think he'll get that much, but even if he does, he's worth it.

 

I don't understand how Zito is worth even close to 15 million. The guy is having his best year in 3 years, and a big part of his value is being able to eat innings and not get hurt, yet he barely cracks the top 15 in VORP for SP. He'll be 29 early next season so he's already into his prime too. I don't see the justification for him being paid so much.

 

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

 

Yeah, I'm aware that Zito's perceived value is that high, but Sulley was saying it was justified.

[MPrior]

I agree that he's not woth it, but that's just kind of the way the cookie crumbles.

 

I think this makes a bit of sense. Zito is definitely not going to be worth the contract that he gets, but that's just the way things work - to get a pitcher like Zito, you've just got to fork it over.

 

Now, I'm not saying that the Cubs should absolutely do everything they can to sign Zito, but it's definitely worth considering, because he could anchor our rotation for several years.

[Magnetic Curses]

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

 

Yeah, I'm aware that Zito's perceived value is that high, but Sulley was saying it was justified.

 

it's justified because his kind do not become available every day, you know.

 

i don't see any other pitchers besides schmidt and mussina that we can add to our rotation that really add anything that our rookies can't.

[illiniguy]

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

 

Yeah, I'm aware that Zito's perceived value is that high, but Sulley was saying it was justified.

 

it's justified because his kind do not become available every day, you know.

 

i don't see any other pitchers besides schmidt and mussina that we can add to our rotation that really add anything that our rookies can't.

Agreed, add into that the switch to the much easier national League and i think you can see why Zito would be a huge get for us.

[Backtobanks]

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

 

Yeah, I'm aware that Zito's perceived value is that high, but Sulley was saying it was justified.

 

it's justified because his kind do not become available every day, you know.

 

i don't see any other pitchers besides schmidt and mussina that we can add to our rotation that really add anything that our rookies can't.

Agreed, add into that the switch to the much easier national League and i think you can see why Zito would be a huge get for us.

 

I think Zito will end up in NY (Mets or Yankees), but the switch to the NL may not be as easy as people think. Zito won't know any of the hitters in the NL. I'd like to get Schmidt because he has shown what he can do in the NL.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Two words: Cy Young. I'm not saying it's right, but I think that award is a big factor in Zito's perceived value.

 

Yeah, I'm aware that Zito's perceived value is that high, but Sulley was saying it was justified.

 

it's justified because his kind do not become available every day, you know.

 

i don't see any other pitchers besides schmidt and mussina that we can add to our rotation that really add anything that our rookies can't.

Agreed, add into that the switch to the much easier national League and i think you can see why Zito would be a huge get for us.

 

I think Zito will end up in NY (Mets or Yankees), but the switch to the NL may not be as easy as people think. Zito won't know any of the hitters in the NL. I'd like to get Schmidt because he has shown what he can do in the NL.

 

Something tells me, that Zito will follow Mulder/Hudson into the NL and become instantly medicore. I mean Hudson has been better then Mulder, but Hudson hasn't exactly been the kind of pitcher that Oakland hyped him up to be.

 

Right now, I was cautiously talk with the Marlins about a trade (we've been burned that direction), and the Cubs have to be cautious about Zito who may or may not be the next coming of Kevin Millwood/CH Park.

 

All I know is Hendry needs to do his homework on the players he will be targeting, instead of relying on "the name factor".

[VanceJergins]

I havent seen many people mention Pettitte as a possibility for next year. Is it because of his bad year (bad first half, he's had an ERA of 2.89 since the ASB), think he'll ask for too much, is it assumed he'll return to Houston, or do people just not think he's very good?

 

I dont think he should be the first choice but it we lose out on Zito and Schmidt, he doesnt seem like a horrible alternative.

[goonys evil twin]

I havent seen many people mention Pettitte as a possibility for next year. Is it because of his bad year (bad first half, he's had an ERA of 2.89 since the ASB), think he'll ask for too much, is it assumed he'll return to Houston, or do people just not think he's very good?

 

I dont think he should be the first choice but it we lose out on Zito and Schmidt, he doesnt seem like a horrible alternative.

 

I think he would be a horrible alternative. He's fragile, old, inconsistent, overhyped and a guarantee to be overpaid. And his solid 2nd half has taken place in half the innings than his horrible 1st half. Andy has had a nice career, and he's had some very good to great seasons, but most of the time he's been right around average, or juts a little above. And just to emphasize, he's been dogged by elbow issues for a very long time.