5/12 Cubs (Guzman) vs. Padres (Williams) 1:20 CSN

[C.C.]

I dont know how much more of this I can take. The season so far has been nothing short of abysmal.

 

I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I predicted in the season predictions contest that the Cubs would win 74 games this year. I'm sittin' pretty.

 

I think you'll be off about about 10 games...Looks more like 64 games.

[YearofDaCubs]

God this team SUCKS! In every way! I mean we are basically the KC Royal or the Marlins with a 95 million dollar payroll...

At least the Marlins have an offense.

[Master Shake]

I think you'll be off about about 10 games...Looks more like 64 games.

 

Ahh, optimism!

[goonys evil twin]

I dont know how much more of this I can take. The season so far has been nothing short of abysmal.

 

I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I predicted in the season predictions contest that the Cubs would win 74 games this year. I'm sittin' pretty.

 

They have very little chance of winning that many.

[cheapseats]

Neifi with a rookie mistake, but he brings so much more to the table.

 

I believe it's Glendon that brings so much to the table.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Roberts grounded into a FC, 6-4, Young out at second, Canstilla & Gonzalez scored, Roberts to second, on a throwing error, E6

[CubfaninCA]

 

We lead the league in DP's! You have to do something to scrape some runs over.

 

Okay, fine. Reduce your chances to score, that is a brilliant way to scrape runs over.

 

Especially when runs, plural, is what is needed.

 

In this game, I have to agree. Guz & Rusch might give up 6 runs or so. If Z's pitching, I don't mind if Cedeno's laying down a bunt. There's a decent chance he turns it into a hit or an error on the opposition.

 

I don't mind if Pierre or Nef bunt in any situation. With the way they're hitting, might be better if they don't swing the bat.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Roberts stole third base

[LoneStarCubFan]

Pat and Ron are absolutely rippng Neifi for throwing that ball.

[sethuel1]

Saccing is STUPID.

 

Yeah but no matter what you need to get a hit. Either from Cedeno or ARAm.

 

Dude, it's been mathetmatically proven that saccing lowers your chance of scoring runs.

Actually, that's not completely true. While it is correct that sac bunts lower run expectancy in nearly all situations, there are a few situations where it's advisable and increases the odds you will score a run. That's why there's a positive correlation between sacrifices and run scoring. (Albeit a very, very small one.) Most managers know when sacrificing is a good idea and only employ the strategy when it's called for. Unfortunately for the Cubs, however, Dusty doesn't appear to be one of those managers.

 

Ok, it's been mathematically proven that, except in certain situations that almost always involve a man on second and no outs, you shouldn't be bunting.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Cameron doubled to left center field, Roberts scored

[Flames24Rulz]

and it's 6-2.

 

this team sucks.

[YearofDaCubs]

Something needs to be done. This cannot be acceptable. Somebody needs to be released or fired or something! Oh that great GM Hendry knows what he's doing. How many players should be DFA'd at this point? This man got an extension? Wow.

[louisvillecub]

What a debacle... :x

[ToupeeOnFire]

I don't even get mad anymore.

[LoneStarCubFan]

And Barrett gets in Roberts' face. Benches are clearing but nothing happened.

 

I'm guessing Barrett's jawing about Roberts stealing third.

[cheapseats]

I dont know how much more of this I can take. The season so far has been nothing short of abysmal.

 

I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I predicted in the season predictions contest that the Cubs would win 74 games this year. I'm sittin' pretty.

 

They have very little chance of winning that many.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Cubs are likely to win 71 or 72 games this year.

[Master Shake]

What's the record for most losses in a year?

 

IMHO, this team may be setting the new record if a huge shakeup doesn't take place TOMORROW.

[ToupeeOnFire]

Saccing is STUPID.

 

Yeah but no matter what you need to get a hit. Either from Cedeno or ARAm.

 

Dude, it's been mathetmatically proven that saccing lowers your chance of scoring runs.

Actually, that's not completely true. While it is correct that sac bunts lower run expectancy in nearly all situations, there are a few situations where it's advisable and increases the odds you will score a run. That's why there's a positive correlation between sacrifices and run scoring. (Albeit a very, very small one.) Most managers know when sacrificing is a good idea and only employ the strategy when it's called for. Unfortunately for the Cubs, however, Dusty doesn't appear to be one of those managers.

 

Ok, it's been mathematically proven that, except in certain situations that almost always involve a man on second and no outs, you shouldn't be bunting.

Here is what Bill James had to say about the sac bunt...

 

[T]he general argument against the bunt seems unpersuasive to me. The essential argument against the bunt is that the number of expected runs scored after a bunt attempt goes down in almost all situations when a bunt is used, and the expectation of scoring one run goes up only in a few situations.

 

But this argument is unpersuasive, to me, because it assumes that there are two possible outcomes of a bunt: a “successful” bunt, which trades a base for and out, and an “unsuccessful” bunt, which involves an out with no gain. In reality, there are about a dozen fairly common outcomes of a bunt attempt. The most common of those is a foul ball, but others include a base hit, a fielder’s choice/all safe, a pop out, a pop out into a double play, an error on the third baseman, and a hit plus an error on the third baseman, or the second baseman if you’re talking about a drag bunt.

 

Some of those outcomes are reasonably common, and others are quite significant even if they are statistically uncommon. For example, if there is a 2% chance that the third baseman will field the bunt and throw it up the first base line, that has a huge impact on the calculations, even though it is only a 2% chance. It seems to me that the argument against the bunt is unpersuasive unless you account for the entire range of reasonably common outcomes.

 

... [W]e are in danger of replacing one dogma with another. And the analysis is not strong enough to justify that.

[JonnyRed]

Thanks for being completely worthless, Rusch. You've now proven that you can no longer be a starter or a reliever in this league.

 

What the hell has happened to this team in the last 1 1/2 weeks?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Anyone left in the stands?

[LoneStarCubFan]

I think Barrett's about to get tossed.

 

Nope, umpires are warning both benches.

[TruffleShuffle]

I dont know how much more of this I can take. The season so far has been nothing short of abysmal.

 

I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I predicted in the season predictions contest that the Cubs would win 74 games this year. I'm sittin' pretty.

 

They have very little chance of winning that many.

 

True, but considering that there were only 2 other people who picked the Cubs to finish under .500 (76 & 78 wins) and most people picked them to win somewhere in the high 80s or low 90s, I'm going to clean up in that category.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Giles singled to center field, Cameron scored

[C.C.]

Ok, it's been mathematically proven that, except in certain situations that almost always involve a man on second and no outs, you shouldn't be bunting.

 

Does the mathematical equasion take into account we are the Chicago Cubs?

You know as well as I that mathamatics are worthless with this team. If we went by mathamatics we would've went to the WS in 1984 and 2003....