The NL through 20 games

[TheDude]

-8 teams are over .500 and 5 of them are in the NL Central

-8 teams are under .500 and 4 of them are in the NL East

-The Cubs have a .632 win % and are in 4th place in the division (5th in NL overall)

-Houston is the only Central team with fewer than 13 games in division (they have 6)

 

So the Central has been playing primarily against itself and yet they are all winning and killing the rest of the league in April win percentage. Typically when an entire division is above .500 folks point to lots of in-division games to even the spectrum, but that isn't the case here.

 

I stated pre-season that I expected the wild card to come from the Central and that this division would prove to be the most competitive. Thus far it has been.

 

So I ask, what record is it going to take to snatch each of the divisions this year, and then what record for the wild card? Is it possible the wild card team will have the 2nd best record in the NL?

[CubinNY]

90-93 wins willl get the Wildcard.

95 will get the division. The possible exception is the NL West where a win total in the 80s might do it.

 

The AL is stacked though.

[goonys evil twin]

I was hoping it wouldn't be much more than 89/90, but this strong start by nearly everybody is making me rethink. While the Central has been beating itself, for the most part (well, really just Pittsburgh), they've also all played against the East and/or West, and the worse record is Pittsburgh 2-2 against the West. Every other team has a winning record against whatever other division(s) they played.

 

This pace won't last. I think the West could inverse by season's end. I think the East will still take 90+ wins. The Central winner will probably need at least 93, and the West will probably be around 88-89.

[rawaction]

86-88 wins could win the wildcard. I don't expect anyone in the west to win 90. San Diego won last year with what, 82 wins?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The East will be won with right around 90, the west at around 85. The Central will take 92-95, and the wild card will come from the central with around 90.

[soccer10k]

NL West: 86

NL East: 92

NL Central: 96

Wild Card: 91

[bhogg]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

[srbin84]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

[goonys evil twin]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

 

But it's the complaining that gets annoying, not the constant complaining about complaining and accusations about those who are complaining.

[bhogg]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

 

But it's the complaining that gets annoying, not the constant complaining about complaining and accusations about those who are complaining.

 

 

We should do the baptist thing and form a committee to investigate the committee in charge of the committee who's repsonsible for over-seeing the complaint committee.

[cubs121]

wish hendry couldve done better we couldve been killing the NL any ways not to complain but the NL's really horrible compared to the AL

 

GO CUBS!!

[da bears]

I am glad the Cubs are 12-8 thus far. I believe last year they were 10-10. I was hoping for 13-7 for the first twenty games, but I'll take this start too. Now the Cubs need to keep it up.

[otis89]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

 

*referencing your sig*

 

Cool! Maddux has won more games than he's started! He's that awesome!

[NCCubFan]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

 

But it's the complaining that gets annoying, not the constant complaining about complaining and accusations about those who are complaining.

 

 

We should do the baptist thing and form a committee to investigate the committee in charge of the committee who's repsonsible for over-seeing the complaint committee.

And the Committee on Committees would have to establish this committee's duties, and the Nominating Committee would appoint members. :D

[Shilzzz]

doesn't cincinatti(sp) do this every year? no way they keep it up. once houston starts playing the reds, cards, brewers and us they will fade.

[nilodnayr]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

 

That scenario seems barely possible.

[nilodnayr]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

 

That scenario seems barely possible.

 

Last year no team in the NL lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 8 games of the WC (and none outside of 25). Still the 4 playoff teams won a combined 12 more games than what you are predicting.

 

In 2004, one team lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 9 games of the WC. A more common distributed year, 2004's playoff teams won a combined 27 more games than what you are predicting. In 2003, 31. In 2002, 42. As you can see, and you may remember, last year was full of extremely close races, which is unusual, proven by this brief lookback. I would expect a return to more stratification, probably not to the 2002 level (thank Milwaukee), but probably somewhere around the 2003/2004 levels.

 

My prediction

 

West: 89

East: 97

Central: 100

WC: 96

[srbin84]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

 

That scenario seems barely possible.

 

Last year no team in the NL lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 8 games of the WC (and none outside of 25). Still the 4 playoff teams won a combined 12 more games than what you are predicting.

 

In 2004, one team lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 9 games of the WC. A more common distributed year, 2004's playoff teams won a combined 27 more games than what you are predicting. In 2003, 31. In 2002, 42. As you can see, and you may remember, last year was full of extremely close races, which is unusual, proven by this brief lookback. I would expect a return to more stratification, probably not to the 2002 level (thank Milwaukee), but probably somewhere around the 2003/2004 levels.

 

My prediction

 

West: 89

East: 97

Central: 100

WC: 96

 

How many games will it take to win means one more win than the second place, hence, I think mine are the only ones that make sense. It looks like you are saying how many wins you think the winners will have.

[reggiemiller rules]

NL West: 84

NL East: 86

NL Central: 90

Wild Card: 89

 

That scenario seems barely possible.

 

Last year no team in the NL lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 8 games of the WC (and none outside of 25). Still the 4 playoff teams won a combined 12 more games than what you are predicting.

 

In 2004, one team lost more than 95 games and 5 teams finished within 9 games of the WC. A more common distributed year, 2004's playoff

teams won a combined 27 more games than what you are predicting. In 2003, 31. In 2002, 42. As you can see, and you may remember, last year was full of extremely close races, which is unusual, proven by this brief lookback. I would expect a return to more stratification, probably not to the 2002 level (thank Milwaukee), but probably somewhere around the 2003/2004 levels.

 

My prediction

 

West: 89

East: 97

Central: 100

WC: 96

 

How many games will it take to win means one more win than the second place, hence, I think mine are the only ones that make sense. It looks like you are saying how many wins you think the winners will have.

 

Since 1950 only twice has the NL leader in wins has 90 or less, not counting strike seasons. So i seriously doubt that the league leader will have onle 90 wins this year.

[srbin84]

All I was saying was that the leaders would need that amount of wins to win the division. I agree they will have more wins than that, but I looked at it as how many wins will it take to win the division. I don't think each winner will win by only 1 game. Here is how many wins I think the leaders will get:

 

West: 85

East: 93

Central: 92

WC: 89

[BigSlick]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

 

That might have to do with the fact that they all blow.

 

Seriously, a playoff season might end up being very very bad for the Cubs. Dusty needs to be shown the door quickly. Preferably replaced for a guy who doesn't say gems like "base clogging" and "neifi saved us"

[MPrior]

I think the positive we can take away from all this is that Houston is really starting out strong. If they start out real well, there's no way they can fall to 15 games under .500, only to storm their way to the playoffs. In fact, I think they'll storm their way to 15 games over .500, only to collapse all the way down to last place (well, except the Pirates, cause seriously. They're the Pirates).

[soccer10k]

Whatever happens, the cubs could win 95 games and there'd still be a line 8 miles long of neifi / dusty / jones / pierre haters :)

 

That might have to do with the fact that they all blow.

 

Seriously, a playoff season might end up being very very bad for the Cubs. Dusty needs to be shown the door quickly. Preferably replaced for a guy who doesn't say gems like "base clogging" and "neifi saved us"

 

I know you don't like Dusty, but saying a playoff appearance for the Cubs is bad is just stupid. I know what you are saying that you don't want Dusty to stay. But if Dusty comes close to the playoffs I think he'll be resigned. If he has a repeat of last year then he won't, but if we come within a couple games of the playoffs, especially with Lee out for 2+ months, then he'll get a new contract.

[IWU_CUBS_FAN]

all i know is that I am very pleased not so much with the 12-8 start as I am with the 9 game stretch record. I read that going 5-4 every 9 games(I don't know if it was on here or cubs.com) puts a team at 90-72. So if the cubs just break the schedule down to 18 9-game stretches and they play 1 game over each time that will be great. they are 1 game ahead of the pace so i'm happy.

 

GO CUBS!

[Banedon]

As of this morning, there are 3 teams in the majors with 15 wins, and all of them are in the NL Central.