2007 Draft Class

[E.J.]

please stay the hell away from high school pitchers, at least with that first pick

 

Away from highschool players in general, look at our last few highschool drafted players yuck!

 

we got Gallagher as a nice value pick in the later rounds.... I'm fine with doing that, but I want someone who's as safe as possible with a top 3 pick, not another Luis Montanez or Ryan Harvey

 

Harvey could still turn into something special...

 

when he's converted to a pitcher

[UK1679666180]

I would put faith into Wilken regardless of whether they are from HS or College, given his track record.

 

Those drafts of past experiences were w/a diff. scouting director as well as now there are different instructors at the minor league levels.

 

Using a general fear based on HS players is one thing (I don't agree with it) but has more logic than just applying it b/c it hasn't worked out only for the Cubs.

[TruffleShuffle]

I would put faith into Wilken regardless of whether they are from HS or College, given his track record.

 

Those drafts of past experiences were w/a diff. scouting director as well as now there are different instructors at the minor league levels.

 

Using a general fear based on HS players is one thing (I don't agree with it) but has more logic than just applying it b/c it hasn't worked out only for the Cubs.

 

high school players fail at a higher rate than college players.

[UK1679666180]

I would put faith into Wilken regardless of whether they are from HS or College, given his track record.

 

Those drafts of past experiences were w/a diff. scouting director as well as now there are different instructors at the minor league levels.

 

Using a general fear based on HS players is one thing (I don't agree with it) but has more logic than just applying it b/c it hasn't worked out only for the Cubs.

 

high school players fail at a higher rate than college players.

 

With the 3rd pick, you're drafting for a star not safety. While drafting 3rd will likely give a similar ceiling player from HS or college regardless given how high it is, the trends have shifted towards more teams drafting college players and allowing HS players to fall. Personally, I would be disappointed if my team went for a safe pick rather than the higher ceiling.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I would put faith into Wilken regardless of whether they are from HS or College, given his track record.

 

Exactly.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nate (PA): Hey Jim! The Cubs are notorious for getting very little Major League talent from their high draft picks. This year my Cubbies will have a Top 5 pick. Who should we draft? Who do you think Hendry and his staff will select?

 

Jim Callis: (2:21 PM ET ) I keep thinking that scouting director Tim Wilken will take Georgia Tech C Matt Wieters with the second pick.

 

I'm sure Callis meant third pick instead of second. It's nice to see Wieters' name attached to Wilken's. :)

[Vinestal]

I would put faith into Wilken regardless of whether they are from HS or College, given his track record.

 

Those drafts of past experiences were w/a diff. scouting director as well as now there are different instructors at the minor league levels.

 

Using a general fear based on HS players is one thing (I don't agree with it) but has more logic than just applying it b/c it hasn't worked out only for the Cubs.

 

high school players fail at a higher rate than college players.

 

With the 3rd pick, you're drafting for a star not safety. While drafting 3rd will likely give a similar ceiling player from HS or college regardless given how high it is, the trends have shifted towards more teams drafting college players and allowing HS players to fall. Personally, I would be disappointed if my team went for a safe pick rather than the higher ceiling.

 

Not me, I want the player with the higher probablity to succede. Luis Montez is no star, Ryan Harvey is probably never going to even be a mediocre major leaguer. Im a little tired of wasting high picks on guys who just plain suck in the minors. I think its very hard to gauge how a high school position player's talent will translate when put into profesional ball. Its seems to me to be much easier to judge how a college possition player's talent will translate as they are further along in thier developement. I think Truffle is correct when he says that High School players fail at a higher rate than college players. I think that applies across the board not just in our system.

[RichHillIsABeast]

If you want mediocre players, they're readily available in FA and via trade.

[Vinestal]

If you want mediocre players, they're readily available in FA and via trade.

 

lol ok, well you cant be a star if you never make a major leage roster now can you?

[CubColtPacer]

If you want mediocre players, they're readily available in FA and via trade.

 

Exactly-high schoolers may fail at a higher rate, but the most talented players also typically come out of of high school. If you draft 10 players, a big market team would rather 2-3 become true impact players and the other 7 be awful then all 10 become mediocre (or 1 standout, 5 mediocre, and 4 failures would probably be a better comparison).

[Vinestal]

If you want mediocre players, they're readily available in FA and via trade.

 

Exactly-high schoolers may fail at a higher rate, but the most talented players also typically come out of of high school. If you draft 10 players, a big market team would rather 2-3 become true impact players and the other 7 be awful then all 10 become mediocre (or 1 standout, 5 mediocre, and 4 failures would probably be a better comparison).

 

 

I dont think the most talented players come out of high school. I dont really understand your argument. I really dont care if they draft highschool players further down in the draft, because those picks are more of a roll of the dice anyway. You want to draft a higher risk player with your highest pick? THere will be plenty of high ceiling guys availible with the 3rd pick I'd just rather see them use that pick on a guy thats more likely to succede in pro ball than one that more likely to bust.

Id like to see the top 10 picks from the last 5 years and see how many of the position players that succeded at star level were highschool players and how many were college players.

[imb]

Unless I'm darned sure he's going to stick at catcher, I don't see his bat being overwhelming. That's a great line for a college catcher, but I wouldn't say that he is a sure thing to be an impact bat in the majors regardless of position at this point.

 

FWIW, he was significantly better each of his first two years.

 

2005: .366/.470/.581/1.051

2006: .355/.480/.606/1.086

 

He's now up to .336/.467/.588/1.055

 

He also now has 31BB/21K. I think he was at 20/20 at one point, so he's starting to get hot.

[CubColtPacer]

If you want mediocre players, they're readily available in FA and via trade.

 

Exactly-high schoolers may fail at a higher rate, but the most talented players also typically come out of of high school. If you draft 10 players, a big market team would rather 2-3 become true impact players and the other 7 be awful then all 10 become mediocre (or 1 standout, 5 mediocre, and 4 failures would probably be a better comparison).

 

 

I dont think the most talented players come out of high school. I dont really understand your argument. I really dont care if they draft highschool players further down in the draft, because those picks are more of a roll of the dice anyway. You want to draft a higher risk player with your highest pick? THere will be plenty of high ceiling guys availible with the 3rd pick I'd just rather see them use that pick on a guy thats more likely to succede in pro ball than one that more likely to bust.

Id like to see the top 10 picks from the last 5 years and see how many of the position players that succeded at star level were highschool players and how many were college players.

 

Let me go a little further back then that so we can allow all players to make their way through the minor leagues. I picked out 1998-2002 as a good timeframe (let it be known, I did not skew the results with those years purposefully-I have absolutely no idea who was drafted in the top 10 in each of those years).

 

2002

B.J. Upton-HS

Donald Greinke-HS

Prince Fielder-HS

Scott Moore-HS

Drew Meyer-college

 

2001

Joe Mauer-HS

Mark Texeira-college

Chris Burke-college

 

2000

Adrian Gonzalez-HS

Luis Montanez-HS

Rocco Baldelli-HS

 

1999

Josh Hamilton-HS

Eric Munson-college

Corey Myers-HS

BJ Garbe-HS

 

1998

Pat Burrell-college

Corey Patterson-HS

J.D. Drew-HS?

Austin Kearns-HS

Felipe Lopez-HS

Sean Burroughs-HS

Carlos Pena-college

 

I have to run, so I'll just have to give you the data for now without any analysis.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Unless I'm darned sure he's going to stick at catcher, I don't see his bat being overwhelming. That's a great line for a college catcher, but I wouldn't say that he is a sure thing to be an impact bat in the majors regardless of position at this point.

 

FWIW, he was significantly better each of his first two years.

 

2005: .366/.470/.581/1.051

2006: .355/.480/.606/1.086

 

He's now up to .336/.467/.588/1.055

 

He also now has 31BB/21K. I think he was at 20/20 at one point, so he's starting to get hot.

 

Callis said we'd take Wieters in a chat he did today.

[Jazz]

so i don't screw this up when talking about him, is it pronounced Wee-ters, or White-ers

[imb]

Unless I'm darned sure he's going to stick at catcher, I don't see his bat being overwhelming. That's a great line for a college catcher, but I wouldn't say that he is a sure thing to be an impact bat in the majors regardless of position at this point.

 

FWIW, he was significantly better each of his first two years.

 

2005: .366/.470/.581/1.051

2006: .355/.480/.606/1.086

 

He's now up to .336/.467/.588/1.055

 

He also now has 31BB/21K. I think he was at 20/20 at one point, so he's starting to get hot.

 

Callis said we'd take Wieters in a chat he did today.

 

be still my beating heart

[texascub]

so i don't screw this up when talking about him, is it pronounced Wee-ters, or White-ers

 

I've always pronounced it Wee-ters.

[NCCubFan]

so i don't screw this up when talking about him, is it pronounced Wee-ters, or White-ers

 

I've always pronounced it Wee-ters.

With that spelling I think it would be pronounced that way. If it were White-ers it would probably be spelled Weiters.

[Outshined_One]

I've repeated this time and again whenever people try to do limited analyses of drafted players in terms of success rates based on a certain classification (pitchers, position players, college, HS, etc).

 

They do not work.

 

There are numerous factors which make things so incredibly muddled in terms of determining whether a team made the right decision in drafting a player. I've seen a number of studies done on overall success rates in the draft and whatnot, but you absolutely cannot make universal judgments on players based on something like whether that player was drafted in the Top 10 or if that guy was drafted as a shortstop.

 

Here are a few factors worth noting...

 

-Signability. In 2006, the consensus best player in the draft (Andrew Miller) fell to #6 due to signability concerns, since the top teams were worried about his contract demands. In 2004, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew suffered the same fate. Because of contract demands, college commitments, and a variety of other factors, guys who would otherwise be taken in the Top 10, first round, first five rounds, or whatever, based on talent instead fall well out of those spots.

 

It's not necessarily that the Cubs have been able to unearth guys like Sean Gallagher, Jeff Samardzija, and Chris Huseby because they were diamonds in the rough. Instead, the Cubs had enough scouting and money to pry those guys away from their commitments.

 

-Injuries. Yes, they are an unfortunate fact of life when it comes to sports, but I maintain that the majority of injuries which occur are not foreseeable. Sometimes, bad things happen to guys which no one could see coming and it could at the least set back their development and at worst end their careers. How fair is it to judge a team based on drafting a certain player in hindsight when, at the time, he had a clean bill of health with no red flags?

 

Cripes, just imagine what the Mets' rotation would look like if Isringhausen, Wilson, and Pulsipher didn't all have arm injuries. I'll refrain from addressing the Cubs' history in this area, but you get the idea.

 

-Arbitrariness/Sample Size. This is part nitpick, part major point. The nitpick is, why limit yourself to the Top 10? What makes 10 so special? How much would it affect the numbers, success rates, and correlations if you increased the sample size to something like Top 15, Top 20, and so on? Based on the signability issues I mentioned above, wouldn't it make some sense to expand the pool to include these potential top picks who fell because of money concerns?

 

Secondly, this is an incredibly difficult thing to accurately measure in terms of sample size. I've seen people pull out the last 15 #6 overall picks in the NFL draft based on the Bears' tradeup rumors and people have been making predictions based on the success numbers at that pick. The problem is, the pick itself does not dictate how good or bad a player will be; it's the scouting department, talent available, and to a certain extent the luck that will determine that matter.

 

To me, that's the bottom line in all of this. I don't particularly care who the Cubs draft, where the guy played ball, how old he is, and so on. What I really care about is whether the Cubs did their homework on the guy and know that he's got the chops to make an impact on the big league club some day.

 

Poor scouting and bad luck lead to more busted draft picks than anything else, you know?

[RammyFanny]

Here's a great recent article on the draft:

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/allansimpson/weeklycolumn/week9_4607.aspx

 

Some tidbits:

 

Tampa Bay has the No. 1 pick and, according to scouting director R.J. Harrison, had narrowed the list of candidates in late March to four—Price, and three other players. Harrison wouldn’t tip his hand who the others were on his short list, but industry sources believed them to be three more college players: North Carolina State righthander Andrew Brackman, Missouri State lefthander Ross Detwiler and Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters.

 

 

A second AL scouting director said the 6-foot-6, 215-pound Price is a superior prospect when compared to former North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller, who was the consensus best talent in the 2006 draft. Miller slid to sixth overall because of concerns over his signability but inked a major league contract with the Detroit Tigers that provided for a $3.55 million signing bonus—the largest bonus given to a 2006 draft pick.

 

 

“You compare the two and Price has more ability, more uniqueness to him,” the AL scouting director said. “He’s got more athletic ability, three solid pitches and better strike-zone ability. His command is inconsistent, but it’s still worthy of being the No. 1 pick.”

 

“They do some strange things from time to time in Tampa Bay ,” said a National League scouting director, “but I can’t see how they can screw this one up. The only concern I see is he throws a lot of pitches, goes deep into games. You just need to keep an eye on that.”

 

California, typically, sets the tone in any draft and the player that has surged to the top of the high school list this spring is third baseman Josh Vitters of Cypress High in Anaheim . He already has been linked to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the fourth pick.

 

 

Vitters’ best tool has always been his power, but scouts have seen a more refined overall hitter this spring. Defensively, he’s sound but not in the same class as another southern California prep third baseman, Matt Dominguez, who is also a near-lock to go in the first round.

 

Besides Vitters, the only other prep position player in the country that is considered a sure bet to go in the top half of the first round is 6-foot-4, 220-pound outfielder Jason Heyward of Henry County High in McDonough, Ga. His strength and power potential are his obvious strengths, but he’s such a feared hitter in the Georgia high school ranks that scouts have had a difficult time getting a read on him this spring because he has not been getting pitched to.

 

 

Michael Burgess of Hillsborough High in Tampa was on a par with Heyward as a prospect at the start of the year, but the 5-foot-11, 195-pound outfielder has not swung the bat with the same authority or determination that he has in the past.

 

 

“He’s got the big raw power and always takes a great rip,” an NL scouting director said, “but he’s thinking too much at the plate this year. It seems like he has a different stance every time up. I’m sure he’s pressing a bit as the expectations are so high.”

 

In three of the last four drafts, the first prep righthander wasn’t selected until the 16th pick overall.

 

 

There might be an exception this year, however, as Irving (Texas ) High righthander Blake Beavan has performed brilliantly. Through his first 39 innings, Beavan was 6-0, 0.00 with 11 hits, two walks and 80 strikeouts.

 

 

“He’s been pretty special so far,” a scouting director said. “He’s shown us a power arm, a wipeout slider and the ability to throw a lot more strikes than he has in the past. I think he’s the one high school righthander that I can say with some certainty will be in the first 10 picks this year.”

 

This was supposed to be the year that the baseball draft made its long-awaited debut on mainstream TV. The master plan was for ESPN and its affiliate of networks to televise the first round and supplemental first round, with much of the pomp and circumstance that is associated with the network’s coverage of the NFL draft.

 

It appeared that scenario was falling nicely into place earlier this year until Major League Baseball became embroiled in a deal of its own involving Direct TV that impacted Extra Innings and the creation of the new The Baseball Channel on Direct TV. Televising the draft suddenly became a backburner issue, but now that MLB has reached a resolution on its Extra Innings package talks are expected to heat up again with ESPN.

 

Even more at link.

[CubinNY]

Unless I'm darned sure he's going to stick at catcher, I don't see his bat being overwhelming. That's a great line for a college catcher, but I wouldn't say that he is a sure thing to be an impact bat in the majors regardless of position at this point.

 

FWIW, he was significantly better each of his first two years.

 

2005: .366/.470/.581/1.051

2006: .355/.480/.606/1.086

 

He's now up to .336/.467/.588/1.055

 

He also now has 31BB/21K. I think he was at 20/20 at one point, so he's starting to get hot.

 

Callis said we'd take Wieters in a chat he did today.

 

be still my beating heart

 

No kidding. I saw him on CSS against Georgia the other day. The kid is a monster. I don't know about him sticking behind the plate but with his arm he could hold down a corner outfield spot.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Is Weiters on the JD Drew level of talent, or the Mark Tex?

 

I consider Drew the most talented college player since Barry Bonds. He may not have had the same career as Bonds, but he had that kind of hype.

 

Is Weiters being talked about at that level?

[Mephistopheles]

Is Weiters on the JD Drew level of talent, or the Mark Tex?

 

I consider Drew the most talented college player since Barry Bonds. He may not have had the same career as Bonds, but he had that kind of hype.

 

Is Weiters being talked about at that level?

hes not as good as either. hes probably comparable to jeff clement, maybe not quite as much power. clement could jack 40 bombs.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs have done some different things with the draft in recent years. They've spent big on the best guy they could find, and they've cheaped out with guys at times. With the ownership situation in flux, and no real PR reason to sign a guy, like there is with Zambrano, does anybody see them going cheap in this draft. And if they did, who would come into play?

[RammyFanny]

My new top 3 are now

1. Price

2. Wieters

3. Beavan

 

 

And yes, I know that's a highschooler, but if Price and Weiters are gone i'll take my chances with the kid who has nasty stuff over my previous favorite, Brackman.

 

Also, I remember someone here saying that they thought Beavan would have arm problems in the future due to delivery:

1.) Where'd you get his pitching clips?

2.) I've also read that the way he gets rid of the ball (more of a 3/4ths delivery) is likely to make him less of an injury risk, so i'm a little confused.