2007 Draft Class

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Price vs. Ole Miss

 

10 IP (that's Dusty ball), 4 h, 2 er, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 14 K's.

 

137 pitches, my head is spinning

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's college baseball. What did you expect?

[Mephistopheles]

The irrelevant: Alan Schwarz is leaving BA and joining the NYT.

 

It's college baseball. What did you expect?

 

Ask BA:

Jim Callis[/url]"]Price, who'll face Arkansas' Nick Schmidt tonight in a matchup of first-rounders, has pitched three complete games in a row. On March 2, he pitched a seven-hitter with one walk and 13 strikeouts to beat Xavier 3-2. The following Friday, he struck out a career high and allowed just four hits and one walk in a 2-1 win over Illinois-Chicago. And in his last outing, he went a full 10 innings, permitting just four hits and two walks while fanning 14 in a 3-2 victory over Mississippi.

 

Vanderbilt doesn't list pitch counts on its website, but Xavier and Mississippi do. He threw 127 pitches against the Musketeers and 137 against the Rebels. He averaged 3.7 pitches per batter in both contests; facing 30 batters against Illinois-Chicago yields an estimate of 111 pitches. That would make a total of 375 pitches over his last three starts.

 

Is this something the major league team that takes Price at or near the top of the draft wants to see? Of course not. But it also doesn't mean that Price's arm will fall off before he even gets to the June draft.

 

Pitching in a college game is less stressful than pitching in a minor league or major league contest. College pitchers also work once a week rather than every five days. So Price's workload, while not optimal, is not the same as a big league pitcher throwing 375 pitches over three starts, which would be cause for alarm.

 

I remember covering the 1991 College World Series, when Fresno State's Bobby Jones was the dominant pitcher in college baseball. He went 16-2, 1.88 with 166 strikeouts in 172 innings while completing 18 of his 20 starts, including his final 16. At the CWS, an out-of-town reporter did a story on how irresponsible it was for Bulldogs coach Bob Bennett to use Jones like that, but it had no long-term repercussions. Jones breezed through the minors and pitched for a decade in the majors, staying healthy until he strained his rotator cuff in 1999.

 

Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin acknowledges that it would be foolish to ride Price this hard all spring, and he doesn't plan on doing so. In Aaron Fitt's latest College Weekend Preview, Corbin says, "You don't want to back a kid in the corner and have him throw complete games back to back to back to back, otherwise you might not have as much as you need in May and June. I think you just need to be wise with what you're doing. At times we'll want to get him out of there. He's pitched some very close games the last few weekends, and back in eighth and ninth innings in the dugout, you get to the point where you ask him, 'Are you OK?' But he just walks quickly by you: 'Don't ask me that question because I'm not going to answer it.' That's what's happened. We've also got the right-of-way to say, 'Hey David, that's enough.' "

 

And other random stuff from a Callis chat.

 

Jim Callis[/url]"]Jake (DRays Bay, IL): With the Rays having the #1 pick and Price being the almost "hands down" best college Pitcher thus far, should the Rays be worried that Price has pitched 3 consecutive CGs and the last 2 have seen his pitch counts hit the 120 mark and higher(His last start was a 10 inning, 137 pitch performance)?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:01 PM ET ) Not sure Price has been hands down the best, as North Carolina State's Andrew Brackman also has been impressive. I'm sure the Rays and other interested teams aren't happy about Price's pitch counts, but there's not much they can do other than hope he holds up. I can't imagine he'll keep throwing 120-130 pitches every week.

 

Steve(Chicago): Is Donald Veal likely to be major league ready by this time next year?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:15 PM ET ) I could see him pushing to make the Cubs at the start of 2008. Few lefthanders can match his stuff, and he was gaining consistency by the end of 2006.

 

Khalid (Brooklyn, NY): Can you give me a general impression of what % of first round picks make it to the majors? Second round picks? How quick is the dropoff from the first round success rate?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:20 PM ET ) In 2003, I did some detailed research on the 1990-97 drafts. A few more players may have reached the big leagues since then, but at that point it was 65 percent in the first round (counting sandwich picks), 47 percent in the second round and 32 percent in the third. The decline isn't as steep afterward, but it continues. I looked at the first 10 rounds, and only 20 percent of 10th-rounders made it. Overall, 33 percent of players from the first 10 rounds made it. In terms of significant players, the percentage was 8 percent.

 

Jake (DRays Bay): It's Jake again and I've got a follow-up question. If you had the choice between Brackman and Price for your #1 pick, knowing that Price is more polished and almost ML-ready and Brack is going to take a few years but may have the most upside, who would you choose (pitching-wise)? Also, is there any chance that JMU Duke Kellen Kulbacki falls into the 2nd round for the Rays' next pick?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:22 PM ET ) If Brackman and Price are close in my eyes (or in the Rays' eyes), the deciding factor very well could be price (no pun intended). Brackman is advised by Scott Boras, while I believe Price is advised by Bo McKinnis. Kulbacki has been gaining momentum, and with college bats in short supply, he could sneak into the supplemental first round with the right club.

 

Derek (Chi, IL): I have been reading that the people at BP are not big on the cubs Jeff Samardzjia, saying hes a "thrower" and not a pitcher, and that at 22 hes too old to project highly. How does he project with the people at BA??

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:28 PM ET ) Samardzija is a unique guy. He's not like most 22 year olds. He has been an All-America wide receiver and would have been an early-round NFL draft pick had he so chosen. So he's 22 chronologically and not in "baseball years," and he has a lot of room for projection, if that makes sense. Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken isn't infallible, but he does have as good a track record of any of his peers. And he thinks Samardzija will take off after his mechanics smooth out, a process the Cubs already have begun and to which Samardzija is taking very well. Am I as optimistic as the Cubs? No, and I wouldn't have given him $10 million. But do I think Samadzija can be a frontline starter? Yes, I do.

 

Justin (Queens, NY): Better season: Pelfrey or R.Hill?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:52 PM ET ) Rich Hill.

 

Steve (Orland Park, IL): Who do the Cubs take with the 3rd overall pick?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:01 PM ET ) Andrew Brackman.

 

Some of these may have been posted elsewhere. Shoot me.

[RammyFanny]

Thanks for those Meph.

 

Brackman is killing me with his last outings, though. He needs to step it up if he wants to be the consensus third again.

[Mephistopheles]

Not really. Personally I think Price has to show just as much as he does. Last year he crashed down the stretch once he reached the meat of the SEC schedule. He's not off to a great start this year.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Honestly, I don't get the Brackman hype.

 

Actually thats a lie...he's tall and throws hard.

 

Still, he's not producing at all and tall pitchers who succeed are definitely more the exception than the rule.

 

Price or Weiters is the way to go man.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's going to be Burgess everyone!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not really. Personally I think Price has to show just as much as he does. Last year he crashed down the stretch once he reached the meat of the SEC schedule. He's not off to a great start this year.

 

Yup.

[Mephistopheles]

Honestly, I don't get the Brackman hype.

 

Actually thats a lie...he's tall and throws hard.

 

Still, he's not producing at all and tall pitchers who succeed are definitely more the exception than the rule.

 

Price or Weiters is the way to go man.

 

Brackman, much like Samardzija, has more projection than your average college starter. His first two years he spent quite of a bit of development time on the hardwood. You have to take that into account. He's also pretty athletic for a big guy, which isn't as common as you'd think with the other pitchers that are tall. On average the taller pitchers do turn out better. I don't know where the hell your get the exception to the rule crap.

 

He's not tall and just throws hard. He has pretty good offspeed stuff and has shown a much better ability to dominate hitters than Samardzija. His potential is through the roof.

 

He's nearly seven foot tall, throws in the upper 90s with quality secondary pitches. How can you NOT like that? To be honest, I'm not so sure he's not the best college prospect. It's between him and Price, and I am not one to buy the whole take Price because he's left-handed argument.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Honestly, I don't get the Brackman hype.

 

Actually thats a lie...he's tall and throws hard.

 

Still, he's not producing at all and tall pitchers who succeed are definitely more the exception than the rule.

 

Price or Weiters is the way to go man.

 

Brackman, much like Samardzija, has more projection than your average college starter. His first two years he spent quite of a bit of development time on the hardwood. You have to take that into account. He's also pretty athletic for a big guy, which isn't as common as you'd think with the other pitchers that are tall. On average the taller pitchers do turn out better. I don't know where the hell your get the exception to the rule crap.

 

He's not tall and just throws hard. He has pretty good offspeed stuff and has shown a much better ability to dominate hitters than Samardzija. His potential is through the roof.

 

He's nearly seven foot tall, throws in the upper 90s with quality secondary pitches. How can you NOT like that? To be honest, I'm not so sure he's not the best college prospect. It's between him and Price, and I am not one to buy the whole take Price because he's left-handed argument.

 

What about the idea that Price seperates himself on the field? His performance is much stronger than Brackman's.

 

Guys who JUST started playing baseball full time shouldn't be top 10 picks IMO. Especially a guy whose profile is just soo....rare in effectiveness in this game.

 

Projectability is cool, but you want the upside + ability to reach it when you're picking this high in the first round. Brackman IMO doesn't have that whole package thing going on.

[Rob]

Honestly, I don't get the Brackman hype.

 

Actually thats a lie...he's tall and throws hard.

 

Still, he's not producing at all and tall pitchers who succeed are definitely more the exception than the rule.

 

Price or Weiters is the way to go man.

 

Brackman, much like Samardzija, has more projection than your average college starter. His first two years he spent quite of a bit of development time on the hardwood. You have to take that into account. He's also pretty athletic for a big guy, which isn't as common as you'd think with the other pitchers that are tall. On average the taller pitchers do turn out better. I don't know where the hell your get the exception to the rule crap.

 

He's not tall and just throws hard. He has pretty good offspeed stuff and has shown a much better ability to dominate hitters than Samardzija. His potential is through the roof.

 

He's nearly seven foot tall, throws in the upper 90s with quality secondary pitches. How can you NOT like that? To be honest, I'm not so sure he's not the best college prospect. It's between him and Price, and I am not one to buy the whole take Price because he's left-handed argument.

 

I buy the whole "switch hitting catcher with power and patience" thing.

 

If I had the #1 overall, I'd take Wieters.

[radarluv1]

Honestly, I don't get the Brackman hype.

 

Actually thats a lie...he's tall and throws hard.

 

Still, he's not producing at all and tall pitchers who succeed are definitely more the exception than the rule.

 

Price or Weiters is the way to go man.

 

Brackman, much like Samardzija, has more projection than your average college starter. His first two years he spent quite of a bit of development time on the hardwood. You have to take that into account. He's also pretty athletic for a big guy, which isn't as common as you'd think with the other pitchers that are tall. On average the taller pitchers do turn out better. I don't know where the hell your get the exception to the rule crap.

 

He's not tall and just throws hard. He has pretty good offspeed stuff and has shown a much better ability to dominate hitters than Samardzija. His potential is through the roof.

 

He's nearly seven foot tall, throws in the upper 90s with quality secondary pitches. How can you NOT like that? To be honest, I'm not so sure he's not the best college prospect. It's between him and Price, and I am not one to buy the whole take Price because he's left-handed argument.

 

I buy the whole "switch hitting catcher with power and patience" thing.

 

If I had the #1 overall, I'd take Wieters.

what do people think of his defense, and how come i havent read of any comparisons with mauer?

[craig]

It will be interesting to see how the spring plays out, and the draft. Again, I think analogies are helpful and paint a picture, but often there are fine points of difference. For a decade there were prospects who were analogized to Nolan Ryan or Tom Seaver. But few of the Nolan Ryans ended up with quite the durability or velocity or curveball that the real Ryan had. Few of the Tom Seaver comps ended up pitching like the real Tom.

 

Brackman/Samardz is a nice analogy, with the height, the speed, the two-sport, and the as-yet-unfulfilled potential. Obviously however high-90's Brackman supposedly throws, and however good his secondary stuff supposedly already is, the fact that he's kind of struggling along to retire the college hitters thus far suggests that, at least for the moment, something is missing.

 

Obviously the same held true for samardz last spring as well, but Wilken believed anyway, and the Cubs believed to the tun of $10 million. And now (almost) everybody who's seen Sam this spring can't gush enough. So it's well possible that Wilekn will see the same or greater potential in Brackman, and will be thrilled to use the high pick and tons of millions to reel him in.

 

But it's also possible that while the framework of analogy is excellent, that the devil is in the detials and Wilken for whatever reason won't see as much in Brackman as he saw in Samardz. Maybe he doesn't see the ease of delivery. Maybe he doesn't see the same sink-and-tail. Maybe despite his athleticism he doesn't see the same good-for-pitcher athleticism. Maybe he doesn't see the same easy consistency of high velocity. Maybe he sees the high speed, but the same speed with NOvoa movement doesn't have the same appeal as Sam-speed with Sam-movement. Really hard for me to guess.

 

Will certainly be no surprise if it's brackman. And if next spring he looks as great as Samardz supposedly looks now, nobody will care about a couple of struggle games this March. But neither would it be any surprise if despite the hype that Wilken prefers somebody else, even if that be a HS prospect. It will be fun to watch.

 

But it would be more fun if all three of Brackman and Price and Wieters produced over the rest of the spring, so that performance as well as projection would make it a no-brainer that whoever lasts to us at #3 is a no-brainer choice.

[TruffleShuffle]

It will be interesting to see how the spring plays out, and the draft. Again, I think analogies are helpful and paint a picture, but often there are fine points of difference. For a decade there were prospects who were analogized to Nolan Ryan or Tom Seaver. But few of the Nolan Ryans ended up with quite the durability or velocity or curveball that the real Ryan had. Few of the Tom Seaver comps ended up pitching like the real Tom.

 

Brackman/Samardz is a nice analogy, with the height, the speed, the two-sport, and the as-yet-unfulfilled potential. Obviously however high-90's Brackman supposedly throws, and however good his secondary stuff supposedly already is, the fact that he's kind of struggling along to retire the college hitters thus far suggests that, at least for the moment, something is missing.

 

Obviously the same held true for samardz last spring as well, but Wilken believed anyway, and the Cubs believed to the tun of $10 million. And now (almost) everybody who's seen Sam this spring can't gush enough. So it's well possible that Wilekn will see the same or greater potential in Brackman, and will be thrilled to use the high pick and tons of millions to reel him in.

 

But it's also possible that while the framework of analogy is excellent, that the devil is in the detials and Wilken for whatever reason won't see as much in Brackman as he saw in Samardz. Maybe he doesn't see the ease of delivery. Maybe he doesn't see the same sink-and-tail. Maybe despite his athleticism he doesn't see the same good-for-pitcher athleticism. Maybe he doesn't see the same easy consistency of high velocity. Maybe he sees the high speed, but the same speed with NOvoa movement doesn't have the same appeal as Sam-speed with Sam-movement. Really hard for me to guess.

 

Will certainly be no surprise if it's brackman. And if next spring he looks as great as Samardz supposedly looks now, nobody will care about a couple of struggle games this March. But neither would it be any surprise if despite the hype that Wilken prefers somebody else, even if that be a HS prospect. It will be fun to watch.

 

But it would be more fun if all three of Brackman and Price and Wieters produced over the rest of the spring, so that performance as well as projection would make it a no-brainer that whoever lasts to us at #3 is a no-brainer choice.

 

I'm all for a high ceiling, but with the #3 pick in the draft, I want someone who's as close to being a sure thing as possible. Samardzija was fine, because that was a 5th round pick and the "safe" 5th round pick is probably just a fringe major leaguer. There's a very good chance that Wieters and Price will be at least decent major league players... I wouldn't say the same about Brakman.

[illiniguy]

For once do the right thing and don't take a pitcher who we will hurt anyways. Take the switch hitting catcher who is a shoe in to be a good player.

[Guest]

For once do the right thing and don't take a pitcher who we will hurt anyways. Take the switch hitting catcher who is a shoe in to be a good player.

Because our record with developing catchers is so much better? :?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I like Wieters; the Cubs will pick Burgess. Sooner or later one of our toolsy HS athletes will work out.

[TruffleShuffle]

For once do the right thing and don't take a pitcher who we will hurt anyways. Take the switch hitting catcher who is a shoe in to be a good player.

Because our record with developing catchers is so much better? :?

 

when was the last time we drafted a catcher in the first round?

[TruffleShuffle]

oh yeah, the cubs should draft little murt next year :D

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I like Wieters; the Cubs will pick Burgess. Sooner or later one of our toolsy HS athletes will work out.

 

Cuz that's Wilken's MO.

[illiniguy]

For once do the right thing and don't take a pitcher who we will hurt anyways. Take the switch hitting catcher who is a shoe in to be a good player.

Because our record with developing catchers is so much better? :?

I don't think there is much devloping left in this case, kinda like with Tex out of Ga Tech.

[craig]

How uniform is the consensus that Wieters will be able to catch in the big-leagues right away or with only a little additional polish? And how uniform is the consensus that Wieters will be able to stay at catcher, even as some years pass? Sometimes guys get bigger after their 21st birthday and lose some of the quickness and/or flexibility required to catch.

 

Is the view on his catching defense that it's OK enough to stick there, given his bat? Or is the view that he projects as a flat-out asset defender at catcher, regardless of his bat?

 

Q3, is he a fairly high-K type hitter? Or is he such a perfect hitter (in college) that he hits for power and gets the walks but still doesn't K at all either?

 

To me, plus power and plus walks can more than justify plenty of K's. But the perfect projection hitting prospect is the guy who can swing hard enough to hit HR's, who can be patient and selective enough to take walks, and who can do all those things without K'ing very much. High HR + low K = high average and slugging (Aram, Bonds, Pujols), and high average + high walks = high OBP (Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols). Perfect.

 

So I guess I'm asking, is Wieters the perfect hitter (power + patience + contact all in one)? Or is more a case of a guy who K's plenty, but whose power and patience at present more than justify whatever K's he gets? (Sosa in prime?)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Q3, is he a fairly high-K type hitter? Or is he such a perfect hitter (in college) that he hits for power and gets the walks but still doesn't K at all either?

 

To me, plus power and plus walks can more than justify plenty of K's. But the perfect projection hitting prospect is the guy who can swing hard enough to hit HR's, who can be patient and selective enough to take walks, and who can do all those things without K'ing very much. High HR + low K = high average and slugging (Aram, Bonds, Pujols), and high average + high walks = high OBP (Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols). Perfect.

 

So I guess I'm asking, is Wieters the perfect hitter (power + patience + contact all in one)? Or is more a case of a guy who K's plenty, but whose power and patience at present more than justify whatever K's he gets? (Sosa in prime?)

 

Freshman year: 45 BB/32 K (227 AB - can't get the exact PA)

Sophomore year: 56 BB/39 K (259 AB)

So far junior year: 21 BB/20 K (99 AB)

 

Overall. that's 122 BB/91 BB in 585 ABs.

 

Oh, and his current line is: 31/99, .313/.439/.545/.984.

[texascub]

Q3, is he a fairly high-K type hitter? Or is he such a perfect hitter (in college) that he hits for power and gets the walks but still doesn't K at all either?

 

To me, plus power and plus walks can more than justify plenty of K's. But the perfect projection hitting prospect is the guy who can swing hard enough to hit HR's, who can be patient and selective enough to take walks, and who can do all those things without K'ing very much. High HR + low K = high average and slugging (Aram, Bonds, Pujols), and high average + high walks = high OBP (Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols). Perfect.

 

So I guess I'm asking, is Wieters the perfect hitter (power + patience + contact all in one)? Or is more a case of a guy who K's plenty, but whose power and patience at present more than justify whatever K's he gets? (Sosa in prime?)

 

Freshman year: 45 BB/32 K (227 AB - can't get the exact PA)

Sophomore year: 56 BB/39 K (259 AB)

So far junior year: 21 BB/20 K (99 AB)

 

Overall. that's 122 BB/91 BB in 585 ABs.

 

Oh, and his current line is: 31/99, .313/.439/.545/.984.

 

213 BB and no Ks seems decent to me :lol: He could be a little more aggressive though.

[Guest]

Unless I'm darned sure he's going to stick at catcher, I don't see his bat being overwhelming. That's a great line for a college catcher, but I wouldn't say that he is a sure thing to be an impact bat in the majors regardless of position at this point.