Marshall Now Ahead of Hill

[CubsWin]

To me this doesnt speak well for the Cubs organization. Hendy was saying Pie and Hill are untradable. Not saying Marshall hasnt made a huge leap but is he in that class now or has hill fallen? If the Cubs were walking around all throuhgout the winter valuing Hill so much or giving the illusion they did so if they did trade him the other side would say 'hey good deal we got an untradeable' that illusion is now blown.

 

Im thinking too that if the scouts do like marshall more, its not because of the 2.1 innings its because of all the sessions he is throwing in spring training.

 

A 26 year old in AAA who has MLB potential needs to be traded sooner than later if they think others like marshall are ahead of him. Lots teams would still be happy with a Hill in their rotation. At 27 or 28 its less enticing. Hill is probably also behind Guzman.

This is what happens so often on boards like these. To my recollection, Hendry never said nor was quoted as saying that Hill or Pie were "untradeable" as you are now claiming.

 

What did happen was that he was consistently turning down offers that were including them. There is a huge difference. We don't know who was included in those offers. If the trades that Hendry was turning down were for people like Pierre, Huff, Lugo, etc., then I have no problem with Hendry not trading away Hill and Pie for guys like that.

 

If someone can find me the quote where Hendry said he wouldn't trade Pie or Hill for anyone, then I will happily take it all back and eat my helping of crow. It wouldn't be the first time I was mistaken. But I seriously doubt he ever said that.

 

I dont think i would be the first to claim this. I remember hearing Hendry on the radio tallking about the winter meetings a while back and he said something to the effect of 'every deal starts with hill and pie and those dont go much further'. Now my recollection to that radio interview awhile back could be a bit shady and he probably never used the word 'untradeable' but the dude clearly made the perception they wouldnt be traded unless the deal was really good. To me when you say names publicly and express difficulty doing those deals involving players your are putting up a barrier to get deals done whether you use the word untradeable or not. If im the only one dreaming this happened, ill take it all back.

Yeah, man, I'm not certain either.

 

I was just drawing the line on the use of the word "untradeable" because once that rumor gets accepted as fact (which can happen very easily on a message board), then people start criticizing Hendry for things that he has never actually said or done when there is plenty of stuff that he actually has said and done that is already worthy of criticism.

 

I believe Hendry would trade Hill or Pie if the right deal came along. As to whether he overvalues them, there is plenty of evidence on both sides for a healthy debate. I guess only time will tell.

[craig]

The stock of prospects rises and falls rapidly. Look who fast Dopirak shot up, and how quickly he fell off the table. Bobby Hill seemed golden for a while, then not. Kelton (although a lot of fans seemed to stick with him forever). Felix Sanchez. Obviously Corey. It isn't easy to tell which prospects are going to maintain a high level, or continue to improve to even higher level, and which will regress or stall.

 

Should we trade Pie because there's a good chance that he'll never get any better? He may never be much more than he is now, a high-K anti-walk guy who might be a .270BA-.310OBP-14HR-8SB type player. If he doesn't maintain his excellence from last year, or improve in some ways beyond it, should we look back next year or three years from now and say, "Man, those stupid Cubs, why didn't they know to trade Pie after the 2005 season when his value was maxed?"

 

Should we quick trade Cedeno while he's coming off a .300 season, before he possibly settles in as a low-power-low-walk .260 hitter who makes too many errors? I don't know.

 

I'm just saying, it's awfully tough to know when a guy will keep improving, when he's basically going to plateau, and when he might regress.

 

I think the general policy should be that barring some really big-time offer, that you hold onto the guys who might end up becoming impact players. Understanding that in most cases something will happen so that they don't reach that. Maybe they are due to stall or regress. Maybe they'll never get past whatever is currently limiting them (as proved true with Corey). But I think it's probably good policy to hold the guys you think have at least some kind of decent chance to end up being really good players.

 

To me, that includes Cedeno and Murton and Pie. That includes Guzman and Marshall. That still includes Hill, although I admit I fear that last year was a career year and that his control regressed with cubs and thus far in camp. That includes Pawelek.

 

Personally I don't see Harvey or Dopirak in that group, the contact/vision problem seems too extreme for there to be much realistic chance that they'll get past it. Or patterson, who K's too much to seem very likely to me.

 

I think the comment on Hill/Marshall should be taken less as a slam on Hill then as what it was probably intended to be; a huge compliment to Marshall.

 

I think to some degree the two stand as great contrast players. Many stats people get super fired up about K's, and Hill had them galore. Marshall has gotten his share too, I think, but hardly exceptional like Hill's consistently extraordinary K-rates. The eye-popping K-guy versus the normal K-guy. The control guy versus the wildman. Marshall has always thrown strikes; Hill never has, with the exception of his minor league 2005. We are always hoping that wildmen master control, and sometimes they do. But I suspect that for most wildmen, even when they do have control for a while, it's always a battle and they are always at risk of going wild again. The bombs-away guy versus the keep-it-in-the-park guy. Hill has always given up high HR's; but his K's and WHIP's looked awesome last year. Marshall has neveer given up many HR's, but his WHIPs haven't looked as eye-catching. The fly-ball versus the groundball guy. Hill is a relatively extreme flyball pitcher, Marshall the opposite. Probably which largely relates to the other factors (the HR's, the K's, the control issues...). What's perhaps a little surprising is that often the high-K wildman is the harder thrower; it seems Marshall's fastball is a little bit faster than Hill's. But the difference is more in terms of sink than speed.

 

Seems to me that the Cubs have liked Marshall a lot for a while, but he's not pitched much due to injuries since he made an impact. For me as a prospect watcher, his original scouting was as an 83-88 mph guy; I knew he projected faster, but always wondered if he'd end up with a plus fastball or just a lefty finesse fastball like so many others. One of the positives on him seems to be that his fastball really does now seem to have grown into a big-league asset. Seems to me that an 88-92 mph sinker is pretty good pitch. Combined with control and a plus curveball, and you've got the keys to big-league success. There have also been some positives about his changeup too. Extraordinary stuff? No. But seems to me that the combination of several average-to-above-average pitches with above-average control sums to a above-average big league pitcher, since most guys are below average in something, be that their fastball or breaking ball or control.

[abuck1220]

well, it looks like one of these guys will open the season in the rotation. should be a fun competition to follow.

[rawaction]

well, it looks like one of these guys will open the season in the rotation. should be a fun competition to follow.

 

Huh?

[Geech]

He's referring to the Prior shoulder thing, I think.

[abuck1220]

well, it looks like one of these guys will open the season in the rotation. should be a fun competition to follow.

 

Huh?

 

i'm guessing prior won't be in the rotation to begin the season.

 

z, maddux, williams, rusch, hill/guz/marshall. ew.

[CUBZ99]

well, it looks like one of these guys will open the season in the rotation. should be a fun competition to follow.

 

Huh?

 

i'm guessing prior won't be in the rotation to begin the season.

 

z, maddux, williams, rusch, hill/guz/marshall. ew.

 

Lets hope Guzman can stay healthy for a month or two.

[rawaction]

well, it looks like one of these guys will open the season in the rotation. should be a fun competition to follow.

 

Huh?

 

i'm guessing prior won't be in the rotation to begin the season.

 

z, maddux, williams, rusch, hill/guz/marshall. ew.

 

Oh, that's what I get for staying away from that thread. More afraid of what I was gonna read than anything.

[BigbadB]

I'm in the same boat as you, Raw. I didn't think I'd find what I was hoping to in that thread, so I didn't read it.

 

I'm going to assume Prior is okay, and all these injury rumors are just to better the Cubs odds in Vegas.

[Balsa]

Chicago Cubs pitcher Mark Prior, who had been on a strict program in an attempt to avoid any injury, will have his right shoulder examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum after complaining of soreness before a bullpen session on Tuesday.

 

Cubs.com

[Jon]

According to Andy Mazur, the Cubs are stretching out Marshall by having him pitch in simulated games, possibly to prepare him for a spot in April. I'm not sure I like that with him coming off that finger injury, but I'm also a little surprised that they're thinking that highly of him for a spot in the rotation right out of camp.

[CubsWin]

According to Andy Mazur, the Cubs are stretching out Marshall by having him pitch in simulated games, possibly to prepare him for a spot in April. I'm not sure I like that with him coming off that finger injury, but I'm also a little surprised that they're thinking that highly of him for a spot in the rotation right out of camp.

Of Guz, Hill, Marshall and Ryu, Marshall seems to be throwing the best. It would only make sense that he is the one they would be thinking of as the 5th starter. Things may change between now and April 15th (when that 5th starter will first be needed) but as of now, no one is throwing better than Marshall.

[TXCubsFan]

According to Andy Mazur, the Cubs are stretching out Marshall by having him pitch in simulated games, possibly to prepare him for a spot in April. I'm not sure I like that with him coming off that finger injury, but I'm also a little surprised that they're thinking that highly of him for a spot in the rotation right out of camp.

Of Guz, Hill, Marshall and Ryu, Marshall seems to be throwing the best. It would only make sense that he is the one they would be thinking of as the 5th starter. Things may change between now and April 15th (when that 5th starter will first be needed) but as of now, no one is throwing better than Marshall.

 

I'm not surprised. Guzman is rusty, Hill needs to work on his secondary pitches or become a LOOGY, and Ryu, while impressive in spring training, probably isn't as mature as Marshall and would be better suited for a half season in Iowa before coming to Wrigley. Also, given that Marshall didn't pitch that many innings last year, I think it would be better to use him as a fifth starter now and Ryu later in the season, if Ryu is needed.

[craig]

Makes sense that they should be stretching out Marshall... as well as the other guys. Ryu got stretched out to 3 innings today. Hill hasn't racked up tons of innings, but given how many pitches per inning he's been throwing, his pitch count is probably sufficiently stretched. Hopefully they get Marshall stretched out a bit. And Guzman's done multi-inning stuff with millions of pitches per inning too, so he'd seem to be stretched out a bit also.

 

I don't think it's a matter of deciding who and then stretching out that guy. I think it's more a matter of stretching out all four, and make the choice based on how they are all looking, which could change enormously between now and decision time.

 

Guys like Hill and Guzman haven't looked very sharp in terms of control this spring, but two back-to-back good games and the early stuff can be forgotten pretty fast. That Marshall and Ryu weren't expected to be factors also doesn't matter that much. I want somebody who'll be able to control his stuff now, even if he isn't necessarily the best long-term prospect. It's possible that Ryu and Marshall are ahead of Hill and Guzman in terms of present control.

[frostwyrm]

Hill is getting old and has nothing to prove in the minors and it would be a tragic waste of trade value to make him into a LOOGY. Hendry has already incurred an enormous opportunity cost by not trading Hill so it seems silly not to at least try him as a starter. I don't think 5 or 6 Hill starts would make or break the season.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Hill is getting old and has nothing to prove in the minors and it would be a tragic waste of trade value to make him into a LOOGY. Hendry has already incurred an enormous opportunity cost by not trading Hill so it seems silly not to at least try him as a starter. I don't think 5 or 6 Hill starts would make or break the season.

 

My sentiments exactly.

[CUBZ99]

Hill is getting old and has nothing to prove in the minors and it would be a tragic waste of trade value to make him into a LOOGY. Hendry has already incurred an enormous opportunity cost by not trading Hill so it seems silly not to at least try him as a starter. I don't think 5 or 6 Hill starts would make or break the season.

 

My sentiments exactly.

 

The Cubs playoff hopes have hinged on 1 or 2 games in the past, so it is not necessarily wise to just throw away games. If he gets beat out fairly by Ryu, Marshall or Guzman so be it.

 

If Hill is a waste or they missed out on his inflated trade value then it is unfortunate, but they aren't exactly in the position right now to be giving out charity starts at the start of a new season.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

According to Andy Mazur, the Cubs are stretching out Marshall by having him pitch in simulated games, possibly to prepare him for a spot in April. I'm not sure I like that with him coming off that finger injury, but I'm also a little surprised that they're thinking that highly of him for a spot in the rotation right out of camp.

 

The finger injury was from 2004 and the ensuing offseason. Sean's coming off a shoulder injury that ended his 2005 season prematurely.

[frostwyrm]

Hill is getting old and has nothing to prove in the minors and it would be a tragic waste of trade value to make him into a LOOGY. Hendry has already incurred an enormous opportunity cost by not trading Hill so it seems silly not to at least try him as a starter. I don't think 5 or 6 Hill starts would make or break the season.

 

My sentiments exactly.

 

The Cubs playoff hopes have hinged on 1 or 2 games in the past, so it is not necessarily wise to just throw away games. If he gets beat out fairly by Ryu, Marshall or Guzman so be it.

 

If Hill is a waste or they missed out on his inflated trade value then it is unfortunate, but they aren't exactly in the position right now to be giving out charity starts at the start of a new season.

 

It sure would simplify things if the Cubs just fell out of contention quickly so all these youngsters could pitch in the big leagues.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/Articles/ArticleText.php?ArticleID=111

 

Well, someone seen this coming. :)

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/Articles/ArticleText.php?ArticleID=111

 

Well, someone seen this coming. :)

 

Pinto ahead of Pawelek. :shock:

 

Looks like you're right about Hill though, although ST might just be a fluke (or Hill reverting to pre-2005 levels).

[UK1679666180]

I'd like to see more development from Pawelek before putting him ahead of pitchers like Marshall and Pinto, LHP's at his age with his talents are very rare, but I'd like to see more than glimpses of plus secondary pitches and locking down his mechanics before being ranked in the top 3.

 

His ceiling is likely higher than anyone in the system, including Pie, but at this point, I'd like to see him cont. to progress as well as face tougher comp.

[Productive Outs]

Surprised that Guzman isn't in your top 10 (or raw's), UK. Do his injury issues drop him that far?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Do I get a cookie for saying (last summer) that I like Marshall more and thought he was ahead of Hill?

[UK1679666180]

Surprised that Guzman isn't in your top 10 (or raw's), UK. Do his injury issues drop him that far?

 

Yeah, his inability to stay healthy has hurt him, I'm not a big fan of his follow through in his delivery.

 

When I seen him in Beloit, he showed glimpses of what makes him a top prospect and then you'd see avg. pitches something you's expect from a roster filler.