Rumor: Cubs Looking at Signing Wade Miller

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Miller got hurt yet again last year. What is the extent of his injury, and what is his prognosis, this is what I'd like to know.

 

If he's in Chad Fox land, then I take a pass. But if it's more of a Ryan Dempster or Scott Williamson type of recovery, absolutely he's worth a similar kind of deal. $500K for 2006 and a $2MM option for 2007, that's the exact deal both Demp and Williamson got.

 

I'm not sure why Hendry didn't follow up on his modus operandi here and make a play for Octavio Dotel this winter, that will be a real bonus IMO for whoever ends up with him. Or has he signed at this point?

[daske17]

I'm all for it. As stated before, Hendry seems to like rehab projects. Mike Sirotka, Dempster, Sullivan, Fox, etc...

 

I think Paul Sullivan is beyond rehabilitation.

 

Yeah, I think he meant Williamson.

 

Yeah, I figured as much, but couldn't help getting a dig in at Sullivan.

[fromthestretch]

Miller got hurt yet again last year. What is the extent of his injury, and what is his prognosis, this is what I'd like to know.

 

If he's in Chad Fox land, then I take a pass. But if it's more of a Ryan Dempster or Scott Williamson type of recovery, absolutely he's worth a similar kind of deal. $500K for 2006 and a $2MM option for 2007, that's the exact deal both Demp and Williamson got.

 

I'm not sure why Hendry didn't follow up on his modus operandi here and make a play for Octavio Dotel this winter, that will be a real bonus IMO for whoever ends up with him. Or has he signed at this point?

 

Yanks got Dotel.

[FergieJ31]

The idea of a low base/high incentive contract ... how novel! Too bad the Cubs didn't think of that concept when considering Nomar (or Maggs when he was a FA a year ago) :roll:

 

Unfair. Maggs got a basically guaranteed five years from the Tigers. There is no way we could have, or should have, competed with that.

 

Agree - Maggs was a bad example (I don't think any other team was even close to Det's offer), but my point was that Hendry is not nearly creative enough when it comes to creating incentive-laden contracts for players with a history of injuries -- most recently, Nomar for instance.

 

Hopefully the Wade Miller offer bucks that trend.

[HoopsCubs]

Miller got hurt yet again last year. What is the extent of his injury, and what is his prognosis, this is what I'd like to know.

 

If he's in Chad Fox land, then I take a pass. But if it's more of a Ryan Dempster or Scott Williamson type of recovery, absolutely he's worth a similar kind of deal. $500K for 2006 and a $2MM option for 2007, that's the exact deal both Demp and Williamson got.

 

I'm not sure why Hendry didn't follow up on his modus operandi here and make a play for Octavio Dotel this winter, that will be a real bonus IMO for whoever ends up with him. Or has he signed at this point?

 

Yankees. 1 year and $2M.

[DCNashville]

The idea of a low base/high incentive contract ... how novel! Too bad the Cubs didn't think of that concept when considering Nomar (or Maggs when he was a FA a year ago) :roll:

 

Unfair. Maggs got a basically guaranteed five years from the Tigers. There is no way we could have, or should have, competed with that.

 

Agree - Maggs was a bad example (I don't think any other team was even close to Det's offer), but my point was that Hendry is not nearly creative enough when it comes to creating incentive-laden contracts for players with a history of injuries -- most recently, Nomar for instance.

 

Hopefully the Wade Miller offer bucks that trend.

 

What are you talking about? Dempster and Williamson both fit into the category of low base/high incentive deals you're referring to. Hendry didn't make that sort of deal with Nomar because he burned us once again by getting injured and he's content to give Cedeno his shot.

[FergieJ31]

The idea of a low base/high incentive contract ... how novel! Too bad the Cubs didn't think of that concept when considering Nomar (or Maggs when he was a FA a year ago) :roll:

 

Unfair. Maggs got a basically guaranteed five years from the Tigers. There is no way we could have, or should have, competed with that.

 

Agree - Maggs was a bad example (I don't think any other team was even close to Det's offer), but my point was that Hendry is not nearly creative enough when it comes to creating incentive-laden contracts for players with a history of injuries -- most recently, Nomar for instance.

 

Hopefully the Wade Miller offer bucks that trend.

 

What are you talking about? Dempster and Williamson both fit into the category of low base/high incentive deals you're referring to. Hendry didn't make that sort of deal with Nomar because he burned us once again by getting injured and he's content to give Cedeno his shot.

 

Williamson and Dempster were offered pretty much the same deal: one year at league minimum, $300k + extra $200k if they were activated in '05, and a club option for 2006 for about $2M -- really this more like a plain ol flyer / lottery ticket. There also was a club option that the Cubs would exercise if the pitcher made a full recovery and re-established their effectiveness (the Cubs did exercise their Williamson option, we now know). Those were good deals for the Cubs, to be sure, especially in hindsight, but it's not what I mean by a low base/high incentive offer.

 

If we do make an offer to Miller I hope it's going to be similar in spirit to what Detroit did with Maggs (again -- I'm not suggesting the Cubs should have outbid the Tigers). By all accounts the Tigers calculated his fair value objectively by estimating his WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player). They OVERestimated this number by a wide margin, which is why they badly overpaid in base (and why it's not a good "low base/high incentive" example), but nevertheless his is a good example of the sort of creatively designed contract that would suit the Cubs (or any team) when dealing with a high risk/high reward player:

 

The Tigers could have voided the entire contract if Maggs had missed more than 25 games due to an injury on the same knee that knocked him out in '04. That partially covered the Tigers' short-term risk. The contract is also backloaded with incentives that kick in if he gets (I think) 270 starts or over a 1000 plate appearances in 2007 and 2008. That partially covers the Tigers' long-term risk.

 

It's a creative contract because the circumstances were unusual and the player was high risk/high reward -- not unlike Wade Miller.

 

As for Nomar, that's another debate entirely which has been thoroughly covered on this board. Given that Nomar wanted to stay and was very effective upon return last year (albeit, small sample size), I think the Cubs would have been wise to strike some kind of low base/high incentive deal, and work out a way for him or Cedeno to play 2B -- but it's a moot point now.

[JeffH]

I wouldn't mind giving Miller a Dempster/Williamson type contract, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

Shoulder vs. elbow. Apples and oranges.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

According to ESPNInsider's Rumor Central, the Cubs are listed as a possible suitor for Wade Miller. There's also speculation he could be returning to Houston.

 

Wade Miller's old club in Houston is one of several teams expressing interest in him this winter, reports ESPN Insider Jerry Crasnick. Miller became a free agent last offseason when the Astros declined to tender him a contract. He went 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA with Boston before undergoing surgery in September to repair damage in his right labrum.

Miller probably will sign with a new club sometime next week. There's enough interest that he expects to receive a major-league contract -- most likely with a lot of incentives. If all goes well with his rehab, Miller plans to be pitching by early May.

 

"He should be back to his 2004 form a month into the season," said agent Bob Garber. Miller went 45-25 with Houston from 2001-2003 before going down with a shoulder injury in June 2004.

[Cubzfan64]

Sounds like the kind of guy Hendry would be interested in - I have no problem taking a gamble.

[Laura]

I thought Boston was supposed to have his rights through this next season. Did they non-tender him or something?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I thought Boston was supposed to have his rights through this next season. Did they non-tender him or something?

 

Yeah. They let him go.

[David]

Didn't Hoops scoop this a little while back?

[astrosfan34]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

[Roast]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

 

Oooh, the old inside scoop from a newbie (at least, i dont remember ever seeing him before).

 

Sweet.

[stitchface]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

 

Oooh, the old inside scoop from a newbie (at least, i dont remember ever seeing him before).

 

Sweet.

 

that's not really a scoop. of course, that's true of pedro too.

[Tim]

When will someone suggest moving him to the pen...

 

Vance?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

When will someone suggest moving him to the pen...

 

Vance?

 

Nah...that was my move last year, but with signing Eyre and Howry, Dempster actually working out as a closer, and having Williamson, Wuertz, and Ohman...I'd look to him as a number five starter when healthy.

[oldcubsfan]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

 

Oooh, the old inside scoop from a newbie (at least, i dont remember ever seeing him before).

 

Sweet.

Just because he's new doesn't mean he knows any less or more than anyone else here.

[USSoccer]

When will someone suggest moving him to the pen...

 

Vance?

 

Nah...that was my move last year, but with signing Eyre and Howry, Dempster actually working out as a closer, and having Williamson, Wuertz, and Ohman...I'd look to him as a number five starter when healthy.

 

I think we're better off letting our minor leaguers take up 40 man space than wasting a space on a guy with real signifigant shoulder issues.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Why is Miller worth a risk?

 

He's only 29 years old.

 

Prior to last season these were his ERA/BAA for the previous three seasons.

 

3.35/228

4.13/242

3.28/249

 

He has ability when healthy. I'd sign him to a heavy incentive laden deal and see what he has left. You can never have too much pitching.

[Cubzfan64]

Why is Miller worth a risk?

 

He's only 29 years old.

 

Prior to last season these were his ERA/BAA for the previous three seasons.

 

3.35/228

4.13/242

3.28/249

 

He has ability when healthy. I'd sign him to a heavy incentive laden deal and see what he has left. You can never have too much pitching.

 

And we've come to expect at least one of our starters to go down during the year. I don't see alot of downside to adding him.

[astrosfan34]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

 

Oooh, the old inside scoop from a newbie (at least, i dont remember ever seeing him before).

 

Sweet.

I honestly didn't consider that insider information. It's pretty well known throughout the league. Watch any video of him pitching, and it's pretty obvious that his mechanics can easily lead to injury.

[RockTheIvy]

I have had conversations with Astros medical staff (friends of mine) that say because of his mechanics, he is a walking shoulder injury. Instead of following through with his whole body, he just snaps his arm through, and pretty much stands upright. Putting a lot of money in him, IMO, would be unwise, although he has proven his ability to be effective.

 

Oooh, the old inside scoop from a newbie (at least, i dont remember ever seeing him before).

 

Sweet.

I honestly didn't consider that insider information. It's pretty well known throughout the league. Watch any video of him pitching, and it's pretty obvious that his mechanics can easily lead to injury.

 

Good call.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think the Cubs are going to get Miller and use him for the spare parts that are needed to fix Woods shoulder. Kind of like going to the junkyard and geting an alternator for your car.