Current Roster/Payroll Projects to be $95M

[HoopsCubs]

16 players under contract at $76.3M:

 

5.00 Dempster

3.70 Eyre

4.00 Howry

9.00 Maddux

2.50 Prior

2.75 Rusch

2.00 Williamson

12.00 Wood

4.30 Barrett

1.50 Blanco

8.67 Lee

1.05 Mabry

2.50 Perez

10.50 Ramirez

2.50 Walker

4.33 Jones

 

4 arbitration eligible players at $16.6M (my estimate):

 

6.00 Zambrano

2.30 Hairston

2.80 Patterson

5.50 Pierre

 

6 players under Cubs control (each gets $350K) at $2.1M:

 

2.10 Novoa, Ohman, Williams, Wuertz, Cedeno, Murton

 

So, 26 players at $95M TOTAL (I'm assuming Wood starts the season on the DL).

 

Therefore, with a payroll projected to be $100M to start the year, the Cubs can technically still spend $5M plus the salaries of any players above they trade.

 

So, for example, Tejada's $12M could definitely fit assuming they trade Zambrano and either Walker or Patterson, or Prior, Walker and Patterson; Vidro's $7M or Floyd's $6.5M could fit assuming they trade Hairston, Walker or Patterson.

 

Barring any major trade, Hendry could still dump Walker's $2.5M, Patterson's $2.8M or Hairston's $2.3M for prospects, and still have approx. $7M to find a starter and a reserve right handed OF to give Jones a day-off here and there against a tough lefty.

 

I'm still wondering if Hendry is silently/below the radar going after Jeff Weaver.

 

 

Hoops

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hoops, I was figuring a 105 million payroll this year which would leave 10 more to spend plus the salaries of traded players.

 

I don't really see anyone worth that, but I think we still have a bit of flexibility.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops, I was figuring a 105 million payroll this year which would leave 10 more to spend plus the salaries of traded players.

 

I don't really see anyone worth that, but I think we still have a bit of flexibility.

 

You could be very well right. As a Trib shareholder, I was going more conservative.

[Bull]

Hoops, I was figuring a 105 million payroll this year which would leave 10 more to spend plus the salaries of traded players.

 

I don't really see anyone worth that, but I think we still have a bit of flexibility.

 

You could be very well right. As a Trib shareholder, I was going more conservative.

 

lol. so it's YOUR fault.

[RynoRules]

Hoops, I was figuring a 105 million payroll this year which would leave 10 more to spend plus the salaries of traded players.

 

I don't really see anyone worth that, but I think we still have a bit of flexibility.

 

You could be very well right. As a Trib shareholder, I was going more conservative.

 

How many shares? Got a vote at the Bd meetings?

[HoopsCubs]

How many shares? Got a vote at the Bd meetings?

 

Oh, I wish.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

What about performance bonuses?

 

I bet they'll at least keep 2-3m for midseason pickups.

[HoopsCubs]

What about performance bonuses?

 

I bet they'll at least keep 2-3m for midseason pickups.

 

My guess is that on opening day they will be at $100M, which will grow to $105M in July if they are in the thick of the race, which I expect them to be in.

[kroth1342]

What about Prior being potentially arbitration-eligible? I'd expect a salary raise from the 2.5 you estimated if he is.

[craig]

16 players under contract at $76.3M:...

2.50 Prior

 

4 arbitration eligible players at $16.6M (my estimate):

 

6.00 Zambrano

2.30 Hairston

2.80 Patterson

5.50 Pierre

 

6 players under Cubs control (each gets $350K) at $2.1M:

 

2.10 Novoa, Ohman, Williams, Wuertz, Cedeno, Murton

 

So, 26 players at $95M TOTAL (I'm assuming Wood starts the season on the DL.

 

Hoops, I come out around $98+. Differences:

1. Prior is eligible for arbitration, so will opt out of your $2.5-list value. Bruce Miles and Paul Sullivan have both stated in print that Prior *is* eligible to opt out this year, it being his first in arbitration. I estiimate him at $4.5. He's been good, and his service time is beyond just 3 years, he's well on his way toward 4 years.

 

2. Will Ohman is also eligible for arbitration. So I'd push him up near $1.

 

3. Jerome Williams has been a reasonably effective rotation pitcher. In past, when the Cubs have had rotation pitchers, they've paid them more than minimum wage. Wood and Prior both got more than $0.35 during their pre-arb years. So I anticipate that Williams may also get more than $0.35.

 

4. Given the way salaries of run this winter, which the arbitration process will consider, I have Pierre at $6 rather than $5.5. We'll see, of course.

 

$95, $98.8, I don't think it matters a great deal. Qualititatively the picture seems the same: they're under $100, they have cash to afford a good player if they can find one (Tejada or somebody else), and they certainly have cash to afford a reserve outfielder at better than minimum wage.

 

The only difference is that if you calculate low enough ($95), you might almost conclude that they have **so** much budget left that they will almost certainly do something. That they wouldn't possible consider coming in $5-10 million under budget. At $98.8, you can reason that they may do nothing more than make a bench move or three, perhaps sign the Dempster/Williamson of the year, and call it quits without changing any starters.

 

But I certainly agree that the budget seems low enough that you can't rule out the Tejada rumors on budget basis alone.

[ThePenguin11]

Do we even know what the 'budget' is? By this I mean the actual amount that the Cubs are willing to spend on 'payroll' before the start of the 2006 season. I see a lot of people referring to the amount spent thus far the 'budget'. That is the current 'payroll' figure.

 

As is the case with most any company, budgets are subject to revisions based on the success or failure during a given period of time. Basically what this means is that if the Cubs are going great through June/July and the Cubs see that their investment is worth 'stretching' the original proposed budget, they will simply revise it in order to put them in a better position to capitalize on new opportunities, such as a world championship run.

[bc2k]

I asked this before, but I don't know the answer: Does Dusty Baker's salary get included in the budget?

[goonys evil twin]

I asked this before, but I don't know the answer: Does Dusty Baker's salary get included in the budget?

 

It's in the team's budget, but it's not included in most payroll discussions by third parties.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops, I come out around $98+. Differences:

1. Prior is eligible for arbitration, so will opt out of your $2.5-list value. Bruce Miles and Paul Sullivan have both stated in print that Prior *is* eligible to opt out this year, it being his first in arbitration. I estiimate him at $4.5. He's been good, and his service time is beyond just 3 years, he's well on his way toward 4 years.

 

2. Will Ohman is also eligible for arbitration. So I'd push him up near $1.

 

3. Jerome Williams has been a reasonably effective rotation pitcher. In past, when the Cubs have had rotation pitchers, they've paid them more than minimum wage. Wood and Prior both got more than $0.35 during their pre-arb years. So I anticipate that Williams may also get more than $0.35.

 

4. Given the way salaries of run this winter, which the arbitration process will consider, I have Pierre at $6 rather than $5.5. We'll see, of course.

 

$95, $98.8, I don't think it matters a great deal. Qualititatively the picture seems the same: they're under $100, they have cash to afford a good player if they can find one (Tejada or somebody else), and they certainly have cash to afford a reserve outfielder at better than minimum wage.

 

The only difference is that if you calculate low enough ($95), you might almost conclude that they have **so** much budget left that they will almost certainly do something. That they wouldn't possible consider coming in $5-10 million under budget. At $98.8, you can reason that they may do nothing more than make a bench move or three, perhaps sign the Dempster/Williamson of the year, and call it quits without changing any starters.

 

But I certainly agree that the budget seems low enough that you can't rule out the Tejada rumors on budget basis alone.

 

 

Your comments are all fair. I will adjust my sreadsheet accordingly.

[JeffH]

Hoops, a couple of other minor corrections:

 

Mabry is $1.075, not $1.05.

 

Lee is at $9.42 after earning a $0.75 escalation in his 2006 salary by virtue of his third place finish in the NL MVP voting.

[AramisRamirez]

im thrilled to pay wood and uncle greg $21M this year, absolutely thrilled.

 

here is what we're looking at:

 

wood: 88 IP, 2-4, 4.88 ERA

 

uncle greg: 206 IP, 13-17, 4.61 ERA, 48 mph fastball

 

who's hyped? when wood and uncle greg are on the mound, we get the pleasure of seeing jacque jones bat .247 in the 5th hole. or neifi perez batting 2nd and starting at short stop.

 

wooo hooo!!!!! (kills himself)

[ltb]

im thrilled to pay wood and uncle greg $21M this year, absolutely thrilled.

 

here is what we're looking at:

 

wood: 88 IP, 2-4, 4.88 ERA

 

uncle greg: 206 IP, 13-17, 4.61 ERA, 48 mph fastball

 

who's hyped? when wood and uncle greg are on the mound, we get the pleasure of seeing jacque jones bat .247 in the 5th hole. or neifi perez batting 2nd and starting at short stop.

 

wooo hooo!!!!! (kills himself)

 

those stat predictions are based on massive amounts of analysis you did, right? :roll:

[SouthSideRyan]

Maddux hasn't had a below average year since the 1st time he was with the Cubs. In today's insane pitching market, he's probably priced just about where he shoudl be.

[wilk]

Ohman is arbitration eligible, Prior's contract is for 3.55M but he's also eligible to opt out for arbitration, Lee escalates $9.42M for his MVP votes.

 

EDIT: Oops, I didn't see that this was already pointed out.

[coolpoppa]

Did I see Weaver's name mentioned? Sorry...excuse me....I just threw up in my mouth a little.

[AramisRamirez]

 

those stat predictions are based on massive amounts of analysis you did, right? :roll:

 

because real men their eyes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

because real men use their eyes.

 

I'm going to assume that's what you meant.

 

Can you tell the difference between two hitters by using your eyes when the difference in them is one hit every 2 weeks?

[CubfaninCA]

im thrilled to pay wood and uncle greg $21M this year, absolutely thrilled.

 

here is what we're looking at:

 

wood: 88 IP, 2-4, 4.88 ERA

 

uncle greg: 206 IP, 13-17, 4.61 ERA, 48 mph fastball

 

who's hyped? when wood and uncle greg are on the mound, we get the pleasure of seeing jacque jones bat .247 in the 5th hole. or neifi perez batting 2nd and starting at short stop.

 

wooo hooo!!!!! (kills himself)

 

I can see that ERA & IP for Maddux. Not sure about the record though. Have to see if the Tejada trade goes through. A 4.50 or so ERA isn't bad for a #5.

 

I don't have high hopes w/ Wood, but I'm expecting better numbers. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jerome Williams post a 3.80 ERA.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

im thrilled to pay wood and uncle greg $21M this year, absolutely thrilled.

 

here is what we're looking at:

 

wood: 88 IP, 2-4, 4.88 ERA

 

uncle greg: 206 IP, 13-17, 4.61 ERA, 48 mph fastball

 

who's hyped? when wood and uncle greg are on the mound, we get the pleasure of seeing jacque jones bat .247 in the 5th hole. or neifi perez batting 2nd and starting at short stop.

 

wooo hooo!!!!! (kills himself)

 

Hyperbole is not your friend.

[BigbadB]

If Maddux kept the ball in the yard, he could easily yield a 4.00 ERA.

 

In April of last year, he had a 4.20 ERA. In May, he had a 3.99. In July of last year, he posted a 4.15 ERA. In Aug, he posted a 3.55 and in Sept, he posted a 3.07

 

His June was the brutal month, with a 6.48 ERA. Interestingly enough, he went 4-2 during that month.