Murton's success a dangerous assumption

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And for Rookies with 350 PAs that line would put him just behind Jonny Gomes and just ahead of Iguchi in 8th place.

 

IF the Cubs could get more power production from either RF or SS I could live that line. Especially if he demonstrates a little more pop and cracks the .800 OPS mark.

 

Something like .280/.340/.470

 

I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

 

Murton could barely put up a .190 IsoP in college, and aside from his brief MLB stint, hasn't been within 35-40 points of that mark in his professional career. I don't think it's very feasible for him to make that jump in power. IMO, his best bet for higher production is continued luck/ability with Balls in play combined with a boost in power. Something like .300/.360/.450.

[Backtobanks]

I'm a firm believer in not only Murton, but Cedeno too. I think Murton will have a long and solid career because he makes good contact and studies the game. Murton will end up an excellent #2 hitter and career averages of .290 with 20-25 HRs. is what I expect. I predict Cedeno will end up an All-Star (hopefully, with the Cubs) and will match Furcal's numbers within 2-3 years. Now if only Dusty will let them play on a regular basis and work their way through a slump or a bad day.

[Mizzou]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

Just out of curiousity, what would be considered an non-subpar OPS to you for each position?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So, one can probably expect a line much closer to .280/.340/.420 from Murton next year than his line from last year, which is decidedly subpar from a LF.

 

Just out of curiousity, what would be considered an non-subpar OPS to you for each position?

 

Approximately

 

C: 740

1B: 800

2B: 750

SS: 730

3B: 775(kinda tough, since there's a large group of good production, but a bit of a gap)

CF: 750

Corner OF: 800

 

Tough to tell for some positions, but that's a decent estimate IMO.

[Diffusion]

It's absolutely true that .280/.340/.440 would be slightly below-average production from left field. But when you consider that Murton will be making a way, way below-average salary, and that he'd be accumulating major league experience in the process that should prove a stepping stone to greater success, the Cubs ought to be absolutely delighted if they get .280/.340/.440 over a full 2006 season out of a left fielder called Matt Murton. Absolutely delighted.

 

Obviously, the fact that Murton and Cedeno are cheap is only really relevant if the money that could have otherwise been spent at LF or SS is ploughed into the team elsewhere, and so it's Hendry's progative that he does so, and by far the best way of doing that would be to aim as high as possible in right field. Likewise, it's pointless tolerating the first few months or years of a young player's performance, which isn't likely to be particularly great as he acclimatises to the majors, if you don't then reap the rewards once the player's matured and developed. That means that if Murton and Cedeno are given the job in 2006, it ought to be with a view towards the long-term.

[Diffusion]

Just out of curiousity, what would be considered an non-subpar OPS to you for each position?

 

Approximately

 

C: 740

1B: 800

2B: 750

SS: 730

3B: 775(kinda tough, since there's a large group of good production, but a bit of a gap)

CF: 750

Corner OF: 800

 

Tough to tell for some positions, but that's a decent estimate IMO.

 

Personally, here's what I would be aiming for as a minimum from each position:

 

1B, LF, RF: .360/.475

3B: .350/.450

2B, CF: .340/.425

C, SS: .330/.400

[10man]

That means that if Murton and Cedeno are given the job in 2006, it ought to be with a view towards the long-term.

Totally agree. I give Murton a better probability of being a successful long-term bigleaguer than say Corey or even Pie for the simple fact that Matt already has good plate discipline. Power is something that can be developed/grown into.

[rawaction]

And for Rookies with 350 PAs that line would put him just behind Jonny Gomes and just ahead of Iguchi in 8th place.

 

IF the Cubs could get more power production from either RF or SS I could live that line. Especially if he demonstrates a little more pop and cracks the .800 OPS mark.

 

Something like .280/.340/.470

 

I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

 

Murton could barely put up a .190 IsoP in college, and aside from his brief MLB stint, hasn't been within 35-40 points of that mark in his professional career. I don't think it's very feasible for him to make that jump in power. IMO, his best bet for higher production is continued luck/ability with Balls in play combined with a boost in power. Something like .300/.360/.450.

 

You make very good points, but I'd be interested to see something on minor league power numbers vs. major league ones. Murton hit for much more power in a limited sample size, but just how abnormal is that? Plenty of young players have come into the league and had an increase in power numbers Bay and Sizemore stick out. Plenty others have been able to at least maintain their minor league power production.

 

Despite the fact that the pitching is much better at the major league level, I believe that it is strongly possible that HR power (and maybe XBHs as a whole) is easier to come by at the ML level than it is in the majority of minor leagues.

 

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I think Murton playing 40 games with the wind blowing out in Wrigley, 8 in MMP, 8 in GABP, 8 in Miller, and a few games Colorado, Philly, Cleveland will enable him to hit for more power than he showed in cavernous parks in the Florida State and Southern Leagues.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And for Rookies with 350 PAs that line would put him just behind Jonny Gomes and just ahead of Iguchi in 8th place.

 

IF the Cubs could get more power production from either RF or SS I could live that line. Especially if he demonstrates a little more pop and cracks the .800 OPS mark.

 

Something like .280/.340/.470

 

I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

 

Murton could barely put up a .190 IsoP in college, and aside from his brief MLB stint, hasn't been within 35-40 points of that mark in his professional career. I don't think it's very feasible for him to make that jump in power. IMO, his best bet for higher production is continued luck/ability with Balls in play combined with a boost in power. Something like .300/.360/.450.

 

You make very good points, but I'd be interested to see something on minor league power numbers vs. major league ones. Murton hit for much more power in a limited sample size, but just how abnormal is that? Plenty of young players have come into the league and had an increase in power numbers Bay and Sizemore stick out. Plenty others have been able to at least maintain their minor league power production.

 

Despite the fact that the pitching is much better at the major league level, I believe that it is strongly possible that HR power (and maybe XBHs as a whole) is easier to come by at the ML level than it is in the majority of minor leagues.

 

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I think Murton playing 40 games with the wind blowing out in Wrigley, 8 in MMP, 8 in GABP, 8 in Miller, and a few games Colorado, Philly, Cleveland will enable him to hit for more power than he showed in cavernous parks in the Florida State and Southern Leagues.

 

That's certainly possible, and Murton's been rumored to put on a BP show, so it's not like he's without potential to hit for power. My point is just to temper some of the expectations with Murton. If he does improve on his past IsoP numbers, fantastic, but it shouldn't surprise anyone in the slightest if he doesn't.

[Roast]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

You are a sick, sick man.

[Dr. Cub]

I have to agree with some of the others that have posted in this thread about the strong possibility of Murton having a bit of a decline in his numbers. Checking into some numbers, I found that last year the Cubs produced the following numbers at LF, CF, and RF, respectively: .738 OPS, .643 OPS, and a .757 OPS. If Murton fell into the .760 OPS range, and Pierre fell from his career average OPS by .020, and we got JJ production from last year in RF, we would still have an increase of .103 in OPS from our outfield. I don't really know how these numbers make me feel. At first I was excited, then I cried because of how putrid our OF was last year. Then I was sad because even with the increase the OF offense is likely to be horrible. Finally, I threw up at the thought of a team with our large payroll and minimal production from it.

[SouthSideRyan]

This thread is depressing.

[CuseCubFan69]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

You are a sick, sick man.

 

Me or Dusty? There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

[SouthSideRyan]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

You are a sick, sick man.

 

Me or Dusty? There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

I'm really getting sick of pseudo-defending Dusty on this and Mabry won't hit 270 or above so there's no use betting, but I would bet my (admittedly very small) bank account on Mabry getting fewer than 450 ABs this year. Hollandsworth's ABs over a 162 game period last year wouldn't have been 450 and he had a season of good #s for Dusty, and Dusty repeatedly saying he earned the chance. Dusty has already said Mabry is a bench guy, and when Dusty doesn't even give the vet the ol earned his chance, then you know he ain't playing.

[CuseCubFan69]

There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

I'm really getting sick of pseudo-defending Dusty on this and Mabry won't hit 270 or above so there's no use betting, but I would bet my (admittedly very small) bank account on Mabry getting fewer than 450 ABs this year. Hollandsworth's ABs over a 162 game period last year wouldn't have been 450 and he had a season of good #s for Dusty, and Dusty repeatedly saying he earned the chance. Dusty has already said Mabry is a bench guy, and when Dusty doesn't even give the vet the ol earned his chance, then you know he ain't playing.

 

You really think if Holla was hitting 270 or better he would have come out of the lineup? He was terrible and Baker kept him in there and there is no doubt in my mind that Baker will do the same with Mabry, especially if the Cubs do not aquire a left bat for right. Dusty says a lot of things but he usually goes back to doing the things he is comfortable with and that's playing the vets.

[frostwyrm]

I'm really getting sick of pseudo-defending Dusty on this and Mabry won't hit 270 or above so there's no use betting, but I would bet my (admittedly very small) bank account on Mabry getting fewer than 450 ABs this year..

 

There is a decent chance Mabry could bat .270 vs. RHP's, which is all it would take to make Dusty consider an L/R platoon. If Murton has a bad April vs. RHP's and Mabry has a good one I guarantee you things will get ugly. 450 AB's is not outside the realm of possiblity, since a straight L/R platoon heavily favors the lefty.

[goonys evil twin]

There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

I'm really getting sick of pseudo-defending Dusty on this and Mabry won't hit 270 or above so there's no use betting, but I would bet my (admittedly very small) bank account on Mabry getting fewer than 450 ABs this year. Hollandsworth's ABs over a 162 game period last year wouldn't have been 450 and he had a season of good #s for Dusty, and Dusty repeatedly saying he earned the chance. Dusty has already said Mabry is a bench guy, and when Dusty doesn't even give the vet the ol earned his chance, then you know he ain't playing.

 

You really think if Holla was hitting 270 or better he would have come out of the lineup? He was terrible and Baker kept him in there and there is no doubt in my mind that Baker will do the same with Mabry, especially if the Cubs do not aquire a left bat for right. Dusty says a lot of things but he usually goes back to doing the things he is comfortable with and that's playing the vets.

 

I have little doubt that Baker will properly limit Mabry's PA, but I don't think 450 is realistic. Anything over 200, though, is too much.

[frostwyrm]

There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

I'm really getting sick of pseudo-defending Dusty on this and Mabry won't hit 270 or above so there's no use betting, but I would bet my (admittedly very small) bank account on Mabry getting fewer than 450 ABs this year. Hollandsworth's ABs over a 162 game period last year wouldn't have been 450 and he had a season of good #s for Dusty, and Dusty repeatedly saying he earned the chance. Dusty has already said Mabry is a bench guy, and when Dusty doesn't even give the vet the ol earned his chance, then you know he ain't playing.

 

You really think if Holla was hitting 270 or better he would have come out of the lineup? He was terrible and Baker kept him in there and there is no doubt in my mind that Baker will do the same with Mabry, especially if the Cubs do not aquire a left bat for right. Dusty says a lot of things but he usually goes back to doing the things he is comfortable with and that's playing the vets.

 

I have little doubt that Baker will properly limit Mabry's PA, but I don't think 450 is realistic. Anything over 200, though, is too much.

 

I don't think Dusty is eager to start but Mabry, but it all comes down to Murton's performance vs. RH pitching. I'm going to be very tense those first few weeks every time Matty starts vs. an RHP.

[RockTheIvy]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

You are a sick, sick man.

 

Me or Dusty? There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

If Mabry is hitting above .270, he could be a decent player.[/i]

[abuck1220]

So, the 900+ OPS is a fluke? He's going to post numbers nearly 200 points lower? 800 is his ceiling? That's a load. He puts up a 907 in his first sniff of the bigs, and that's not good enough for you? No possibility of him actually getting better with experience or putting up those numbers consistently with experience? I don't care if his numbers are driven by BABIP or anything else, results are what impress me more.

 

Murton had a .342 BABIP in the big leagues last year(his AA BABIP was an obscene .376 by my calculations, completely unsustainable). Only 7 players in each league were able to do that last year and qualify for a batting title, and they are some of the best hitters in the game, or at least ones with styles conducive to a high BABIP(Wily Taveras doing his Juan Pierre impersonation). It's completely unreasonable to expect Murton to duplicate that.

 

Murton is here to stay, and I'm guessing his OPS will be more in the 850-900 range consistently. I really don't see him struggling enough to give Dusty a reason to keep him out of the lineup. Murton is the type of hitter that this team has been lacking for too long (a good one). Remember, he was drafted by the BoSox, not the Cubs. He's bound to be good.

 

how much do you want to bet that murton won't put up a .900 OPS next year? that's better than sheffield, burrell, kent, abreu, and tejada put up on 2005. putting up a .900 OPS would put him on the verge of the top 10 in the AL. if he posts a .370 OBP (which is optimistic, to say the least), he'd have to outslug the 2005 versions of berkman, david wright, kent, floyd, carlos lee and abreu to reach .900. i like the kid, and i think he should be starting in lf, but you are being a little more than optimistic w/ those projections. of course, if he does it, i'll be ecstatic.

 

people here are as quick to hail a prospect a savior after a month of great big league play as they are to dismiss a prospect after a month of bad big league play.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

While I'm happy that Murton seems to be the de facto LF in 2006, I have great fears about his success. With the RF options dwindling a CF who isn't being paid to drive in runs, any shortcomings by Murton will be disasterous. There must be tremendous pressure on him, especially if the Cubs end up with Jones or Encarnacion in RF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this entire OF has fewer than 125-150 RBI combined next year.

 

Don't worry....Dusty will take of that problem for you in regards to Murton. Mabry will be playing LF for the majority of the games until he hits below 200 and then he'll just platoon with Murton.

 

You are a sick, sick man.

 

Me or Dusty? There is no doubt in my mind if Mabry hits 270 or above he will be the starting LF for the Cubs in 06 and get at least 450 AB's.

 

If Mabry is hitting above .270, he could be a decent player.[/i]

 

No better than Murton's likely to be. If Mabry's hitting .270, then he's probably going to be around a .270/.335/.425 line, give or take. We can get that from Murton with the chance that he could be better.

[USSoccer]

I'm more concerned with Dusty underplaying Cedeno than with him underplaying Murton.

[stitchface]

You are correct that murton needs to hit for the offense to be successful. what I don't agree with is the dangerous assumption because it implies we should look at other options. this team has enough other holes to fill to not worry about murton. if necesaary, they can make an in-season trade but at this time I think Hendry shouldn't be worrying about murton nearly so much as RF.