Why so down on Pierre?

[Sarcastic]

Player A

2004 Hit .326 .374 .407 781

 

2005 Hit .276 .326 .354 680

 

Player B

2004 Hit .303 .378 .397 775

 

2005 Hit .261 .336 .368 704

 

Player A has a 73% career steal success rate

 

Player B has a 68% career steal success rate

 

Player A will make 7-8M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player B will make 3M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player A will cost you some good talent to acquire

 

Player B is already on your roster

 

Jerry Hairston wouldn't be a terrible option, but I think looking only at the last two years skews the data. 2004 was Hairston's best year, and 2005 was Pierre's worst.

 

Their career lines are:

 

.261/.334/.371 and

.305/.355/.375

 

Pierre's OBP and BA are significantly better than Hairston's. A smaller advantage of Pierre's is that Hairston is pretty much worthless for stealing bases, while Pierre can steal quite a few bases with at least a decent SB%.

 

Also, how much talent do you really think it will take to get Pierre? I agree that giving up real talent for him is a bad idea, but we don't really know the terms of any deal yet.

[Gunned]

Player A

2004 Hit .326 .374 .407 781

 

2005 Hit .276 .326 .354 680

 

Player B

2004 Hit .303 .378 .397 775

 

2005 Hit .261 .336 .368 704

 

Player A has a 73% career steal success rate

 

Player B has a 68% career steal success rate

 

Player A will make 7-8M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player B will make 3M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player A will cost you some good talent to acquire

 

Player B is already on your roster

 

Player A's games played since 2000: 51, 156, 152, 162, 162, 162

 

Player B's games played since 2000: 49, 159, 122, 58, 86, 114

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Player A

2004 Hit .326 .374 .407 781

 

2005 Hit .276 .326 .354 680

 

Player B

2004 Hit .303 .378 .397 775

 

2005 Hit .261 .336 .368 704

 

Player A has a 73% career steal success rate

 

Player B has a 68% career steal success rate

 

Player A will make 7-8M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player B will make 3M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player A will cost you some good talent to acquire

 

Player B is already on your roster

 

Player A's games played since 2000: 51, 156, 152, 162, 162, 162

 

Player B's games played since 2000: 49, 159, 122, 58, 86, 114

 

starting Player B keeps Neifi off the field.

[Sarcastic]

starting Player B keeps Neifi off the field.

 

That's a nice bonus. How?

[Joe_Cub]

does starting player a keep corey off the field?

[USSoccer]

I'm not down on Pierre; I just don't think he's worth more than Patterson, Mitre and a Rule 5 guy.

[Gunned]

Player B is Hairston, not Walker.

[UMFan83]

Is anyone not thrilled with the idea of getting two fast guys with slighty above average OBPs to put at the top of the lineup?

 

Isn't that exactly what Dusty would want?

 

Also how does it help to get rid of a potential .900 OPS and a potential .800 OPS and replace them with a player with around .770 OPS and one with a sub .700 OPS last year

 

Obviously a high SLG is not of high importance at the top of the order, but overall in the lineup we lost Alou and Sosa last year, Nomar and Walker this year, where is the power coming from outside of Lee and Ramirez??

Edited November 11, 2005 by UMFan83

[erik316wttn]

OBP, SLG, SB%, K/BB, VORP

 

Pierre is a life time 267/363 in SB for 74%.

 

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

Pierre's K/BB ratio is 211/226. While thats not HOF worthy, his speed and his ability to make contact really helps him. Anytime he makes contact on the ground he can be a threat.

 

Pierre would be a tremendous improvemtn over anything the Cubs have had at the top of the order recently.

 

Bravo!

 

He's not the best option out there, but he's a heck of a lot better than any option we currently have. Yes, maybe his CS% isn't where it should be, but his speed can be beneficial in legging out a ground ball, or taking the extra base. I don't think we should pass on him because he gets thrown out a few more times per year trying to steal second base than he should.

 

I'll take 200 hits a year at the top of the order.

[Sarcastic]

Is anyone not thrilled with the idea of getting two fast guys with slighty above average OBPs to put at the top of the lineup?

 

Isn't that exactly what Dusty would want?

 

It would be much better than having two guys who can never get on base only one of which has much speed to speak of. It doesn't matter if it is what Dusty wants or not, Furcal and Pierre would be a real improvement over Niefi and Patterson. Also, I think that if we got those two, Dusty would be less inclined to EVER let Niefi bat near the top of the lineup.

 

I'd prefer a leadoff hitter with a .400+ OBP also, but where could the Cubs get their hands on one of those?

[Joe_Cub]

Is anyone not thrilled with the idea of getting two fast guys with slighty above average OBPs to put at the top of the lineup?

 

Isn't that exactly what Dusty would want?

 

Also how does it help to get rid of a potential .900 OPS and a potential .800 OPS and replace them with a player with around .770 OPS and one with a sub .700 OPS last year

 

can the new dreaded duo do worse than the old dreaded duo ath the top of the lineup?

 

I'd rather keep walker and sitll kind of hope we do. I don't know about nomar he just doesn't seem to fit anywhere but man he can hit.

[UMFan83]

Is anyone not thrilled with the idea of getting two fast guys with slighty above average OBPs to put at the top of the lineup?

 

Isn't that exactly what Dusty would want?

 

It would be much better than having two guys who can never get on base only one of which has much speed to speak of. It doesn't matter if it is what Dusty wants or not, Furcal and Pierre would be a real improvement over Niefi and Patterson. Also, I think that if we got those two, Dusty would be less inclined to EVER let Niefi bat near the top of the lineup.

 

I'd prefer a leadoff hitter with a .400+ OBP also, but where could the Cubs get their hands on one of those?

 

Well there's Matt Law- oh wait nevermind

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Juan Pierre does not strike out. He runs very fast. He makes things happen during his at-bats. How many times have we watched Cubs players flail away without a plan at the plate, stranding runners, not moving the guy over.

 

The money arguments being made are silly, we've already seen Hendry doesn't care about keeping a tight budget given the $$ he shelled out to Macias and Mercker and Neifi and Rusch and other deadbeats. So Juan Pierre costs you $6MM or $7MM for one year, big deal. The Cubs can afford it. And if you don't like what he brings to the team, let him walk to free agency for 2007.

 

I don't deny that Milton Bradley, or Coco Crisp, or Grady Sizemore, or maybe even Mike Cameron would be better trade options for CF. But to argue Pierre wouldn't incrementally improve this Cubs team is just plain wrong. And there is the distinct possibility he could DRAMATICALLY improve this team.

 

If Pierre is who Hendry wants, and he makes it happen, then I support that. Anything to keep Corey off the field, and Neifi out of the #2 hole, is a good thing. Assuming we sign Furcal, of course....

[BigbadB]

I don't see all that much negativity about Pierre. But, I understand the frustration of anyone who is.

 

We aren't as "groupthink" as some might think.

 

I happen to like the idea of Pierre and Furcal at the top of the line up, IF Pierre doesn't cost too much in trade. But, RF still needs to be addressed. I prefer Giles, but would settle for Bradley.

 

I just want to see .350 or better OBP throughout the line up. With the payroll that Hendry has to work with, there should be no reason to not have that in your line up.

 

I'm not so worried about power. Power is good. But, getting people on base to drive in is even better. Leading the league in home runs the last several years hasn't produced anything of note. Having lousy lead off hitters has pushed us even further away from anything of note.

[JonnyRed]

 

Obviously a high SLG is not of high importance at the top of the order, but overall in the lineup we lost Alou and Sosa last year, Nomar and Walker this year, where is the power coming from outside of Lee and Ramirez??

 

How many 35 HR guys do you need in the lineup? The Sox had two, and it seemed to work for them.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

You should care what his SLG is. SLG isn't just driving runners in, it's the ability to get around the bases without the help of your teammates. The more you can do that, the more likely you are to score. That's why Walker with a .350/.450 OBP/SLG is more valuable than Pierre putting up .365/.390. Sure Pierre steals more bases, but if we include that(which is unfair to begin with because a double is more valuable than a single and a steal) then his OBP should be deducted for his CS%. In addition to all of this, Pierre is coming off of the worst season of his career. Even at his best Pierre isn't great. He'll put up a decent OBP, but some of that is mitigated with his average to mediocre SB%; he is terrible at hitting for extra bases. He's not a good defender. I can probably name a half dozen players off the top of my head that could be or are available that would be as good or better options(Bradley, Michaels, Crisp, GMJ, Cameron, Giles). He shouldn't be a top priority.

[nilodnayr]

Player A

2004 Hit .326 .374 .407 781

 

2005 Hit .276 .326 .354 680

 

Player B

2004 Hit .303 .378 .397 775

 

2005 Hit .261 .336 .368 704

 

Player A has a 73% career steal success rate

 

Player B has a 68% career steal success rate

 

Player A will make 7-8M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player B will make 3M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player A will cost you some good talent to acquire

 

Player B is already on your roster

 

Jerry Hairston wouldn't be a terrible option, but I think looking only at the last two years skews the data. 2004 was Hairston's best year, and 2005 was Pierre's worst.

 

Their career lines are:

 

.261/.334/.371 and

.305/.355/.375

 

Pierre's OBP and BA are significantly better than Hairston's. A smaller advantage of Pierre's is that Hairston is pretty much worthless for stealing bases, while Pierre can steal quite a few bases with at least a decent SB%.

 

Also, how much talent do you really think it will take to get Pierre? I agree that giving up real talent for him is a bad idea, but we don't really know the terms of any deal yet.

 

Juan Pierre's career on the road

 

2001 (outside of coors) 321/365/421/786

2002 (outside of coors) 247/297/297/594

2003 (outside pro player)294/346/358/704

2004 (outside pro player)314/361/399/760

2005 (outside pro player)264/311/339/650

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre at 5 or 6 million works. Heck everyone's grossly overpaid in baseball, but this is about market rate for someone who has put up Pierre's number over the past several years. If Pierre put up another .370 obp season last year, I could see $8 million for next year, but he didn't so maybe the Cubs catch a break and get him @ a little bit of a discount.

 

Get Furcal signed right away and then pull off a deal for Pierre asap, and Giles may show more interest in the Cubs...

[Sarcastic]

Juan Pierre's career on the road

 

2001 (outside of coors) 321/365/421/786

2002 (outside of coors) 247/297/297/594

2003 (outside pro player)294/346/358/704

2004 (outside pro player)314/361/399/760

2005 (outside pro player)264/311/339/650

 

How much faith do you really think ought to be put into road splits? Moving from Pro Player to Wrigley Field will have an effect, but considering how much Pierre's (and pretty much all other player's) road splits fluctuate from year to year, are they really worth looking at seriously?

 

EDIT: I see that in the last four years, his road splits have been at least a bit worse than what he's done at home. Still, this doesn't necessarily mean anything. If we are going to talk about ballpark effects, I'd rather look at his park adjusted numbers than his home/road splits.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd be fine with Pierre if the Cubs don't overpay for him. He has some value as a leadoff man and a potential speed guy. He's still relatively young. I believe next year is his contract year (could be mistaken on this one) and typically guys tend to put a little bit of extra effort into things in those scenarios.

 

He's not some one I'd be thrilled with, but I'd be okay with the Cubs getting him using a modest package.

 

Me too. I just wonder how much the Cubs will be interested in Pierre if they sign Furcal right away.

 

Pierre reminds me of Mickey Rivers .

[Bruno7481]

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

You should care what his SLG is. SLG isn't just driving runners in, it's the ability to get around the bases without the help of your teammates. The more you can do that, the more likely you are to score. That's why Walker with a .350/.450 OBP/SLG is more valuable than Pierre putting up .365/.390. Sure Pierre steals more bases, but if we include that(which is unfair to begin with because a double is more valuable than a single and a steal) then his OBP should be deducted for his CS%. In addition to all of this, Pierre is coming off of the worst season of his career. Even at his best Pierre isn't great. He'll put up a decent OBP, but some of that is mitigated with his average to mediocre SB%; he is terrible at hitting for extra bases. He's not a good defender. I can probably name a half dozen players off the top of my head that could be or are available that would be as good or better options(Bradley, Michaels, Crisp, GMJ, Cameron, Giles). He shouldn't be a top priority.

 

An average player doesn't put up 200 hits a year. I'm not saying Pierre is the best option out there. I'm saying he would help this team.

 

I wouldn't say he isn't a good defender, yeah he has a weak arm. But he pretty good range in CF.

 

a 74% SB% is mediocre? He still gets 50+ a year.

 

Take your example about getting to second base, scoring position. Pierre had 19 doubles and 57 SB last year, in his down year. So he was responsible for gettin into scoring position 76 times. Walker had 25 doubles and 1 SB. Do the math, Pierre gets in to position to score a lot, I didn't even include his triples.

 

I'm not trying to compare Walker to Pierre because they are totally different players, just used him as a refrence point. I think Pierre would be a good addition because of the reasons stated above. The Cubs have been terrible at scoring runs unless it comes form a HR. Getting Pierre, or guys like him would improve this offense.

[TB_11]

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

You should care what his SLG is. SLG isn't just driving runners in, it's the ability to get around the bases without the help of your teammates. The more you can do that, the more likely you are to score. That's why Walker with a .350/.450 OBP/SLG is more valuable than Pierre putting up .365/.390. Sure Pierre steals more bases, but if we include that(which is unfair to begin with because a double is more valuable than a single and a steal) then his OBP should be deducted for his CS%. In addition to all of this, Pierre is coming off of the worst season of his career. Even at his best Pierre isn't great. He'll put up a decent OBP, but some of that is mitigated with his average to mediocre SB%; he is terrible at hitting for extra bases. He's not a good defender. I can probably name a half dozen players off the top of my head that could be or are available that would be as good or better options(Bradley, Michaels, Crisp, GMJ, Cameron, Giles). He shouldn't be a top priority.

 

An average player doesn't put up 200 hits a year. I'm not saying Pierre is the best option out there. I'm saying he would help this team.

 

I wouldn't say he isn't a good defender, yeah he has a weak arm. But he pretty good range in CF.

 

a 74% SB% is mediocre? He still gets 50+ a year.

 

Take your example about getting to second base, scoring position. Pierre had 19 doubles and 57 SB last year, in his down year. So he was responsible for gettin into scoring position 76 times. Walker had 25 doubles and 1 SB. Do the math, Pierre gets in to position to score a lot, I didn't even include his triples.

 

I'm not trying to compare Walker to Pierre because they are totally different players, just used him as a refrence point. I think Pierre would be a good addition because of the reasons stated above. The Cubs have been terrible at scoring runs unless it comes form a HR. Getting Pierre, or guys like him would improve this offense.

 

The problem is he was also thrown out 17 times stealing. Losing those 17 outs is barely worth the 57 stolen bases.

[TB_11]

 

Obviously a high SLG is not of high importance at the top of the order, but overall in the lineup we lost Alou and Sosa last year, Nomar and Walker this year, where is the power coming from outside of Lee and Ramirez??

 

How many 35 HR guys do you need in the lineup? The Sox had two, and it seemed to work for them.

 

You can get away with having two 35 HR guys in your lineup when you have the pitching the Sox had in 2005.

[bhogg]

if we start one of those BandWGN things for Pierre, I wanna be the driver.

 

I love the guy and think he'd help our club out more than just about any player out there (that we can possibly get).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If someone starts a BandWGN for Pierre, I might have to run it off the road. :P