Your Thoughts on Hendry's Plan

[fromthestretch]

Apparantly, you didn't watch many Cubs games when Baylor was managing. The Cubs had 117 sacrifces in 2001. 117. Fifty of those came from non-pitchers. There were numerous occasions where Ricky Gutierrez was called on to bunt after a lead-off double by Eric Young. Nobody out, man on second, early in the game, and the Cubs were bunting.

 

Jim Leyland is another manager that likes to bunt...a lot.

 

Despite the fact this is way off-topic, let me ask - where are those guys now? Who ever said Baylor was a good manager. It's like you're putting words in my mouth.

 

I already stated before that I think it's irresponsible for managers to act that way.

 

You also said:

 

And btw, I watch baseball daily, and I rarely ever see what you're describing, except for the last week of the season and the playoffs when desperation and pressure sets in.

 

That's what I was responding to. You said it rarely happens, and I was giving examples of it happening. I didn't put any words in your mouth.

[fromthestretch]

where's the data that proves it? just wondering.

There are lots of places to look, but in the interest of promoting this site, why not look at They Call It Small Ball For A Reason written last year by one of our own regulars.

 

Now the data in the article shows definitively that small ball is questionable in any situation other than 1-run games. But it supports usage in one-run games, even despite the fact that the article is clearly arguing against the usage of small ball.

 

Personally, I promote responsible usage of small ball, which is sparingly and just the situations described previously. I also promote OBP and power. Unfortunately, in my experience, the anti-small ball crowd dismisses this combination and assumes for some reason it's impossible to have balance, and never appropriate to play for one run.

 

small-ball causes more one-run games than it wins because too many managers are bunting in the 3rd inning with their #2 hitter.

This isn't on Hendry though. The GM has to assume the manager is responsible and only plays for one run in the late innings. And btw, I watch baseball daily, and I rarely ever see what you're describing, except for the last week of the season and the playoffs when desperation and pressure sets in.

 

Apparantly, you didn't watch many Cubs games when Baylor was managing. The Cubs had 117 sacrifces in 2001. 117. Fifty of those came from non-pitchers. There were numerous occasions where Ricky Gutierrez was called on to bunt after a lead-off double by Eric Young. Nobody out, man on second, early in the game, and the Cubs were bunting.

 

Jim Leyland is another manager that likes to bunt...a lot.

Bunting in 2001 was a smart move. I think Baylor knew as much as anyone that there was no way in hell the Cubs were scoring many runs if they tried to outslug teams so he played some small ball. It worked out pretty well, didn't it? A very mediocre Cub team talent-wise nearly made the playoffs.

 

How can you say it was a smart move when we'll never know what could have happened had they not bunted. Bunting in first inning of a game with contact hitter up, nobody out, a fast runner on second, and Sammy Sosa in his prime due up is simply not good strategy...ever. As for being a mediocre Cub team, they got on base at a .336 clip. Not great, but still much better than the 2005 team. That team outscored this season's team by 74 runs. They probably could have scored more had they not given up 117 outs.

 

I do agree there are situations where bunting isn't a bad option. But I don't trust Baker to judge when those situations are.

[Wheelimus]

atually, I think I figured out Hendry's plan...

 

Smoke http://mypage.iu.edu/~trarobin/cubs/waterpipe.jpg

 

Pickup http://mypage.iu.edu/~trarobin/cubs/phone.jpg

 

Sign http://mypage.iu.edu/~trarobin/cubs/contract.jpg

 

Rusch and Perez didn't just GET inflated contracts, they had to track down some KB to get those suckers...

 

:lol:

[SAMMYWHO]

We got to believe Hendry has something up his sleeve as far as a big time trade. I would hope for Abreu. I just think it's premature to roast Hendry's behind this early. I hate Neifi but it's not his fault the manager hits him in the 1 or 2 hole.

We thought the same thing last year after we traded for Sosa and that thing was Burnitz. I'm def not being optimistic about anything this offseason.

 

They have to give us something to be excited about. They can't honestly believe we'll just keep coming and spending money at Wrigley. I want Abreu or something better than that. No retreads.

[UK1679666180]

The ability to move runners over, steal bases, and sacrifice outs isn't as important as getting runners on in front of Lee and Ramirez.

 

The Cubs didn't fail last year b/c of their defense, they failed b/c of poor health in the rotation, poor bullpen, no LF'er (until Murton), CF'er, and a below avg. RF'er and SS for most of the year.

 

I'll wait and see to judge to see what comes out of it, but this team appears to be failing to fix what it needs most.

[SAMMYWHO]

We got to believe Hendry has something up his sleeve as far as a big time trade. I would hope for Abreu. I just think it's premature to roast Hendry's behind this early. I hate Neifi but it's not his fault the manager hits him in the 1 or 2 hole.

 

When we just wasted 5 million dollars on someone we could have paid the league minimum for? It isn't premature.

 

You're right, it isn't Neifi's fault Dusty bats him in the 2 hole. It's ultimately Hendry's fault, as he resigned the offensive black hole.

 

It's the whole front office's fault we resigned Neifi. Somebody needed to show Hendry Neifi's current stats and show what adequate backups actually cost. You don't pay $10,000 for a Chevy Chevette just because the salesman says it vintage.

[sethuel1]

i think it sucks.

[snoodmonger]

In various threads I have read that Hendry has no plan, Hendry's plan is to overpay bad talent and ignore "real" talent, or that Hendry can't stick to a plan.

 

There is also disagreement about whether he is too aggressive or ot aggressive enough.

 

So I'm curious to see what you think Hendry's plan is for 2006. Rather than just throw out your projected lineup, explain what the plan Hendry is trying execute is, and then explain why the player's fit into that plan. This isn't your plan, but what you think is Hendry's plan.

 

For me personally, I believe he is trying to build a team in the mold of the 2003 Marlins. Here's how:

 

-Excellent 5-man rotation during the season with an eye for total dominance in a 5 or 7 game playoff series with three #1 starters. The Cubs likely sign Washburn, Byrd, or (insert other respectable pitcher) to fill out the rotation and rely upon Rusch as a long-reliever unless someone gets hurt, at which point he becomes a fill-in starter.

 

I think Hendry will again gamble on the health of his rotation because he has no choice at this point. The team is likely expected to have a starter's ERA under 4 and one of the top staff ERAs in the league.

 

-Overhaul of the lineup in a very formulaic, traditional manner; 1-2 spots in the order have crazy speed and small-ball specialty as needed; 3-5 spots have traditional power with 25+ HR 100 RBI potential each; 6-8 have respectable production, but willing to chance a couple rookies.

 

To execute this plan, I see the Cubs trading for Juan Pierre and signing Rafael Furcal (1-2), trading for Cliff Floyd (5), and gambling on Murton and Cedeno (7-8). 3, 4, and 6 are known quantities (Lee, Ramirez, Barret).

 

While many fans here dislike the notion of small-ball, Hendry and Baker like it, and I believe Hendry pursues it. This team is built to win close games, not blow-outs. Therefore it will be necessary to have players capable of that style of game at the top of the order. I expect Hendry thinks this offense will win a whole of games 5-4, 4-3, etc., and while small-ball has been shown to be ineffective in most scenarios, it has also been shown to be more effective in one-run games and in the playoffs.

 

-Strong closer and strong bullpen. Dempster proved he was worth the gamble for a new contract. The Cubs likely sign Bob Howry and trade for one other middle reliever that posted an ERA under 3.00 (possibly from Cleveland or Minnestota). Perhaps they even target another closer candidate to set-up, but not one the premeire closer talents (Jones or Gordon types).

 

-Jerome Williams and Todd Walker will be two of the chips used to get some of the players I mentioned above. Hendry will not trade his best farm talent (Pie) and will not target any player whose worth justifies losing Pie. In other words, no super-star acquisition.

 

So what do you think Hendry's plan is?

 

I think that's pretty good analysis, TheDude, and you might eb on to something.

 

However, I think his plan changes each season. O_O said in a different thread that Hendry seems to want to mold his team after the exisitng world champs, and I agree. Last year, he heard so much about Boston's chemistry that he becmae hell bent on eliminating our chemistry "problems". (The much publicized garbage with Merker, Stone, Sosa, etc. didn't help.)

 

This year he saw the Sox win it with anemic offense and great piching, and I think he feels it would be a shorter road to get a team similar to the '05 Sox than it would to field a team like the '05 cards. So he's building around speed and small ball.

[MPrior]

where's the data that proves it? just wondering.

There are lots of places to look, but in the interest of promoting this site, why not look at They Call It Small Ball For A Reason written last year by one of our own regulars.

 

Now the data in the article shows definitively that small ball is questionable in any situation other than 1-run games. But it supports usage in one-run games, even despite the fact that the article is clearly arguing against the usage of small ball.

 

Personally, I promote responsible usage of small ball, which is sparingly and just the situations described previously. I also promote OBP and power. Unfortunately, in my experience, the anti-small ball crowd dismisses this combination and assumes for some reason it's impossible to have balance, and never appropriate to play for one run.

 

small-ball causes more one-run games than it wins because too many managers are bunting in the 3rd inning with their #2 hitter.

This isn't on Hendry though. The GM has to assume the manager is responsible and only plays for one run in the late innings. And btw, I watch baseball daily, and I rarely ever see what you're describing, except for the last week of the season and the playoffs when desperation and pressure sets in.

 

Not really true. As he points out, the correlation between SBS and Winning Percentage is almost negligible. And the article doesn't in any way control for (not that it could control for it; I'm not faulting the article, as I thought it was very well done) pitching, so a correlation with winning percentage would be largely meaningless anyway.

 

Now, if you could show me a significant correlation between small-ball usage and runs scored in the late innings of tight games, then I'd buy it, because that would have nothing to do with the pitching.

[wade]

I think the plan is to get Furcal. It's stated that he is number one on their wish-list, so leadoff and SS = Furcal, filling a hole. With Neifi's signing, 2B is either his, or his and Cedeno's/Hairston's/Neifi's alone (depending on something I'll get to soon) so there's 2B. A hole filled where no hole was there in the first place (Walker).

 

LF = Murton, I think.

 

That leaves CF, RF, and pitching. I think he'll try to upgrade pitching through free agency.

 

So, with what's happened already (and I'm echoing some things said elsewhere here and in the papers) Walker and Williams and possibly Hairston, Cedeno, Patterson, Mitre, and maybe Hill are all on the block.

 

I think it points to Hendry looking to make a big trade. An Abreu/Dunn-type trade where he does what he's good at- taking on a good player because the other team can't afford them. Similar to how they got Lee and Ramirez.

 

Hendry mentioned that the free agent crop is thin and he expects more trading this winter. I think he'll be in the middle of a big deal.

 

At least I hope he is.

[biittner77]

As I see it, Hendry's plan is to build the team around pitching and defense. If your greatest strength is pitching than it stands to reason that you shouldn't undermine that strength by having inadequate up the middle defense. Of course it's important that these teams get good production from the corners.

 

Going in to 2006, Hendry probably feels that he will get solid-good production from 3/4 corner positions with RF still being a concern. Hnedrya also likely feels that any offensive shortcomings from CF, SS, or 2nd are lessened by the better than average production from the catcher position.

 

There's really only one way to "plan" for timely hitting and that is to get the best hitters that you can find and let them use their skills. The best argument against small ball would be the 2005 Astros during the WS. They gave away way too many outs which seems like a really bad idea against a good pitching staff.I find it ironic that during the playoffs, when every AB is very important, that any team would ever bunt with a non pitcher before the 7th inning.

[samhainn77]

Words can't describe how depressed yesterday's transaction has made me. I've been a longtime Hendry supporter, but since the end of the 2004 season I'm starting to wonder if he hasn't taken up a trendy crack habit.

 

The glass half full side of me thinks that maybe Hendry sees perez as a 25th man, defensive replacement and has convinced Dusty that he should be used as such. That doesn't justify the amount that he over paid for him, but it helped me get to sleep last night. This same side of me thinks that Hendry may have a deal in the works with Cedeno being the centerpiece. Again, not really ideal, but if it somehow nets us Adam Dunn, Luis Castillo, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley or any other relatively young, productive player then I can live with it. The same side of me thinks that this might be a sign that Hendry plans to resign Nomar for a reasonable, incentive laden deal instead of overspending for Furcal. This, in turn, would free up enough cash for us to pick up Giles, another solid reliever, and maybe Millwood.

 

If we had a lineup of:

Walker/Castillo 2B

Murton/Giles LF/RF

Giles/Dunn RF/LF

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Garciaparra SS

Bradley/Barrett CF/C

Barrett/Patterson C/CF --Yes I'm still not ready to give up on him

 

A rotation of:

Z

Prior

Wood

Millwood

Willams/Maddux

 

I could live with overpaying Neifi to spell Nomar/Aram/Walker and I would enjoy watching the cubs in the playoffs next year...and every time Neifi was used properly I'd slowly forget how much we are paying him and how he was used last year. I would no longer have expletives before his name when I talked about him.

 

What I fear and what I think is more likely is that we put all of our eggs in the furcal basket, he uses us to jack up the price that the braves eventually pay him. We trade Walker for Pierre or some other overrated player. Overpay for Jaque Jones. Let Nomar Walk. Ship Patterson out for peanuts. Resign Macias. Pass on Giles because he's "overpriced". Pass on Bradley because he's "trouble". Give up on Dunn and Abreu and maybe even sign Juan Encarnacion so Dusty has somebody to play in front of Murton.

 

If we end up with:

Pierre CF

Perez SS

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Encarnacion RF

Jones LF

Barrett C

Cedeno 2B

 

A rotation of:

Z

Prior

Wood

Maddux

Rusch

 

I will not only jump off of the Hendry bandwagon, I will burn it.

[CubsWin]

I think his plan is to sign Furcal as quickly as possible, obviously. He then will check in with Brian Giles' agent and see if the addition of Furcal to the top of the Cubs order has made the Cubs the type of "contending team" that Giles wants to be on for the next 3-4 years. When Giles' agent says no, he will trade for Juan Pierre or sign Kenny Lofton. After hearing back from Giles' agent that Brian still thinks the Cubs won't be a contender, Hendry will sign the best pitcher he can afford, either a starter or reliever. He will then check back in with Giles' agent. If by some stroke of luck Hendry is able to improve the team enough to make Brian Giles want to play on it, he will throw every last dollar he can to sign him. If/when that fails, he will trade for the best RFer he can get. I think thats his plan. Whether it will give the Cubs a team that will contend next season...who knows?

[Careless]

I think his plan is to sign Furcal as quickly as possible, obviously. He then will check in with Brian Giles' agent and see if the addition of Furcal to the top of the Cubs order has made the Cubs the type of "contending team" that Giles wants to be on for the next 3-4 years. When Giles' agent says no, he will trade for Juan Pierre or sign Kenny Lofton. After hearing back from Giles' agent that Brian still thinks the Cubs won't be a contender, Hendry will sign the best pitcher he can afford, either a starter or reliever. He will then check back in with Giles' agent. If by some stroke of luck Hendry is able to improve the team enough to make Brian Giles want to play on it, he will throw every last dollar he can to sign him. If/when that fails, he will trade for the best RFer he can get. I think thats his plan. Whether it will give the Cubs a team that will contend next season...who knows?

If I thought hendry wanted giles more, I'd consider this a pretty good guess.

[Bgbird68]

I think his plan is to sign Furcal as quickly as possible, obviously. He then will check in with Brian Giles' agent and see if the addition of Furcal to the top of the Cubs order has made the Cubs the type of "contending team" that Giles wants to be on for the next 3-4 years. When Giles' agent says no, he will trade for Juan Pierre or sign Kenny Lofton. After hearing back from Giles' agent that Brian still thinks the Cubs won't be a contender, Hendry will sign the best pitcher he can afford, either a starter or reliever. He will then check back in with Giles' agent. If by some stroke of luck Hendry is able to improve the team enough to make Brian Giles want to play on it, he will throw every last dollar he can to sign him. If/when that fails, he will trade for the best RFer he can get. I think thats his plan. Whether it will give the Cubs a team that will contend next season...who knows?

 

IMO, Giles is not going to sit around and wait to see how the Cubs postseason plays out before making a decision.

 

As far as Hendry's plan, I couldn't even begin to tell you what it is.

[larhur]

Unlike many of the posters I have read, I believe that Hendry and the organization have a plan, and all the speculation we read really is just that. We read the different writers ideas on what Hendry is thinking, going to do or not do, what players he is focusing on, and while some may be close or even correct we really don't know, but it is fun to talk about. Mr Hendry, if you read this board one word of advise, We really need a good team and are patiently waiting for word you made the perfect deal to make us better and to placate the posters on this board, But please do not overpay for someone who will not fit in this team just because he might be a leadoff man or a power hitter we so want, If someone is willing to dump a player it may not be just a salery dump, also please don't sign someone at the expense of a young players development. If a signee is old and worn out but is a dusty man, trade the younger player he is taking the place of, as dusty will just sit him and say he is playing the player with the best chance of winning, while us on the board think a younger player would give the team a special spark, Maybe several younger players would help the whole team feel younger and hustle more th keep from being out hustled--Thanks for allowing me to rattle on.

[CubsWin]

I think his plan is to sign Furcal as quickly as possible, obviously. He then will check in with Brian Giles' agent and see if the addition of Furcal to the top of the Cubs order has made the Cubs the type of "contending team" that Giles wants to be on for the next 3-4 years. When Giles' agent says no, he will trade for Juan Pierre or sign Kenny Lofton. After hearing back from Giles' agent that Brian still thinks the Cubs won't be a contender, Hendry will sign the best pitcher he can afford, either a starter or reliever. He will then check back in with Giles' agent. If by some stroke of luck Hendry is able to improve the team enough to make Brian Giles want to play on it, he will throw every last dollar he can to sign him. If/when that fails, he will trade for the best RFer he can get. I think thats his plan. Whether it will give the Cubs a team that will contend next season...who knows?

 

IMO, Giles is not going to sit around and wait to see how the Cubs postseason plays out before making a decision.

 

As far as Hendry's plan, I couldn't even begin to tell you what it is.

Why not? Its in his own best interest.