BA Top 20 Prospects: Southern League

[Outshined_One]

I'm looking forward to Ron's take on this one.

 

Link

 

DJAXX in the Top 20:

 

8 ) Felix Pie

12) Matt Murton

15) Rich Hill

17) Ricky Nolasco

18 ) Renyel Pinto

[Outshined_One]

Notes on each, although most of this is old news:

 

Felix Pie

 

-Power was finally developing.

-Noteworthy tools.

-Hits for average even against lefties.

-Still raw on the bases, in the OF, and with the strike zone, although he does manage to get the bat on the ball even with bad swings.

 

Matt Murton

 

-Few holes in his swing with great strike zone judgment.

-Uses all fields.

-Should develop into a 15-20 homer kind of guy.

-Solid defender, although his arm is a bit suspect.

-Could become a middle of the lineup kind of guy.

 

Rich Hill

 

-Finally harnessed his electric stuff and put his control problems aside.

-Performed well enough in AA and AAA to give hope for his future.

-At best? #3 starter.

-At worst? An effective LOOGY.

 

Ricky Nolasco

 

-Made a run at the SL pitching triple crown.

-Aggressive, willing to challenge hitters.

-Three good pitches (91-93 fb, good curve, and change).

-Able to reach back for something extra when needed.

-Command and control freak who won't give up baserunners easily.

 

Renyel Pinto

 

-Struggled at AAA, but made a comeback at AA.

-Still has plenty of trouble locating and commanding the strike zone.

-Three plus pitches (91-94 fb, slider, and excellent change).

-Has a future, but like Hill in previous years, will need to be able to harness his stuff effectively.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Can't disagree with where the Jaxx players were ranked, but I do disagree with Brandon Sing missing the cut. Dang, the SL was loaded.

 

Oh, and I disagree about Chris Young being ranked ahead of Chad Billingsley.

[rawaction]

Most talented league every year. Of course when you have a Cubs, Marlins, Brewers, and Dodgers affiliate in the league.....that's gonna happen. Heck, even Arizona and TB have pretty good systems. Should be just as good next year with the guys coming up from A-ball.

 

Can't complain about the rankings. Nice to see they think Hill could be a #3. I was thinking 4-5 was his ceiling. Nolasco is a big time sleeper. I think he could become one of those guys that quietly has a solid 10-year ML career. He won't kill himself with control, but can get the big strikeout. He'll give up the longball, but won't get knocked around.

[RyCubsFan]

I'm looking forward to Ron's take on this one.

 

Link

 

DJAXX in the Top 20:

 

8 ) Felix Pie

12) Matt Murton

15) Rich Hill

17) Ricky Nolasco

18 ) Renyel Pinto

 

Wow, that's a loaded top 20! Wow.

 

Admittedly I'm bias, but I think Pie should be higher. His defense, for instance, is far superior to any of the other prospects on the list.

 

I wonder if we were to look back at this list in 15 years who will have the best career...go Felix!

 

Murton really impressed to be rated so highly. Only four spots below Pie!

 

Like most of us, it looks like they call a tie b/n hill, nolasco, and pinto. i wonder how close marshall and ryu came to making it. same with sing.

[RyCubsFan]

Notes on each, although most of this is old news:

 

Felix Pie

 

-Power was finally developing.

-Noteworthy tools.

-Hits for average even against lefties.

-Still raw on the bases, in the OF, and with the strike zone, although he does manage to get the bat on the ball even with bad swings.

 

Matt Murton

 

-Few holes in his swing with great strike zone judgment.

-Uses all fields.

-Should develop into a 15-20 homer kind of guy.

-Solid defender, although his arm is a bit suspect.

-Could become a middle of the lineup kind of guy.

 

Rich Hill

 

-Finally harnessed his electric stuff and put his control problems aside.

-Performed well enough in AA and AAA to give hope for his future.

-At best? #3 starter.

-At worst? An effective LOOGY.

 

Ricky Nolasco

 

-Made a run at the SL pitching triple crown.

-Aggressive, willing to challenge hitters.

-Three good pitches (91-93 fb, good curve, and change).

-Able to reach back for something extra when needed.

-Command and control freak who won't give up baserunners easily.

 

Renyel Pinto

 

-Struggled at AAA, but made a comeback at AA.

-Still has plenty of trouble locating and commanding the strike zone.

-Three plus pitches (91-94 fb, slider, and excellent change).

-Has a future, but like Hill in previous years, will need to be able to harness his stuff effectively.

 

Few comments:

 

1. Murton ALREADY is a 15-20 homer guy. I mean, the man had 7 in under 140 at bats in the show! I think he could develop into a 30 homer guy.

 

2. I see Hill's best as a #2. If Zito can do it... They call his stuff "electric" but then say his ceiling is a #3. This doesn't make sense to me. #3's tend to have good stuff, but not "electric" stuff. While control issues can prevent #3's who indeed have electric stuff from being an ace....they still have higher ceiling than a #3...

 

3. I still like Marshall above Hill, Pinto, and Nolasco. He has the velocity of Pinto, but the control of Nolasco...and the handedness of Pinto and Hill (a lefty). I'd guess the injuries kept him off the list...

 

4. I really hope that Pinto can gain better control. He showed what he could do in his start in late spring training last year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Admittedly I'm bias, but I think Pie should be higher. His defense, for instance, is far superior to any of the other prospects on the list.

 

No, I agree with their rankings. I think Pie is below Delmon Young, Hermida, Francoeur, Chris Young, Billingsley, Guzman and LaRoche.

 

3. I still like Marshall above Hill, Pinto, and Nolasco. He has the velocity of Pinto, but the control of Nolasco...and the handedness of Pinto and Hill (a lefty). I'd guess the injuries kept him off the list...

 

I agree about Marshall - I would rank him ahead of Hill, Pinto and Nolasco too. The reason he didn't make this list is because he only threw 25 innings before the injury. The pitcher who didn't make the rankings that surprised me was Carlos Marmol (who I'd rate higher than Pinto or Nolasco).

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Admittedly I'm bias, but I think Pie should be higher. His defense, for instance, is far superior to any of the other prospects on the list.

 

No, I agree with their rankings. I think Pie is below Delmon Young, Hermida, Francoeur, Chris Young, Billingsley, Guzman and LaRoche.

Yeah, if it was any other division I would say yes but the SL was absolutely stacked this year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Since it's become so trendy to think poorly of Rich Hill's fastball, here's BA's take on his FB:

 

His outstanding 12-6 curveball continued to befuddle hitters, and his 88-92 mph fastball exploded with late life at the plate.

[abuck1220]

Since it's become so trendy to think poorly of Rich Hill's fastball, here's BA's take on his FB:

 

His outstanding 12-6 curveball continued to befuddle hitters, and his 88-92 mph fastball exploded with late life at the plate.

 

yeah, everybody lay off his fb!

[series65cubsfan]

If everyone did that he'd win the Cy Young for sure next year. :wink:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Q: Bob from Arkansas asks:

Looking at the Top 10 from 5 years ago, there are some #1 starters, solid major leaguers, an undecided (Rauch), and a disappointment (Patterson). Five years from now, who from this top 10 list is most likely not to reach their potentional?

 

A: Aaron Fitt: Interesting question. I'm going with Pie - his tools are certainly there, but he remains rather raw. I'm just not convinced it's all going to come together for him. He's got a chance to be special, but will he work hard enough to make that happen?

 

Q: Navin from Los Angeles asks:

It's a list like this that makes you appreciate how loaded the SL really is. How far from making the top 20 were West Tennessee RHP Carlos Marmol and 1BOF Brandon Sing?

 

A: Aaron Fitt: Neither was really close, only because of the amazing quality of this league. Sing might have made the top 40, if we went that far... He's a pure power hitter who can really crush the ball, but his swing is too long.

 

Q: Phillip from Portland, OR asks:

Can you compare James, Pinto and Oleson. Is James last because of age-comparison only?

 

A: Aaron Fitt: James is the last lefty of the three because he lacks the power stuff and physical frames that the other two have. You've got to give Chuck James credit for putting up amazing numbers at every level, and he's undeniably a fierce competitor who gets the most out of his stuff. But he throws an 89-92 fastball and lacks a big-time out-pitch. He's probably a No. 4 or 5 starter in the majors. I'm not convinced Pinto will ever reach his potential, but he has three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) and a chance to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. Olsen has the best power stuff of the three and the highest ceiling, and he is just as competitive as James. Plus, Olsen and Pinto have four inches on James and both are younger.

 

Q: Chris from Chicago asks:

Higher ceiling: Ricky Nolasco or Renyel Pinto? Who gets to the majors first?

 

A: Aaron Fitt: Pinto probably has a higher ceiling, being a lefthander with slightly better pure stuff. But Nolasco looks like the better bet to reach his ceiling (a No. 3 starter, in my mind), and should be an impact big leaguer first.

 

Q: J.P. from IL asks:

I honestly don't understand your attitude towards Nolasco. He put up phenominal numbers this year, yet was mysteriously missing for nearly all of your weekly Hot Sheets and gets ranked at #17 here. You had nothing negative to say about him in your own scouting report, so what gives?!

 

A: Aaron Fitt: Being ranked No. 17 in this talent-crammed league is hardly a slap in the face - it's quite an impressive accomplishment, especially for a guy repeating the league. I am a believer in Ricky Nolasco - he'll be an impact big leaguer. But probably not an all-star, like many of the players in front of him on this list could be.

 

Q: Tim from Chicago asks:

I'm having a hard time buying into the Felix Pie mystique. He strikes out at a higher rate than Corey Patterson, and he gets caught stealing 40% of the time. Tell me why he's not going to be another position player who becomes a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

 

A: Aaron Fitt: That very well could happen - I don't fully buy into the Pie mystique, either. But he has so much natural talent and such a high upside that you cannot ignore him on a list of top prospects. And he is a very exciting, high-energy player. He could figure it out - don't forget that even though he's been on the prospect landscape a few years, he's still just 20 years old.

 

Q: Dan from Mass. asks:

Is Matt Murton going to be the starting Left Fielder for the Cubs next season?

 

A: Aaron Fitt: I think he should be. The Cubs need to give this guy a chance to hold down that job, because he's about ready for it.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Q: Tim from Chicago asks:

I'm having a hard time buying into the Felix Pie mystique. He strikes out at a higher rate than Corey Patterson, and he gets caught stealing 40% of the time. Tell me why he's not going to be another position player who becomes a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

 

A: Aaron Fitt: That very well could happen - I don't fully buy into the Pie mystique, either. But he has so much natural talent and such a high upside that you cannot ignore him on a list of top prospects. And he is a very exciting, high-energy player. He could figure it out - don't forget that even though he's been on the prospect landscape a few years, he's still just 20 years old.

Is that you Tim?

[rawaction]

I'm completely on the Nolasco bandwagon. I serious think he's gonna have a pretty good career. We've mentioned Paul Byrd in other threads, and I think he's gonna be a similar type pitcher. Not gonna be an elite All-Star pitcher, but should give you some sustained years of high 3's/low 4's ERAs and 200 innings in his prime.

[Tim]

Q: Tim from Chicago asks:

I'm having a hard time buying into the Felix Pie mystique. He strikes out at a higher rate than Corey Patterson, and he gets caught stealing 40% of the time. Tell me why he's not going to be another position player who becomes a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

 

A: Aaron Fitt: That very well could happen - I don't fully buy into the Pie mystique, either. But he has so much natural talent and such a high upside that you cannot ignore him on a list of top prospects. And he is a very exciting, high-energy player. He could figure it out - don't forget that even though he's been on the prospect landscape a few years, he's still just 20 years old.

Is that you Tim?

Nope, I'd be Tim from NSBB if I submitted a question.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Q: Tim from Chicago asks:

I'm having a hard time buying into the Felix Pie mystique. He strikes out at a higher rate than Corey Patterson, and he gets caught stealing 40% of the time. Tell me why he's not going to be another position player who becomes a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

 

A: Aaron Fitt: That very well could happen - I don't fully buy into the Pie mystique, either. But he has so much natural talent and such a high upside that you cannot ignore him on a list of top prospects. And he is a very exciting, high-energy player. He could figure it out - don't forget that even though he's been on the prospect landscape a few years, he's still just 20 years old.

Is that you Tim?

Nope, I'd be Tim from NSBB if I submitted a question.

I figured since I remember you liking Pie.

[RyCubsFan]

Q: Tim from Chicago asks:

I'm having a hard time buying into the Felix Pie mystique. He strikes out at a higher rate than Corey Patterson, and he gets caught stealing 40% of the time. Tell me why he's not going to be another position player who becomes a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

 

A: Aaron Fitt: That very well could happen - I don't fully buy into the Pie mystique, either. But he has so much natural talent and such a high upside that you cannot ignore him on a list of top prospects. And he is a very exciting, high-energy player. He could figure it out - don't forget that even though he's been on the prospect landscape a few years, he's still just 20 years old.

Is that you Tim?

Nope, I'd be Tim from NSBB if I submitted a question.

I figured since I remember you liking Pie.

 

 

I'm much more confident than Aaron Fitt and the questioner about Pie reaching his potential. Everything we've read about Pie praises his work ethic over and over. He is said to be an infectious joyful person to be around who gives it his all. Further, he has made great improvements every year. As long as he keeps improving and he keeps the positive attitude, I don't see Pie failing.

[jaxxradio]

Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 2:53 pm Post subject:

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Notes on each, although most of this is old news:

 

Felix Pie

 

-Power was finally developing.

-Noteworthy tools.

-Hits for average even against lefties.

-Still raw on the bases, in the OF, and with the strike zone, although he does manage to get the bat on the ball even with bad swings.

 

Matt Murton

 

-Few holes in his swing with great strike zone judgment.

-Uses all fields.

-Should develop into a 15-20 homer kind of guy.

-Solid defender, although his arm is a bit suspect.

-Could become a middle of the lineup kind of guy.

 

Rich Hill

 

-Finally harnessed his electric stuff and put his control problems aside.

-Performed well enough in AA and AAA to give hope for his future.

-At best? #3 starter.

-At worst? An effective LOOGY.

 

Ricky Nolasco

 

-Made a run at the SL pitching triple crown.

-Aggressive, willing to challenge hitters.

-Three good pitches (91-93 fb, good curve, and change).

-Able to reach back for something extra when needed.

-Command and control freak who won't give up baserunners easily.

 

Renyel Pinto

 

-Struggled at AAA, but made a comeback at AA.

-Still has plenty of trouble locating and commanding the strike zone.

-Three plus pitches (91-94 fb, slider, and excellent change).

-Has a future, but like Hill in previous years, will need to be able to harness his stuff effectively

 

I'm not surprised by the amount of Jaxx players in the top twenty although I do wish they would have given Sing a little more respect.

 

As far as the players rankings go, Pie is about where he should be. He has the potential to be something REALLY special, but he needs to work on his contact at the plate. One thing I take exception to is the fact that BA says he is raw in the field. He was the best defensive CF in this league before his injury bar nobody.

 

Murton could have been ranked higher. As for his 15-20 HR capability, he is already there. I also take offense about his arm strength. He has a good arm for a left-fielder. It's not a cannon but its not horrible either.

 

Hill, Nolasco and Pinto were without doubt the three best pitchers the Jaxx had this season with Ryu very close behind. I fully expect Hill to be a 3 or 4 starter as long as he maintains the control he had this past season. Nolasco is the guy that I really believe could step up and be a number 2 or 3 starter. I LOVE his ability to get out of jams. He has a bulldog type mentality on the mound and fully expect him to have a ton of success in his second go around with Triple-A hitters in 2006. Pinto is going to need to harness his control in order for him to reach his potential. If he does, his stuff is frightening. The fact that he is a left-hander, he could very easily be an above average starting pitcher in the majors.

 

I am going to be very interested in what happens in the Arizona Fall League. I know there a ton of people that are off the Angel Guzman bandwagon but I am not one of them. I'm looking forward to see how good Guzman can be against elite competition.

[BigbadB]

Wasn't Guzman's last setback a forearm problem, one that isn't typically difficult for a pitcher to recover from?

 

Wouldn't this last "minor injury" only give him more time to recover from his serious pitching injury (shoulder)?

 

I'm not giving up on him, and I sure hope no one else in the Cubs organization has either.

[craig]

Questions: For JaxxRadio, perhaps especially.

 

1. Somebody suggested they liked Marshall (if healthy) better than Pinto or anybody, suggesting that he throws as hard as Pinto but has better control. Ron, would you say that's true, from your observation on Marshall? I was under the impression that neither his fastball velocity nor his fastball movement were nearly as good as Pinto's. I'd have guessed his fastball more in the Hill 88-92 range. What are your thoughts?

 

*note: I wonder if Pinto's stuff isn't underappreciated a bit by some posters. Sure, he's kinda wild. But man, that guy was totally anti-HR this season. You can put a few more guys on base and get away with it when you didn't give up HR's. (See Zambrano. And see Maddux for the opposite, a guy who may have a nice WHIP but gives up so many HR's that his ERA will be average.)

 

2. Ron, how good do you think Ryu's stuff is, compared to the other lead guys? What is it that makes him not quite as good as Nolasco or the other guys? Not quite as much velocity on the fastball? Not quite as much life? Not quite as good control of the breaking ball?

 

3. Somebody touched on Hill, how he can have "electric stuff" but still profile as no better than a #3. I wonder if the "electric stuff" is misleading; he's got an electric pitch, the curveball. But I'm not under the impression that either his change or fastball qualify as "electric". One electric knockout pitch with some perfectly fine other pitches can win a lot of games. But I think really it's the curveball that's special.

 

4. Ron, thanks for feedback on Pie's defense. The tepid report on his defense concerned me some, since I've always assumed that his defense was going to be a signature virtue for him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I've read various accounts that say Marshall thows 88-92 w/ sink. He did top out at 96 in his 2004 season debut in Lansing (temps that game were below 40 degrees).

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Most talented league every year. Of course when you have a Cubs, Marlins, Brewers, and Dodgers affiliate in the league.....that's gonna happen. Heck, even Arizona and TB have pretty good systems. Should be just as good next year with the guys coming up from A-ball.

 

Can't complain about the rankings. Nice to see they think Hill could be a #3. I was thinking 4-5 was his ceiling. Nolasco is a big time sleeper. I think he could become one of those guys that quietly has a solid 10-year ML career. He won't kill himself with control, but can get the big strikeout. He'll give up the longball, but won't get knocked around.

 

Ricky Nolasco's upside = Jeff Suppan, or Paul Byrd. That's a not bad upside to have at all. He'll pitch for years, give his team 200 IP, and make millions. Nolasco also strikes me as a very durable guy, unlikely to have recurring injury problems. Smooth, non-descript delivery. Nice.

 

As good as the DJaxx were this year, half the team will get promoted to Iowa for 2006, for once the I-Cubs will be the minor league affiliate worth watching. Pie, Greenberg, Sing, Theriot and Craig should all see AAA time, but the pitching staff is what should be exciting.

 

Guzman, Nolasco, Pinto, Ryu, and either Sean Marshall or Rich Hill. With Aardsma, Shipman, Brownlie, probably Van Buren, and probably Wellemeyer in the pen. I'm making the I-Cubs my runaway pre-season PCL favorite for 2006.

[BigbadB]

Will they be able to have all those guys in Iowa? How many will fit on the 40 man roster? Some will likely be unprotected. Won't some get traded for help at the big league level?

[burnt out cubbie fan]

The Angels and Dodgers are probably going to have really stacked AAA teams next year... This year in the Texas league the Angels had the numbers 1, 2, 7, 15, and 16 prospects. That's just crazy.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Will they be able to have all those guys in Iowa? How many will fit on the 40 man roster? Some will likely be unprotected. Won't some get traded for help at the big league level?

 

Some could get traded, that's true. Some could get claimed in the Rule 5 draft if unprotected, that's true too. Hendry has some tough decisions to make. If he can't protect everyone, and they are a Rule 5 risk, he needs to trade them to get value back, rather than re-live the Andy Sisco debacle.

 

But as for is there room for all these guys in Iowa, the answer there is of course, yes. There's no one blocking any true prospects at Iowa, that team in 2005 was about as devoid of prospect talent as any I can remember in a long time. Once Cedeno and Murton made the leap to Chicago, the best "prospects" in Iowa were I guess, Soto, Mitre, Wellemeyer, and Van Buren? That's a pretty sad list.

 

Back to your main concern. I think you must protect Pie, Sing, Guzman, Nolasco, Ryu, Pinto, Aardsma, Marshall and Marmol at all costs. There will be openings for them: besides the players the big league Cubs let go, there is no reason for the likes of Koronka, Mitre, Wellemeyer and Soto on the 40-man. Leave them unprotected, if someone wants them and/or Hendry fails to move them in a trade, then so be it.

 

I would gladly move guys off the 40 man like Theriot, or Greenberg, or Fontenot, if it means protecting a high-upside player like the pitchers named above. I mean seriously--what big league club is going to claim Ryan Theriot in the Rule 5? Or Mike Fontenot? Not going to happen.

 

If we've learned anything in recent years, it's that teams will take a shot in the Rule 5 draft on pitching prospects, but with position players, forget about it. Unless they are ready for the bigs RIGHT NOW, they won't get claimed. So the strategy should be, protect your pitchers and take your chances with the positional guys (other than Pie and Sing, IMO).