Dempster's Sticking Around For 3 More Years

[CaliforniaRaisin]

couple questions

 

Do the Cubs have an option on Williamson or is he a free agent and if they have an option what is it for?

 

And what setup type guys are on the market this offseason, either through a trade or free agency?

 

I believe the Cubs hold a 2 mil option on Williamson.

 

Some notable non-closer relievers on the market are Felix Rodriguez, Guillermo Mota, Tim Worrell, Mike Timlin, Dotel (though he's injured), and Rudy Seanez, to name a few.

 

Bobby Howry is another intriguing name.

Edited October 1, 2005 by CaliforniaRaisin

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I'm not a huge fan of Dempster getting 3 years.

 

yup. i'd rather have had 2/12 than 3/15.5. oh well.

[Mark Priors Calves]

At what point during spring training of 06 does Dusty make a comment about how Dempster is gonna be moved back into the rotation?

[CubsWin]

couple questions

 

Do the Cubs have an option on Williamson or is he a free agent and if they have an option what is it for?

 

And what setup type guys are on the market this offseason, either through a trade or free agency?

 

I believe the Cubs hold a 2 mil option on Williamson.

 

Some notable non-closer relievers on the market are Felix Rodriguez, Guillermo Mota, Tim Worrell, Mike Timlin, Dotel (though he's injured), and Rudy Seanez, to name a few.

 

Bobby Howry is another intriguing name.

That's funny. Howry. He was the guy I wanted to get back in '98 instead of Karchner. But I didn't want to give up Garland to get him.

 

Boy was that a bad trade.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Good move by the Cubs. Dempster has proven he can handle the mantle of closer. I can see him developing into the role much as Izzy did for the Cardinals. I don't think the Cubs will or should set their sights on another closer.

 

The price is about right, too. Looking at what other closers in the market received last offseason, to get one for three years at roughly 5 million a year is a little below market value. I'm sure Dempster could have gotten someone to pay him that much or more on the open market.

 

As far as the rest of the pen, I'd pencil in Novoa, Ohman, and Wuertz. That only leaves one or two more spots.

 

Mitre is out of options, so a decision will have to be made on whether he starts, is traded, released, or uses up a spot in the pen.

 

A decision will also have to be made on Williamson. I personally think he'll be let go.

 

Jermaine Van Buren is an option, as is Wellemeyer. Rich Hill could be used out of the pen as well.

 

I'd really like to see what it would cost to get a rehabbing Dotel for the pen next season. If he returns to previous form, a Novoa-Dotel-Dempster back end of the bullpen could be formidable.

[Backtobanks]

And Hawkins was easily the best set-up man on the market at the time.

 

And you don't give a guy a raise after a top notch performance as a closer just to make him a set-up guy. If Hendry pulled Dempster from the closer's role after how well he has done, he would look like a real slime to other players, IMO.

 

Eh, he'd be justified in moving Dempster to a setup role if he acquired a comparable or better closer in the offseason. I don't think anyone would be mad about that.

 

The thing is, if you look at his numbers as a closer, there aren't too many better out there. You can't make much of a case for bumping him for a guy like B.J. Ryan. Billy Wagner maybe, but you're going to have to pay lot more for him. If you give Dempster's jobe to B.J. Ryan, I would bet the farm Dempster would be pissed.

 

If you ask me, signing another closer would just be redundant, especially if that closer isn't markedly better. We have a very good closer at a good price, and we have other problems to throw money at.

 

The Cubs just signed their closer. End of story. Do you think Hendry is giving Dempster $15.5 million so he can see if there's a better closer available? I agree with you that there are plenty more holes to fill with the money rather than overpaying for another closer.

[katway]

....

 

I'd really like to see what it would cost to get a rehabbing Dotel for the pen next season. If he returns to previous form, a Novoa-Dotel-Dempster back end of the bullpen could be formidable.

 

I think that's a strong possibility given Hendry's soft spot for guys returning from injury. If Dotel is reasonably priced, it makes a lot of sense and we all know what a great job he did setting up in his previous stint in the NL central.

 

OT: When I see all the Cub's signings of pitcher's coming off of injury, I always lament the fact they didn't retained John Lieber. We really could have used him these past couple years.

[Guancous]

There's a rumor that Minnesota would trade J.C. Romero, Jesse Crain, or Juan Rincon for some offense.

[NorthsideAvenger]

And Hawkins was easily the best set-up man on the market at the time.

 

And you don't give a guy a raise after a top notch performance as a closer just to make him a set-up guy. If Hendry pulled Dempster from the closer's role after how well he has done, he would look like a real slime to other players, IMO.

 

Eh, he'd be justified in moving Dempster to a setup role if he acquired a comparable or better closer in the offseason. I don't think anyone would be mad about that.

 

The Cubs ARE NOT, I repeat, ARE NOT going to sign a Billy Wagner or a BJ Ryan, now that they just re-upped Dempster. For those who think Hendry will still focus on closer, needs to come back to reality. Any bullpen help with be acquired through trade.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I'm not a huge fan of Dempster getting 3 years.

 

At 28 yrs old, I am. It's one thing to offer a 36/37 yr old, like Remmy, a 3 yr deal, it's another to offer a 28 yr old, a 3 yr deal. I am pretty sure (there is no guarantee in baseball, mind you) the Cubs won't regret giving Demp the deal.

Edited October 2, 2005 by NorthsideAvenger

[CP_414]

And Hawkins was easily the best set-up man on the market at the time.

 

And you don't give a guy a raise after a top notch performance as a closer just to make him a set-up guy. If Hendry pulled Dempster from the closer's role after how well he has done, he would look like a real slime to other players, IMO.

 

Eh, he'd be justified in moving Dempster to a setup role if he acquired a comparable or better closer in the offseason. I don't think anyone would be mad about that.

 

The Cubs ARE NOT, I repeat, ARE NOT going to sign a Billy Wagner or a BJ Ryan, now that they just re-upped Dempster. For those who think Hendry will still focus on closer, needs to come back to reality. Any bullpen help with be acquired through trade.

 

I agree that Dempster will be the closer in 06, but they could still sign FA bullpen help. I don't see any reason why any other bullpen arms they acquire will be via trade.

[CubinNY]

Hopefully this signals a change in the way Hendry operated compared to last season. He left ARam's extension until Opening Day last year instead of getting it done and over with early in the offseason; hopefully this signals a proactive and aggressive winter for Hendry and the Cubs.

 

Amen

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I'm not a huge fan of Dempster getting 3 years.

 

At 28 yrs old, I am. It's oene thing to offer a 36/37 yr old, like Remmy, a 3 yr deal, it's another to offer a 28 yr old, a 3 yr deal. I am pretty sure (there is no guarantee in baseball, mind you) the Cubs won't regret giving Demp the deal.

 

Wood was younger (26) when we gave him a multi-year deal. I certainly regret that. Guys with injury histories need to be kept on tight leashes, even if it means offering more money in shorter term deals and paying out the backside for extensions.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not a huge fan of Dempster getting 3 years.

 

At 28 yrs old, I am. It's oene thing to offer a 36/37 yr old, like Remmy, a 3 yr deal, it's another to offer a 28 yr old, a 3 yr deal. I am pretty sure (there is no guarantee in baseball, mind you) the Cubs won't regret giving Demp the deal.

 

Regardless of age or injury history, relievers are just too unpredictable the majority of the time to justify a long term contract, especially for the amount of money that Dempster is getting. Dempster is far from lights out, he's probably not even in the top 30 of relievers in WHIP. Those walks are going to catch up to him, possibly in Alfonseca fashion.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

here's some more details on the contract (from updated cubs.com article):

 

The new contract includes a $1 million signing bonus and $4 million base in 2006, $5 million in 2007, and $5.5 million in 2008. There are high-level performance bonuses and bonuses linked to where he finishes in Cy Young or Rolaids voting that could push the contract to $18 million.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I'm not a huge fan of Dempster getting 3 years.

 

At 28 yrs old, I am. It's oene thing to offer a 36/37 yr old, like Remmy, a 3 yr deal, it's another to offer a 28 yr old, a 3 yr deal. I am pretty sure (there is no guarantee in baseball, mind you) the Cubs won't regret giving Demp the deal.

 

Regardless of age or injury history, relievers are just too unpredictable the majority of the time to justify a long term contract, especially for the amount of money that Dempster is getting. Dempster is far from lights out, he's probably not even in the top 30 of relievers in WHIP. Those walks are going to catch up to him, possibly in Alfonseca fashion.

 

I hope Hendry is right and "makeup" overrides Dempster's WHIP and K/BB ratio. He's going to need those intangibles if he's going to consistently overcome walking batters.

 

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

Dempster really will get 5 million next year, it's just that 1 mil of that is the signing bonus. I can't imagine them prorating it considering the structure is set up to be 5/5/5.5 if he gets it up front.

[Guest]

I hope Hendry is right and "makeup" overrides Dempster's WHIP and K/BB ratio. He's going to need those intangibles if he's going to consistently overcome walking batters.

The walks are certainly a concern, but Dempster's high K rate makes up for a lot of that. I'm actually more concerned with his HR allowed rate going forward.

 

Before he came to the Cubs, Dempster was allowing HR at the rate of about one every 8-9 innings. Since coming here and spending the bulk of his time in the bullpen, that's gone down to about one every 22-23 innings. There are two ways of looking at that. The optimistic way would be to say that the move to the pen has helped him keep his HR rate down and K rate up. (Whether it's because hitters see less of his stuff or he can put more effort into each of his pitches.) The less optimistic way would be to say it's a product of the relatively small number of innings he's thrown while a Cub, and that over time his numbers will slide back to their previous, less-than-stellar levels.

 

If I were to guess at it, I'd say it's a combination of the two. Dempster probably won't regress all the way back, but I wouldn't count on him having three seasons as good as this one, either.

[biittner77]

Hendry prides himself on being a straight shooter. I can't imagine Dempster signing this deal to be a set up man so it would seem like Hendry promised him that job and rightfully so.

 

What's most significant about this move is that it pretty says that they aren't considering moving Wood to the closer role any time soon. The Cubs had left that possibility open when Wood had his surgery.

 

That puts the ball in Wood's court. If he wants to get his option picked up he has to stay healthy. He's not going to be able to justify his salary as the world's highest paid set up man.

 

I like this move. Instead of paying Wagner or Ryan $9 million they should be able to get a pretty good set up man and have closer solved.

[NorthsideAvenger]

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4133

 

How is BJ Ryan a "stud closer" and Ryan Dempster is merely a "set-up" guy? The numbers suggest BJ Ryan is no more the 'stud closer', then Ryan Dempster.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I hope Hendry is right and "makeup" overrides Dempster's WHIP and K/BB ratio. He's going to need those intangibles if he's going to consistently overcome walking batters.

The walks are certainly a concern, but Dempster's high K rate makes up for a lot of that. I'm actually more concerned with his HR allowed rate going forward.

 

Before he came to the Cubs, Dempster was allowing HR at the rate of about one every 8-9 innings. Since coming here and spending the bulk of his time in the bullpen, that's gone down to about one every 22-23 innings. There are two ways of looking at that. The optimistic way would be to say that the move to the pen has helped him keep his HR rate down and K rate up. (Whether it's because hitters see less of his stuff or he can put more effort into each of his pitches.) The less optimistic way would be to say it's a product of the relatively small number of innings he's thrown while a Cub, and that over time his numbers will slide back to their previous, less-than-stellar levels.

 

If I were to guess at it, I'd say it's a combination of the two. Dempster probably won't regress all the way back, but I wouldn't count on him having three seasons as good as this one, either.

 

I agree with you about his HR rate, but Dempster's K/BB ratio is below average (it isn't even 1/2 of BJ Ryan's or Wagner's). So, I don't agree with you that Dempster's K's make up for his walks.

 

We're not going to see '05 Dempster for a full season next year (well, the odds are against it). Why don't/didn't we spend the money to get an elite (and proven) closer?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4133

 

How is BJ Ryan a "stud closer" and Ryan Dempster is merely a "set-up" guy? The numbers suggest BJ Ryan is no more the 'stud closer', then Ryan Dempster.

 

WHIP

 

Dempster: 1.25

Ryan: 1.12

 

K/9

 

Dempster: 8.17

Ryan: 12.98

 

K/BB

 

Dempster: 1.96

Ryan: 4.17

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4133

 

How is BJ Ryan a "stud closer" and Ryan Dempster is merely a "set-up" guy? The numbers suggest BJ Ryan is no more the 'stud closer', then Ryan Dempster.

 

I guess you don't look at WHIP, K/9, K/BB, BB/9, or BAA. What numbers are you refering to? ...b/c BJ Ryan is superior to Dempster in each of those stats.

 

ERA maybe? That's about it. Save percentage? That's a function of a lot more than the pitcher.

[RockTheIvy]

That said, I like dempster. I'd love to have him set up (4M next year...less than what Hawkins made) and get a stud to close (like BJ Ryan).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4133

 

How is BJ Ryan a "stud closer" and Ryan Dempster is merely a "set-up" guy? The numbers suggest BJ Ryan is no more the 'stud closer', then Ryan Dempster.

 

Ryan has also shown prolonged success as a reliever. Two years ago, his first year as closer, he held lefites to a 350 OPS, and righties to a 5something OPS. That's absurd. I say you sign BJ Ryan, and then have a ridiculous back end of the bullpen. Because Ryan Dempster has been very good for the Cubs. And no offense to JoBo, Dempster has more of the "closer" skills (ie, throws hard stuff). Hopefully this signing works out, though, as Cubs fans, we should be wary.

[mhuber92211]

We're not going to see '05 Dempster for a full season next year (well, the odds are against it). Why don't/didn't we spend the money to get an elite (and proven) closer?

 

I disagree with the concept that a "proven" closer exists outside of Rivera. There are many of these "elite" pitchers that all of some question marks to them. I think that a closer is more made then purchased. I can't think of one successful closer that has been acquired on the FA market that has been worth their contract. Look at our history as a prime example. Our most successful closers are the ones that we didn't sign in that role. I think that developing a closer is much more important and I believe that Dempster has been an example of that development. Will he be successful for 3 years in that role? I hope so. If not, then it is important to continue to develop a closer as a setup guy, ala Dotel & Lidge in Houston while Wagner was there and Rivera while Wetteland was there. Successful closer stories come from being thrown into the fire or being taught specificall for that role. I believe that Dempster has an opportunity to become a "Percvial/Benitez" type of closer. He will have his ups and downs but overall be effective.

 

P.S. I wouldn't count on having Novoa in the pen but I would count on Rusch being there.