Nomar Open to a Position Change?

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Since Nomar has hinted to being open to a position change, I'd wonder if he would be willing to take over in a super-utility role.

 

Start him almost every day at a different position to give everybody a day off. Kinda like Jose Macias, but more playing time, and actually useful.

 

I doubt he'd be willing to do that to himself, but the Angels managed to make good use of Chone Figgins this way.... so I'd hope the Cubs brass at least makes an attempt at talking him into it.

 

Nomar has been very error prone learning a new position (3B). I think that will go away with time since he's a great athlete, but the super-utility role does really lend itself to that sort of learning curve.

[gflore34]

I believe Hendry is going to defensively upgrade 2B or SS or both which means Garciapparra may not be resigned. For all the good vibes Garciapparra has generated with his recent hot streak I don't believe Hendry is going to chance getting burned in 2006 as he did with Nomar this season. Add this to his diminished defensive skills and one can see Hendry going hard after Furcal. Who can blame him? Pitching and defense have worked tremendously well for the 04&05 Cards along with the 05 White Sox - that's the direction I see Hendry going for the 06 Cubs.

 

do you really think the difference between a 4th/5th place team and a world series contender is the defense at ss?

 

No but, improved defense from 2B and SS along with Wood, Prior and Zambrano making a combined 60+ starts is...

[CubfaninCA]

At this point, what do you think is the bigger need? Damon (CF replacement for Corey, and a legit leadoff hitter) or Giles (another power bat)?

 

Since the Cubs have Pie, Giles. However, we shouldn't get our hopes up for Giles, Damon or Burnett. Now Furcal is a possibility. A slim one, but a lot of the big market teams have good SS's, so maybe the Cubs get lucky.

 

nomar's better than furcal...especially when you consider that nomar will be cheaper, possibly more productive and a short-term replacement. if you sign furcal, it's going to be for at least four years, so you might as well trade cedeno.

 

IF Nomar healthy (HUGE IF), he's a better hitter. No doubt. His defense is awful though. Hopefully, the Cubs look @ the future for a change, and sign Furcal. Put Nomah @ 2b, w/ Hairston as the backup.

 

i'm not convinced that nomar + furcal is better than nomar + walker. especially when you consider the huge contract furcal is going to get.

 

Bring back Nomar to play SS and the likelihood of Neifi returning is a lot higher. Bring in Furcal and the Cubs shouldn't have to worry about someone going down for 80 games.

 

giving 30+ mil to an average ss is a pretty stupid way to go about keeping neifi perez off the field.

 

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

[Tim]

giving 30+ mil to an average ss is a pretty stupid way to go about keeping neifi perez off the field.

 

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

I think a proper response to that is that I don't want the Cubs to "blow" the money at all. I'd rather have them invest that money in the pieces that are most likely to lead the team to a championship. While Cedeno isn't likely going to give you what Furcal would next season, his production would come closer to Furcal's than any other available option in RF would be to Giles.

 

The $50M is a chimera, btw. It's not nearly that much after pay raises to Prior, Z, ARam & Lee. It also has to pay for the closer, another arm, three OF's, 2B, SS and possibly an SP. Being able to fill a couple of those positions with cheaper players is the key to being able to ink impact players where possible. Furcal's .340-.350 OBP would be nice out of short, but it isn't a difference maker.

 

I'd rather make Giles my top priority, attempt to trade for another impact OF bat, have Ryan & Ryan in the pen and hope that AJB's recent stretch is lowering his price a bit.

[CubfaninCA]

giving 30+ mil to an average ss is a pretty stupid way to go about keeping neifi perez off the field.

 

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

I think a proper response to that is that I don't want the Cubs to "blow" the money at all. I'd rather have them invest that money in the pieces that are most likely to lead the team to a championship. While Cedeno isn't likely going to give you what Furcal would next season, his production would come closer to Furcal's than any other available option in RF would be to Giles.

 

The $50M is a chimera, btw. It's not nearly that much after pay raises to Prior, Z, ARam & Lee. It also has to pay for the closer, another arm, three OF's, 2B, SS and possibly an SP. Being able to fill a couple of those positions with cheaper players is the key to being able to ink impact players where possible. Furcal's .340-.350 OBP would be nice out of short, but it isn't a difference maker.

 

I'd rather make Giles my top priority, attempt to trade for another impact OF bat, have Ryan & Ryan in the pen and hope that AJB's recent stretch is lowering his price a bit.

 

You've lived in Socal Tim. Do you really think Giles will leave?? What the Cubs SHOULD do is get Burnett and Giles, but knowing the Cubs they won't. The last top 3 Free agent I recall the Cubs signing is Andre Dawson and he practically begged the Cubs to sign him. The Cubs typically go for guys in the 6-10 range. Milwood and Furcal would be nice.

[abuck1220]

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

 

why do you have to 'blow' money? that's insane...especially if the objective is to keep neifi off the field. how about you just don't sign neifi? there, you just saved $2.5 mil to keep perez off the field instead of spending $30 mil.

 

fine, he's above average (compared to other ss)...but when you compare him to guys that will get 4-5 year contracts, i'd say he's average. in other words, he's not worth what he'll get. why invest 30 mil+ and 4-5 years in a guy who can be outproduced by a cheaper nomar, who can then possibly replaced by cedeno at less than a million in 2006?

 

you'd be wasting the cubs' top position prospect and spending $30 mil to get furcal. if you'd be wasting cedeno and spending tons of cash while getting arod or tejada for ss, fine...but furcal isn't that good.

[Jazz]

giving 30+ mil to an average ss is a pretty stupid way to go about keeping neifi perez off the field.

 

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

I think a proper response to that is that I don't want the Cubs to "blow" the money at all. I'd rather have them invest that money in the pieces that are most likely to lead the team to a championship. While Cedeno isn't likely going to give you what Furcal would next season, his production would come closer to Furcal's than any other available option in RF would be to Giles.

 

The $50M is a chimera, btw. It's not nearly that much after pay raises to Prior, Z, ARam & Lee. It also has to pay for the closer, another arm, three OF's, 2B, SS and possibly an SP. Being able to fill a couple of those positions with cheaper players is the key to being able to ink impact players where possible. Furcal's .340-.350 OBP would be nice out of short, but it isn't a difference maker.

 

I'd rather make Giles my top priority, attempt to trade for another impact OF bat, have Ryan & Ryan in the pen and hope that AJB's recent stretch is lowering his price a bit.

 

i think that last bit is a little much to hope for. 2 of 3 is possible, but steinbrenner will strain a muscle trying to sign burnett.

 

Giles is thes prototype hitter that this team needs rite now. High OBP and above average power bat in the middle of the lineup with good defense. Sign him at 35-38 mil for 3 years and make it heavily frontloaded so signing prior, zambrano, and maybe lee's extensions is easier.

 

2nd biggest target should be either another OF bat in a trade (Manny, Dunn), or BJ Ryan. He is the only bullpen arm Hendry should go for this winter. If hes off the table, than just forget about it, and find a setup man in a trade, and go with dempster at closer.

 

the middle infield should stay as is, because you will not find a better value for the amount of money nomar and walker will command. they could be had for as little as 6 million together (with nomar's contracting being incentive based). Have Cedeno backing them up, and maybe a veteran supersub like Vizcaino from free agency.

 

After that, look for more trades, and bargains. If millwood or washburn are still available and can be had for less than 9 mil. Sign one of them.

 

Fill the rest of the roster from within, and you have a solid offseason.

[CubfaninCA]

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

 

why do you have to 'blow' money? that's insane...especially if the objective is to keep neifi off the field. how about you just don't sign neifi? there, you just saved $2.5 mil to keep perez off the field instead of spending $30 mil.

 

fine, he's above average (compared to other ss)...but when you compare him to guys that will get 4-5 year contracts, i'd say he's average. in other words, he's not worth what he'll get. why invest 30 mil+ and 4-5 years in a guy who can be outproduced by a cheaper nomar, who can then possibly replaced by cedeno at less than a million in 2006?

 

you'd be wasting the cubs' top position prospect and spending $30 mil to get furcal. if you'd be wasting cedeno and spending tons of cash while getting arod or tejada for ss, fine...but furcal isn't that good.

 

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year. At least Furcal's durable.

 

I'm just dealing w/ reality here. First, what's the odds of Baker giving Cedeno much of a shot?? Cmon this is Dusty Baker we're talking about. Murton will be lucky to play next year. Also, Baker loves Neifi, and they'll have to get someone who's established and pretty good and durable to keep Neifi off the roster. I think Neifi's alright if used properly, but Baker misuses him and I hate the idea of having Nomar and Neifi back and Neifi batting 2nd for 80 games next year, after Nomar goes down. Neifi batting 2nd has killed this team. I'd much rather take Furcal @ SS and Nomar @ 2b and bring back Hairston, if Nomar goes down, which is pretty likely, but what the heck, roll the dice. If E. Patterson's as good as advertised, he'll take over 2nd in a few year, and the Cubs can save some money that way.

[erik316wttn]

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

 

why do you have to 'blow' money? that's insane...especially if the objective is to keep neifi off the field. how about you just don't sign neifi? there, you just saved $2.5 mil to keep perez off the field instead of spending $30 mil.

 

fine, he's above average (compared to other ss)...but when you compare him to guys that will get 4-5 year contracts, i'd say he's average. in other words, he's not worth what he'll get. why invest 30 mil+ and 4-5 years in a guy who can be outproduced by a cheaper nomar, who can then possibly replaced by cedeno at less than a million in 2006?

 

you'd be wasting the cubs' top position prospect and spending $30 mil to get furcal. if you'd be wasting cedeno and spending tons of cash while getting arod or tejada for ss, fine...but furcal isn't that good.

 

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year. At least Furcal's durable.

 

I'm just dealing w/ reality here. First, what's the odds of Baker giving Cedeno much of a shot?? Cmon this is Dusty Baker we're talking about. Murton will be lucky to play next year. Also, Baker loves Neifi, and they'll have to get someone who's established and pretty good and durable to keep Neifi off the roster. I think Neifi's alright if used properly, but Baker misuses him and I hate the idea of having Nomar and Neifi back and Neifi batting 2nd for 80 games next year, after Nomar goes down. Neifi batting 2nd has killed this team. I'd much rather take Furcal @ SS and Nomar @ 2b and bring back Hairston, if Nomar goes down, which is pretty likely, but what the heck, roll the dice. If E. Patterson's as good as advertised, he'll take over 2nd in a few year, and the Cubs can save some money that way.

 

See, this is what's wrong. This is Hendry's team, not Dusty's, and Hendry should have the final say on what 25 players Dusty has on Opening Day next year, not Dusty.

[CubfaninCA]

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

 

why do you have to 'blow' money? that's insane...especially if the objective is to keep neifi off the field. how about you just don't sign neifi? there, you just saved $2.5 mil to keep perez off the field instead of spending $30 mil.

 

fine, he's above average (compared to other ss)...but when you compare him to guys that will get 4-5 year contracts, i'd say he's average. in other words, he's not worth what he'll get. why invest 30 mil+ and 4-5 years in a guy who can be outproduced by a cheaper nomar, who can then possibly replaced by cedeno at less than a million in 2006?

 

you'd be wasting the cubs' top position prospect and spending $30 mil to get furcal. if you'd be wasting cedeno and spending tons of cash while getting arod or tejada for ss, fine...but furcal isn't that good.

 

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year. At least Furcal's durable.

 

I'm just dealing w/ reality here. First, what's the odds of Baker giving Cedeno much of a shot?? Cmon this is Dusty Baker we're talking about. Murton will be lucky to play next year. Also, Baker loves Neifi, and they'll have to get someone who's established and pretty good and durable to keep Neifi off the roster. I think Neifi's alright if used properly, but Baker misuses him and I hate the idea of having Nomar and Neifi back and Neifi batting 2nd for 80 games next year, after Nomar goes down. Neifi batting 2nd has killed this team. I'd much rather take Furcal @ SS and Nomar @ 2b and bring back Hairston, if Nomar goes down, which is pretty likely, but what the heck, roll the dice. If E. Patterson's as good as advertised, he'll take over 2nd in a few year, and the Cubs can save some money that way.

 

See, this is what's wrong. This is Hendry's team, not Dusty's, and Hendry should have the final say on what 25 players Dusty has on Opening Day next year, not Dusty.

 

Agree. If Nef, Macias and Dusty are back for another year, and the Cubs struggle again, Hendry should get the ax along w/ Dusty.

[Guest]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

[Tim]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

[Tim]

giving 30+ mil to an average ss is a pretty stupid way to go about keeping neifi perez off the field.

 

Average?? He's 7th in ops and obp amongst shortshops. 2nd in stolen bases and one of the top defenders. Stupid = pinching pennies when the team has $50 million to blow.

I think a proper response to that is that I don't want the Cubs to "blow" the money at all. I'd rather have them invest that money in the pieces that are most likely to lead the team to a championship. While Cedeno isn't likely going to give you what Furcal would next season, his production would come closer to Furcal's than any other available option in RF would be to Giles.

 

The $50M is a chimera, btw. It's not nearly that much after pay raises to Prior, Z, ARam & Lee. It also has to pay for the closer, another arm, three OF's, 2B, SS and possibly an SP. Being able to fill a couple of those positions with cheaper players is the key to being able to ink impact players where possible. Furcal's .340-.350 OBP would be nice out of short, but it isn't a difference maker.

 

I'd rather make Giles my top priority, attempt to trade for another impact OF bat, have Ryan & Ryan in the pen and hope that AJB's recent stretch is lowering his price a bit.

 

You've lived in Socal Tim. Do you really think Giles will leave?? What the Cubs SHOULD do is get Burnett and Giles, but knowing the Cubs they won't. The last top 3 Free agent I recall the Cubs signing is Andre Dawson and he practically begged the Cubs to sign him. The Cubs typically go for guys in the 6-10 range. Milwood and Furcal would be nice.

You're asking a person who just left SoCal for a better job opportunity if someone would leave if offered several million extra? Yeah, I'd say he would. Of course, I'm not Giles and he may not. But I'd make it my #1-3 priorities to find out.

 

BTW - Alou was actually a top 3 FA the year they signed him.

[Guest]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

I know, I was just pointing out that Nomar has been just as productive as Furcal this season when he's been in the lineup. (Despite his slow start and horrific injury.) Looking forward I'm not too concerned with Nomar's health. He's had a rough last couple of years, but more often than not in his career he's been able to put together a full season's worth of AB. Given that he's almost certain to take a cheap/heavily incentived contract this offseason I think he makes a lot more sense than Furcal does. If he's healthy that's great; we should have a very productive shortstop at realtively low cost. If not, Cedeno looks like he'll be at least a serviceable starter in the majors. Either way I like it better than making a huge committment to average production by inking Furcal.

[Tim]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

I know, I was just pointing out that Nomar has been just as productive as Furcal this season when he's been in the lineup. (Despite his slow start and horrific injury.) Looking forward I'm not too concerned with Nomar's health. He's had a rough last couple of years, but more often than not in his career he's been able to put together a full season's worth of AB. Given that he's almost certain to take a cheap/heavily incentived contract this offseason I think he makes a lot more sense than Furcal does. If he's healthy that's great; we should have a very productive shortstop at realtively low cost. If not, Cedeno looks like he'll be at least a serviceable starter in the majors. Either way I like it better than making a huge committment to average production by inking Furcal.

Oh, I agree completely. My preference is to go with a MIF of Nomar/Walker with Cedeno as the primary backup in place of Neifi.

[abuck1220]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

I know, I was just pointing out that Nomar has been just as productive as Furcal this season when he's been in the lineup. (Despite his slow start and horrific injury.) Looking forward I'm not too concerned with Nomar's health. He's had a rough last couple of years, but more often than not in his career he's been able to put together a full season's worth of AB. Given that he's almost certain to take a cheap/heavily incentived contract this offseason I think he makes a lot more sense than Furcal does. If he's healthy that's great; we should have a very productive shortstop at realtively low cost. If not, Cedeno looks like he'll be at least a serviceable starter in the majors. Either way I like it better than making a huge committment to average production by inking Furcal.

Oh, I agree completely. My preference is to go with a MIF of Nomar/Walker with Cedeno as the primary backup in place of Neifi.

 

seconded.

 

i'm also starting to come around and accept murton as the starting lf.

[MPrior]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

I know, I was just pointing out that Nomar has been just as productive as Furcal this season when he's been in the lineup. (Despite his slow start and horrific injury.) Looking forward I'm not too concerned with Nomar's health. He's had a rough last couple of years, but more often than not in his career he's been able to put together a full season's worth of AB. Given that he's almost certain to take a cheap/heavily incentived contract this offseason I think he makes a lot more sense than Furcal does. If he's healthy that's great; we should have a very productive shortstop at realtively low cost. If not, Cedeno looks like he'll be at least a serviceable starter in the majors. Either way I like it better than making a huge committment to average production by inking Furcal.

Oh, I agree completely. My preference is to go with a MIF of Nomar/Walker with Cedeno as the primary backup in place of Neifi.

 

seconded.

 

i'm also starting to come around and accept murton as the starting lf.

 

Thirded, if that's such a thing. I feel very strongly about this, actually. Why overspend where we don't need an upgrade (where, in fact, we even have a very good and cheap backup) when we have SO many actual holes to deal with?

[erik316wttn]

Furcal >>>> Nomar this year.

I hate to break this to you, but after yesterday's games they have the exact same OPS...

I think his point includes durability.

I know, I was just pointing out that Nomar has been just as productive as Furcal this season when he's been in the lineup. (Despite his slow start and horrific injury.) Looking forward I'm not too concerned with Nomar's health. He's had a rough last couple of years, but more often than not in his career he's been able to put together a full season's worth of AB. Given that he's almost certain to take a cheap/heavily incentived contract this offseason I think he makes a lot more sense than Furcal does. If he's healthy that's great; we should have a very productive shortstop at realtively low cost. If not, Cedeno looks like he'll be at least a serviceable starter in the majors. Either way I like it better than making a huge committment to average production by inking Furcal.

Oh, I agree completely. My preference is to go with a MIF of Nomar/Walker with Cedeno as the primary backup in place of Neifi.

 

seconded.

 

i'm also starting to come around and accept murton as the starting lf.

 

Thirded, if that's such a thing. I feel very strongly about this, actually. Why overspend where we don't need an upgrade (where, in fact, we even have a very good and cheap backup) when we have SO many actual holes to deal with?

 

That's a good point. The last thing we need to do is create another hole when we don't have to.

[CubfaninCA]

Bring back Walker and Nomar, and the Cubs have one of the worse infield defenses in baseball. Lee really saves them. The pitching isn't that solid anymore fellas.

[Sarcastic]

Bring back Walker and Nomar, and the Cubs have one of the worse infield defenses in baseball. Lee really saves them. The pitching isn't that solid anymore fellas.

 

Fielding shmielding. A player's ability to hit is more important than fielding ability. A few extra balls will become hits, but Nomar and Walker will be much more productive than Furcal and Walker or Furcal and Nomar. Also, as it has been pointed out, it will definitely be cheaper, which frees up money for things the team actually needs, like a right fielder, or another starter, or a set up man.

 

The pitching wouldn't be so shaky if Prior, Zambrano and Wood played up to their potential next year. Of course, what are the chances of that happening?

[Diffusion]

Fielding shmielding. A player's ability to hit is more important than fielding ability.

 

Is this you just living up to your name? Or do you really mean that?

 

While I'm not willing to do as far as to say that a player's ability to field is as important as a player's ability to hit, or even more important than a player's ability to hit, what I will say is that fielding definately matters and has at least some importance. So hardly "fielding schmielding" at all.

 

Pitching and fielding together is half the game, hitting being the other half. Actually, because in the long run good pitching/decent hitting wins more ballgames than good hitting/decent pitching, the pitching and fielding is slightly more than half. Why is it better? Well, if your starters allow less baserunners, they should throw less pitches, and if they throw less pitches, they should be able to throw more innings before they reach certain pitch counts. That in turn means less bullpen innings, which means that your relievers, on top of having better defence behind them, ought to be fresher, which gives you more effective pitching options, which can help you prevent further runs. If your starters and fielding is effective enough, you may not be able to find work for everyone in your bullpen, so you may be able to run with less pitchers on your staff, so you can have more bench options, which means more in-game flexibility, which, if exploited by the manager, can mean more runs for the offence, or still even better defence and less runs allowed. Furthermore, a pitcher that trusts his defence can be more effective at doing his job as a pitcher, partially because the confidence of his effective fielders rubs off on him, partially because there's no ineffective fielding to rattle him, partially because effective fielding can inspire him to raise his own game. An effective pitcher is often confident in himself too, and therefore better able to get over poor pitches, innings and outings, because he trusts himself and his own ability. Finally, an effective and efficient pitcher that throws less pitches is theoretically less likely to get injured or wear down as the season goes on, and fielders are less likely to get injured because there are less plays to make in the field and they spend less time in the field, which is less sapping for them too, especially catchers. The less tired your best players are the less off-days they need. And so on and so on and so on.

 

Anyway, the Cubs have a potentially great rotation with Zambrano, homerless Prior and healthy Wood, plus okay Maddux and Mr Who Knows. They need to do their best to make the most of that strength, and that means putting as good a defence behind those pitchers as possible without foresaking the required offence. What the optimal offence is relative to the optimal defence, I don't know, but I suspect that the Cubs right now are too offence orientated. Barrett at C, Walker at 2B, Nomar at SS, Ramirez at 3B, Murton and Hairston in the OF, there are 6 positions currently that at the very best are merely average, if not below. Of course, they all (with the glaring exception of Hairston) provide either excellent offence relative to their position or excellent offence relative to their position relative to what they're being paid, so it does give the Cubs a bit of a dilemna as to how to keep such excellent offence/value for money at the same time as improving their defence. I'm not convinced that it's possible.

[biittner77]

Some general thoughts

 

Giles Contract will not be front loaded nor would any other players for that matter. From a business standpoint it makes more sense to delay the biggest payment as long as you can.

 

I could see Nomar accepting a move to LF but I can't see him becoming a super sub at this stage of his career. The question is do his numbers as a LF justify his salary vs. what say Murton could do for much much less? Long term Nomar is better off going to a team that will start him at 3rd base or SS. At those positions he is an asset. As a LF his numbers are probably average to slightly below average for a corner OF.

 

I do like the idea of Nomar at SS with Cedeno backing him up if Nomar is willing to play 3rd to rest Ramirez on occasion. That could give Cedeno 60-80 starts and ease him in to the starting lineup at SS for 2007.

[CuseCubFan69]

Some general thoughts

 

Giles Contract will not be front loaded nor would any other players for that matter. From a business standpoint it makes more sense to delay the biggest payment as long as you can.

 

I could see Nomar accepting a move to LF but I can't see him becoming a super sub at this stage of his career. The question is do his numbers as a LF justify his salary vs. what say Murton could do for much much less? Long term Nomar is better off going to a team that will start him at 3rd base or SS. At those positions he is an asset. As a LF his numbers are probably average to slightly below average for a corner OF.

 

I do like the idea of Nomar at SS with Cedeno backing him up if Nomar is willing to play 3rd to rest Ramirez on occasion. That could give Cedeno 60-80 starts and ease him in to the starting lineup at SS for 2007.

 

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the Cubs, since they have some money to spend, to front load Giles contract? It seems to me that as he ages his value will go down and keeping his salary in tune with that would help the Cubs move him if they had to.

[UBlink]

Some general thoughts

 

Giles Contract will not be front loaded nor would any other players for that matter. From a business standpoint it makes more sense to delay the biggest payment as long as you can.

 

I could see Nomar accepting a move to LF but I can't see him becoming a super sub at this stage of his career. The question is do his numbers as a LF justify his salary vs. what say Murton could do for much much less? Long term Nomar is better off going to a team that will start him at 3rd base or SS. At those positions he is an asset. As a LF his numbers are probably average to slightly below average for a corner OF.

 

I do like the idea of Nomar at SS with Cedeno backing him up if Nomar is willing to play 3rd to rest Ramirez on occasion. That could give Cedeno 60-80 starts and ease him in to the starting lineup at SS for 2007.

 

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the Cubs, since they have some money to spend, to front load Giles contract? It seems to me that as he ages his value will go down and keeping his salary in tune with that would help the Cubs move him if they had to.

 

OK, I've held out as long as I can on this. The finance whizzes at the Trib (and if this is over their head my services are available for slightly less than the major league minimum) are entirely capable of separating the timing of the cash payments from the value provided under the contract. Ignoring the time value of money (it complicates the numbers but doesn't alter the conclusions), if you negotiate a contract with a player for $6M, $8M, and $10M, but you think his production is likely to look more like $10M, $8M, and $6M, you just allocate $10M against your budget in year 1, with $6M going out in cash and $4M held in reserve for year 3. I don't think there is anything that would prevent the Cubs, or any team, announcing at the signing of a contract how they were going to allocate the expense over the course of the contract.

 

This would also make it easier to understand trading a player near the end of a back loaded contract and picking up some of the cost. In the previous example, if you trade the player after year 2 but have to pick up $4M in year 3 salary to make the deal work, you don't feel cheated.

 

In terms of whether a front-loaded deal could be negotiated, the answer is of course. Both parties to the negotiation will be looking at the present value of the deal (my services are available to agents as well as team owners). If all the money is guaranteed, the only thing that might affect the timing of the payments are different discount rates for the time value of money between the teams and the player.

 

The only caveat I would add is that a team using this approach would need to establish the allocation at the time of signing the contract. I would be surprised (shocked) if the Cubs and other teams don't use this type of analysis, they just don't generally bring it up because they think the unwashed fans wouldn't understand.

 

To summarize, all guaranteed contracts should be analyzed over the length of the contract and allocated according to expected production over that period.

 

Now, to analyze contracts with options, we need to break out the old Black-Scholes option pricing models... [i was looking for a smiley for cha-ching]

[Bull]

The pitching wouldn't be so shaky if Prior, Zambrano and Wood played up to their potential next year. Of course, what are the chances of that happening?

 

Its got to happen eventually doesn't it?

 

 

Doesn't it???