Realstic look at 2006+

[Cubzfan64]

Ok, on my way home from work today disgusted as usual at the overall performance and outcome of yet another game I started to work through scenarios in my head for the offseason.

 

Let's be totally realistic - don't view this from a Cub fan point of view, but rather from a baseball point of view...

 

1. The free agent market for the 2006 season is one of the thinnest in recent history - there really isn't alot there that can turn this team into an overnight contender.

 

2. Given that #1 is true, the Cubs HAVE to improve this team via trades.

 

3. From a baseball sense, we really don't have a lot of talent to offer from a trading standpoint - and the guys who have the most value are ones that you would prefer not losing.

 

4. Other teams and GM's are generally not stupid - they know what kind of a position the Cubs are in and will be looking to make "steals" from the Cubs on trades because once again the Cubs will be forced to sell low and buy high because of how the past 2 seasons have gone.

 

If all of these things above are fairly correct (and I welcome criticism), where does that leave us for 2006????

 

I have to tell you that from a purely baseball standpoint I think 2006 should be looked at strictly as a rebuilding year - one in which you find out which young guys can help make an impact in 2007 and beyond. I just don't see how we're in a position to do anything more than that.

 

Personally I don't think there is 1 person on this current team that I would NOT entertain offers for in a trade - that doesn't mean someone wouldn't have to knock my socks off to get someone like Prior, Zambrano, Ramirez or Lee, but nobody should be taken off the table - NOBODY!

 

Hendry and the "management" team should be spending every waking moment evaluating each MLB team and identifying their needs and what they have to offer in exchange. Then he needs to sit down on the phone and start working on deals - be creative, open minded and think outside of the box in an effort to get us to the trade deadline in 2006. By that moment, we should KNOW which guys in our minor league system will be capable of contributing in 2007, we should be in a position to perhaps make a deal or two from a position where other teams in the playoff hunt NEED something we have, and we should have $ free'd up to play in the free agent market to fill in whatever gaps we need going into the 2007 season.

 

I feel in my heart that if we don't use an approach like this, we'll find ourselves bumbling along in the same position next year that we are today with a team comprised of too many cast off's, "potential" players who never pan out etc... and no strategy for 2007.

 

Set aside your feelings as a fan and your desire to see us win a WS at all costs and tell me why you don't think this approach is a good one. I really want to hear comments here because I'm at a loss as to what else this organization can do to right the ship. And please - I don't want this to degrade into a "fire Dusty Baker" thread - if I had my choices, I would prefer a whole new coaching staff, but that's not what this thread is about - there's plenty of other ones out there on that topic.

 

Thanks

[CubfaninCA]

Things to do before April 1, 2006:

 

1. Get Wood and Patterson out there for the rest of the year and get their trade value up.

 

2. Fire Baker. If Jim W. Hendry won't do it, fire Hendry too.

 

3. Let Nomar & Lawton go elsewhere.

 

4. Sign Giles to a 3 year Alou~like deal.

 

5. Go after Manny. Offer Wood, Patterson and another prospect or two. I think Boston will look to deal Manny in the offseason, and the Cubs are one of the few clubs w/ the budget to absorb Manny.

 

6. Give Pie the cf job and Cedeno the ss job in spring training.

[KatJ]

Things to do before April 1, 2006:

 

1. Get Wood and Patterson out there for the rest of the year and get their trade value up.

 

2. Fire Baker. If Jim W. Hendry won't do it, fire Hendry too.

 

3. Let Nomar & Lawton go elsewhere.

 

4. Sign Giles to a 3 year Alou~like deal.

 

5. Go after Manny. Offer Wood, Patterson and another prospect or two. I think Boston will look to deal Manny in the offseason, and the Cubs are one of the few clubs w/ the budget to absorb Manny.

 

6. Give Pie the cf job and Cedeno the ss job in spring training.

 

I think most of those statements are sensible, with the exception of #5. Our corner IFs have enough pop to compensate for Ramirez, who IMO should never set foot on the green part of a baseball field. Johnny Damon, on the other hand, IS a FA. Yes, he's a Boras client; yes, he will ask for a boatload of money, but if you're going to deal CPatt elsewhere and break the bank anyway...

 

I WHOLEHEARTEDLY agree that Cedeno should start at SS next year.

[ER Cub]

Might not be the most popular notion, but Trade Lee this offseason. He will never be worth more.....

[Electron Blue]

Might not be the most popular notion, but Trade Lee this offseason. He will never be worth more.....

 

Replace him with who, though? His value to other teams may never be higher, but the value of a 1B who can hit like he can to the Cubs is very high . . .

[ER Cub]

That's a good point, I don't know who would replace him. But he and Rameriz seems to be the only position players we have that would bring anything substantial in a trade. Since we tried for 30 years to replace our last 3rd baseman, seems like it might be time to try the other side. Just a thought, I love Lee, but if we're rebuilding, might as well go all the way

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Might not be the most popular notion, but Trade Lee this offseason. He will never be worth more.....

 

Replace him with who, though? His value to other teams may never be higher, but the value of a 1B who can hit like he can to the Cubs is very high . . .

 

Not necessarily advocating trading Lee, but if you could capitalize on his inflated value to get yourself an impact OF(Dunn for example, although that would require a 3-way deal), then it might be worth it to downgrade to a Free Agent 1B like Konerko or Mientkiewicz. Or, in trading Lee you could acquire a piece that could play 1B for you(For example, an expanded deal with Cincy that nets Dunn and Casey).

 

About the topic of the thread, I don't think it's the right idea to build towards 2007. Every move we make this offseason should be for the short and long term. That means not selling off Maddux for prospects unless we have 5 better starters, or we're about to sign a better FA pitcher for his money. That means not signing Giles to a contract heavy in years. You can build for 2006 and 2007 at the same time.

[SCCubbieFAN]

I used to be all for putting together a team and a good farm system so you can build a dynasty that wins year after year. However, how many teams have there been in the last 10 to 20 years that have built a dynasty and won several WS? Not many, if any. Yes the Yankees and Braves have been great franchises for many years but how many WS have they each won during their respective stretches of greatness? I want at least a WS appearance out of the Cubs and I don't want to wait another 45 years for them to do that cuz I will be 90 years old. The Cubs have a good nucleus of players that can bring them to the promised land. They are only about 3 or 4 good to great players from reaching that. They blew their best chance in 2003 banking on what they had and the performances the players were giving that year. The Trib and Hendry should have realized 2003 was THE year for the Cubs to finally win the WS and should have made a few moves late in the year to ensure that it would happen.

 

Right now I feel the Cubs are perhaps a Johnny Damon, Brian Giles, a good starting pitcher, and one or 2 good bullpen arms shy of getting back to the post season. Yes Damon and Giles are on the wrong side of 30 but they have proven track records. Let Nomar go and let Cedeno play short. Let CPat go and have Pie play center between Damon and Giles. Resign Walker for 2nd. Make a trade for a starting pitcher and the bullpen arms.

And if you have to make some deals in July, do it.

[cubs121]

wait, do you guys really think cedeno should start at ss next year?

i mean hes gotten his chances this year but hasnt shown much? well i dont know. what do you guys think?

[biittner77]

The first question that must be addressed is the manager. If Baker is back- and there's little reason to think at this point that he won't no matter how much we want him gone- then forget about Pie, Murton or Cedeno being in the starting lineup.

 

The current plan is probably the following:

 

Keep Lawton- he provides the leadoff hitter that they wish Patterson had become

 

Hope for better luck- Healthy seasons from Wood and Prior make this team much more formidible. To save time, I'm fully aware of their track record.

 

Bring back Burnitz -as a bridge to Murton or one of the 2007 FA OF

 

Have the young BP get better from their experience. Novoa, Wuertz and Ohman have good stuff. They may be getting lit up lately but they have the talent to benefit from the experience in the long run.

 

This may seem like wishful thinking, perhaps it is. On the other hand the Cards should be coming back down to Earth. Aside from Carpenter who is good and Morris who is likely gone the rest of their rotation is pretty medicocre. They still have Pujols who's very good and Edmonds who's getting older all the time but they can't keep getting lucky with retreads like Grudz forever. The Astros hopefully lose Clemens and are stuck with Pettite. The Brewers, Reds and Pirates will continue to be medicore at best.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

wait, do you guys really think cedeno should start at ss next year?

i mean hes gotten his chances this year but hasnt shown much? well i dont know. what do you guys think?

 

Cedeno's a tough one for me. He's got great numbers at Iowa this year, but prior to 2003, he was awful at the plate. It's a very thin class of FA SS this year, and Cedeno is cheap and young. He wouldn't have to produce a whole lot to give us good production at the position, but we may have the opportunity to get Nomar on the cheap. When it comes down to it, I think it's dependent on what else you do this year. If you go out and sign Giles and trade for Dunn, then I'm willing to let Ronny develop in the 7 or 8 hole and play good defense. However, if we go in with Murton at an OF spot, an unsure CF with Patterson/Pie, and no sizeable improvements at the corner OF spots, I'm a little less willing to let Cedeno man SS.

[Electron Blue]

Might not be the most popular notion, but Trade Lee this offseason. He will never be worth more.....

 

Replace him with who, though? His value to other teams may never be higher, but the value of a 1B who can hit like he can to the Cubs is very high . . .

 

Not necessarily advocating trading Lee, but if you could capitalize on his inflated value to get yourself an impact OF(Dunn for example, although that would require a 3-way deal), then it might be worth it to downgrade to a Free Agent 1B like Konerko or Mientkiewicz. Or, in trading Lee you could acquire a piece that could play 1B for you(For example, an expanded deal with Cincy that nets Dunn and Casey).

 

About the topic of the thread, I don't think it's the right idea to build towards 2007. Every move we make this offseason should be for the short and long term. That means not selling off Maddux for prospects unless we have 5 better starters, or we're about to sign a better FA pitcher for his money. That means not signing Giles to a contract heavy in years. You can build for 2006 and 2007 at the same time.

 

Well, I'm still against a hypothetical Lee Trade. Who knows, maybe DLee really has just figured out how to be a superstar and is worth whatever price he demands. But you make a good point, CPatterson, depending on the OF upgrade, a 1B downgrade could in fact be a TEAM upgrade. BTW, if this were to actually happen, I wouldn't mind Casey, Konerko, or Mientkivice (:?) if they came with Dunn.

Edited August 10, 2005 by Electron Blue

[YearofDaCubs]

Furcal or Nomar would be nice at SS. I would personally go after Furcal.

[Sarcastic]

wait, do you guys really think cedeno should start at ss next year?

i mean hes gotten his chances this year but hasnt shown much? well i dont know. what do you guys think?

 

But he's young and Dusty Baker doesn't play him very often, so he must be good!

 

Seriously though, he's done very well in AAA this year. I don't think his career minor league numbers are that great, and I don't think that he has ever been ranked as a top prospect, but I'm not sure. He hasn't played very well in the majors, but he hasn't gotten many AB's either, so we don't know how he'd do as the starting shortstop. He couldn't be too much worse than Perez, but I'd still like to have a back up plan for Cedeno.

[Brian]

I'd propose this trade.

 

Williams

Mitre

Wellemeyer

 

for

 

Dunn

 

 

Sign Burnett

Sign Billy Wagner

 

See if we can get anything for Blanco (more dump his salary), let Geo Soto be the backup.

 

Keep Nomar at no more than his contract that he signed this year. Cedeno is the back up, and gets starts sort of an uneven platoon

[JC]

I'd propose this trade.

 

Williams

Mitre

Wellemeyer

 

for

 

Dunn

 

Hendry would get laughed off the phone.

[Electron Blue]

I'd propose this trade.

 

Williams

Mitre

Wellemeyer

 

for

 

Dunn

 

 

Sign Burnett

Sign Billy Wagner

 

See if we can get anything for Blanco (more dump his salary), let Geo Soto be the backup.

 

Keep Nomar at no more than his contract that he signed this year. Cedeno is the back up, and gets starts sort of an uneven platoon

 

All good. But . . . it's too good. There's no way CIncy takes that for Dunn, considering what they wanted earlier. And I doubt the Cubs would feel desperate enough to jump into the Burnett bidding war.

[erik316wttn]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

[Brian]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

 

TODD HOLLANDSWORTH

 

(getting dusty to use Todd properly would be a start)

[Backtobanks]

I'd propose this trade.

 

Williams

Mitre

Wellemeyer

 

for

 

Dunn

 

 

Sign Burnett

Sign Billy Wagner

 

See if we can get anything for Blanco (more dump his salary), let Geo Soto be the backup.

 

Keep Nomar at no more than his contract that he signed this year. Cedeno is the back up, and gets starts sort of an uneven platoon

 

If the Reds would accept this trade, Dunn would have been a Cub back in July.

[neely crenshaw]

with this team you can not do any worse. as long as you have z and prior and dempster.....any combo in the rotation and pen can do no worse.

in the field aram and lee..and then any combo of clowns can produce the same as what we are paying 100 mil for.

how many old vets or young guys could we get that could produce what holla,dubois,hairston,cpatt and burnitz did in the of?

how about neifi at short(obviously he is a bench guy)

right now we have williams that we got off the scrap heap and hill from our system. rusch would be our next choice and last year we rescued him off the scrap heap.

save those 5 guys and perhaps walker, unless you get a true lead off guy at 2nd. then start filling in. whether it's pie,greenberg,murton or a signing we need a change.

[Dunston2Sandberg2Grace]

Ok, on my way home from work today disgusted as usual at the overall performance and outcome of yet another game I started to work through scenarios in my head for the offseason.

 

Let's be totally realistic - don't view this from a Cub fan point of view, but rather from a baseball point of view...

 

1. The free agent market for the 2006 season is one of the thinnest in recent history - there really isn't alot there that can turn this team into an overnight contender.

 

2. Given that #1 is true, the Cubs HAVE to improve this team via trades.

 

3. From a baseball sense, we really don't have a lot of talent to offer from a trading standpoint - and the guys who have the most value are ones that you would prefer not losing.

 

4. Other teams and GM's are generally not stupid - they know what kind of a position the Cubs are in and will be looking to make "steals" from the Cubs on trades because once again the Cubs will be forced to sell low and buy high because of how the past 2 seasons have gone.

 

If all of these things above are fairly correct (and I welcome criticism), where does that leave us for 2006????

 

I have to tell you that from a purely baseball standpoint I think 2006 should be looked at strictly as a rebuilding year - one in which you find out which young guys can help make an impact in 2007 and beyond. I just don't see how we're in a position to do anything more than that.

 

Personally I don't think there is 1 person on this current team that I would NOT entertain offers for in a trade - that doesn't mean someone wouldn't have to knock my socks off to get someone like Prior, Zambrano, Ramirez or Lee, but nobody should be taken off the table - NOBODY!

 

Hendry and the "management" team should be spending every waking moment evaluating each MLB team and identifying their needs and what they have to offer in exchange. Then he needs to sit down on the phone and start working on deals - be creative, open minded and think outside of the box in an effort to get us to the trade deadline in 2006. By that moment, we should KNOW which guys in our minor league system will be capable of contributing in 2007, we should be in a position to perhaps make a deal or two from a position where other teams in the playoff hunt NEED something we have, and we should have $ free'd up to play in the free agent market to fill in whatever gaps we need going into the 2007 season.

 

I feel in my heart that if we don't use an approach like this, we'll find ourselves bumbling along in the same position next year that we are today with a team comprised of too many cast off's, "potential" players who never pan out etc... and no strategy for 2007.

 

Set aside your feelings as a fan and your desire to see us win a WS at all costs and tell me why you don't think this approach is a good one. I really want to hear comments here because I'm at a loss as to what else this organization can do to right the ship. And please - I don't want this to degrade into a "fire Dusty Baker" thread - if I had my choices, I would prefer a whole new coaching staff, but that's not what this thread is about - there's plenty of other ones out there on that topic.

 

Thanks

 

Couldn't agree more. Great post.

 

The Cubs need to develop a great base that will contend for years. Follow the model of the early 90's Yankees (it pains me to say that), and the Braves. Get some home grown talent up to the bigs and let them develop into starters (talking position players here). People often lament rebuilding as the worst thing for the fans, but that's not true. When its done right, teams turn it around real quick. Look no further than the A's.

 

Good idea. I hope that the Cubs do it.

[wastra]

I think that next year, they have to allow the younger players to be the backups- not he 24th and 25th men on the roster, but the primary backups with the opportunity to win starting jobs. I know Dusty wouldn't go for it, so I think maybe a change there is in order as well. :wink:

 

 

Seriously though, Ramirez and Lee are back, along with Barrett.

 

I'd like to see Barrett shopped- I love his offense, but his defense gives me seizures. I think he'll return a little value as well. I'm okay going with a defensive-minded catcher IF they improve the rest fo the offense.

 

Patterson returns, but he should be in spring competition with Pie, and they should explore free agents such as Damon, who would make Lawton expendable. thus, Corey is not guaranteed a spot in the lineup.

 

Burnitz needs to walk. Love his attitude and hustle, but he's just about exactly what we all claimed he'd be- mediocre offensively.

 

Nomar gets a one-year, incentive laden deal with Cedeno behind him. I like Ronny, but if we can get Nomar for $5MM + incentives, you gotta give it a shot. Walker? Tough call. I'd like to see him back, but I've never felt that Hendry or Baker were sold on him. they've always used him extensively, but they've never really seemed committed to him in any meaningful way. But the lack of other 2Bs on the market make his return a probability.

 

I really think it's a bad idea to trade Wood. His value has never been lower sicne his rookie season, IMO, including the TJ period. there's a time when the risk-reward curve for keeping him outweighs the risk-reward curve of trading him. I think that time is now. But if he starts the season healthy, and there is legit interest, you have to keep you ears open next year.

 

The bullpen cannot be entrusted to the same people as this yaar without having at least one proven guy on each side plus the closer. It was disasterous this year, let's not repeat the msitake of "hoping" 3-4 of our younger but unrefined arms step up and take the setup role.

 

So that leaves us Right and Left field to make a couple free agent splashes, but unfortunately also limits the playing time of Murton. Also, we'll have rotation and bullpen spots open. I wouldn't entrust the rotation spots to Williams or Hill yet either iunless Wood is truly expected to return (I think they know more about his health problems than they're saying).

 

 

1B Lee/Walker/ FA backup OF?

2B Walker/Fontenot

3B Ramirez/Fontenot/Cedeno

SS Nomar/Cedeno

that's the returning core, then, the infield.

 

LF ???/Murton

CF Damon/Patterson/Pie (should be in AAA next season, IMO)

RF ???/Murton

C ???/Blanco

 

 

SP Prior

SP Zambrano

SP Maddux ( :cry: darn vesting option!)

SP Wood

SP ??? (Hill/Williams is wood is healthy, otherwise, a FA will be needed)

 

BP Dempster

BP ???

BP ???

BP JVB/Mitre/Wuertz/Novoa

BP Williamson? (they'll prob keep him)

BP Ohman

 

 

So that's at least 6 new players via Free Agency and one via trade (for Barrett)...that's going to be tough in this market.

 

2 Bullpen arms, one starter (maybe), 2 corner outfielders, a catcher, and a backup OF/1B- and that assumes we get a Johnny Damon type already (which might lead to a patterson trade, maybe not...again, see relative risk of trading low vs. keeping).

 

This assumes Hendry actually uses his brain and doesn't sign a bunch of todd Hollandsworths and Jeromy Burnitzes and actually gets some solid players. And it handcuffs Baker to an extent because it leaves him ONLY younger guys to work into the lineup. I think we can all be fairly sure that even if healthy to start the year, Ramirez and Nomar will need rather frequent rests.

[SCCubbieFAN]

I don't think it is a good idea, especially with a manager like Dusty, to have a rookie as your primary backup. The kids need playing time to develop, not sit on the bench and only get spot starts or be late inning replacements. If you have someone like Cedeno on the 25 man, he needs to start otherwise, leave him in Iowa where he can play every day and have someone like Neifi back up Nomar.

[erik316wttn]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

 

TODD HOLLANDSWORTH

 

(getting dusty to use Todd properly would be a start)

 

But that's the problem. If Todd is on the roster he'll be misused. He's one of "Dusty's boys". For this team to do anything in 2006, you first have to start by taking Dusty's toys away.

 

And Hollandsworth only has 3 career games at 1B. I was thinking of a little more experienced 1B man.