Deal for Soriano or Dunn close?

[Guest]

Ah well.. I think we can all agree that Soriano would be an improvement in LF. Not the improvement many of us would like to see (myself included), but a pretty significant improvement, nonetheless.

 

If we put him at 2B and dump off Walker, I'm not too keen on this. I like Walker, and his OPS is not too far off from Sori's this year (and it's not inflated by a really high SLG/low OBP like Sori's)....

That's pretty much always been my position on Soriano. He really isn't much (if any) of an improvement over Walker at 2nd. Both aren't too highly thought of as defensive 2nd basemen, and in swapping the two bats you're trading 30-40 points of OBP for 60-70 points of SLG. (And that's before you make any park adjustments.) That's more or less a wash, as a point of OBP is worth roughly 1.5-2.0 points of SLG. Factor in how much more Soriano would cost (both in terms of 3x the salary and whatever prospects it takes to get him) and I have zero interest in him manning second for us.

 

I'm more interested in him as an outfielder, however. He'd be a decent upgrade over either Hairston or Hollandsworth, so if I could have him for free I'd definitely take him. Unfortunately he will cost a bundle. I'm not sure I'd like to pay him $9 million next season to give us average (at best) production in a corner outfield spot. Given the fact that he's likely to leave the Cubs after 2006 if we stick him in the outfield, I also don't think he's worth givng up many (if any) top prospects.

 

In short, I would probably take Soriano as a temporary upgrade in LF/CF if he can be had for a couple mid-tier pitching prospects. (In the vein of Wellemeyer.) If he costs much more than that, I really don't think he'd be worth the trouble.

[TheDude]

And if we know anything about Hendry it is that he gets his man (much in the same way the paper boy in Better of Dead got his $5.00).

It's $2. Sorry, big time movie geek here :oops:.

[TheDude]

As others have mentioned, the rumormill regarding the Cubs interest in Soriano and Floyd has to mean a 3-way is the works. It seems like a tailor-made scenario for all teams:

 

Cubs get Floyd

Mets get Soriano

Rangers get youth pitching MLB ready

 

Splash prospects somewhere in the deal to fill the holes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really don't think you can neglect the Home/Road splits here. It's one thing when a guy is somewhat better at home, but this is a 300+ OPS differential! The guy is Pujols at home, and Neifi on the road. That has to be taken into account.

[TheDude]

I really don't think you can neglect the Home/Road splits here. It's one thing when a guy is somewhat better at home, but this is a 300+ OPS differential! The guy is Pujols at home, and Neifi on the road. That has to be taken into account.

That wasn't true in NY though:

 

3 year splits 2002 - 2004 - Away OPS .866, Home .836; Away OBP .332, Home OBP .331

 

The road splits everybody is so concerned about seem to be an anamoly to his career numbers. And what's good for the Niefi is good for the Soriano.

[rawaction]

I really don't think you can neglect the Home/Road splits here. It's one thing when a guy is somewhat better at home, but this is a 300+ OPS differential! The guy is Pujols at home, and Neifi on the road. That has to be taken into account.

 

It hasn't been a career trend though. His splits weren't that bad last year and were favorable on the road as a Yankee.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really don't think you can neglect the Home/Road splits here. It's one thing when a guy is somewhat better at home, but this is a 300+ OPS differential! The guy is Pujols at home, and Neifi on the road. That has to be taken into account.

That wasn't true in NY though:

 

3 year splits 2002 - 2004 - Away OPS .866, Home .836; Away OBP .332, Home OBP .331

 

The road splits everybody is so concerned about seem to be an anamoly to his career numbers. And what's good for the Niefi is good for the Soriano.

 

Those were also from three years ago. His away OPS has gone from .866 to .770-something(sorry, not enough time to look it up) to .677. Soriano has always been overrated to a degree because of the Yankee hype machine and his lack of OBP. I'm with BK on what I'd give up for him, but I don't think that's remotely possible to land him.

[hawkeyecub]

I really don't think you can neglect the Home/Road splits here. It's one thing when a guy is somewhat better at home, but this is a 300+ OPS differential! The guy is Pujols at home, and Neifi on the road. That has to be taken into account.

 

It would be different if a guy came through that organization and his splits were always like that. Then you could say that he was only a good hitter in Texas and terrible everywhere else.

In 2002 he hit .319/.352/.582 away from Yankee Stadium and .281/.312/.510 at home.

In 2003 he hit .306/.350/.567 away from Yankee Stadium and .274/.325/.480 at home.

 

It's not like Soriano just made a name for himself hitting in Arlington. He has put up very good numbers on the road in the past.

[E.J.]

How about we get Soriano and then ship him to Boston for Manny??? :D

[TheDude]

Those were also from three years ago.

Just FYI, The splits were 2002 - 2004, so it includes as recent as last year's numbers.

[Dr. Cub]

While I would never suggest OBP is not important, it's my belief that in the 6 or 7 hole (which I would hope Soriano would be placed) I want someone who can bring our 3-5 or 3-6 higher OBP guys home. If he gets on base at a good clip even better. Give me a good SLG% guy in those spots. A walk is great, but as you move into the 7-9 spots the likelyhood of those runners being stranded increases. Again, I am a firm believer in OBP, and believe it's important at every spot, but certain spots in the order have different needs, and thus other stats which may be of better analytical value. Just my opinion, NOT PREACHING GOSPEL. O:)That being said, I wouldn't want to touch Soriano with a ten foot pole if it meant giving up more than some mid level guys. Edited July 29, 2005 by Dr. Cub

[gflore34]

I wonder if he can pitch out of the bullpen.........

 

 

Nice deal, big name, big splash for Hendry if we get him but our bullpen still stinks.........

 

In the near future the bullpen may become a strong point, if Williamson and Wood come back strong that'll mean the starters need only go 6. Williamson, Wood and Dempster dealing in the 7th, 8th and 9th could be devastating. Of course, we're talking hypothetically and as we all know, nearly everything the Cubs try blows up in their faces but, there is the possibility...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Those were also from three years ago.

Just FYI, The splits were 2002 - 2004, so it includes as recent as last year's numbers.

 

Sorry about that, I was in a hurry and just saw you say in NY. I have looked at the numbers for past years, and all I'm trying to do is exercise caution. I certainly don't think he'd put up his Neifiesque road line overall if he became a Cub. That said, I don't think we should expect anywhere near his home numbers.

[CubfaninCA]

I highly doubt Soriano would move to LF, but if he did the lineup would be pretty potent w/ Hairston, Walker, Lee, Burnitz, ARam, Soriano, Nomah & Barrett. I'm sure the 150 point jump at the 6 spot would lead to quite a few more runs, and I'm not too concerned w/ obp after 1-5. Can't have everything.

 

As for Floyd, that would be a sweet pickup too. Could move Floyd to 4th and Burnitz to 6th.

[dacheezwhiz]

i dont like the idea of a three way for floyd. If with our package of prospects we can get soriano, i feel he is far more productive then floyd. Especially if we can get a cpatt/welly for soriano,cash, nix/delluci or we could throw in someone else for even mench. This would marginally improve our team. What would be even better is if after this trade we could walker and midlevel prospect for jacque jones or lew ford. i think the lineup of

 

soriano at 2b

nomar

lee

aramis

burnitz in cf

kevn Mench/Lew ford/David Delluci in lf

Jacque Jones/lance Nix in rf

Barrett

 

is far superior to

 

hairston

walker

lee

arramis

burnitz

floyd/holly/murton

nomar/nefi

barrett

 

 

 

 

 

oh yeah, dfa macias

[AAApittsburgh]

While I would never suggest OBP is not important, it's my belief that in the 6 or 7 hole (which I would hope Soriano would be placed) I want someone who can bring our 3-5 or 3-6 higher OBP guys home. If he gets on base at a good clip even better. Give me a good SLG% guy in those spots. A walk is great, but as you move into the 7-9 spots the likelyhood of those runners being stranded increases. Again, I am a firm believer in OBP, and believe it's important at every spot, but certain spots in the order have different needs, and thus other stats which may be of better analytical value. Just my opinion, NOT PREACHING GOSPEL. O:)That being said, I wouldn't want to touch Soriano with a ten foot pole if it meant giving up more than some mid level guys.

I never really understood this logic. I believe a hitter should take a walk no matter where they are hitting in the lineup. Even in the 8 hole, the hitter should be patient and take a walk to bring the pitcher up, so you can then lead off the next inning with the top of the order. It isn't so much an OBP factor as it is patience. Every hitter should be patient and work the count until they see a pitch to hit, and Soriano doesn't do that. What's his P/PA?

[samhainn77]

BTW, I think this is Dusty's lineup if Soriano is a Cub.

 

LF-Soriano

SS-Nomar

1B-Lee

CF-Burnitz

3B-Ramirez

RF-Hollandsworth

2B-Walker

C-Barrett

 

"Man, Soriano was the leadoff hitter for the Yankees World Series teams, ya know." "We need his speed at the top of the lineup, ya know." "Gotta keep Holly in there, man. He's going thru some tough times, man, but ya know, he'll break out of it."

 

 

Lol, agreed...I can see it now. One correction though.

 

Soriano

Perez

Lee

Burnitz

Ramirez

Hollandsworth

Barrett

Walker

 

 

Nomar hasn't earned his spot back. Dude, man you can't take Neifi out of there, this guy has saved the team. Plus the Walker/Barret swap keeps the whole RLRL thing going.

[CubfaninCA]

While I would never suggest OBP is not important, it's my belief that in the 6 or 7 hole (which I would hope Soriano would be placed) I want someone who can bring our 3-5 or 3-6 higher OBP guys home. If he gets on base at a good clip even better. Give me a good SLG% guy in those spots. A walk is great, but as you move into the 7-9 spots the likelyhood of those runners being stranded increases. Again, I am a firm believer in OBP, and believe it's important at every spot, but certain spots in the order have different needs, and thus other stats which may be of better analytical value. Just my opinion, NOT PREACHING GOSPEL. O:)That being said, I wouldn't want to touch Soriano with a ten foot pole if it meant giving up more than some mid level guys.

I never really understood this logic. I believe a hitter should take a walk no matter where they are hitting in the lineup. Even in the 8 hole, the hitter should be patient and take a walk to bring the pitcher up, so you can then lead off the next inning with the top of the order. It isn't so much an OBP factor as it is patience. Every hitter should be patient and work the count until they see a pitch to hit, and Soriano doesn't do that. What's his P/PA?

 

Perhaps the logic is that the 7-9 hitters usually aren't very good. If the Cubs had the Yankees money, maybe they could get profilic hitters and walkers at every spot in the order. I'd much rather have Soriano than Hee Sop Choi at the 6th spot.

[Blueheart05]

The way I see it, he's an upgrade at either LF or second base, and if it doesnt hurt us long term, I wouldnt turn down any deal that upgrades the team.

 

Sure, we need more OBP, but if a guy that lacks OBP but has power is available, and is an upgrade, do it.

 

I totally agree. Everytime a player is suggested here he is picked apart. Soriano is a good player. No, he isn't perfect, but he is possibly the best option out there. I don't know who people expect us to get. Do we want to improve the team or do we want to wait for some mythical flawless player to appear so we can aquire him?

 

Are the Mets tired of Beltran yet? I'm thinking a change of scenery would do him some good. :wink:

 

If we could get a three way going that lands us Beltran, I'd be all over it.

 

I'm not at all interested in Beltran. what exactly has he done to prove he's worth the cash??? He's not leaving the Mets anyway...

[Dr. Cub]

While I would never suggest OBP is not important, it's my belief that in the 6 or 7 hole (which I would hope Soriano would be placed) I want someone who can bring our 3-5 or 3-6 higher OBP guys home. If he gets on base at a good clip even better. Give me a good SLG% guy in those spots. A walk is great, but as you move into the 7-9 spots the likelyhood of those runners being stranded increases. Again, I am a firm believer in OBP, and believe it's important at every spot, but certain spots in the order have different needs, and thus other stats which may be of better analytical value. Just my opinion, NOT PREACHING GOSPEL. O:)That being said, I wouldn't want to touch Soriano with a ten foot pole if it meant giving up more than some mid level guys.

I never really understood this logic. I believe a hitter should take a walk no matter where they are hitting in the lineup. Even in the 8 hole, the hitter should be patient and take a walk to bring the pitcher up, so you can then lead off the next inning with the top of the order. It isn't so much an OBP factor as it is patience. Every hitter should be patient and work the count until they see a pitch to hit, and Soriano doesn't do that. What's his P/PA?

 

I should have made myself more clear. I was speaking about the 6 or 7 hole. Of course in the 8 hole you want someone to get on base by any means necessary (and I mean any), to get that pitcher to the plate. However, with a decreased likely hood of driving runs in as you move from 7-9, I want a guy who can drive in runs with extra base hits (in the 6 hole) otherwise your good OBP guys (3-5) are getting stranded more. I'm not saying to disregard walks completely, just that I believe it's more important for that 6 hole guy to be able to drive guys home with a high SLG%. I don't believe Soriano is the answer to our prayers, but in the 6 hole his production would belittle what we have now. Also, I understand what you're saying about plate patience, and I'm not advocating swinging at crap. However, if given the choice between two guys (one with a good AVG, great SLG, and poor OBP) the other (good AVG, mediocre SLG, and good OBP) I will take the first guy for my 6 or 7 hole everytime.

Edited July 29, 2005 by Dr. Cub

[Blueheart05]

How about we get Soriano and then ship him to Boston for Manny??? :D

 

20 million dollar, I need my days off, Manny? I'll pass

[rawaction]

While I would never suggest OBP is not important, it's my belief that in the 6 or 7 hole (which I would hope Soriano would be placed) I want someone who can bring our 3-5 or 3-6 higher OBP guys home. If he gets on base at a good clip even better. Give me a good SLG% guy in those spots. A walk is great, but as you move into the 7-9 spots the likelyhood of those runners being stranded increases. Again, I am a firm believer in OBP, and believe it's important at every spot, but certain spots in the order have different needs, and thus other stats which may be of better analytical value. Just my opinion, NOT PREACHING GOSPEL. O:)That being said, I wouldn't want to touch Soriano with a ten foot pole if it meant giving up more than some mid level guys.

I never really understood this logic. I believe a hitter should take a walk no matter where they are hitting in the lineup. Even in the 8 hole, the hitter should be patient and take a walk to bring the pitcher up, so you can then lead off the next inning with the top of the order. It isn't so much an OBP factor as it is patience. Every hitter should be patient and work the count until they see a pitch to hit, and Soriano doesn't do that. What's his P/PA?

 

I should have made myself more clear. I was speaking about the 6 or 7 hole. Of course in the 8 hole you want someone to get on base by any means necessary (and I mean any), to get that pitcher to the plate. However, with a decreased likely hood of driving runs in as you move from 7-9, I want a guy who can drive in runs with extra base hits (in the 6 hole) otherwise your good OBP guys (3-5) are getting stranded more. I'm not saying to disregard walks completely, just that I believe it's more important for that 6 hole guy to be able to drive guys home with a high SLG%. I don't believe Soriano is the answer to our prayers, but inthe 6 hole his production would belittle what we have now.

 

That's too simple. Great run producer behind great on-base men = more runs. That may very well be true, but you are still depending on situational hitting, which is wishy-washy and unpredictable. It is more important to get guys on base so the team will have more scoring situations. More scoring situations = more runs scored.

 

That being said, I'd still welcome Soriano, because he'd be better than what the Cubs have now.

[JWCUB]

How about we get Soriano and then ship him to Boston for Manny??? :D

I really think you might be on to something here. Hendry does want a long term solution to the outfield situation, and has had a trading relationship with Boston. If we could get Soriano and spin him off to the Sox for Manny, as long as they ate some of his contract, that would be a huge offensive upgrade. Defensivley....well....... :oops: But if anyone could make this happen and come out smelling like a rose, its good ole Jim Hendry.

[rawaction]

How about we get Soriano and then ship him to Boston for Manny??? :D

 

20 million dollar, I need my days off, Manny? I'll pass

 

Career 1.007 OPS, first time since 98 not in top 7 in MLB, Manny? I'll accept.

 

People are so picky. Who cares if he can run, catch, throw, asks out of a game.....he's an elite offensive force?

[CubfaninCA]

How about we get Soriano and then ship him to Boston for Manny??? :D

 

Would Theo have interest in Soriano??

 

Delucci, Soriano, Murton, Remlinger to Boston

Manny to Chicago

Patterson, Rusch and Cub pitching prospect to TX