Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bull said:

As someone who has suffered a minor break of c6, I predict he will likely never be good for a starter load.

That sucks. This is probably true.   They have another shot to try to alter the mechanics i guess, but if that doesn't work he's probably headed to the pen.  

Edited yesterday at 07:57 AM by Stratos

[Stratos]

I hope they resign Carson Kelly.  He's a pretty cheap 2 WAR, and they're already losing significant offense if Seiya isn't resigned, plus Happ.

For 25m AAV Seiya isn't a bad deal either.

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, Stratos said:

I hope they resign Carson Kelly.  He's a pretty cheap 2 WAR, and they're already losing significant offense if Seiya isn't resigned, plus Happ.

For 25m AAV Seiya isn't a bad deal either.

There is only so much money to spend. Kelly could cost $9M annually. Add $25M for Seiya and how are they then bringing in the 4 pitchers you are also suggesting they need? When people are disappointed by the off season this is a reason why. They aren’t realistic with their wants knowing the Cubs have a budget they stick to.

[Nolo]

Two overnight thoughts:

1) I saw on some Dodgers fan page that the Phillies, Cubs, and Mariners could be a good fit in a trade for Teoscar Hernandez which got me thinking. First off, this has no factual basis in terms of a rumor as far as what I could find. That said, I believe he's making 14.5M in 2027 and $15M club option in 2028 with 6.5M buyout. He had a down year in terms of HRs in 2026 but I do not hate the idea as an OF/DH guy until we get some of these OF prospects up. He's got some good seasons left imo. 

2) If Cubs don't go for Morejon, which after seeing his contract predictions increase every day I don't think they will... what about these other LHP relievers like Brock Burke or Gregory Soto?

• Soto --- power arm with a nice slider/sinker mix and 28% K rate. Could make a case as a closer.
• Burke --- solid LHP with good 2026 season, has some velo and a firmer slider and change mix. More of an under the radar guy I guess.

Upon initial research, projected contracts:

• Burke - $5-7M AAV (1 yr)
• Soto - I've seen projections of $7-9M/1 year up to $36M/3 years. At the top end, not sure if Cubs will be super interested, but a 1-2 year deal under $10M AAV --- maybe?

Or you think we are satisfied with Riley Martin + Ryan Rolison + Jacob Webb (RHP) combo against LHH out of the pen? I was doing deeper research into Riley Martin and he's really struggled against LHH and seems to gets RHH hitters out at a much better clip.

Pen still has so many red flags with Miller (36 years old), Maton, and Martin all coming off severe injuries. Then throw Brown's neck into the mix. Idk we could very well be looking at a 2026 bullpen season again if they don't add someone, preferably with some heat. Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Edited yesterday at 03:08 PM by Nolo

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Two overnight thoughts:

1) I saw on some Dodgers fan page that the Phillies, Cubs, and Mariners could be a good fit in a trade for Teoscar Hernandez which got me thinking. First off, this has no factual basis in terms of a rumor as far as what I could find. That said, I believe he's making 14.5M in 2027 and $15M club option in 2028 with 6.5M buyout. He had a down year in terms of HRs in 2026 but I do not hate the idea as an OF/DH guy until we get some of these OF prospects up. He's got some good seasons left imo. 

2) If Cubs don't go for Morejon, which after seeing his contract predictions increase every day I don't think they will... what about these other LHP relievers like Brock Burke or Gregory Soto?

• Soto --- power arm with a nice slider/sinker mix and 28% K rate. Could make a case as a closer.
• Burke --- solid LHP with good 2026 season, has some velo and a firmer slider and change mix. More of an under the radar guy I guess.

Upon initial research, projected contracts:

• Burke - $5-7M AAV (1 yr)
• Soto - I've seen projections of $7-9M/1 year up to $36M/3 years. At the top end, not sure if Cubs will be super interested, but a 1-2 year deal under $10M AAV --- maybe?

Or you think we are satisfied with Riley Martin + Ryan Rolison + Jacob Webb (RHP) combo against LHH out of the pen? I was doing deeper research into Riley Martin and he's really struggled against LHH and seems to gets RHH hitters out at a much better clip.

Pen still has so many red flags with Miller (36 years old), Maton, and Martin all coming off severe injuries. Then throw Brown's neck into the mix. Idk we could very well be looking at a 2026 bullpen season again if they don't add someone, preferably with some heat. Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

I don't think Teoscar is a great fit.  At this point he's a should-be DH who demolishes lefties and is just okay against righties.  That would not be the worst thing in the world to have at DH, but it doesn't really complement what we have in house currently.  The veterans in the lineup already skew right, and the kids that are looking to carve a role are generally better RHH.

Second, while I'm sure the Dodgers would throw in some money you can probably just as easy find that guy on the FA market for cheaper?  Taylor Ward has a similar skillset, is a little younger, and is looking at a pillow deal.  Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano have been more up and down but fill a similar niche.  Gary Sanchez or Paul Goldschmidt can't play the OF but have similar bats, etc.

[Nolo]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Second, while I'm sure the Dodgers would throw in some money you can probably just as easy find that guy on the FA market for cheaper?  Taylor Ward has a similar skillset, is a little younger, and is looking at a pillow deal.  Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano have been more up and down but fill a similar niche.  Gary Sanchez or Paul Goldschmidt can't play the OF but have similar bats, etc.

Yeah okay I like the Taylor Ward idea as a buy-low option. Maybe he can figure things out in the Cubs who have pretty damn good offensive coaching, or maybe not. Something weird happened with him last year after a massive previous year. Somewhat concerning but not a bad OF bridge option on a pillow deal.

Edited yesterday at 03:40 PM by Nolo

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

There is only so much money to spend. Kelly could cost $9M annually. Add $25M for Seiya and how are they then bringing in the 4 pitchers you are also suggesting they need? When people are disappointed by the off season this is a reason why. They aren’t realistic with their wants knowing the Cubs have a budget they stick to.

I'm under no illusion that we won't be able to sign everyone we want/need.  I'm speaking towards value.

It's probably better to sign a SP over an OF for us because we have useable internal options in corner OF and a lack of options at SP.  But 25m for a 4-5 WAR player is solid.

Carson Kelly might be a different story.   I'd rather sign him for 9m than waste 3m on a replacement- level catcher.  A 2 WAR SP might cost 15m+

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I'm under no illusion that we won't be able to sign everyone we want/need.  I'm speaking towards value.

It's probably better to sign a SP over an OF for us because we have useable internal options in corner OF and a lack of options at SP.  But 25m for a 4-5 WAR player is solid.

Carson Kelly might be a different story.   I'd rather sign him for 9m than waste 3m on a replacement- level catcher.  A 2 WAR SP might cost 15m+

For me it comes down to would I rather have someone like Higashioka and someone like Holmes or Kelly and Peterson. I would rather take the $6M or so saved signing strictly a back up catcher for one year and using it on top of whatever they would have to spend on a pitcher. Now, if they trade for a pitcher who doesn’t cost a lot or for whatever reason have extra money, sure, I would want Kelly. But in an “either/or” scenerio I would go with the better pitching option.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

For me it comes down to would I rather have someone like Higashioka and someone like Holmes or Kelly and Peterson. I would rather take the $6M or so saved signing strictly a back up catcher for one year and using it on top of whatever they would have to spend on a pitcher. Now, if they trade for a pitcher who doesn’t cost a lot or for whatever reason have extra money, sure, I would want Kelly. But in an “either/or” scenerio I would go with the better pitching option.

Interesting that you mentioned Higashioka.  I know you just picked him as an example of a veteran backup catcher, but I kind of wanted him, before Jed signed Kelly.  I'm glad he picked Kelly, though.

Statistically, Amaya is as good as Kelly, if not better, both offensively and defensively.  Only things Kelly has over Amaya are durability (which is important, I know) and hitting against LHP.  My guess is he'll get an offer like a 2yr/$20m.  That's a bit too much, unless the Cubs still have plenty of money, after signing/trading all the SP's and outfielders/DH.  

Just offer Bethancourt a minor league contract.  He'll fit right in.  Eventually and hopefully, Ayers will be ready.

Edited yesterday at 07:00 PM by mk49

[Bertz]

I really like Gary Sanchez at catcher.  The bat is potent enough that you don't hate having him be part of the 1B/DH mix which IMO helps thread the needle of "Amaya and Ayers are the ideal combo at C for both the short and long term" and "there's substantial risk in trusting one catcher whose legs are made of glass and another who was in Low A a year ago to successfully get you throw a 162 game MLB season."

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

Just offer Bethancourt a minor league contract.  He'll fit right in.  Eventually and hopefully, Ayers will be ready.

I think the Cubs will break in Ayers throughout 2027 and if he shows he can perform in the MLB he can have a job going into 2028.  Besides Shaw, who was a much higher caliber hitter as a prospect, the Cubs don't give MLB jobs to prospects without MLB experience or even expect them to win jobs 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I really like Gary Sanchez at catcher.  The bat is potent enough that you don't hate having him be part of the 1B/DH mix which IMO helps thread the needle of "Amaya and Ayers are the ideal combo at C for both the short and long term" and "there's substantial risk in trusting one catcher whose legs are made of glass and another who was in Low A a year ago to successfully get you throw a 162 game MLB season."

What's the projected cost on Sanchez?  4-5m?

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I think the Cubs will break in Ayers throughout 2027 and if he shows he can perform in the MLB he can have a job going into 2028.  Besides Shaw, who was a much higher caliber hitter as a prospect, the Cubs don't give MLB jobs to prospects without MLB experience or even expect them to win jobs 

I agree, and that's why I suggested to sign Bethancourt (or any cheap backup catcher).

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

What's the projected cost on Sanchez?  4-5m?

He made $1.5M this past year and the team then declined his option and paid him another $800,000 instead. So my guess is he would be around $2.2M -$2.7M next year. Maybe less. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I like Carson but I'm not paying him 10 when I could pay Sanchez 3.

[Stratos]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I like Carson but I'm not paying him 10 when I could pay Sanchez 3.

As long as Sanchez holds up.  He's 34 i think.   But I think they could find a 1.5 WAR type for pretty cheap regardless.

Amaya would be your primary for sure.  Sanchez might not be able to split time 50/50.  Amaya has been a bit fragile himself so they need to be careful who they get.

[Bertz]

I'm generally for just getting your work done on the FA market this year instead of burning trade capital but Eovaldi probably wouldn't cost much player wise and I'd be all over him

 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm generally for just getting your work done on the FA market this year instead of burning trade capital but Eovaldi probably wouldn't cost much player wise and I'd be all over him

 

If it was a Bellinger like trade sure. He has one year left. Texas eats $5M of the contract and instead of signing Gausman or Gray for a year you have Eovaldi. That works for me as well. No real prospect goes back. Has to be a salary dump by Texas. He is going to be 37 at the start of next season. Anything more than a salary sump trade, I wouldn’t be interested in. 

[chibears55]

Jazz Chisholm could be an interesting choice for LF, they might be able to get him on a short 2 yr deal.

Hes 29, he might consider a short deal to try and raise his value for another shot at FA and a better pay day after a down season 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Jazz Chisholm could be an interesting choice for LF, they might be able to get him on a short 2 yr deal.

Hes 29, he might consider a short deal to try and raise his value for another shot at FA and a better pay day after a down season 

I’ve seen projections at $22M-$23M. At that price I don’t see them doing that.

[Bertz]

Jazz is a fun player and seems like a cool dude and is probably a smart buy low option for some team.  That said 

A) How is him playing LF going to help him rebuild value?

B) What's the incentive for us to add him instead of just running Ramirez/Shaw out there?  He was a similar hitter to both guys last year and because of everyone's ages projects to be the worst hitter of the three in '27

[mul21]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Jazz is a fun player and seems like a cool dude and is probably a smart buy low option for some team.  That said 

A) How is him playing LF going to help him rebuild value?

B) What's the incentive for us to add him instead of just running Ramirez/Shaw out there?  He was a similar hitter to both guys last year and because of everyone's ages projects to be the worst hitter of the three in '27

I think the likelihood of his power rebounding makes him a much higher upside gamble than either of those guys, and if he does have a better year at the plate, he's likely to get a really solid payday. Whether playing LF makes a big difference in that, I'm not sure because I don't know what his 2B defense is like. I don't see Shaw or Ramirez as much more than 20 HR max guys at their peak unless something drastically changes.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I seriously doubt Jazz would want to play LF.