Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

If they brought back Seiya that would take away a little of the sting of just giving up on Skubal

I agree. Love to get Seiya back, especially if what he is being projected to get is true. I think he would be fine on a 4 year deal. Maybe year 4 would be an overpay.

[Nolo]

Not an encouraging update on Ben Brown. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

What a great day for news, really encouraging stuff.

[chibears55]

Yep, Hoyer will be shopping at the thrift store this offseason 🙄🙄

[Jason Ross]

To be fair, I wouldn't sign Michael King, either. 

[mk49]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To be fair, I wouldn't sign Michael King, either. 

Agreed.  Wouldn't sign Peralta, either, since he's not signing a "prove it" deal.

[Bertz]

The Brown thing can potentially cut both ways.  Not being cleared to throw yet is obviously bad, but "surgery hasn't been ruled out yet" could be VERY bad or it might mean there's a definitive cause identified?  Like if you told me Brown will be out til the ASB but they've got this horsefeathers firmly addressed I'd gladly take that tradeoff.

Jed passing on King and Peralta is unequivocally good news.  If you're sitting out Skubal because it has potential for ending up a boondoggle then you can't turn around and spend low 9 figures on a #4 starter because he used to be an ace.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

How much would Gray/Holmes/Taira cost? around 60 or is that too low?

[Bertz]

32 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

How much would Gray/Holmes/Taira cost? around 60 or is that too low?

MLBTR has it right at 60

2/55 for Gray

3/45 for Holmes

4/72 for Taira

I'd guess that's a little light on Holmes (he's gotta be closer to $20M per year, right?) but it's a fair assumption.

[Stratos]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

MLBTR has it right at 60

2/55 for Gray

3/45 for Holmes

4/72 for Taira

I'd guess that's a little light on Holmes (he's gotta be closer to $20M per year, right?) but it's a fair assumption.

Holmes might get 16 or 17m AAV but 20 is a stretch IMO.  I wouldn't sign Gray for 27.5 AAV and his numbers could collapse at any time.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Gray had a great season with an average K rate and a really good GB rate., but yeah, it's hard not to be skeptical when you see his velo and age. I'd rather trade for Drew Rasmussen or Logan Gilbert, but there was a report about guys with 1-year left until FA not likely to be traded.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

How much would Gray/Holmes/Taira cost? around 60 or is that too 

Yeah, probably, around 60 or a little more.  Gray is old, but he's been consistent for the last 4 years. 

Edited 22 hours ago by mk49

[Nolo]

Gray, Holmes, Taira, Peterson, Rogers may still be on the table (until Sharma shoots them down next). Going to have to target a starter in trade either way IMO.

As of today Cabrera is the Cubs ace, and if Steele is good he is going to have to be limited in innings especially early on.

The bullpen is going to be important in 2027. I still think Morejón needs a hard look. Just as we can’t expect too much out of Brown, Steele, Cabrera, and Horton starting in 2027, we also can’t necessarily count on guys like Brown, Maton, Miller, and Martin in the pen either as they were all injured and missed significant time.

Then the OF… so much to do so little time. 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Re-visting Detmers might be the best option to get an elite arm at a reasonable price so you can still repair the OF.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Re-visting Detmers might be the best option to get an elite arm at a reasonable price so you can still repair the OF.

I just don’t see Detmers being targeted. He has only 2 years left and will cost substantial prospect and/or young ML assets. I can see trading for a guy who hasn’t quite make the breakout yet, and hopefully he does with the Cubs. 
I do think they will sign 3 pitchers and the cost of those 3 will be around that $60M to $65M, Hopefully the budget is at least $90M. Which would give them enough to fill the bats they need to add.

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Re-visting Detmers might be the best option to get an elite arm at a reasonable price so you can still repair the OF.

They don't have the guns to get that done. The ask was absurd this deadline, they don't really have a baseball OPs guy either and their owner wants to make them a destination team. Detmers isn't happening. 

[Jason Ross]

The Athletic ran another article today. Source, For those who don't have access, a few hitters:

- The Cubs are highly unlikely to resign Suzuki
- Reunion with Happ possible on short term deal if his market is light
- The Cubs will check in on Sato but that will get too high for their comfort
- They won't involve themselves on Arozarena
- A "veteran" in the OF who will take 1 or 2 years is possible
- Team likes Shaw and Ramirez in the COF
- Bullpen is not a priority - but maybe another Maton level deal. 
- Catcher is not a priority - team likes Ayers "at the start of the season" 
- Maybe "budget will be there" for Kelly or another veteran

So far the reporting has been mostly "Debbie Downer" stuff, to be honest. I can't tell if the Cubs are playing a game where they are going to cry poor until a new CBA is in place as a negotiation tactic or the budget just really isn't there. But I'm not overly jazzed with what we're hearing so far. 

[Bertz]

Steamer Projected WAR per 200 IP

Logan Gilbert - 4.0

Trevor Rogers - 3.7

Reid Detmers - 3.6

Sonny Gray - 3.5

Joe Ryan - 3.5

Nick Pivetta - 3.4

George Kirby - 3.3

Foster Griffin - 3.1

Kevin Gausman - 3.1

Kris Bubic - 3.1

Jack Flaherty - 3.0

And then an assload of FA's between 2.5 and 3.  I don't actually think burning a Shaw or Ramirez is the right move when you cam just throw money at the problem for comparable players.

[Nolo]

30 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Athletic ran another article today. Source, For those who don't have access, a few hitters:

- The Cubs are highly unlikely to resign Suzuki
- Reunion with Happ possible on short term deal if his market is light
- The Cubs will check in on Sato but that will get too high for their comfort
- They won't involve themselves on Arozarena
- A "veteran" in the OF who will take 1 or 2 years is possible
- Team likes Shaw and Ramirez in the COF
- Bullpen is not a priority - but maybe another Maton level deal. 
- Catcher is not a priority - team likes Ayers "at the start of the season" 
- Maybe "budget will be there" for Kelly or another veteran

So far the reporting has been mostly "Debbie Downer" stuff, to be honest. I can't tell if the Cubs are playing a game where they are going to cry poor until a new CBA is in place as a negotiation tactic or the budget just really isn't there. But I'm not overly jazzed with what we're hearing so far. 

Holy sh!t. They're straight up giving up. My takeaways what the FO is thinking:

• No Suzuki or Arozarena. Too expensive for our taste.
• We're okay with Happ if no one else wants him. 
• Hey Sato, how ya doing? That's great to hear, have a good one!
• Grisham in RF and Shaw/Ramirez in LF (two infielders)
• Brock Burke, you're our Adrian Morejon.
• Ayers, grab your cleats. You're going to the show.

On a side note, the Athletic/Sharma need to chill out with the negative nancy takes. 

 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Nolo

[Hunter]

33 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Athletic ran another article today. Source, For those who don't have access, a few hitters:

- The Cubs are highly unlikely to resign Suzuki
- Reunion with Happ possible on short term deal if his market is light
- The Cubs will check in on Sato but that will get too high for their comfort
- They won't involve themselves on Arozarena
- A "veteran" in the OF who will take 1 or 2 years is possible
- Team likes Shaw and Ramirez in the COF
- Bullpen is not a priority - but maybe another Maton level deal. 
- Catcher is not a priority - team likes Ayers "at the start of the season" 
- Maybe "budget will be there" for Kelly or another veteran

So far the reporting has been mostly "Debbie Downer" stuff, to be honest. I can't tell if the Cubs are playing a game where they are going to cry poor until a new CBA is in place as a negotiation tactic or the budget just really isn't there. But I'm not overly jazzed with what we're hearing so far. 

The plan sounds like: Maybe we might choose to do something or probably not much? What a dreary off-season this going to be.

[Outshined_One]

Has anyone seen any articles about other teams looking to make a splash or spend big in FA?

I know we've previously discussed the Padres and Dodgers as being candidates for tightening their belts, but it also seems we might be in for one of those one of those unofficially collusive offseasons in the leadup to the lockout where teams flat-out refuse to sign guys to big money deals and/or long-term deals.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Jed has a 250m budget and a 10 war player and will struggle to put together a 90 win team. 

 

I'm a little surprised they're ready to throw Ayers into the fire, but im here for it. The slug disappeared at Iowa but the walk rate was still there, OBP was great. Hope he can quickly develop rapport with the staff, the defense is supposed to be really sound. 

[Nolo]

1 minute ago, Hunter said:

The plan sounds like: Maybe we might choose to do something or probably not much? What a dreary off-season this going to be.

But hey, profit margins and net operating income are projected to be fantastic!

[Bertz]

Aside from not getting a veteran at C (which I would guess in practice really means no Kelly / Stephenson, not necessarily no one even a tier down) and Holmes being the vet they want to keep instead of Gausman this is basically the offseason I've been advocating for over the past month 🤷‍♂️

[Nolo]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Has anyone seen any articles about other teams looking to make a splash or spend big in FA?

I know we've previously discussed the Padres and Dodgers as being candidates for tightening their belts, but it also seems we might be in for one of those one of those unofficially collusive offseasons in the leadup to the lockout where teams flat-out refuse to sign guys to big money deals and/or long-term deals.

I saw a report yesterday that the Marlins were interested in Morejon and Padres Skubal, but who knows. I'm not expecting much to happen until between 11/17 and 12/1 and even then I am not really sure what to expect. I don't see the Cubs filling in all of these holes in a less than two week period either.

Also, don't think I saw this reported on here, maybe it was, but this Bruno Lopez kid looks interesting. Upper 90's, great K rate, and spring training invite (which who knows if that even happens next year). Prospect who battled injury. Would not expect much in the near future, but at least they got a flamethrower in the system. High upside no downside minor league signing.

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2026/11/09/chicago-cubs-sign-relief-prospect-bruno-lopez-to-a-two-year-minor-league-deal/

Edited 12 hours ago by Nolo