Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Brandon Glick]

Wow, I can't believe baseball would just cancel the playoffs like that and not crown a World Series winner. Weird. I guess we'll all have to go into the winter simply accepting that the Cubs are still the most recent NL Central team to win a title...

Of course, with the Fall Classic now over, the offseason has officially begun for everyone. Things won't really get moving until five days after the World Series, but it's going to be a fast and furious race over the next ~month as teams try to get their business done before the Dec. 1 lockout.

The Cubs should be plenty active in both free agency and on the trade market, especially when it comes to starting pitchers. At least, we hope they'll be plenty active.

Oh, and there's the matter of getting PCA his MVP trophy in a few weeks...

[Brandon Glick]

Will change this pinned comment over time to link to player movement and, eventually, lockout stuff.

Cubs Moves:

1. Holmes and Boyd opt out.

[chibears55]

Lol, none of the pitchers picked up their options.

Depending all on what happens with CBA, and Threshold. 

But, If theres a Threshold sitting around 250 mil for 2027, Cubs will be about 70 mil under this offseason. 

Their biggest needs, 2 Corner Outfielders, at least 2 SP, and bullpen arms

Hopefully Ricketts lets Hoyer spend and put together a solid pitching staff

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lol, none of the pitchers picked up their options.

Depending all on what happens with CBA, and Threshold. 

But, If theres a Threshold sitting around 250 mil for 2027, Cubs will be about 70 mil under this offseason. 

Their biggest needs, 2 Corner Outfielders, at least 2 SP, and bullpen arms

Hopefully Ricketts lets Hoyer spend and put together a solid pitching staff

I wouldn’t count on bullpen arms. Maybe arm but not arms. And if it is an arm, probably an inexpensive one.

[Nolo]

I'll start off with my big picture targets, obviously won't get all of these guys but here are the names I'd like considered. Any mix of these would be great. The focus is starting pitching and a corner OF. Let's put Ayers and Amaya behind dish.

• FA SP: Skubal, Rogers, King, Peralta, Holmes, Peterson, Griffin (preferably sign two of these guys)
• FA Bullpen: Morejon
• FA OF: Arozarena, Suzuki, Conforto (DH), Happ (at the right price)
• Trade targets: Reid Detmers (LAA, LHP), Taj Bradley (MIN, RHP), Joe Ryan (MIN, RHP), Steven Kwan (CLE, OF), or another corner OF not yet on any of our radars.

Edited 7 hours ago by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Trade for a corner OF, sign Skubal, figure out the rest

[mk49]

26 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Trade targets: Reid Detmers (LAA, LHP), Taj Bradley (MIN, RHP), Joe Ryan (MIN, RHP), Steven Kwan (CLE, OF), or another corner OF not yet on any of our radars.

I would stay away from Joe Ryan.

[Stratos]

39 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I wouldn’t count on bullpen arms. Maybe arm but not arms. And if it is an arm, probably an inexpensive one.

The good thing is we have Palencia and Zef coming back, that's a good start.   Morejon would be great but it's unlikely with our budget and other needs.

For another leverage pen arm, there's always the trade market too.  But I think Jed will probably go with a modest-priced FA veteran or 2 here and fill the rest out from there.

I could see them budgeting only about 10m for pen acquisitions this winter and filling the rest with league-minimum types.

[macarthur31]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Lol, none of the pitchers picked up their options.

Depending all on what happens with CBA, and Threshold. 

But, If theres a Threshold sitting around 250 mil for 2027, Cubs will be about 70 mil under this offseason. 

Their biggest needs, 2 Corner Outfielders, at least 2 SP, and bullpen arms

Hopefully Ricketts lets Hoyer spend and put together a solid pitching staff

If the new CBA maintains status quo, then the threshold will likely be near $250M (as the previous CBA had incremental growth.. $237M in '24, $241M in '25M, $243M in '26, I'd expect it to be the same type of incremental growth if they went this route.). In that scenario, the Cubs would be "repeat offenders", and I'd intuit that in that case Jed would want to "reset" as not to get penalized again.

However, if there is a salary cap - is it possible that there won't be a penalty, and instead offering time for teams to get back under the cap by '28?  I can't imagine they'd have to force teams to shed that much payroll in such a compressed time period (though that would only apply to fewer teams, so maybe they wouldn't care?).  Perhaps its a bit risky, but if Jed anticipated that the owners were for real and that the cap will be installed, why not push it for '27 - in this case, keep payroll at $275M - knowing that in '28 there's more money coming off the books, and a longer runway to move salary.

This is pretty much me talking myself into signing Skubal.

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

If the new CBA maintains status quo, then the threshold will likely be near $250M (as the previous CBA had incremental growth.. $237M in '24, $241M in '25M, $243M in '26, I'd expect it to be the same type of incremental growth if they went this route.).

I think this is too conservative.  The CBA did have incremental growth within the period of the CBA, but it had a big jump between CBAs.  The LT in '21 was $210M, in '22 it was $230M.

I'd expect something similar this time, ~$270M for 2027 and a ~$5M annual bump after that.

[Nolo]

For those who like to play GM, like myself, I found a pretty cool tool you can construct the roster, lineup card, etc and sign players, project trades, call up guys, review projected team payroll, payroll tax, player salaries, etc.

https://www.dealinthecards.com/gm?team=chc

Enjoy!

Cubs can construct an awesome roster for $270M (2027)

Edited 5 hours ago by Nolo

[Nolo]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

The good thing is we have Palencia and Zef coming back, that's a good start.   Morejon would be great but it's unlikely with our budget and other needs.

For another leverage pen arm, there's always the trade market too.  But I think Jed will probably go with a modest-priced FA veteran or 2 here and fill the rest out from there.

I could see them budgeting only about 10m for pen acquisitions this winter and filling the rest with league-minimum types.

Would prefer them to target one high end bullpen arm, it’s all they really need I think the pen has enough options internally but there is definitely a missing piece, another tier 1 type guy, preferably lefty. 

Tier 1: Brown, Zeferjahn, Palencia

Tier 2: Miller, Maton, Rolison, Webb

Tier 3: Assad, Garrett, Wicks, Wiggins

I am missing a few but that’s 11 arms right there. Doubt Wiggins will be on opening day roster but he’s in the mix for 2027 if he can figure things out. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Would prefer them to target one high end bullpen arm, it’s all they really need I think the pen has enough options internally but there is definitely a missing piece, another tier 1 type guy, preferably lefty. 

Tier 1: Brown, Zeferjahn, Palencia

Tier 2: Miller, Maton, Rolison, Webb

Tier 3: Assad, Garrett, Wicks, Wiggins

I am missing a few but that’s 11 arms right there. Doubt Wiggins will be on opening day roster but he’s in the mix for 2027 if he can figure things out. 

The fact that you listed 11 guys and missed a few, Martin and Hollowell (to name 2), is the reason I do not see a high priced pen arm added. I think if they add anyone it will be a 1 year deal less that $5M. I don’t feel they see the pen as a high priority need. Assuming health, I can say Rolison, Webb, Palencia, Miller, Zeferjahn, and Maton should have a spot. Obviously if Brown isn’t starting, so should he. But even leaving him to start, that is 6 pen arms. Assad should be another. This still leaves Garrett, Martin and Hollowell. And if Brown isn’t starting, but in the pen, there isn’t even a place for them. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 hours ago, Nolo said:

For those who like to play GM, like myself, I found a pretty cool tool you can construct the roster, lineup card, etc and sign players, project trades, call up guys, review projected team payroll, payroll tax, player salaries, etc.

https://www.dealinthecards.com/gm?team=chc

Enjoy!

Cubs can construct an awesome roster for $270M (2027)

I spent way too much time on this

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Stratos]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The fact that you listed 11 guys and missed a few, Martin and Hollowell (to name 2), is the reason I do not see a high priced pen arm added. I think if they add anyone it will be a 1 year deal less that $5M. I don’t feel they see the pen as a high priority need. Assuming health, I can say Rolison, Webb, Palencia, Miller, Zeferjahn, and Maton should have a spot. Obviously if Brown isn’t starting, so should he. But even leaving him to start, that is 6 pen arms. Assad should be another. This still leaves Garrett, Martin and Hollowell. And if Brown isn’t starting, but in the pen, there isn’t even a place for them. 

 

Vying for a rotation spot i think we currently have Cabrera, Brown, Steele, Assad, Garrett, (plus Wicks as a longshot).  Any of them could also end up in the pen (or IL).  Let's say they also sign a Civale/Rea type

Let's say at any given time in a likely scenario 2 could be in the rotation, 2 on the IL, and 2 in the pen.  Let's say Cabrera/Garrett in the rotation, Brown/Steele hurt, and Assad/Civale-type in the pen.

With the guys you mention they probably sign a LHP to replace Thielbar, and maybe another RHP.  The rest are probably JAGs and lottery ticket types.

[Nolo]

28 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I spent way too much time on this

Same here, way too much time. Here’s my $270M roster, not super satisfied with the outfield though.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Nolo

[Bertz]

I'm generally anti spending on relievers this winter but AJ Puk or Pete Fairbanks on an injury rehab contract a la Shelby Miller is something I'd be very open to

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Was looking into Rasmussen and I think his club option next year has escalated to $20 million? Will the Rays want to pay that much or do you think they sell high?

[lfg26]

Pipe dream: Focus on signing Skubal, Seiya, and Morejon. Then focus on sneaky-good deals that can fill in any pitching gaps. Losing Happ hurts a bit, but I don't think we can sign him to a long-term deal. I think his replacement will come from within the current team/system.