Brewers (Henderson) vs Cubs (Gausman): 09/03/26, 6:15 PM

[Bertz]

This is normal in-start velo loss and he started getting knocked around in the 4th when it was fine

[squally1313]

Is there....some other version of Matt Boyd that's been good that I'm missing?

(the start before this was worse, to head off any sample size questions)

Edited Friday at 03:16 PM by squally1313

[Bertz]

Shota's 3rd time through the order numbers are abysmal and the peripherals back that up.  It's fine to consider him a 5 and dive guy, but pretending he's like some gas can of a pitcher is just goldfish memory horsefeathers

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Shota's 3rd time through the order numbers are abysmal and the peripherals back that up.  It's fine to consider him a 5 and dive guy, but pretending he's like some gas can of a pitcher is just goldfish memory horsefeathers

This is exactly why I think Playoff Shota can be a real thing. Give me a guy who can go an beat up RHH in the first inning to give Shota the ability to skip seeing the top of the order a third time and the best RHH on a team, turn Shota loose for ~18 hitters (maybe it's 12 outs) and I think you can really put yourself in a good position as you enter the 6th. 

You'll be on a little extra rest, you're letting him empty the tank a bit more to keep the velo up and you can skip the third order penalty that really affects him.

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This is exactly why I think Playoff Shota can be a real thing. Give me a guy who can go an beat up RHH in the first inning to give Shota the ability to skip seeing the top of the order a third time and the best RHH on a team, turn Shota loose for ~18 hitters (maybe it's 12 outs) and I think you can really put yourself in a good position as you enter the 6th. 

You'll be on a little extra rest, you're letting him empty the tank a bit more to keep the velo up and you can skip the third order penalty that really affects him.

Quote

Shota is my real concern and if you can get 4 innings from him and then 4 from Civale, I'd call that a win.  Especially if you can tell him ahead of time to air it out since we know his success is so dependent on that extra tick of velo.

That's pretty much exactly what I proposed earlier.......

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Is there....some other version of Matt Boyd that's been good that I'm missing?

(the start before this was worse, to head off any sample size questions)

I do think he was pretty good Tuesday. 8 whiffs isn't amazing but not bad, thought he got BABIP'd a little (Brewers had an .222 xBA all game and his BABIP was nearing .400). I think if you get that version of Boyd here on out, it's a good start most days and probably a little more considering the competition. 

That said, we haven't seen that from him a lot recently, so we have to really, ya know, see it for the next few starts. If he is that guy the rest of the way you can probably coin flip Boyd or Opener/Shota as far as I care. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, mul21 said:

That's pretty much exactly what I proposed earlier.......

To be fair, that's not what I'm suggesting however. In the regular season I'd go with Shota for five and then use a regular BP. In the playoffs I'd pick your favorite RHP to attack RHH in the 1st, Shota for 4 and then a normal BP.

I do not want to pick Civale and make him the Shota piggyback. I think it takes away a lot of BP options and choices.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I do think he was pretty good Tuesday. 8 whiffs isn't amazing but not bad, thought he got BABIP'd a little (Brewers had an .222 xBA all game and his BABIP was nearing .400). I think if you get that version of Boyd here on out, it's a good start most days and probably a little more considering the competition. 

That said, we haven't seen that from him a lot recently, so we have to really, ya know, see it for the next few starts. If he is that guy the rest of the way you can probably coin flip Boyd or Opener/Shota as far as I care. 

Sure. I think the bigger point of frustration on my end is that people's opinions on who is a good pitcher or not seemingly are based on their last start/appearance. Which isn't necessarily directed at you big picture, but pointing to his single last start is a little shaky. Remember when Gausman was a terrible acquisition? Boyd pitched well last start and Shota pitched poorly, so Boyd can start game 3 and Shota should stay home. Like, if we're going to do that, just put the conversation to bed for another 3 weeks and see how their last starts of the year go?

Boyd has been as bad, if not worse, than Shota, in just about any substantial sample size this year. Shota has allowed more than 2 ER three times in his last 11 starts, and one of those was 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Sure. I think the bigger point of frustration on my end is that people's opinions on who is a good pitcher or not seemingly are based on their last start/appearance. Which isn't necessarily directed at you big picture, but pointing to his single last start is a little shaky. Remember when Gausman was a terrible acquisition? Boyd pitched well last start and Shota pitched poorly, so Boyd can start game 3 and Shota should stay home. Like, if we're going to do that, just put the conversation to bed for another 3 weeks and see how their last starts of the year go?

Boyd has been as bad, if not worse, than Shota, in just about any substantial sample size this year. Shota has allowed more than 2 ER three times in his last 11 starts, and one of those was 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks. 

Oh, I'm with you in that end. I swear some people forget that more than yesterday happened. And with the NFL, I can almost get it. Sample size of 17? Yeah last week is like a big part of the whole picture. 

But my brother, they play 162 baseball games. Why do we live in a world where two games matters?

[gflore34]

It's too bad Brown is done, most especially against the Brewers, they crush Shota.  Can't do anything with Ben, particularly in Milwaukee - 

[Rcal10]

I just think Craig managed that last series with the thought of Civale pitching multiple inning in the Shota start. I am not cutting Shota down or suggesting he is worse than Boyd or Peterson. But I do believe the Cubs coaching staff feels when Shota does go bad he isn’t righting himself that day. I think Civale was not used because they want him in the event Shota struggles today. IMO, if Civale wasn’t being held back for this game today, he would have come in Tuesday or Wednesday instead of Thornton. Maybe Shota pitched well and Civale isn’t needed. I hope that is the case. But, IMO, whether it is velo , lack of command on another pitch or something else we aren’t aware of, the Cubs are more willing to pull Shota early in games if he isn’t doing so well. And again, no matter what he does tonight I would be very worried about a start against the Brewers. Not because he sucks overall. But because he is very bad against the Brewers. 
I do understand the idea of Shota pitching 3 or 4 innings in the playoffs. Especially if it against the Phillies. They struggle against lefties. I probably wouldn’t start him, but I could see him used as Jason suggested. I don’t think he is terrible, but I do think something is a bit off with him and the Cubs coaching staff can spot in quickly in a game. Which is why he could be susceptibility to a quick hook. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Busch among Cubs who have had at least 50 PA since the ASB:

wRC+: Last (87)

WAR: Last (0.1)

wOBA: Last (.296)

SLG: 2nd to last (.372, only ahead of Amaya)

OBP: Last (.295)

BABIP: Somewhere in the middle so not necessarily due to bad luck

Probably needs a day off in front or behind of a day off for the team.  He's logged a lot of innings this year. 

[mk49]

What sucks to me is that both Shota and Boyd pitched really well in July.  We added Holmes and Gausman, and Cabrera was coming back....  The things started looking better.  Then, both Shota and Boyd sucked in Aug.  Hopefully, they will pitcher better this month.

[gflore34]

50 minutes ago, mk49 said:

What sucks to me is that both Shota and Boyd pitched really well in July.  We added Holmes and Gausman, and Cabrera was coming back....  The things started looking better.  Then, both Shota and Boyd sucked in Aug.  Hopefully, they will pitcher better this month.

For the most part the Cubs season has been collection of local minima and maxima, were coming off a local minima for Boyd.  One would think a local maxima is forthcoming for Boyd or, in, other words, Boyd should soon be positively regressing.  I've no such hope for Shota.

[Soul]

18 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

For the most part the Cubs season has been collection of local minima and maxima, were coming off a local minima for Boyd.  One would think a local maxima is forthcoming for Boyd or, in, other words, Boyd should soon be positively regressing.  I've no such hope for Shota.

I just don’t believe in Shota anymore but if he proves me wrong, OK.

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, Soul said:

I just don’t believe in Shota anymore but if he proves me wrong, OK.

Neither do I, very, very similar to last season, had a stretch of effectiveness and finishing up as a non-option.

Edited Friday at 07:01 PM by gflore34

[CubinNY]

37 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Neither do I, very, very similar to last season, had a stretch of effectiveness and finishing up as a non-option.

He seems to wear down a bit during the season. Not a bad idea to have a six man rotation of give him more rest on the front end of the season. He's a good pitcher - but he doesn't have much room for performance decreases/ebb and flow.