Brewers (Henderson) vs Cubs (Gausman): 09/03/26, 6:15 PM

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree. And I rbi one reason Civale wasn’t used in the Brewers series was a sign Craig will have a quick hook for Shota, if needed. 

That's a good catch, Craig' had enough and rightly so.

[squally1313]

I’d certainly prefer home field advantage over having to go to Philly, but I really don’t think it’s the best long term plan to treat the next 21 games like some sort of extended playoff and make pitching decisions accordingly. What, we’re just going to pull shota, and Boyd, and I guess Peterson now, at the first sign of trouble, and then…stretch gausman and Holmes as much as possible when it’s their turn because we need 5 innings from the bullpen the other three times through the rotation?

[We Got The Whole 9]

The pen is terrible and Craig needs to get as much length from his starters as he possibly can. 

[gflore34]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I’d certainly prefer home field advantage over having to go to Philly, but I really don’t think it’s the best long term plan to treat the next 21 games like some sort of extended playoff and make pitching decisions accordingly. What, we’re just going to pull shota, and Boyd, and I guess Peterson now, at the first sign of trouble, and then…stretch gausman and Holmes as much as possible when it’s their turn because we need 5 innings from the bullpen the other three times through the rotation?

Boyd' been lately okay, it's Shota that's the problem, he's a ticking bomb, it's not a matter of if but, when is he going throw multiple gopher balls. Until a playoff spot is clinched he's got to be on a short leash.

[mul21]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I’d certainly prefer home field advantage over having to go to Philly, but I really don’t think it’s the best long term plan to treat the next 21 games like some sort of extended playoff and make pitching decisions accordingly. What, we’re just going to pull shota, and Boyd, and I guess Peterson now, at the first sign of trouble, and then…stretch gausman and Holmes as much as possible when it’s their turn because we need 5 innings from the bullpen the other three times through the rotation?

Shota is my real concern and if you can get 4 innings from him and then 4 from Civale, I'd call that a win.  Especially if you can tell him ahead of time to air it out since we know his success is so dependent on that extra tick of velo.  Boyd is generally fine unless his location is way off and he's missing badly arm side.  Peterson is what he is, you're going to get some solid outings and some clunkers like you do with almost any 5th starter out there.

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I’d certainly prefer home field advantage over having to go to Philly, but I really don’t think it’s the best long term plan to treat the next 21 games like some sort of extended playoff and make pitching decisions accordingly. What, we’re just going to pull shota, and Boyd, and I guess Peterson now, at the first sign of trouble, and then…stretch gausman and Holmes as much as possible when it’s their turn because we need 5 innings from the bullpen the other three times through the rotation?

I think Shota is different than both Boyd and Peterson. If Shota isn’t throwing 92 and keeping the ball up in the zone and missing the zone on his other pitches, it is just a matter of time before homers come. I was against the idea of a short leash for Boyd and even Peterson. But now with that 14th pitcher, I think you do need to be careful with Shota. Or tell him to go as hard as he could and try getting 4 out of him and use Civale next. Hopefully between the two you get 7. I agree you can’t pull starters early every start. Can’t go to the pen the first bad inning a starter has. But in Shota’s case, specifically, it appears the coaching staff knows when he doesn’t look right. So have Civale ready. 

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The deadline acquisitions paid off in both wins. 

Yep...deadline acquisitions in the series:

14.2 IP, 12 H, 3 ER

6-11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI

[Soul]

Just my opinion, but Civale should be starting tonight instead of Shota.

I don’t like this at all. He’s likely going to get shelled.

Maybe the Marlins pitcher will live up to his name.

[squally1313]

In the last thirty days

• Cubs lefty starter X: 4.85 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 2.12 HR/9, 19.4% HR/FB, .224 BABIP, 5.16 ERA/5.56 ERA+/6.40 FIP/5.16 xFIP
• Cubs lefty starter Y: 11.51 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 3.57 HR/9, 23.7% HR/FB, .339 BABIP, 5.96 ERA/4.16 ERA+/6.89 FIP/4.25 xFIP

To be clear, I think both of these guys are better than this. That's not to say 'Good' or 'Should definitely start a playoff game'. They're both obviously struggling quite a bit, but them pitching well is a step above any of our other non-Gausman/Holmes options, so turning one or both of them into de-facto openers or short stint guys so that we can hypothetically chase wins with Aaron Civale and his 4.73 FIP seems like doing a little too much for pretty minimal upside. 

 

[Bertz]

It's wild how people talk about Shota when he's got a 4.01 ERA

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's wild how people talk about Shota when he's got a 4.01 ERA

Sure, but his performances are 2 sides of a coin and it's pretty easy to tell which one you're getting just based on velocity alone in each start.  He's got the talent to give you 7 shutout innings but he can also get shelled and give up a half dozen gopher balls in 3 innings if he's not right.

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's wild how people talk about Shota when he's got a 4.01 ERA

I don't believe this matters when, as of late, the guy's been a gopher ball machine.  As been stated when Shota' not getting that extra tick on the FB, the cornucopia of HR's is in order.

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I don't believe this matters when, as of late, the guy's been a gopher ball machine.  As been stated when Shota' not getting that extra tick on the FB, the cornucopia of HR's is in order.

He’s similar to Jason Hammel in the sense that you need to keep a close eye on him and have a quick hook. If bad Shota emerges, like in the playoffs against Milwaukee, a crooked number by the opposing team is bad news in a best of whatever. 
 

I’m not comfortable starting someone who’s broken the ML record for most starts by a left handed pitcher with 3 home runs allowed. 

Edited Friday at 03:03 PM by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Sure, but his performances are 2 sides of a coin and it's pretty easy to tell which one you're getting just based on velocity alone in each start.  He's got the talent to give you 7 shutout innings but he can also get shelled and give up a half dozen gopher balls in 3 innings if he's not right.

Is this actually statistically accurate or is it just vibes/recency bias? FG has his average fastball at 92.0 in his last start against Cincinnati, which was his highest average velocity since June 29th, and it was his worst start of the season. His lowest average fastball velocity was July 19th, against Minnesota, where it was 90.4, and he pitched 7 scoreless innings. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I don't believe this matters when, as of late, the guy's been a gopher ball machine.  As been stated when Shota' not getting that extra tick on the FB, the cornucopia of HR's is in order.

Shota's fastball was 92 last time out, above his season average

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Is this actually statistically accurate or is it just vibes/recency bias? FG has his average fastball at 92.0 in his last start against Cincinnati, which was his highest average velocity since June 29th, and it was his worst start of the season. His lowest average fastball velocity was July 19th, against Minnesota, where it was 90.4, and he pitched 7 scoreless innings. 

It dropped significantly throughout the start if I recall correctly.  The announcers even commented on it early and then later he was sitting more 91 and getting shelled.

[UMFan83]

Busch among Cubs who have had at least 50 PA since the ASB:

wRC+: Last (87)

WAR: Last (0.1)

wOBA: Last (.296)

SLG: 2nd to last (.372, only ahead of Amaya)

OBP: Last (.295)

BABIP: Somewhere in the middle so not necessarily due to bad luck

[Geographyhater8888]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think Shota is different than both Boyd and Peterson. If Shota isn’t throwing 92 and keeping the ball up in the zone and missing the zone on his other pitches, it is just a matter of time before homers come. I was against the idea of a short leash for Boyd and even Peterson. But now with that 14th pitcher, I think you do need to be careful with Shota. Or tell him to go as hard as he could and try getting 4 out of him and use Civale next. Hopefully between the two you get 7. I agree you can’t pull starters early every start. Can’t go to the pen the first bad inning a starter has. But in Shota’s case, specifically, it appears the coaching staff knows when he doesn’t look right. So have Civale ready. 

Didn’t he break the record for most games of allowing 3 home runs by a left handed pitcher? Unless the wind is blowing in 15 mph then I want no part of him in a playoff game. One time through the order with a tight leash.

[gflore34]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Shota's fastball was 92 last time out, above his season average

Maybe someone has access to the data, it appeared he had the extra tick early gradually fading, at which point, he got shelled.

[Rcal10]

Maybe it isn’t velo entirely with Shota. But it seems the Cubs coaches are pretty aware if Shota is going to be good or not when he pitches. They took him out in the 3rd inning against the Mariners. Something they didn’t like was happening. I agree he could have a good start. Maybe Civale isn’t used here. But I also think the Cubs will be watching him very closely. And, honestly, I don’t want him starting against the Brewers next week no matter how he pitches today. Hopefully Assad is back and he can take that start. 

[mul21]

Stephenson HR was on a 91.1 mph pitch

Myers was on a 90.9 mph pitch

Looks like the others were on off speed pitches

[Jason Ross]

On Shota's last start there was plenty of good and bad. 

The good:
- avg fastball was 92.0mph
- 15 whiffs
- 67% strike% 

The bad:
- 5th inning fastball velo was 90.9
- Of the three home runs, they all came with two out in the 4th inning or later
- Of the three home runs, two were on fastballs with average velo of 91.1mph and 90.6mph

When his fastball sits north of 91mph it's useful and last start was a good microcosm of that. He was great early, he struggled to maintain that velocity late, and he got tagged on two fastballs when the velo was dipping. No, the Cubs should not treat him as a four-inning arm here on out; you can in the playoffs and for that aspect I think he's going. to be an asset. As squally said, the Cubs shouldn't treat the next month as an extended playoff series. But also as Berz said the hand wringing on Shota is just bonkers. He's a fine pitcher. He does give up home runs. The trick to him is that you know they're coming so it's a lot of sequencing. Imanaga has a 4.01 ERA and a 3.80 xERA. He's better than some of ya'll act, despite the obvious flaws.

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Didn’t he break the record for most games of allowing 3 home runs by a left handed pitcher? Unless the wind is blowing in 15 mph then I want no part of him in a playoff game. One time through the order with a tight leash.

I don't think he's making the playoff roster, his last regular season appearance is his last as a Cub.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It dropped significantly throughout the start if I recall correctly.  The announcers even commented on it early and then later he was sitting more 91 and getting shelled.

I mean, I don't know what you really think can be done in that scenario. He struck out De La Cruz on 93 in the third, gave up a home run on a breaking pitch in the fourth (every other in play pitch was a fastball over 92 MPH), and then gave up 2 home runs in the fifth on 90.9 and 91.1. Just....as soon as he drops a single MPH on a single fastball, someone better be ready? Just auto pull after 4 innings? How do you explain his lowest average velocity coming in a start where he went 7 scoreless?

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Didn’t he break the record for most games of allowing 3 home runs by a left handed pitcher? Unless the wind is blowing in 15 mph then I want no part of him in a playoff game. One time through the order with a tight leash.

Well, I highly doubt he pitches in  the WC round, even though the Phillies are bad against left hands pitchers. I think it is Holmes, Gausman and Boyd.