Why is Happ still in the starting lineup?

[PackLandVA]

2 games is hardly a "mini streak".

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, PackLandVA said:

2 games is hardly a "mini streak".

Correct, it not really a streak, but to my point, weve seen him go off for 2-3 games and everyone gets excited that hes getting hot and beginning a good streak, but its not, its just a hot couple games.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Correct, it not really a streak, but to my point, weve seen him go off for 2-3 games and everyone gets excited that hes getting hot and beginning a good streak, but its not, its just a hot couple games.

Chibear you have suggested Happ was finished for 5 years now. Eventually you are going to be right, and then will tell everyone how right you were. Hell, even a broken clock is right twice a day. 
Bottom line is Happ has had a very consistent line at the end of the year  since he has been a Cub. I hate the long slumps and terrible play. But he has done it every year. Yet every year you suggest it’s a sign he is finished, or when he is going bad, you suggest he sucks as a ballplayer. It’s like you never watched the Cubs before, and I know you do. I swear you have a memory of a goldfish. 
It is fine not to like a guy because you don’t like his streakinesss. As I said, it drives me crazy too. But every damn time he goes in a 3/40 spell you are quick to mention it, suggest he sucks and also suggest he is finished. Of course when he is playing well you stay silent until his next bad stretch, which anyone who watches the Cubs knows will come again.
At the end of the year he will be around a OPS+ of 115-120. That and the best defensive left fielder in the game is not someone who sucks. 

[squally1313]

a couple things can be true at once:

1. to date, this is (probably) ian happ's worst offensive season of his career. 2018 was similarly bad and led to him spending the first half of 2019 in AAA, but for all practical purposes this is a clear step back from what we're used to seeing. the K rate is seriously troubling, and after finally getting it under 30% in july (28%), it's 37.5% in august. the output itself is fine enough, but xwOBA thinks it should be worse and basically has him as a below average hitter YTD, which makes it really tough to be a productive player in a corner outfield spot, even though, to his credit, he's playing it better than probably anyone else out there. while, yes, he's streaky, and one could be coming, in the past the hot and cold streaks were underpinned with relatively steady metrics and were more driven by BABIP and HR/FB luck. the under the hood numbers are unquestionably worse than they have been in a long time.

2. while him going from a 120 wRC hitter to a 120 wRC hitter against RHPs is an obvious step back, the team addressed where he was hurting the club the most. you can argue on whether taylor is a lefty killer or just a league average bat there, but either way it's a sizable step up from what we were getting from happ, i'm sure the plan was probably shaw 6 weeks ago when this started becoming obvious, but they had to pivot, and they did. ian happ against RHP is a good baseball player, probably the 3rd or 4th best hitter against them on the team. he's being used correctly. 

[UMFan83]

Ian Happ through game 119 last year:

.227/.324/.386/.710

Ian Happ in 2026:

.216/.324/.420/.745

Last year Happ had a .911 OPS in his last 41 games to end up near his career norms.  At some point Happ is going to slump and not compensate for it with a hot streak but until then you always have to assume a stat normalizing hot streak is coming.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Ian Happ through game 119 last year:

.227/.324/.386/.710

Ian Happ in 2026:

.216/.324/.420/.745

Last year Happ had a .911 OPS in his last 41 games to end up near his career norms.  At some point Happ is going to slump and not compensate for it with a hot streak but until then you always have to assume a stat normalizing hot streak is coming.

Exactly. And every cold streak we don’t have to be reminded that he sucks. He doesn’t suck. But it doesnt suck the way he does about getting to his numbers. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

 

...

Edited Monday at 11:09 PM by chibears55

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Chibear you have suggested Happ was finished for 5 years now. Eventually you are going to be right, and then will tell everyone how right you were. Hell, even a broken clock is right twice a day. 
Bottom line is Happ has had a very consistent line at the end of the year  since he has been a Cub. I hate the long slumps and terrible play. But he has done it every year. Yet every year you suggest it’s a sign he is finished, or when he is going bad, you suggest he sucks as a ballplayer. It’s like you never watched the Cubs before, and I know you do. I swear you have a memory of a goldfish. 
It is fine not to like a guy because you don’t like his streakinesss. As I said, it drives me crazy too. But every damn time he goes in a 3/40 spell you are quick to mention it, suggest he sucks and also suggest he is finished. Of course when he is playing well you stay silent until his next bad stretch, which anyone who watches the Cubs knows will come again.
At the end of the year he will be around a OPS+ of 115-120. That and the best defensive left fielder in the game is not someone who sucks. 

42 for last 208 with 74 Ks, he hasnt really played well since June 1st, til his last 2 games. 

Ill call him or any player out that playing this bad , and i have and will always cheer them on when they play well. You on the other hand, had nothing to say to me since he had those 3 games at the end of May when he hit those 3 homers in consecutive games,  because he has been terrible since June 1st. 

like clockwork he has a couple good games and youre here telling us now, how hes a great defender and is a hot streak away from possibly getting close to his ops plus stat like it doesn't matter that he's been terrible for 2.5 months with the bat because he might get hot the last month and end up close to his average in a metric OPS+ stat.

I've had recent posts that says I hope he turns it around, I've even posted that he would break out of his slump in the series against the Pirates, I even mentioned the other day I hope he gets 7 more homers to reach 200 as a cubs,  I always root for Happ to play well,  and im usually one of the first to cheer him on when he homers or gets a big hit, so that's a lie that I say nothing when he does well.

Theres been a few posters ripping on Happ more than me the last week or two, how come you haven't called them out on it ?

 

Edited yesterday at 12:32 AM by chibears55

[PackLandVA]

Maybe he has a hot streak(s) to close out the year.  Maybe he doesn't. But maybe, just maybe, he be taken out of the middle of the order until he shows some continued success and/or way less Ks.

[squally1313]

6 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Ian Happ through game 119 last year:

.227/.324/.386/.710

Ian Happ in 2026:

.216/.324/.420/.745

Last year Happ had a .911 OPS in his last 41 games to end up near his career norms.  At some point Happ is going to slump and not compensate for it with a hot streak but until then you always have to assume a stat normalizing hot streak is coming.

Caveat: I love Happ and I hope you’re right. But. On August 10th last year Ian had a .316 wOBA and a .342 xwOBA. There were measurable reasons to expect an uptick in performance. 
 

Right now he’s at .327 wOBA and .311 xwOBA. Mostly because his K rate is ten percentage points higher. There’s no real sign of an impending breakout, it’s just ‘well he’s done it before’. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, squally1313 said:

 

Right now he’s at .327 wOBA and .311 xwOBA. Mostly because his K rate is ten percentage points higher. There’s no real sign of an impending breakout, it’s just ‘well he’s done it before’. 

That’s not unique to Happ though. Would you say the same for Suzuki whose xwOBA is 27 points higher than his true wOBA despite his rate stats being on brand with his career average? Ramirez has more signs of impending regression than anyone else based on both the above and his limited sample size.. They’ve had a lot of BABIP luck, but their pulled fly ball rate can circumvent their disparity in team xwOBA to their actual wOBA which the Cubs lead baseball in.

Although the Cubs 6 runs/game average and 350 wOBA since June 11th while only 10th in xWOBA at 317 is interesting.

Edited 17 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s not unique to Happ though. Would you say the same for Suzuki whose xwOBA is 27 points higher than his true wOBA despite his rate stats being on brand with his career average? Ramirez has more signs of impending regression than anyone else. They’ve had a lot of BABIP luck, but their pulled fly ball rate can circumvent their disparity in team xwOBA to their actual wOBA which the Cubs lead baseball in.

Although the Cubs 6 runs/game average and 350 wOBA since June 11th while only 10th in xWOBA at 317 is interesting.

I mean, that all reads to me like a team that has collectively gotten better offensive results than they likely should have over that stretch. Do I think Suzuki is due for some regression too? Yeah. I know you’ve emphasized pulled fly ball rates and I’m admittedly not totally up to speed there, but that wOBA/xwOBA gap just seems far too large to me  

10th or 11th in terms of offensive production with comfortably the best defense in baseball is, high level, how I’d describe this group of position players. Which, to be clear, makes them really good! We got some luck when we needed some luck, when our pitching was terrible, and hopefully we either stay running hot or our acquisitions and improving health on the pitching side counteract our offensive results falling back into line. 

[BKHoo]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s not unique to Happ though. Would you say the same for Suzuki whose xwOBA is 27 points higher than his true wOBA despite his rate stats being on brand with his career average? Ramirez has more signs of impending regression than anyone else based on both the above and his limited sample size.. They’ve had a lot of BABIP luck, but their pulled fly ball rate can circumvent their disparity in team xwOBA to their actual wOBA which the Cubs lead baseball in.

Although the Cubs 6 runs/game average and 350 wOBA since June 11th while only 10th in xWOBA at 317 is interesting.

These numbers scare me a bit.  We have an offense primed to regress overall. 

[Geographyhater8888]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, that all reads to me like a team that has collectively gotten better offensive results than they likely should have over that stretch. Do I think Suzuki is due for some regression too? Yeah. I know you’ve emphasized pulled fly ball rates and I’m admittedly not totally up to speed there, but that wOBA/xwOBA gap just seems far too large to me  

10th or 11th in terms of offensive production with comfortably the best defense in baseball is, high level, how I’d describe this group of position players. Which, to be clear, makes them really good! We got some luck when we needed some luck, when our pitching was terrible, and hopefully we either stay running hot or our acquisitions and improving health on the pitching side counteract our offensive results falling back into line. 

You’re not wrong, it’s just interesting how we’re worried about regression with Bregman, Nico, Swanson, Busch and Happ having slightly down years offensively to varying degrees, yet nothing significant, while showing signs of life in the second half. It’s choosing between positive regression from years of data of solid offensive production (albeit 3 of them are  in their early 30’s) or negative regression based on expected stats. 
 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

These numbers scare me a bit.  We have an offense primed to regress overall. 

There’s a high probability that they won’t maintain their 6 runs/game pace since June 11th. PCA is to thank for that. 

[Bertz]

We've gotta stop these early June arbitrary endpoints every year

Cubs have probably been a smidge lucky this full year, but not anything worth fretting over.  They're due like maybe a bad series full of at'em balls.

- Wrigley has played slightly hitter friendly this year.  Just 2 points of wOBA, but when we're talking about 12 being "missing" it's worth noting

- Cubs lead the league in pulled fly balls, which helps you overperform this measure

- Cubs are 10th in the league in sprint speed, which also lets you overperform (more infield hits, more extra bases on hits to the outfield)

- Cubs are 3rd in the league in wOBA, tied for 5th in xwOBA.  Even if for simplicity's sake we zero out the entire gap it does not exactly become a paper tiger scenario

[Geographyhater8888]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

- Cubs are 10th in the league in sprint speed, which also lets you overperform (more infield hits, more extra bases on hits to the outfield)

I’m pretty sure xwOBA does factor in sprint speed on weak infield hits but not outfield hits. PCA stretching a single into a double isn’t measured. 

[squally1313]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

We've gotta stop these early June arbitrary endpoints every year

Cubs have probably been a smidge lucky this full year, but not anything worth fretting over.  They're due like maybe a bad series full of at'em balls.

- Wrigley has played slightly hitter friendly this year.  Just 2 points of wOBA, but when we're talking about 12 being "missing" it's worth noting

- Cubs lead the league in pulled fly balls, which helps you overperform this measure

- Cubs are 10th in the league in sprint speed, which also lets you overperform (more infield hits, more extra bases on hits to the outfield)

- Cubs are 3rd in the league in wOBA, tied for 5th in xwOBA.  Even if for simplicity's sake we zero out the entire gap it does not exactly become a paper tiger scenario

Yeah I agree with all of this. I was probably a touch too low on their offensive talent above. Suzuki, Happ, Bregman are probably half a step below where we’d thought they’d be, but we’ve basically eliminated weak spots and PCA became a unicorn. The output will come and go, but it’s a very good group of players. 

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m pretty sure xwOBA does factor in sprint speed on weak infield hits but not outfield hits. PCA stretching a single into a double isn’t measured. 

Sprint speed is only considered for "topped" and "weak" contact on the infield, correct. So while it can add things in to it's equation it is only very specific hit types and in a general sense it's widely agreed that players who are fast will tend to out wOBA their xwOBA, regardless. 

(You just happened to stumble upon a subject I did a decent amount of research on today as I worked on a piece about Pedro Ramirez)

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Sprint speed is only considered for "topped" and "weak" contact on the infield, correct. So while it can add things in to it's equation it is only very specific hit types and in a general sense it's widely agreed that players who are fast will tend to out wOBA their xwOBA, regardless. 

(You just happened to stumble upon a subject I did a decent amount of research on today as I worked on a piece about Pedro Ramirez)

So like Willy mays Hayes leadoff single versus PCAs rbi single on a bad throw versus the Royals on Friday night?