Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-31-26

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 7:08 pm
Knoxville vs. Pensacola, 6:00 pm
South Bend at Lake County, 6:00 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Charleston, 6:05 pm
DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Cubs Red, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Edward Cabrera (rehab)
Knoxville: RHP Luis Martínez-Gómez
South Bend: RHP Kohl Franklin
Myrtle Beach: RHP Emilio Ramos

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Looking forward to see if LMG can build on that crazy outing he had.

[Bertz]

Kepley needs to be either in Tennessee or another org come Tuesday 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Off a lefty

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just now, Bertz said:

Kepley needs to be either in Tennessee or another org come Tuesday 

As a non-believer, I hope they cash in on hIm this TDL with a valuation similar to BA ranking him top 100.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another Snell dong.

Cepeda with one too.

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

As a non-believer, I hope they cash in on hIm this TDL with a valuation similar to BA ranking him top 100.

100%

Love seeing this Snell hot streak too.  I was high on him in ST so hopefully it was a "not wrong, just early" situation

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 43 pitches - Ty Blach let 2 of the runs in

[Bertz]

Glad to see he has the post-blister velocity right from the jump

[Funky-daddy]

What’s the story on Southsiene? Another no power contact guy ? We seem to really be churning them out. Will be very interested to see Kepley’s path 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Can Josiah teach Happ?

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

What’s the story on Southsiene? Another no power contact guy ? We seem to really be churning them out. Will be very interested to see Kepley’s path 

It's definitely been zero power production to this point, though the little bit of exit velo data we've gotten on him has been decent and not indicative that he's physically limited to the extent of e.g. Nick Madrigal.

But it's been very good production from a 20 year old who it sounds like should be able to stick at shortstop (though maybe be more comfortably plus at 2B). 

0 homerun power is a non-starter in the big leagues, but if a little more physical development plus a little bit more lift+pull in the approach can get him up to 5-10 homers a year the rest of the package is pretty attractive.  Like Xavier Edwards doesn't feel like an unreasonable outcome?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

45 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Can Josiah teach Happ?

Really though, why would he be doing this?

[profisme]

9 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Really though, why would he be doing this?

I like it. There are certain pitchers who have reverse splits. I seem to recall some switch hitters who chose to hit lefty off of Tom Glavine (I think). It would be a bit early to give up on switch hitting. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[chopsx9]

1 hour ago, profisme said:

I like it. There are certain pitchers who have reverse splits. I seem to recall some switch hitters who chose to hit lefty off of Tom Glavine (I think). It would be a bit early to give up on switch hitting. 

I remember seeing it with Glavine and a couple other LH pitchers, Wasn't it generally against LHP who threw changeups?

[JBears79]

Hartshorn has to be off limits, right? The bat looks way too special right now to consider moving him. 

Edited 10 hours ago by JBears79

[craig]

13 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

As a non-believer, I hope they cash in on hIm this TDL with a valuation similar to BA ranking him top 100.

That's logical.  To trade a top-100 prospect and get top-100 value in return, that would seem fair.   I think it's fun that the Cubs have a good team where we can actually have very good prospects that I can view as surplus and it won't break my heart to trade them.  Kepley, Rojas, Shaw, these are good prospects, but if one of them goes, it doesn't crush my future imaginations.  But I'm sure not wanting to trade him for some Freddy-Peralta-caliber rental, that's for sure.  Better get some real value that is appropriate for a top-100-ish prospect.  

[craig]

Kepley trade:  Good logic in trading now, while he's top-100-ish bubble and has that value level.  

I wonder if waiting might actually be smart?  Holding till later risks that value will decline in upper-minors.  But *IF* he hypothetically sustains in AA/AAA, he'd be a big-league-ready piece, which comes with higher trade value.  (Same question for most A-ball prospects.  Trade them before they're exposed, or hold them in case they aren't,  in which case big-league-ready jumps trade value.). 

I'm a semi-believer?  I think Kepley's slug this year has raised his stock.  .420 slug and .162 ISO, 7HR in 326AB, those aren't bad.  Kepley's only 22; guys sometimes get stronger and slug better at 22 and beyond, and hit better too.  And his OBP is so good, even if it drops 30 points next year, a .400-OBP in AA/AAA still looks real-prospect-ish?  

One puzzle is his BABIP.  It isn't high, only .293.  Not sure if the .293 is bad luck, or a reflection of hitting quality.  Give him a .325 BABIP, that would add an extra ≥20 points to average, slug, OBP, and push OPS >.900. 

Probably the modest BABIP is not bad luck, but is intrinsic to walk-oriented approach.  Lots of 2-strike B-hacks, that's not the path to big BABIP.   Don't get to 94 walks in 326 AB without putting yourself into lots of 2-strike counts. 

 

 

[JBears79]

I can go either way on Kepley. We need power hitters in the COF after Happ and Seiya leave but I do think there is a way Kepley can fit onto this roster in the future. He seems like a guy Jed would love to have on this roster off the bench.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, JBears79 said:

I can go either way on Kepley. We need power hitters in the COF after Happ and Seiya leave but I do think there is a way Kepley can fit onto this roster in the future. He seems like a guy Jed would love to have on this roster off the bench.

I think your last sentence is exactly why I'm very pro-moving him. Kepley doesn't have a pathway here in Chicago beyond whatever concerns I have about swing choices and passivity. If he's a guy you'd love to have on your bench and a team views him as a guy they'd want to start? Sell, baby, sell. We can find "bench OF'er" without much issue. So if someone wants to treat a guy you probably want on your bench like he's a top-100 type you drive him to the airport.

[JBears79]

45 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think your last sentence is exactly why I'm very pro-moving him. Kepley doesn't have a pathway here in Chicago beyond whatever concerns I have about swing choices and passivity. If he's a guy you'd love to have on your bench and a team views him as a guy they'd want to start? Sell, baby, sell. We can find "bench OF'er" without much issue. So if someone wants to treat a guy you probably want on your bench like he's a top-100 type you drive him to the airport.

Yeah I can agree with that 100%. If I squint, I can see a world where he could win an OF spot and still be trade bait in the future if Jed is gung ho on keeping him for now. I have so many questions on their plans for OF in the future right now but Id gladly give him up for pitching right now if someone wants him. Just saying I can see the argument both ways. Certainly would not be upset if we kept him

[JunkyardWalrus]

Yeah, this TDL should give, theoretically, a hint at what direction they are going in RF next year (I firmly believe if they offer Happ a QO, he’ll take it and be back in LF doing what he do. Seiya might as well, considering if there is a lockout, he’d still get paid. I don’t imagine FAs do?)

CC seems to be sour on Alcantara, ONKC is gone, Hartshorn and Kepley are both a bit away.

Does anyone believe Shaw is a good answer for RF next year? 

[craig]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

I can go either way on Kepley. We need power hitters in the COF after Happ and Seiya leave but I do think there is a way Kepley can fit onto this roster in the future. He seems like a guy Jed would love to have on this roster off the bench.

 

1. Kepley might perhaps become a good starter?  If he's hitting 12-15 HR's with >.380 OBP and 50 SB, that plays as starting COF?  [Happ is slugging .421, Kepley .420 (plus the 50 steals).]  
2. Happ will get older and decline.  Replace him sooner or later, whether inside or an outside guy.  Inside prospect, whether that be Kepley or Conrad or Hartshorn (or Ramirez or Shaw) will cost less $$ than a big-ticket FA; $$ saved might perhaps be better spent for pitching?
3. Kepley can get traded later, if not now.  Value might improve by waiting.  (Or not.).  Perhaps significantly.
4. Win-win.  Having good players is always nice.  He's a good prospect now, and may be a good player later.  If traded for value, whether now or later, that could be great.  If kept, and he becomes a good starter, great.  If kept, and he becomes a high-end 4th outfielder, that could be really useful too.  Lots of good outcomes possible.

[Jason Ross]

Shelby Miller threw today. 1 IP, 4 K (not a typo)

He was so quick in striking out the three that they agreed to give him another hitter. He struck him out, too.