Brewers (Harrison) vs Cubs (Cabrera): 5/20/26, 6:40pm

[Geographyhater8888]

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Correct, but here's the thing: Suzuki isn't going to be the only injury the Cubs are going to suffer between today and the end of the year on the position player side. Shaw will take a decent amount of PA's, if not the bulk of the PA's (infield) when that happens. So sure, if no one gets hurt he will average 1.5 PA's or whatever, but we know that won't happen.

That’s true. Hopefully Bregman’s injured toe is a catalyst for extra at bats for Shaw, because I’d feel a lot better about Bregman’s lack of slug If it’s as simple as an unhealed injury.

[Jason Ross]

 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Just to add context, while the Cubs had a .523 wOBA on balls hit 90+ MPH on line drives and fly balls over the last three weeks, that's fifth worst in baseball and league average on those is .100 points higher. They've been decidedly unlucky in this fashion. 

[Dfan25]

Offensively o think they will be fine . Pitching , I am less optimistic . Brewers will continue to be a problem . They just know how to put together pitching staffs . Contreras is healthy , Chourio is healthy , Yelich is back and Bauers looks to be in the early stages of a breakout .

 

If Harrison is all of the sudden a top of rotation arm , Cubs are in a bit of trouble . Misiorowski and Harrison is like prime Peralta and Woodruff again with lots of control left still .

[chibears55]

The 2-5 in the order not getting it done

Edited 21 hours ago by chibears55

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

The 2-5 in the order not getting it done

Again, you're making judgements without all the information.  How many chances have they had vs the others on this list?  I bet it's more, and in some cases, a lot more.

[Old Style]

YES! We have 4 of the top 7 in baseball! Wait, this isn’t a good thing???????

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Again, you're making judgements without all the information.  How many chances have they had vs the others on this list?  I bet it's more, and in some cases, a lot more.

Not to mention, these numbers are not predictive. Last year Ian Happ hit better with runners on and better yet with runners in scoring position than he did bases empty. Same in 2024. 

No-context statistics lists like this breed anger for no reason other than to rage bait and create content interaction on social media. 

[PeanutPunch33]

When the Cubs are struggling, the implication is always that they are just unlucky and things are fluky and it's no big deal because the sample size is small.  Of course, the reason can never be that they might just not be as good of a lineup as we think.  

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

When the Cubs are struggling, the implication is always that they are just unlucky and things are fluky and it's no big deal because the sample size is small.  Of course, the reason can never be that they might just not be as good of a lineup as we think.  

I literally posted data showing them being unlucky. Both a tweet from someone and then fact checking it, showing the Cubs wOBA on solid contact balls in the air is a full .100 points lower than league average, despite hitting a lot of them. That's bad luck. It's baseball, luck is apart of the game, but it doesn't make it untrue. 

If you'd like to provide any data for why the Cubs offense *isn't* as good as we think, be my guest. 

I'm also more than willing to point out luck in the other direction. Right now, the offense isn't bad. It's snakebitten. It's okay to admit bad luck is real, just like good luck is real. Example: two 10 game winning streaks amist all of the injuries was good luck. 

[Outshined_One]

8 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

When the Cubs are struggling, the implication is always that they are just unlucky and things are fluky and it's no big deal because the sample size is small.  Of course, the reason can never be that they might just not be as good of a lineup as we think.  

That's why we have advanced stats and metrics.  Sometimes it's bad luck, sometimes they just suck, and those metrics can help suss things out.

Right now, the stats and metrics suggest it's been more bad luck than sucking.  That tracks for a team that's had two ten game winning streaks before the month of June.

[macarthur31]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Not to mention, these numbers are not predictive. Last year Ian Happ hit better with runners on and better yet with runners in scoring position than he did bases empty. Same in 2024. 

No-context statistics lists like this breed anger for no reason other than to rage bait and create content interaction on social media. 

Perhaps an alternative: wRC+ with RISP, minimum 30 PA, 247 qualified batters:

• Suzuki, 19 in 50 PA, 14th worst
• Matt Shaw: 44 in 32 PA, 26th worst
• Alex Bregman: 48 in 62 PA, 28th worst.
• Ian Happ: 72 in 68 PA, 56th worst
• Dansby Swanson: 75 in 58 PA, 65th worst
• Nico Hoerner: 83 in 61 PA, 79th worst

 

On the flipside, here's who is comin' thru:

• Kelly, 155 in 50 PA, 53rd best
• Ballesteros, 144 in 33 PA, 69th best (noice)
• Busch, 133 in 62 PA, 82nd best

 

 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, macarthur31 said:

Perhaps an alternative: wRC+ with RISP, minimum 30 PA, 247 qualified batters:

• Suzuki, 19 in 50 PA, 14th worst
• Matt Shaw: 44 in 32 PA, 26th worst
• Alex Bregman: 48 in 62 PA, 28th worst.
• Ian Happ: 72 in 68 PA, 56th worst
• Dansby Swanson: 75 in 58 PA, 65th worst
• Nico Hoerner: 83 in 61 PA, 79th worst

 

On the flipside, here's who is comin' thru:

• Kelly, 155 in 50 PA, 53rd best
• Ballesteros, 144 in 33 PA, 69th best (noice)
• Busch, 133 in 62 PA, 82nd best

 

 

This adds some context but probably still isn't a great representation. Many data points don't hit "stabilizing" (aka taking out just dumb, random luck) until you get to 50, 100, or even more PAs. 

Truly, 30 PAs just isn't enough for these data sets to matter outside of curiosities. 

So much so, I wouldn't even really factor them into discussing player value. 

[macarthur31]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This adds some context but probably still isn't a great representation. Many data points don't hit "stabilizing" (aka taking out just dumb, random luck) until you get to 50, 100, or even more PAs. 

Truly, 30 PAs just isn't enough for these data sets to matter outside of curiosities. 

So much so, I wouldn't even really factor them into discussing player value. 

To your point, if you go with 2025 numbers in RISP wRC+ (296 hitters with at least 70 PAs):

• Seiya Suzuki, 168 in 180 PA.  15th best
• Nico Hoerner.  148 in 172 PA.  36th best
• Michael Busch.  146 in 141 PA.  41st best
• Ian Happ.  122 in 170 PA.  110th best
• Carson Kelly.  110 in 134 PA.  138th best
• PCA.  106 in 176 PA.  151st best
• Dansby Swanson.  74 in 174 PA.  249th best
• Matt Shaw 64 in 106 PA.  267th best

I'm also confident that Seiya is closer to 168 wRC+ than 19 wRC+.  

[Stratos]

Cubs are 2nd in OBP so lots of opportunities which is part of it, but 22nd in wRC+ with RISP and 24th in SLG with RISP.  They've still scored lots of runs.

Nico leads the team in RBI followed by Dansby.

[squally1313]

This is maybe over generalizing here, but everything discussed above is simultaneously valid evidence for why we’re only 9 games over 500 through 50 games and not, say, 11 or 12 games over, and good, predictive signs that we’ll score more runs in those situations in the future. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This is maybe over generalizing here, but everything discussed above is simultaneously valid evidence for why we’re only 9 games over 500 through 50 games and not, say, 11 or 12 games over, and good, predictive signs that we’ll score more runs in those situations in the future. 

That all it is, theyve had plenty of opportunities to be better than where their at the past 50 games but because of injuries and alot of leaving opportunities on the bases from the offense that could of helped them win a few more games, they are where they are.

We just need to hope these next 50 games they stay healthy and continue to get the same opportunities with guys getting on base and come through more often then not to hopefully win games.

Those guys are the heart of the lineup that supposed to produce runs, we seen the stats that was posted the other day what theyve done with RISP and it wasn't good, so this chart shouldn't be a surprise.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This is maybe over generalizing here, but everything discussed above is simultaneously valid evidence for why we’re only 9 games over 500 through 50 games and not, say, 11 or 12 games over, and good, predictive signs that we’ll score more runs in those situations in the future. 

Yeah, it's a very good offense.  It's 5th in runs now and ended 5th last year.

The pitching staff has performed below-average according to FIP but there's been lots of injuries and the defense has made it play up.  Pitchers are getting healthier. Hopefully Maton does better, we need RHP for the 7th and 8th inning.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'm hoping when Wiggins is healthy they just give up on starting for a year and let him reinforce the pen. Could be a huge weapon.

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I literally posted data showing them being unlucky. Both a tweet from someone and then fact checking it, showing the Cubs wOBA on solid contact balls in the air is a full .100 points lower than league average, despite hitting a lot of them. That's bad luck. It's baseball, luck is apart of the game, but it doesn't make it untrue. 

If you'd like to provide any data for why the Cubs offense *isn't* as good as we think, be my guest. 

I'm also more than willing to point out luck in the other direction. Right now, the offense isn't bad. It's snakebitten. It's okay to admit bad luck is real, just like good luck is real. Example: two 10 game winning streaks amist all of the injuries was good luck. 

From march-April in 31 games: 8th in xWOBA at 331, 2nd in wOBA at 348 and a 123 wRC+. May though 19 games: 10th in xWOBA at 325, 24th in wOBA at 297 and an 89 wRC+. That tracks. 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

When the Cubs are struggling, the implication is always that they are just unlucky and things are fluky and it's no big deal because the sample size is small.  Of course, the reason can never be that they might just not be as good of a lineup as we think.  

They were also on the lucky side of batted ball data in the first month. They have very similar expected stats in both April and May yet vastly different results. That’s just baseball and the law of averages.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

Game starts in 90 minutes. No game thread? @Brock Beauchamp

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Game starts in 90 minutes. No game thread? @Brock Beauchamp

On it, thanks.