What Should the Cubs Do with Kevin Alcantara?

[Cory Sparks]

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Kevin Alcántara is, at least superficially, posing a good problem for the Chicago Cubs. He's on a power binge for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs this spring. Let's dig into his numbers, and the choices the Cubs have with him.

Background
If you've been tracking Alcántara's career closely, you already know what his ceiling looks like, but you also know ho9w stubbornly far beneath it he's remained over the last few years. What was missing, to achieve that metaphorical ascent? A literal one. That's what Alcántara's achieving this spring. He's finally launching the ball. There's no slug on the ground, so he's taken his swing and his batted-ball profile to where there's a ton of it.

Season	Avg. LA	Ground %	Line Drive %	Fly Ball %	Pop Up %	Pull %	Center %	Oppo %
2024	5.3°	51.7	25.3	18.4	4.6	48.3	21.8	29.9
2025	9.5°	46.2	24.9	23.3	6.3	40.3	23.7	36
2026	16.9°	32.8	15.6	39.1	12.5	35.9	39.1	25

Alcántara slugged just over .700 on contact in each of his two previous season stints in Triple-A. This year, that number is a mind-boggling (and, admittedly, unsustainable) 1.078. He's become an elite producer of power, at least at the Triple-A level. There's just one problem, and it's exactly what you'd guess, if you've been tracking Alcántara's career closely.

Season	O-Swing	Z-Swing	Z-Contact	Whiff Rate
2024	32.1	62	80	31.8
2025	31.7	61.3	82.7	30.5
2026	35.1	61.1	73.6	38.6

To get to his power, Alcántara has sacrificed contact, in a profile that had no room for that tradeoff. He's striking out at a rate that would preclude a player from succeeding in the majors, and he's doing it against worse pitchers than they have in the majors. The implication, then, is that he'd strike out over 40% of the time in the big leagues. That's Brett Jackson territory. Alcántara still has to find the happy medium, where he's lifting the ball but can also control the strike zone and make consistent contact. Still, it's exciting to see just how much power he can generate when things go well.

He’s also an absolute ball hawk in the outfield, as his 60-grade fielding tool is the highest on his MLB Pipeline scouting report. So what choices do the Cubs have? Let’s go over them.

Promote Alcántara
They could promote ‘The Jaguar’, but that comes with some complications. A couple of moves have resulted in a domino effect that makes this guy’s point of entry a little tougher. For one, the team locked down one of the best third basemen in the game, Alex Bregman, for the foreseeable future. That pushes sophomore Matt Shaw into (mostly) a corner outfield role. When Shaw is in right field, Seiya Suzuki takes up the DH spot, and then there’s no room for Alcántara. Of course, Alcántara would be behind Moisés Ballesteros on anyone's DH depth chart, anyway, even if Suzuki weren't in the picture. With Ian Happ, Suzuki, Shaw and Ballesteros all playing reasonably well, there's no short-term path to playing time with the parent club.

Have Him Change Positions
This is a nice little dream, but not much of a potential reality. Alcántara doesn't have any of the skills to play an infield position other than first base, and all of those spots are locked down, anyway. If he could become a solid first baseman, he would fit neatly with Michael Busch as a platoon partner, but that puts a lot of pressure on him to mash lefties and make more contact. It's also far from a guarantee that he can simply slide to that very different position and be above-average. His best defensive fit could be as a platoon partner for Pete Crow-Armstrong, but Crow-Armstrong is the best defensive center fielder in baseball; you usually don't platoon players with that much value in their glove.

Keep Him In Iowa For a Little Longer
This is the obvious course of action. Beyond simply keeping their powder dry, letting Alcántara continue amassing playing time in Iowa encourages him to keep developing, and avoids ruffling the feathers of any veterans. Happ and Suzuki are both due to be free agents this fall, and it would be no surprise if both land elsewhere. If even one does, playing time will be available in 2027's Cubs outfield, and if Alcántara keeps fixing holes in his game, he could be a candidate for that job. While the team is healthy, though, keeping him in Iowa lets everyone involved stay in rhythm and play every day, and gives Alcántara time to solve that glaring swing-and-miss problem, if possible.

Trade the Surplus
The last option is to trade Alcántara. Obviously, it’d be great to have a talent of his caliber at Wrigley, but right now, there's almost no chance he would be better than Happ, Suzuki or even Shaw. Power brings mass appeal in 2026, and this guy has plenty of it. The strikeouts have been an issue, but there are plenty of teams who might give up something to gamble on the power potential in Alcántara's bat, especially given his solid defensive platform. 

Before dealing him, the team would have to feel some confidence that they could re-sign either Suzuki or Happ, or that Shaw can be a regular in a corner come next season. They can't afford to go spend major free-agent dollars on multiple corner bats this winter, and the class looks thin, anyway. 

For now, Alcántara is an intriguing, enigmatic piece of the Cubs' organizational puzzle. His prospect stock could still skyrocket or plummet, but at the moment, it's holding in a middle range. The upside has never been more apparent. Neither have the warts ever been more prominently on display. There are a lot of ways to resolve this, but for now, the team's plan seems to be to do the obvious thing: wait and see what comes next, from Alcántara and others.

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[Bertz]

In the short term I think Alcantara has to be parked at Iowa.  There's just not playing time for him unless/until there’s an injury or Shaw goes into a tailspin.  It's also worth noting that he appears to still be developing, as the season progresses he is slowly clawing back the contact rate he sacrificed to juice his launch angle. Fingers crossed that trend continues.

Medium-long term I think Alcantara fits into the puzzle with the glut of infielders, and I'm hoping they find a way to keep him.  This winter you have Happ, Suzuki, and Kelly all hitting free agency.  So that's two full time outfield spots, plus whatever DH time is freed up by Mo presumably getting more time behind the plate.  You can't expect to hand all of that time off to the kids, but you can probably do 2/3s?

I think broadly there's a choice between Shaw and Alcantara for a full time OF spot, and then there's a choice between Shaw and Pedro Ramirez for the supersub role Shaw's currently in.  I'd probably go Alcantara/Ramirez, though there's a lot of time for that to change.  But broadly I envision something like this:

Out:

Happ, Kelly, Conforto, Shaw (trade)

In:

Suzuki (extended), Alcantara, Ramirez, another veteran LHH OFer

Again it's too early to get hung up on specifics but I really like the range of skills adding Alcantara and Ramirez to the roster brings, and at the same time I suspect Shaw would bring back a pitching haul.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

In the short term I think Alcantara has to be parked at Iowa.  There's just not playing time for him unless/until there’s an injury or Shaw goes into a tailspin.  It's also worth noting that he appears to still be developing, as the season progresses he is slowly clawing back the contact rate he sacrificed to juice his launch angle. Fingers crossed that trend continues.

Medium-long term I think Alcantara fits into the puzzle with the glut of infielders, and I'm hoping they find a way to keep him.  This winter you have Happ, Suzuki, and Kelly all hitting free agency.  So that's two full time outfield spots, plus whatever DH time is freed up by Mo presumably getting more time behind the plate.  You can't expect to hand all of that time off to the kids, but you can probably do 2/3s?

I think broadly there's a choice between Shaw and Alcantara for a full time OF spot, and then there's a choice between Shaw and Pedro Ramirez for the supersub role Shaw's currently in.  I'd probably go Alcantara/Ramirez, though there's a lot of time for that to change.  But broadly I envision something like this:

Out:

Happ, Kelly, Conforto, Shaw (trade)

In:

Suzuki (extended), Alcantara, Ramirez, another veteran LHH OFer

Again it's too early to get hung up on specifics but I really like the range of skills adding Alcantara and Ramirez to the roster brings, and at the same time I suspect Shaw would bring back a pitching haul.

One of the things that's been bouncing around in my head recently is "...could Pedro Ramirez be the solution in LF? Is he a Steven Kwan with less defense?" On one hand, he's not your traditional left fielder. Even with the power surge, I'm thinking he's a 15 HR guy if it sticks at the highest level. But he's probably athletic enough to handle the position, makes a ton of contact and he's a switch hitter. Frankly, he's very much what this team salivates over as a player. 

I know this is about Alcantara more than anything, but that idea kind of changes how I feel about Kevin, as well. 

[Bertz]

49 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

One of the things that's been bouncing around in my head recently is "...could Pedro Ramirez be the solution in LF? Is he a Steven Kwan with less defense?" On one hand, he's not your traditional left fielder. Even with the power surge, I'm thinking he's a 15 HR guy if it sticks at the highest level. But he's probably athletic enough to handle the position, makes a ton of contact and he's a switch hitter. Frankly, he's very much what this team salivates over as a player. 

I know this is about Alcantara more than anything, but that idea kind of changes how I feel about Kevin, as well. 

I suspect Pedro's bat and glove would be adequate in LF but not something you'd actively want out there.  So as a super-sub that's great, he would compliment Shaw and especially Alcantara really well.  And he'd also be good insurance in case one flat out fails.

But I don't think he can be plan A.  At least not in the next year or so.

[Named After Maddux]

 

58 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

One of the things that's been bouncing around in my head recently is "...could Pedro Ramirez be the solution in LF? Is he a Steven Kwan with less defense?" On one hand, he's not your traditional left fielder. Even with the power surge, I'm thinking he's a 15 HR guy if it sticks at the highest level. But he's probably athletic enough to handle the position, makes a ton of contact and he's a switch hitter. Frankly, he's very much what this team salivates over as a player. 

I know this is about Alcantara more than anything, but that idea kind of changes how I feel about Kevin, as well. 

This is where I'm at with it. Basically can the Cubs allocate one COF spot with Shaw and PRam and the other serving as the tenth man? That's my preferred route. KA could make sense as a backup OF as well, but he's in a tricky spot. He doesn't seem to generate much trade interest so it could just make sense to hold and let him hit LHP next year and in good match ups.

[Jason Ross]

51 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

 

This is where I'm at with it. Basically can the Cubs allocate one COF spot with Shaw and PRam and the other serving as the tenth man? That's my preferred route. KA could make sense as a backup OF as well, but he's in a tricky spot. He doesn't seem to generate much trade interest so it could just make sense to hold and let him hit LHP next year and in good match ups.

Alcantara also feels like he breaks the mold of what the FO prefers. Even more so this year. I love the power surge and the added LA but the team has tended to shy away from the idea of power-over-hit profiles. I won't say they're entirely immune to them, but they have held hard and fast to their hit-over-power profile prospects and have gone after Bregman and Tucker. How much of that is circumstance and how much is preference? Not entirely sure, but a trend seems to have emerged under Hoyer that I can't ignore. 

Bummer he doesn't get a lot of trade action from others because my hunch would be that the team would be cool with him being movable. Maybe moreso than others. 

Not sure I'm fully at a point where I've gone from wondering if Ramirez was an MLB starter at 2b to "I think his bat can play in LF" yet, but it's hard not to be intrigued with a switch hitting LF with his contact ability if the power is decent enough, too. 

[Tryptamine]

In short, it's time to cash in on that chip. If he can be the lead piece to get a young controllable arm, then great.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Alcantara also feels like he breaks the mold of what the FO prefers. Even more so this year. I love the power surge and the added LA but the team has tended to shy away from the idea of power-over-hit profiles. I won't say they're entirely immune to them, but they have held hard and fast to their hit-over-power profile prospects and have gone after Bregman and Tucker. How much of that is circumstance and how much is preference? Not entirely sure, but a trend seems to have emerged under Hoyer that I can't ignore. 

Bummer he doesn't get a lot of trade action from others because my hunch would be that the team would be cool with him being movable. Maybe moreso than others. 

Not sure I'm fully at a point where I've gone from wondering if Ramirez was an MLB starter at 2b to "I think his bat can play in LF" yet, but it's hard not to be intrigued with a switch hitting LF with his contact ability if the power is decent enough, too. 

I'd actually lean towards Alcantara being different than the guys we have on hand as being a plus in the FO's mind rather than a minus.  One of the biggest differences between the Hoyer Cubs and the Theo Cubs is the lineup diversity.  I'd also note that defense seems to win out vs. contact (looking at you, Dansby).

That suspect that matters more Re: Alcantara vs. Shaw than either vs. Pedro though.  As a switch hitting infielder he feels like he's a really good compliment to the current roster and wins any sort of fit debate almost by default.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'd actually lean towards Alcantara being different than the guys we have on hand as being a plus in the FO's mind rather than a minus.  One of the biggest differences between the Hoyer Cubs and the Theo Cubs is the lineup diversity.  I'd also note that defense seems to win out vs. contact (looking at you, Dansby).

That suspect that matters more Re: Alcantara vs. Shaw than either vs. Pedro though.  As a switch hitting infielder he feels like he's a really good compliment to the current roster and wins any sort of fit debate almost by default.

Yeah, I'm kind of in a weird spot with Kevin. There are aspects of his game I really like. Right now the K% is a concern, and more than that, the bottom barrel in-zone contact. Sadly, his chase numbers seem to be just as bad, but he's tanked his in-zone. I'm not willing to trash him entirely for it; I suspect with his swing change he's going through an approach change and with that, in-zone contact feels logical to be thrown off as a hitter learns to do that. 

Part of me sees a lot of Alexander Canario and Nelson Velazquez in the bat; lots of power with concerning amounts of in-zone contact. It's not really my favorite profile as a hitter. Obviously defensively he's got a bit of a different story in that he should be plus in a corner spot where as those two were not particularly defensive plusses in any way. 

Part of me sees his swing changes, his injuries last year, and thinks he's got a chance to be like the RF-version of Jose Siri but with a longer career? Running K% around 30, adding plus defense and base running and smashing 30 home runs and that's probably a 2-4 win player many years. 

One thing I'll be keeping an eye on is the trend of in-zone swing. If he gets back to that 50% percentile he was last year I'll feel much better about the Jose Siri in RF thing.

[JunkyardWalrus]

I don’t believe anything should be done with KA except let him continue to develop in AAA. The franchise is losing two OFs this off-season and he’s the top OF prospect and at AAA already.

Is there anyone else on the 40 man that can play CF if PCA misses any time?

[craig]

Simple:  let him continue to play/develop at Iowa.  That he's changes his launch angle, FB/GB, and HR frequency reflects that he's still in developmental phase.  Iowa remains good for trying to optimize swing decisions and contact capacity.  Leave him alone and let him develop.  

After that, it's kinda out of Cubs control? 

1. Will he improve enough to develop trade value?  If so, great, trade him.  But Kevin needs to earn a trade, and other teams to scout his value.  Cubs can't make him better or make teams want him, they just wait and hope.
2. Cubs also don't control Ramirez, Rojas, Triantos, Shaw, Kepley, Conrad, or what their trade values will be.  Decisions with Kevin are impacted by progress and Cub-analysis with those guys.  
3. HR's have value; Kevin has been good platoon.  *IF* he earns neither a trade nor a starting opportunity, having a bench/platoon future might work, who knows?  Again we wait and see over time.  No need to write him in as a starter or write him off if you don't.  
4. Guys with bad contact and long swings, that rarely goes away. Fair chance he'll never be more than a 4A, and the Cubs will never get much value.  But, only time will tell, so for now we wait and hope. 
5. We do have other internal options for starting, plus we have considerable spending capacity.  Between Seiya, Happ, and FA, there is no obligation to go with a prospect, *if* they don't have a prospect they like a lot.  And there are enough prospects that they can do some mix-and-match.  Likewise it's also possible that *IF* they go internal, that next year's guy doesn't need to be the long-term.  For example, maybe Conrad gets healthy and ends up being long-term guy, but isn't ready to even share a spot until next July or the following season.  Who knows?  

[JBears79]

I think Ramirez could play LF. He's athletic enough. 

I'm in the camp of keeping KA at least until the offseason. I see no reason to trade a prospect with his potential when we have two OF's hitting FA heading into 27. Let him spend the entire year in AAA again and have him get spot starts here and there with the big league team when someone inevitably has to miss a little time.