Alex Bregman Has Been Fine for the Cubs So Far. Is 'Fine' Good Enough?

When the Chicago Cubs signed Alex Bregman this winter, much of the narrative centered around his intangibles. Teams that employ Bregman simply win baseball games. While we may never know the extent to which this effect permeates through the clubhouse, it's hard to argue with the results. As the Cubs have ascended in the standings, though, Bregman's name is one we've heard little about. That brings us to the concrete.

From a more tangible standpoint, the book on Bregman was that he'd provide value based firstly on his approach. He doesn't walk a ton, but he doesn't strike out, either. He works a keen eye to hit himself on base, more so than to generate a free pass, with modest power in the offing. Through a touch more than 150 plate appearances, that's exactly what the Cubs have seen. 

Bregman has struck out just 15.4 percent of the time, which is better than every Cub regular not named Nico Hoerner (even if it is just a touch above his career average of 13.5%). He's walked at a steady 11.5% clip, too. The approach element of his game has remained intact, as Bregman's chase rate (18.2%) is elite and each of the whiff (17.5%) and strikeout rates are just a hair less than that. His 4.01 pitches per plate appearance sits comfortably above league average (3.90) and trails only Dansby Swanson's 4.21 P/PA for the top spot in the group.

Yet, one (ok, at least this writer) can't help but feel a sense of disappointment surrounding Bregman's performance in the early going. Perhaps that's something to do with the fact that he's still a below-average hitter by wRC+ (97) and has yet to demonstrate any semblance of power (.110 ISO). There's a touch of misfortune reflected in a .273 batting average on balls in play, but it otherwise feels like there's far more impact to be unlocked from the team's marquee signing of the offseason. A bit of extra elevation may be the key.

We already know that Wrigley Field is not a friendly environment for a right-handed hitter looking for power. But Bregman isn't looking for power in the traditional sense. He's looking for the gaps. However, it's hard to find the gaps when you're putting the ball on the ground more than 45 percent of the time, as Bregman has through his 156 plate appearances. Some of that is due less to the zone in which Bregman's swinging, and more to the types of pitches at which he's swinging. 

For the last four seasons, offspeed pitches yielded Bregman's highest ground-ball rates. That number has grown even higher this season, with a GB% of 64.3 against that pitch grouping. He's also swinging at offspeed stuff 45.5 percent of the time. Not only has he gone for an increase in volume of swings against the offspeed offerings, but he's also swinging less against each of the fastball and breaking pitch groups. 

There may also be a slight zone issue at play. This is Bregman's zone chart in 2026, illustrating Swing%: 

It's a decent enough distribution around various portions of the zone, but there's certainly a focus on the inner portion of it. Which becomes problematic when you consider where the groundballs are coming from: 

There's an easy conclusion to be drawn here: a higher volume of swings in a certain zone is going to beget a higher volume of groundballs. But one doesn't have to lead to the other. When you factor in the number of offspeed pitches at which Bregman is swinging versus his history of outcomes against that pitch type (and get to the fact that he's pulling ground balls at a rate that is currently a career high (24.8%)), it starts to feel like there's something in the approach that's pinning him down. Simply put, he's not in a groove and on time, just yet.

While Bregman may very well be offering what the Cubs were hoping to get in the broad scheme of things, there's another level to be attained, and they need to see him attain it. Bregman isn't here to drive the offense from strictly a power standpoint, but eventually, they need him to deliver a bit more power. Once he reaches that point, whether by this adjustment or another, the Cubs will get closer to seeing a fully-realized version of Alex Bregman in their lineup.